It’s becoming clear Tesla has struggled in Europe, due at least in part to CEO Elon Musk’s politics, but will that become an issue here? Are there enough Musk supporters to outweigh the Musk haters? Can politics actually stop someone from buying a car they want?
Cox Automotive just released its Q1 automotive forecast and report, showing that Tesla has continued to lose share in a market that’s still expanding. Overall, Tesla sales in Q1 of 2025 in the US are projected to be around 138,867 vehicles, down 14.5% from Q4 2024 and 0.9% from Q1 2024.
Tesla is the only large automaker that doesn’t provide a detailed breakdown of its sales, which is why companies like Cox Automotive have to use alternative sources like registration data to come up with more granular sales estimates. Obviously, the quarter isn’t over, and Tesla could lower the price of a Model 3 to $50 and sell all of them, but this is the best data that’s out there at the moment.
According to Cox Automotive, the overall EV market is up 12% year-over-year through March, although off about 18% from its high point in Q4, when an increase in incentives and a potential fear over the loss of the IRA tax credit led to an increase in electric car purchases in the US.
It used to be that Tesla made up so much of the EV market (up to 79% at one point) that whatever happened to Tesla is what happened overall. That’s not the case anymore, as Tesla’s share of EV sales has dropped to less than half.
“Tesla now faces significant challenges in maintaining its market position,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, the Director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “The company is experiencing declining sales in the U.S., due to increased competition, an aging product lineup, and economic factors affecting consumer purchasing power. Additionally, controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk and the loss of exclusive access to the Supercharger network have impacted the brand’s image and competitive advantage.”
A new Model Y could help matters, and it’s possible some of the small Q1 downturn can be pinned on the factory switching over to production of the new model. Tesla has been discounting older models in its inventory as it readies for a new Model Y, which has probably helped sales. Can Tesla continue to do that and maintain its margin, or will it continue to shrink? We’ll find out when the company reports earnings next month.
Tesla has also moved down in KBB’s brand consideration amongst luxury buyers, who now rank it below Buick and Acura, though still ahead of Bentley and Lincoln. Data also confirms reports that people are turning in old Teslas, with listings up 33% year-to-date. Some of the trade-ins could be political, but some of this is also a reflection of the fact that Tesla’s sales increased a lot three years ago. Still, the increase in used listings noted by Autotrader is steep:
I’ll discuss more of this data in The Morning Dump tomorrow, but you can see how sales have dropped overall this quarter for most automakers. The automakers that saw bigger increases in market share were GM, which has been solid coming out of the pandemic, and Nissan-Mitsubishi, which has reversed a slide, thanks in part to strong incentives.
Top graphic images: Tesla; depositphotos.com
My Google results are affected by my history, but the majority of returns for a search of “Nazi salute” feature Musks name or image. Car purchases are about style as much or more than function. Fewer people want to project an image of being aligned with that than last year’s image. Engaging in mental gymnastics to avoid acknowledging this is deception. Maybe self deception, but how is that any better?
Trumps new tariffs 25% on all imported cars and parts goes into effect April 3rd.
How many of his rich buddies knew this was coming ,sold off yesterday and today and will buy back next week the day before he decides to drop the tariffs?
This stinks to high heaven of manipulation of the market.
We will never know. The watchmen have been laid off.
If you follow the stock market and the announcements from the administration, they are directly linked. AKA, the administration is 100% controlling the stock markets right now. It does not take much. As long as the volume is under the radar, so-to-speak, no one will pay attention. I feel that is what is collectively happening for anyone who’s net worth is $1,000,000 or more.
Well Tesla is about to ride high as the new tariffs hobble the competish. Savvy Mux for the win. Love him, such genius.
Market manipulation is all it is.
He wouldn’t do that. No.
No , not him ,never.
/s
I have Tesla 18” Aero wheels mounted on my Accord (direct fit) to run summer tires. The shame is so profound/risky that I painted over the Tesla logo on the center caps. People have asked before if it is a Tesla because of the wheels. Since we apparently burn Teslas in my city, I’m not risking it.
I’m not proud of it, but I must admit I enjoy seeing Musk humbled financially. It’s a sign of these twisted times.
The liberals in my life would rather be set on fire than buy a Tesla.
The conservatives in my life would rather be set on fire than buy an EV.
Sooooo yeah. Sort of an uphill battle for what’s supposed to be a mainstream auto manufacturer.
Good analogy.
I believe you are absolutely correct!
Great place to be for Tesla. We will fully ignore the fact that the logo is meant to emulate Jesus on the cross.
Andrew Tate followers would be the perfect customers for the cybertruck
“Some of the trade-ins could be political”
Ya think?
https://victoria.craigslist.org/cto/d/central-saanich-free-tesla-please-come/7834363040.html
But they put 235,000km on it!!!! Wow!
Free Tesla, $2000
$2000 CAD so it’s basically free.
I bow to your cheepnis.
Tesla’s best future customer is the same one that would roll coal on them. Call their new model the Catch 22.
Everything going on at the moment carries the stench of MM Enterprises, so seems legit.
“You see we tariff the Germans 25%. They don’t mind, because they also tariff us 25%. Now we take our 25% tariff and we use that to pay the tariff on German goods, which really just eliminates the tariff. But we have our own tariff officers who get paid off of the 25% tariff as well. So really they get paid for free. And the Germans get to add to their GDP. It’s all simple, really.”
Good.
I know this is controversial, and there is a lot of hate for Elon, but if Tesla lowers the price of the Model 3 to $50, I would buy one.
To be honest, it would be hard for me to refuse any running, driving car for $50.
I’ve turned down running, driving cars offered for free on a couple of occasions although it’s true it wasn’t easy. It turns out “running and driving” is not necessarily a high standard to meet, even by my standards.
I just remembered that I once turned down a $100 car in 2019. Highly modified 90s Civic, all it needed was a hard rear brake line that required the fuel tank to be dropped. If I hadn’t lived in an apartment at the time I would have flipped it in a heartbeat, I could have really used the money back then too! It was a friend’s car that he just wanted gone as they were moving and he had moved on to another car.
I got a non-running Nissan 720 4×4 truck for free when I was in college. All it needed was a battery.
I certainly wouldn’t hold it against you.
just one?
A discount that deep could be considered a fire sale!
*sirens in the distance*
ikr. keep it to barter for a carton of eggs in a few months.
That would not include subscription services for tires, batteries, or a wireing harness.
Brave.
Fuck, if they were that cheap, I’d buy a couple just so I could light them on fire them for clicks. But first I’d change the gender of each one just to screw with Musky. People might be very confused by what message I was trying to send, but I’d find it hilarious to watch the right try to figure out if they should cheer or scream about Domestic Terrorism. It’d be worth a hundred dollars for sure.
“We’re losing $38,000 per unit but we’ll make it up in volume.”
I probably would too… and then promptly remove the Tesla badging and badge it as a “Pontiac G6”
I had this conversation with a work colleague. We were brainstorming ideas on which badging would be best to confuse the general public; some ideas were dead brands that someone might try to revive, like Pontiac, Eagle, AMC… or a Chinese brand that isn’t yet available in the states. I want a Datsun.
Go with Marmot.
“Go with Marmot.”
Why not Mercury?
I’ll see your Marmot and raise you an Hotchkiss. Or an Armstrong-Siddeley!
To me, Model 3 = Pontiac G6
And Model S = Pontiac G8.
Most people out there don’t know what the hell a Pontiac G6 or G8 is. Plus the brand was around recently enough that anyone could plausibly say:
“Yep… they only made a few of these before they cancelled the brand. Kind of like how the last year of Fiero GT didn’t look like all the others. That’s why you never see a Pontiac like this one before. And it kind of looks like a Tesla OBVIOUSLY because Tesla stole some of Pontiac’s last styling ideas… “
Model S Plaid = Pontiac GTFO
I would not.
At $50 it would be worth it to strip down and “upgrade” my 03 Civic Lx sedan, cheaper than a K swap!
I would buy 4 specifically for the batteries, and mount them to a wall in my house, and be FULLY off the grid forever.
I would then charge everyone $1 per baseball bat swing on the remaining chassis’, and donate that money to whatever cause Vivian Wilson suggests, PBS, and NPR.
“I’d rather push a [literally any car] than drive a Tesla.”
—Lots of People
Alright, someone has to start it.
Elon did Nazi this coming.
I know, reich?
For some reason, I’m imagining Hegseth finding out that reporter was on the text chain and all I can hear is “Vat is dis man doing here!?”
And in breaking news, coming out April 1st, they’re renaming the Plaid trim level the SS.
Free brown shirt with every purchase
It’s no question weird things are happening with Tesla sales. I’m not sure we will really see the whole picture for a while. It seems like there is a very vocal segment that definitely won’t buy another and are dumping the ones they have. It also seems like they are still selling them in a lot of markets. The previous model 3 inventory seems to be either gone or almost gone in a lot of markets as well. Their “coastal elite” market is probably toast though. They “sold out” of updated model y in a lot of states you don’t really think of as big Tesla areas. It could be a changing different demographic buying them.
If by “vocal segment” you mean rational and informed adults, then yeah. Their comp sales are absolutely tanking across the globe, and it’s not because inventory isn’t available or that “coastal elites” are not buying. There are active marketing campaigns across the EU and Britain discouraging people from buying because of Musk’s bullcrap.
Tesla is toast unless/until Musk is given the boot. And even then, who knows how their reputation will recover.
If they were rational or informed they probably wouldn’t be behaving like the residents of Salem, Mass circa 1692.
Witches aren’t real.
Nazis definitely are.
MSV and I were clearly talking about potential buyers and current owners. I’m not sure how you read our comments and came away thinking we were talking about vandals and arsonists?
Musk needs to spend more time coming up with better names for his children.
Or at least getting the children he already has to not hate his guts.
Their hatred might work in our favor down the line.
Yeah I suspect having all those kids is something he didn’t fully think through and it’s gonna bite him in the ass over the next decade or so.
Let’s hope so!
Probably difficult at this point – he has 14 right? Gotta spray that seed…
He sprays it in a cup, then the doctor makes his baby.
It’s the only option when it’s that small.
The whole no actual dealer/ one out the door price advantage is gone, sacrificed to the cavalier notions and injestions needed in support of the one true believer of self.
Still trying to understand who’s gonna buy ten trillion worth of robots.
Have you never watched an Anime? It’s going to be the Japanese.
Or maybe a world of old people who need assisted caregivers as seen in the movie Robot & Frank; though most of us are probably not former cat burglers who will teach our robots to pick locks.
BuzzAndWoody.gif
“Sexbots! Sexbots everywhere!”
Japan Inc. has no need for anything Tesla makes and never will as they seem to be far along in building and demonstrating actual robots and not just fever dream blatherings induced by horse tranqs.
Sticking simply to consumer buying habits with vehicles, there’s a high percentage of new car buy/lease folks that would simply upgrade to a newer version of what they had or a different model in the lineup… so if the models don’t change in a timely manner, why would one just buy/lease the same thing they want to give up?
Tesla needs to have those mid-cycle refreshes to maintain brand loyalty and be competitive in a suddenly busy market.
Brand loyalty is not the driver of sales it once was. It also doesn’t hold up well when current owners see their residual value suddenly drop several times because Slim Shady got worried about market share.
I think this has very little to do with mid cycle refreshes and more to do with everything that has Elon’s musk on it becoming radioactive.
Good one!
They changed the tech while keeping the body the same. A 2020 Model Y is nothing like a 2024 MY despite looking outwardly identical. That worked when the demographic was early adopter who was plugged into every change. They never moved past that. COVID didn’t help either.
This. Musk likes to make fun of automakers that have been at it for more than 100 years but there is a reason for the typical 3-4 year refresh / 6-8 year remodel. It lines up with the lease / loan cycle and almost everyone spending $$$$ for a new car wants it to physically look different than the old one.
There are three key things that have happened with Tesla that I think will have a huge impact on the company.
1. Elon’s politics. Enough said there. Elon isn’t going away, so his politics and their impact on sales won’t either.
2. No new designs. Many people, myself included, have been saying this for years. There would be a point where OEMs caught up in all the ways Teslas used to dominate. Well, they pretty much have, especially now that non-teslas can access the Supercharger network. And they have completely new designs and whole new models, hell, whole new model lines. The update to the 3 and Y is just a mid cycle refresh. I don’t think there’s many people who trade in a car just to get the refresh. And it’s not enough to stand out in the sea of new EVs. And let’s not forget China. They have an absolutely dizzying array of EVs from home-grown manufacturers. If you want the latest in EVs, Tesla is no longer the go to. Which brings me to…
3. The Cybertruck. It’s sort of a combination of the two factors above, but I’m including it separately. For one, it’s been so tied to Musk from the beginning that for many, it’s basically a sign that says “I love Elon Musk” (even if that is not the case for many owners). But, it’s a clear, visible reminder of Tesla and the negative perception the company has received as a result of Elon, in a way the other models are not. And people see them on the roads, often daily.
It was also a massive waste of resources. There was no way in hell they were going to sell 250k-500k of them a year (their projection) even at the price they were originally promised at. I don’t know if they’ll even sell 250k, ever. All the time and resources dedicated to the truck could have gone towards a new model or a full redesign of an existing one. Actually I’ll tack the Cybercab onto this as well. Maybe it’s getting investors excited, but as it’s designed now, it won’t succeed. Not enough sensors, and two seats?? Really? A new Model 3 or even a sensible pickup truck could have been a huge asset to Tesla right now.
Basically, they’re stuck with one of the most disliked people in the world as a CEO and no new products to offer people in a space that’s awash in new products.
The CyberTruck is an epic fail. They can’t even sell it in Europe or China, two of their biggest markets. And you are spot on that it just projects I love Elon Musk. It’s far better for an automotive company if the buying public doesn’t know who the CEO is. And more and more Americans are learning who Elon is and what he is doing. That’s way net negative.
I overtly thumbs down every single CT I see. Normally I wouldn’t do such a thing and would be more inclined to give such people the benefit of doubt, but when it comes to the CT, you might as well be driving a rolling Swastika and thus deserve opprobrium.
CT; The musk is strong with this one.
The Cybertruck was both overbuilt and underbuilt, and that is it’s downfall (beyond the politics).
Overbuilt: the whole SS body thing (no, not that SS). The general design is “too much”. The speed is too much. The power is too much for what it can do.
Underbuilt: cast bumpers falling off the truck, a bed this is only usable to hipsters, sparse interior, laughable off-road capability.
The F150 comes out of the showroom with two giant brass trucknuts attached to the back, while the Cybertruck’s balls are still receded.
I’d expect Tesla’s numbers to be worse. maybe since the data is off registrations, there is a month or 2 delay (Colorado has 60 days to register). also FELON didn’t really get started until after the inauguration so Jan numbers may be inflating overall numbers and a bigger drop is in Feb/Mar
They can also just lie their asses off and say they sold 420.69 million cars in Q1 because there is going to be zero consequences from any regulator.
Fake sales? yes. At least they can’t fake registrations but there is more of a lag in reporting. Q2 will show whats really happening.
or they will do what they did in Canada by registering the sale of 8K cars in 1 weekend
Good point. Before the inaugural, DOGE seemed like a good old fashioned blue-ribbon commission that would produce a report that would make a small splash on a summer weekend a few months before the midterm and then be forgotten.
But, wait, isn’t the Cybertruck selling 70,000-80,000 per quarter? I thought that’s what it was supposed to do
Make your core buying demographic mad and watch what happens. This is the Nazi version of the Osborne effect.
Everything is computer!
Ah, yes, go fash go crash (quite literally, what with the seemingly disproportionate incidents of Tesla mishaps and all.)
Though Musk indeed has *always* been like that, he’s just had really good PR and some good luck. He’s just been letting his true colors (in the form of a white hood and robe as well as a red, black, and white flag) show more and more lately.
It boggles the mind that there are still 1,500 people every single day who make the decision to buy a Tesla.
The MAGA turn has to be attracting some buyers. And they are throwing money on the hood for those that don’t really care what Elon does. Boggles my mind too, but a lot of Americans probably can’t really tell you who Elon is.
There are a lot of MAGAts and neo Nazis out there.
Probably less than the number who willfully consume opioids and don’t need them.
Hmmm, one of these doesn’t belong.
Gee, I wonder why? I hope sales of nazicars drop to zero. F! that guy.