In a massive market, some of the most interesting battles are held in the margins. Although we’re still a few weeks out from full-year sales reports being published, it seems like we could be in for an interesting set of winners and losers once year-end EV sales data is in. American-market Tesla sales are reportedly slightly down through October, and there’s now a serious risk that the Cybertruck might not be pulling enough weight for Tesla to actually deliver year-over-year sales growth. Speaking of stalling, it turns out that the Hemi V8 isn’t dying at Dodge this year after all. Who could’ve seen this coming?
Well, anyone who read the sales charts and saw the departure of Carlos Tavares as a sign. Oh, and new car sales are expected to be up overall this year — a little bit of good news that we can all appreciate.
Welcome back to The Morning Dump. Matt’s out this morning and I’ve been trusted with taking over, so with the holidays growing ever closer, make yourself a cup of cocoa, pull up a seat, and get ready for some automotive news you need to read.
The Hellcat Gets A Stay Of Execution
With 2025 around the corner, the availability of V8 engines is set to disappear from Dodge’s lineup for good, right? Well, not quite. Dodge just announced that production of Durango SUVs with the 5.7-liter Hemi V8 and 6.2-liter supercharged Hellcat V8 will continue into 2025, a change of plans compared to a statement in January that 2024 would be “the final calendar year of V-8 HEMI® engine production for the Dodge Durango.” So much for “Last Call”, huh?
The truth is, Dodge needs the Durango SRT Hellcat more than ever. This is a brand that built its modern foundation on brawny V8s, and the latest pivot away from that has been met with a certain degree of hostility. The Charger Daytona EV hasn’t exactly received thoroughly glowing reviews (though our Sam A. liked it), while the Hornet compact crossover continues to be a slow-selling product in its class. For traditionalists, the Durango Hellcat is the apex of Mopar performance right now, and although it’s not a muscle car per se, the malevolent reputation of that 6.2-liter supercharged V8 means it’s indisputably Dodge’s halo product right now. Sure, the Charger Daytona Scat Pack Stage 2 may be quicker, but the 717 horsepower in the Durango SRT Hellcat is more than the 670 in the brand’s new EV.
Perhaps as a result, the Durango was the best-selling Dodge product in the third quarter by a country mile. No, really, Dodge sold 26,559 vehicles in Q3, 3,848 of which were Hornet crossovers, 5,104 of which were leftover 2023 Chargers, 3,657 of which were leftover 2023 Challengers, one of which was a Dart for some freaking reason, and 13,949 of which were Durangos — which is 14 years old, having entered production in 2010. I’m not normally one to make predictions, but with the pace of Hornet sales, the dwindling supply of leftover 2023 Chargers and Challengers, and questions over the new Charger Daytona’s market acceptance, killing the Hemi Durango may very well have left Dodge outsold by Chrysler, which shifted 21,504 Pacifica minivans in Q3. Indeed, Dodge claiming it’s extending V8 Durango production “Due in part to market demand and customer feedback” adds some credibility to this theory.
It also helps that Dodge was already cranking out 2025 model year Durangos, meaning these engines were already homologated for the 2025 model year. Saying ‘screw it’ to the previous plan of a Dec. 31, 2024 phase-out and going into the new year just makes sense if basically everything is paid for. Plus, with Carlos Tavares out of the picture, it’s likely Stellantis management is more willing to let this one slide. However, there is one Durango that won’t see production extended — the 6.4-liter SRT 392 model will say goodbye when the calendar flips around to 2025.
Tesla’s Sales Growth Might Finally Be Stalling
It helps to get a read on the near future of battery electric vehicles by looking at what the leaders in the segment are doing, and the leader in North America by volume is Tesla. However, 2024 might not be the year Tesla was hoping for, with a high possibility of sales remaining flat. In fact, Reuters reports that independent data claims Tesla sales are actually dipping slightly.
Still, data from S&P Global Mobility showed Tesla’s U.S. registrations as of end-October fell to about 500,000 vehicles, down about 7% from the year-earlier period. The decline was partly due to a fall of 32% in Model 3 registrations, and to a 24% drop in Model S luxury sedans.
Alright, so a reported sales decline of 32 percent for Tesla’s second-most popular model really isn’t great, especially given that the Model 3 received a substantial facelift earlier this year and is now a significantly better car than it used to be. If sales for the Model 3 and Model S remain steady for Q4, that means Tesla will be leaning on the Cybertruck to bolster Model Y sales. How’s that going?
Tesla does not break out sales of Cybertruck – but the S&P data showed U.S. registrations of the pickup falling to 4,335 in September and 4,039 in October, from 5,428 in August. Through October, the total was 31,451. Analysts at Bernstein expect 50,000 of them by the end of the year.
“The Cybertruck is not doing enough to bring the brand up,” said Tom Libby, S&P Global Mobility’s associate director of industry analysis.
Ah, that’s not good. Don’t get me wrong, a forecast of 50,000 units by the end of 2024 isn’t nothing, Cybertruck sales now seem to be outperforming F-150 Lightning sales, and Tesla expanding Cybertruck sales to Canada in November will likely help global Cybertruck deliveries, but this doesn’t quite seem to be the mass-market success Tesla was going for.
So what’s going on? Well, several things. For Tesla at large, the brand’s leaned on Elon Musk’s public image for over a decade as its big marketing asset, and that public image has grown increasingly controversial. Even setting aside the purchase of Twitter for a second, most car company CEOs don’t publicly and aggressively align themselves with one political party, but that’s exactly what Musk has done, deepening ties with the incoming administration. Now, there are definitely other carmakers who are extremely active in lobbying, but Tesla seems to be the most visible thanks to the actions of the guy at the top. Understandably, this will be a turn-off for some customers, and an opportunity for some conquests for other automakers.
Then there’s what the Cybertruck has come to stand for in the general discourse. If a vehicle is a symbol of a culture war, don’t be surprised when divisive public opinion of that vehicle affects sales. Just as some people will be attracted to the Cybertruck due to what it supposedly stands for, lots of people are repelled for that very same reason. Not rocking the boat is usually good for sales, but the Cybertruck is threatening to tip the thing. Perhaps that contributes to reports of used Cybertrucks taking an average of 75 days to sell on CarGurus, although it’s also worth noting that sales of electric pickup trucks are somewhat slow in general.
Of course, affordability also plays a huge factor. People don’t have a ton of money to throw around right now, having been squeezed by inflation and the death of near-zero interest rates over the past few years. That softening demand is probably why Tesla is currently offering free Supercharging on Model S sedans, or advertising $299-per-month 36-month leasing with $2,999 down on the entry-level Model 3. Incentives shift units, and consumers can change their minds on things based on cost.
It’s also worth noting that Tesla currently faces stronger competition than ever. From General Motors’ big EV push to Ford having lowered Mustang Mach-E prices this year to almost every automaker offering at least one battery electric vehicle, shoppers have never had such wide-ranging choice. Heck, Tesla’s not even the only choice if you want a car that’ll connect to Tesla’s Supercharger network, as several companies including Ford, GM, Nissan, Polestar, Rivian, and Volvo already have access to Tesla’s charging infrastructure. Surely, that competition and a more equal playing field for Supercharger access will affect Tesla demand.
This all comes to a head with one big question: What happens if the line doesn’t go up? After all, Tesla’s main product isn’t a car, it’s a stock with a market cap that seems wildly detached from reality. People who started investing years after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis aren’t used to not seeing perpetual growth, and a chunk of Tesla’s value is driven by retail investors. I guess we’ll just have to wait until year-end numbers are out to see what happens. In any case, the likely result here is that overall growth will be distributed among the rest of the EV market. Not a bad time to be Hyundai or GM, right?
We’re On Track For A Pretty Good Sales Year
Alright, let’s cut the atmosphere of uncertainty and give a little levity to this edition of The Morning Dump with some news everyone can likely appreciate. New vehicle sales in America are widely expected to be up this year, with lower interest rates, an environment of urgency, and increased incentives all doing their parts to get butts into new cars. As Automotive News reports:
The U.S. new light-vehicle market is expected to end 2024 with sales just shy of 16 million vehicles, up from 15.6 million last year. Cox Automotive is projecting a tally of 15.8 million vehicles, while J.D. Power/GlobalData, Edmunds and AutoForecast Solutions each anticipate more than 15.9 million
Several hundred thousand units is a fairly significant increase, and it signals that new cars are becoming more affordable. It’s no secret that many automakers are subventing interest rates and adjusting trim mixes to focus a little more on value options now that the rampant trimflation of the early 2020s has largely run its course, and consumers seem to be reaping the benefits.
Even if you aren’t a new car shopper, more new cars being sold is a good thing. It means more cars are circulating in America’s fleet, and since many of those new cars displace other cars in driveways and garages across the nation, it should contribute to a boost in used car supply. More supply usually means lower prices if demand stays consistent, so as long as 2025 continues this building pace on the new car side, expect used cars to continue to get cheaper in the future.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
It’s a grey, snowy winter day in Toronto, which means it’s time for something a bit moody and ambient. The Ray J sample chop on Burial’s “Archangel” is still absolutely fantastic 17 years later, and hey, a Metal Gear Solid sample flip. How about that? It all adds up to a rich, exciting soundscape with brilliant tension throughout the track. Yeah, this one’s a certified classic.
The Big Question
The Durango might retain its V8 for another year, but beyond that, how much longer could you see Dodge keeping the Hemi for? Moreover, if you were Dodge, how would you drive desirability when you have a product plan to phase out V8s and a customer base absolutely hooked on them?
(Photo credits: Dodge, Tesla, Chevrolet)
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The HEMI and all V8’s should be kept forever because they are awesome and are wanted…and anyone telling anybody that they can’t have them can fuck right off.
The cYbErJuNkTrUcK is total TRASH just like all EV’s and Melon Husk/Leon Mush melonhead and Trump belong in jail or fuck off to Uranus ha ha
Gasoline forever!
The math on the Cybertruck sales doesn’t work for me:
“U.S. registrations of the pickup falling to 4,335 in September and 4,039 in October, from 5,428 in August. Through October, the total was 31,451. Analysts at Bernstein expect 50,000 of them by the end of the year.”
So, after seeing monthly sales trend 5,428 –> 4,335 –> 4,039 from August to October, they’re somehow going to move an average of 9,275 units/month in November and December to get from 31,451 to 50k? They’ll be lucky to get to 40k units on that trend, year-end specials or not.
We just picked up a replacement for my wife’s minivan and my (now totaled) GX470 and took a brief gander at the Durango R/T. Aside from the good sound, it offered very little or nothing over the competition from the interior design, quality, or styling (I personally have always thought it looked okay but not great). The prices on the Durangos make the value equation even worse, as the V8 is simply too expensive of a jump over the SRT-styled GT with the V6, which itself is too expensive. We ended up with a three year old, fully-loaded Honda Pilot for $8-10k less than a similar year/mileage V6 Durango and a full $15-18k less than a V8 Durango. The Pilot isn’t a looker either, nor does it sound as good as a V8, but it does everything else far better than the Durango – just like the Highlander, Telluride/Palisade, Explorer, and pretty much every other vehicle in that class. That’s especially true for the Grand Cherokee L – a much more attractive, modern design inside and out, complete with all the unreliability of the Durango but also with astoundingly bad depreciation on the used market. And I say all that as a multi-time Jeep owner who spent all of last Saturday swearing at my Jeep while trying to replace a bent tie-rod that got bashed in by a series of large boulders (that also took out the steering box, pitman arm, but blessedly missed the steering box mount).
With the proliferation of 4 cylinder turbos and 4 cylinder hybrids even in $70k SUV’s there are a lot of consumers like me who don’t want them. That’s the most profitable market for manufacturers and where the consumer want what they want. Smart manufacturers will want to take advantage of this smaller, but profitable market segment. Taveres really set Stelantis back by single handily killing the hemi when his staff said otherwise. The “brotherhood of muscle” marketing campaign was the coolest thing I have seen in years and they should have kept it and delivered highly profitable cars that many “car people” want.
With Tavares out and an incoming Trump admin I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a Hemi back in the new Charger, especially if the hurricane engined model flops.
More bad news for the people who want to have a Dodge heavy investment portfolio.
I’m thinking of the people who sued when the “last Durango Hellcat” really wasn’t the last.
HEMI. HEMI. HEMI. HEMI.
still not convinced a overly complex turbo six, in the real world, is better than a NA V8
And Cybertruck. Glad to see common sense is making a comeback.