It’s becoming clear Tesla has struggled in Europe, due at least in part to CEO Elon Musk’s politics, but will that become an issue here? Are there enough Musk supporters to outweigh the Musk haters? Can politics actually stop someone from buying a car they want?
Cox Automotive just released its Q1 automotive forecast and report, showing that Tesla has continued to lose share in a market that’s still expanding. Overall, Tesla sales in Q1 of 2025 in the US are projected to be around 138,867 vehicles, down 14.5% from Q4 2024 and 0.9% from Q1 2024.
Tesla is the only large automaker that doesn’t provide a detailed breakdown of its sales, which is why companies like Cox Automotive have to use alternative sources like registration data to come up with more granular sales estimates. Obviously, the quarter isn’t over, and Tesla could lower the price of a Model 3 to $50 and sell all of them, but this is the best data that’s out there at the moment.
According to Cox Automotive, the overall EV market is up 12% year-over-year through March, although off about 18% from its high point in Q4, when an increase in incentives and a potential fear over the loss of the IRA tax credit led to an increase in electric car purchases in the US.
It used to be that Tesla made up so much of the EV market (up to 79% at one point) that whatever happened to Tesla is what happened overall. That’s not the case anymore, as Tesla’s share of EV sales has dropped to less than half.
“Tesla now faces significant challenges in maintaining its market position,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, the Director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “The company is experiencing declining sales in the U.S., due to increased competition, an aging product lineup, and economic factors affecting consumer purchasing power. Additionally, controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk and the loss of exclusive access to the Supercharger network have impacted the brand’s image and competitive advantage.”
A new Model Y could help matters, and it’s possible some of the small Q1 downturn can be pinned on the factory switching over to production of the new model. Tesla has been discounting older models in its inventory as it readies for a new Model Y, which has probably helped sales. Can Tesla continue to do that and maintain its margin, or will it continue to shrink? We’ll find out when the company reports earnings next month.
Tesla has also moved down in KBB’s brand consideration amongst luxury buyers, who now rank it below Buick and Acura, though still ahead of Bentley and Lincoln. Data also confirms reports that people are turning in old Teslas, with listings up 33% year-to-date. Some of the trade-ins could be political, but some of this is also a reflection of the fact that Tesla’s sales increased a lot three years ago. Still, the increase in used listings noted by Autotrader is steep:
I’ll discuss more of this data in The Morning Dump tomorrow, but you can see how sales have dropped overall this quarter for most automakers. The automakers that saw bigger increases in market share were GM, which has been solid coming out of the pandemic, and Nissan-Mitsubishi, which has reversed a slide, thanks in part to strong incentives.
Top graphic images: Tesla; depositphotos.com
The commentary here has gotten a lot more political lately. And I don’t discourage the discourse. The direction this administration is taking the country is alarming and depressing.
But there are so many articles that are so funny and/or educational.
Thank you Autopian staff and commentors.
This is all very interesting but all I can think about is Elon Musk burning to death inside a self-incinerating Cybertruck whose doors automatically locked after a fender bender and he’s unable to retrieve a little cable from inside an innocuous hidden panel on the side of the rear door to manually open it and escape.
You know, just like his unfortunate customers…
Hopefully your mom doesn’t let you outside.