Home » Either You Believe Elon Musk Or You Don’t

Either You Believe Elon Musk Or You Don’t

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It’s been a while since I’ve done a specifically Tesla- or Elon Musk-centered Morning Dump so I feel like I’m owed one. Elon Musk did another earnings call and, while the present is mixed, he made some big promises about the future. That’s what he does. He makes big promises and fulfills some of them. The promises are big enough that it only takes a few hits, though, to make him the richest person in the world.

Toyota is decently well-off as well, and a small slide wasn’t big enough to prevent the company from being the biggest one in the world again. How’d it do it? Hybrids, of course. Jaguar Land Rover is a little worse off as well, with profits falling in Q4 of 2024. Blame the pound.

Vidframe Min Top
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One thing that might impact sales here in the United States is the Fed’s decision to not lower interest rates, meaning that pressure will still remain on auto loans for the near term.

‘You Can’t Be A Toddler Forever, They Grow Up’ – Elon Musk

Tesla released its Q4 and full-year financials and, mostly as expected, the company’s numbers were down. The expectation from the market was that Tesla earned $27.26 billion in revenue at the end of last year and that the company’s earnings per share (eps) would hit $0.76. Instead, the company made just $25.71 billion, up slightly from last year, with an eps of $0.73 cents.

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Again, not a huge surprise here, as the company tried to maintain sales with a mix of older models and, unsurprisingly, net income dropped along with increased incentive spending. At the same time, Elon Musk has made investing in AI and other projects a big priority, so his company has been spending a ton of money. Tesla is not a car company in Musk’s view, it’s a technology company that makes cars.

Will shares suffer due to this miss? Probably not! It doesn’t seem like people buy Tesla based on underlying business fundamentals (you might notice, for instance, that a big chunk of income came from selling regulatory credits) but, instead, on what Musk says he will do. Musk said a lot of things. Lewin already wrote about Tesla’s plans to roll out some form of driverless taxi service in Austin this year. That’ll definitely help when your drunk idiot friends get you kicked out of The Ranch and you have to slink off to Coyote Ugly.

What else? Elon Musk said in October at the last one of these that it would be “silly” and “pointless” to build the rumored $25,000 Tesla. People keep asking about the car and CFO Vaibhav Taneja gave a sort of answer to that:

We are still on track to launch a more affordable model in the first half of 2025 and will continue to expand our lineup from there. From a dollar-for-dollar basis, we believe we have the most compelling lineup today compared to the industry, and it will continue to get better from here.

That’s something.

The big news is that Musk thinks that there’s a path where Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world, many times over. Here’s the quote, via The Motley Fool’s transcript:

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I see a path. I’m not saying it’s an easy path but I see a path of Tesla being the most valuable company in the world by far. Not even close, like maybe several times more than — I mean, there is a path where Tesla is worth more than the next top five companies combined. There’s a path to that.

I mean, I think it’s like…a difficult path but it is an achievable path. And that is overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous humanoid robots. So, our focus is actually building toward that. And then that’s where we’re laying the ground.

We laid the groundwork for that in 2024. We’ll continue to lay the groundwork for that in 2025. In fact, more than laying the groundwork, actually started building the structure. We’re building the manufacturing lines.

What does this mean? AI. Robots. FSD. Seriously, he’s big on FSD. Were you aware?

And I’d like — setting up for what I think will be an epic 2026 and a ridiculous ’27 and ’28, ridiculously good. That is my prediction. As you very few people understand the value of self-driving and our ability to monetize the fleet. Some of these things I’ve said for quite a long time, and I know people have said, “Well, Elon, the boy who cried like a wolf like several times.” But I’m telling you, there’s a damn wolf this time and you can drive it.

In fact, it could drive you. It’s a self-driving wolf. For a lot of people, like their experience of Tesla Autonomy is like if it’s even a year old, if it’s even two years old, it’s like meeting someone when they’re like a toddler and thinking that they’re going to be a toddler forever. But obviously not going to be a toddler forever.

They grow up. But if their last experience was like, “Oh, FSD was a toddler.” It’s like, well, it’s grown up now. Have you seen it? It’s like walks and talks. And that’s really what we’ve got.

I do appreciate that Musk here is at least conscious that he makes all these promises all the time. Just think of all the people who are still sitting on $50,000 deposits for a Roadster something like seven years later.

That’s just the way Musk works and, in the interim, he’s managed to make EVs profitably (which few have done), launched a bunch of rockets into space, and become best friends with the President. For better or worse, if you invest in Tesla you’re investing in the idea that Elon Musk’s management style and vision is eventually achievable. If Tesla becomes more valuable than the next five companies then a $400 share price is extremely low and buying more makes sense. Even if he’s not the Lisan al-Gaib are you really going to be mad if Tesla is only worth as much as the next four companies?

Up to this point, depending on when you got in as a Tesla investor, believing Elon Musk has likely paid off quite well.

Toyota Is Still The King Thanks To Hybrids

2025 Toyota Prius Nightshade 007

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The new Prius looks so good, right? The new Prii are unbelievable.

Last year, Toyota’s deliveries were down 3.7% globally if you throw in subsidiaries Hino and Daihatsu, reaching just 10.82 million in 2024. That still means Toyota is the king, having sold about a million more cars than Volkswagen, which dropped to just 9.03 million vehicles delivered last year.

The company can’t seem to build cars fast enough for the United States, and at least part of that decline is attributable to the fact that Tesla got hit with a bunch of recalls and stop-sales in North America. A massive certification scandal in Japan also didn’t help.

What Toyota did well, according to Automotive News, is sell a crap ton of hybrids:

Gasoline-electric hybrids comprised 43 percent of Toyota’s parent-company global volume, up from 34 percent in 2023. Battery-electric vehicles, by contrast, still barely registered. Global BEV sales climbed 35 percent, but only amounted to 139,892 vehicles, or about 1.3 percent of Toyota’s worldwide volume.

“In North America, the lineup of electrified vehicles has been increasing,” a Toyota spokesperson said while announcing the figures Jan. 30 in Tokyo. “In addition to growing environmental awareness, demand among consumers in North America has shifted from gasoline-powered vehicles to purchasing hybrid vehicles,” the spokesperson said.

That tracks.

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Jaguar Land Rover Also Missed Estimates

Land Rover Defender Beach Break

It’s a strange moment for the Tata-owned Jaguar Land Rover. The Land Rover part of the equation continues to deliver high margins from mostly gas-powered trucks while Jaguar has basically stopped building cars in order to prep for a new, more premium EV future.

The company’s Q3 25 (but Q4 24 by the calendar) was, eh, not great. Profits fell about 17%, though margins were pretty good with a pre-tax margin of 9.0%. Why the profit loss then?

The increase in profitability year‑on‑year reflects higher volumes, improved mix and a reduction in depreciation and amortisation (D&A) driven by Castle Bromwich production cessation and ICE end of life extensions, partially offset by an increase in VME, warranty costs and unfavourable FX revaluation.

One of the downsides of reporting your earnings in pounds is that the pound is way down to the dollar, which is a situation that’s likely not to change anytime soon.

Fed Keeps Rates Steady, Which Isn’t Great For Car Buyers

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell
Photo: Federal Reserve

This time last year the US Federal Reserve Bank (the Fed) was coming off of a couple of good quarters of inflation dropping and the assumption was that rate cuts might be coming in the summer. And then inflation didn’t drop and so the rate decrease got pushed into the second half of 2024.

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History is repeating itself because that’s basically what happened at the start of this year as the Fed’s chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank isn’t going to move rates yet.

Per CNBC:

In their news release announcing the decision — which analysts typically parse for signs of the path ahead — Fed officials struck a more cautious tone on inflation. They removed part of a line in their previous release saying inflation “has made progress toward” a goal of 2%, noting in Wednesday’s statement only that it “remains somewhat elevated.”

Powell said at a news conference after the announcement that recent inflation data looked “good” but that “we’re not going to over-interpret two good or two bad [inflation] readings.”

While access to credit for car buyers is improving, slowly, a rate cut probably wouldn’t have hurt. Other factors, such as delinquencies, are also helping keep rates up.

What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD

You knew it was coming. Famed war videographer Don Johnson is looking for a”Heartbeat.” Any guesses what I’m going to do tomorrow?

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The Big Question

Will any company knock Toyota off as the biggest carmaker in the world? Which company and when?

Top photo: Tesla/Depositphotos.com

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Hoonicus
Hoonicus
9 hours ago

You know, you hope you mis-heard something when a rambling from a person of biggly importance strikes you as off, then you see the transcript. Well what is certain is that our best hope for the future of mankind, is to get the biggliest off to the new Mars colonies ASAP.

B L
B L
9 hours ago

I long for a time when I never have to hear about this idiot again.

Cloud Shouter
Cloud Shouter
9 hours ago
AlterId has reverted to their original pseud
AlterId has reverted to their original pseud
8 hours ago
Reply to  Cloud Shouter

That’s exactly what I was thinking.

Username Loading....
Username Loading....
9 hours ago

I don’t know. If I met a toddler then 8 years later that same person was still a toddler. Aside from being pretty confused, I think it wouldn’t be unreasonable to conclude that they would not become an adult, or at least not become one in the next several years. Seriously Elon what are you on about?

Manwich Sandwich
Manwich Sandwich
9 hours ago

. For better or worse, if you invest in Tesla you’re investing in the idea that Elon Musk’s management style and vision is eventually achievable”

Well not just Musk, but Musk combined with his attitude of being okay with trying things that may initially fail and learning from the failures. And of course there’s the talent of all the engineers he employs doing the actual work.

If you watch Sandy Munro talk about the difference between Tesla and where he used to work (Ford), at places like Ford, he’s said more than once how innovation at legacy auto companies not only gets stifled, you are more likely to get promoted by simply saying ‘no’ all the time.

In this respect, Tesla is the opposite of a lot of legacy car makers.

And regarding his statement about becoming hugely profitable… remember Musk’s background as a software guy. The gross margins companies like Microsoft or Apple get on software is huge… something like 60-80% gross margin… way higher than traditional automotive.

So I strongly suspect Musk is following the Apple model of selling hardware in the interest of selling hugely profitable services.

Services and software… that’s how Tesla will become hugely profitable.

But building that ecosystem takes time and lots of long-term planning.

Which is why the short-term-focused CEOs of traditional automakers will never do something like that even though it would be a good idea for the company in the long term. They’re too focused on the next quarter and getting their stupid short term bonus, implementing meaningless change and then collecting their golden parachute when their stint is done.

Now some of you know I used to be a fan of Musk… but I’m not anymore ever since he cozied up to Trump… which I think is very stupid (among other stupid things he’s done like firing the entire supercharger team and the rehiring most of them).

And I think one thing Musk is underestimating is the impact a political backlash can have on sales when you align yourself with the wrong side… especially when political tides turn. And they always turn eventually.

The Stig's Misanthropic Cousin
The Stig's Misanthropic Cousin
9 hours ago

“Services and software… that’s how Tesla will become hugely profitable.”

For services, would you include fast charging? I’m surprised Tesla hasn’t leaned into this as a major profit center. I bought a Tesla almost entirely because of the Supercharger network. Tesla managed to make fast charging relatively painless. Given how miserable networks like Electric America are to use, it seems like Tesla could essentially have a near monopoly on fast charging if it wanted to. I presume they could make billions on fast charging if they wanted to.

RallyMech
RallyMech
7 hours ago

You aren’t the target customer for Supercharger Network Sales, other automakers are. Tesla owners are subsidizing and beta testers for it.

The Stig's Misanthropic Cousin
The Stig's Misanthropic Cousin
7 hours ago
Reply to  RallyMech

I’m not sure I agree with that. It is hard to see the Supercharger network as a beta phase product after this many years. It seems like they perfected the concept a while ago and are incrementally improving it, as all companies do with their products. My understanding is that Tesla built the network to get potential buyers comfortable with the idea of owning an EV; I don’t know if they had or currently have a goal for how they intend to use the network beyond that.

Manwich Sandwich
Manwich Sandwich
6 hours ago

For services, would you include fast charging?”

Correct. And Tesla has also been toying with the idea of pairing supercharger locations with a restaurant concept.

My Goat Ate My Homework
My Goat Ate My Homework
6 hours ago

LOL, I’m just trying to imagine justifying TSLA market cap with a chain of burger joints.

Bob the Hobo
Bob the Hobo
8 hours ago

Services and software… that’s how Tesla will become hugely profitable.

Can already see them applying this approach. They don’t want to sell you a new car every year, so they don’t bother updating style as often as other makes. What they do want to sell you is updates and subscriptions for features in your car. Tech enthusiasts, Tesla’s core fanbase, are already used to this, so they’re not going to scoff as much as when BMW tried making heated seats a subscription feature.
I can only hope that not every vehicle manufacturer attempts to follow this model as I view it as anti-consumer, but it is very enticing to automakers and many consumers are willing to accept it.

Frank Wrench
Frank Wrench
8 hours ago

Musk is an ass and nothing in the Tesla lineup interests me. That said, I respect what he has done to make Tesla as successful as it is, along with other ventures like Space X. And, as you point out, that he can afford to take the long view on the future of transportation, unlike the auto CEOs.

Last edited 8 hours ago by Frank Wrench
NosrednaNod
NosrednaNod
7 hours ago

“… but Musk combined with his attitude of being okay with trying things that may initially fail and learning from the failures…”

Citation needed on the “learning” part….

RidesBicyclesButLovesCars
RidesBicyclesButLovesCars
9 hours ago

Mattel is already bigger than Toyota as the largest car manufacturer in the world. They own the Matchbox and Hot Wheels brands and sell over 700 million cars a year. We will ignore the fact that humans can’t drive these cars.

Last edited 9 hours ago by RidesBicyclesButLovesCars
Arch Duke Maxyenko
Arch Duke Maxyenko
8 hours ago

Hell the Little Tikes Cozy coupe alone is up there as best selling vehicle

Live2ski
Live2ski
7 hours ago

Lego is the largest wheel manufacturer too.

WaCkO
WaCkO
1 hour ago

I believe Lego is the worlds biggest producer of tires.
Edit I just saw that live2ski already said this

Last edited 1 hour ago by WaCkO
Fuzzyweis
Fuzzyweis
9 hours ago

Tomorrow maybe Tracey Ullman, maybe the Hoff, maybe Rick Springfield? Though I think his music career is bigger than his acting career.
John Schneider could be a deep cut.

On the topic of the news, I don’t think he’s that good an actor, but wondering if Musk is doing a long con on the far right to get more people in his cars. He already got the EV wanting liberals, granted some are leaving due to his antics, but a lot of far right is an untapped market for EVs. Similar to the Duck Dynasty grow beards and act redneck methodology, or Larry the Cable guy, they were all clean cut polo and dockers guys until they found their niche, then they’re selling out of t-shirts and bumper stickers and lunchboxes faster than Mel Brooks can say ‘merchandising’. Course he’s been a rich white guy from South Africa all along so maybe he was previously acting and now he’s not, either way.

I think BYD will be bigger than Toyota at some point, not better, just bigger.

Last edited 9 hours ago by Fuzzyweis
John Beef
John Beef
9 hours ago
Reply to  Fuzzyweis

I have had the same thought about Musk trying to court conservatives. That’s no excuse for Nazi salutes, though.

Danny Zabolotny
Danny Zabolotny
9 hours ago

I don’t believe Elon, the dude is a lifelong liar and a con man just like his best friend (the vile orange). Everything Elon has achieved is a result of starting out wealthy from a family tree that benefited from apartheid. He has literally failed up in the most infuriating way and he thinks he’s a genius because of that. The fact that Tesla has done so well (relatively) is in spite of Elon, not because of him.

Nsane In The MembraNe
Nsane In The MembraNe
9 hours ago
A Reader
A Reader
8 hours ago

that article is really something, right? thanks for linking

WaCkO
WaCkO
1 hour ago

(He wasn’t trying to be a Nazi)you don’t have to try when you are one.

Nsane In The MembraNe
Nsane In The MembraNe
1 hour ago
Reply to  WaCkO

Actual Nazis: this guy is one of ours

Elon: I will neither confirm or deny that I am a Nazi

Mainstream media: he performed a peculiar gesture that we can’t definitively identify

TheHairyNug
TheHairyNug
9 hours ago

Tesla and SpaceX have absolutely benefited from Elon running them. This can’t be denied, regardless of how shitty he is

Citrus
Citrus
8 hours ago
Reply to  TheHairyNug

I’m of the opinion that he’s an example of how having too many resources completely rots your brain. He’s turned into a drug-addled fascist nightmare, but at the beginning of his ascent he was a charismatic hype man who could secure investment. There were elements of chaos behind the scenes, but they weren’t the headline like they are now.

If 2025 Musk was the guy who was building out Tesla it wouldn’t have gotten off the ground at all.

Parsko
Parsko
8 hours ago
Reply to  Citrus

If 2025 Musk was the guy who was building out Tesla it wouldn’t have gotten off the ground at all.

Nail meet hammer. There are few better ways to say this.

Jon Winsley
Jon Winsley
7 hours ago
Reply to  TheHairyNug

Tesla and SpaceX have also benefited from $4.9 billion from the govt “including grants, tax breaks, factory construction, discounted loans and environmental credits that Tesla can sell. It also includes tax credits and rebates to buyers of solar panels and electric cars”. From LATIMES article

RidesBicyclesButLovesCars
RidesBicyclesButLovesCars
9 hours ago

Musk is the largest reason why Tesla is where they are today. He was able to get people to invest during the startup phase when mass production EVs looked like a moon shot. He was able to attract very talented people who could think outside the traditional car box.

However, I think Tesla would be in a better place today if Musk left 2-3 years ago. He has lived up to the quote by Harvey Dent “You either die a hero, or live long enough to see yourself become the villain”

The Stig's Misanthropic Cousin
The Stig's Misanthropic Cousin
8 hours ago

I completely agree. He made the company what it is today, but he is a liability at this point. In addition to his controversial opinions, he is treating Tesla like it is still a startup. At this point, it is a mature company that makes some very good products. These products are in desperate need of updates to keep buyers interested, but Elon is making Tesla focus on things that are unlikely to come to fruition any time soon. It would be nice if Musk could spin off the automotive division of Tesla and let someone else run that. I don’t mind if he wants to try moonshots like FSD, but don’t run the car company into the ground in the process.

Arch Duke Maxyenko
Arch Duke Maxyenko
8 hours ago

Elon literally conned both the Federal Government and Daimler to invest in Tesla by claiming to each that the other had already given Tesla the money when in fact neither had. Prior to that he was shit canned from every other job for being terrible.

Lockleaf
Lockleaf
7 hours ago

To be fair, this is exactly how Carrol Shelby got the AC Cobra built.

Chronometric
Chronometric
7 hours ago
Reply to  Lockleaf

To be fair, that is how most any big deal gets put together. Convince the backers that the other backers are on board. When one says yes, you quickly close the rest. It is called bootstrapping.

Danny Zabolotny
Danny Zabolotny
5 hours ago

Yep. I recently read a biographer’s account of Elon’s life up to this point, and it’s amazing how many schools he flunked out of and how many companies he got ejected from because of being an asshole to deal with. Literally the only reason he has any success is because he had daddy’s money to give him a starting point, he used that to con his way up to the top.

Crank Shaft
Crank Shaft
7 hours ago

I’d like to buy you lunch. 🙂

Danny Zabolotny
Danny Zabolotny
5 hours ago
Reply to  Crank Shaft

Hit me up if you’re ever in Phoenix, always happy to meet other sane car people.

Crank Shaft
Crank Shaft
5 hours ago

Crap, we almost had a date, then you had to mention the sanity requirement which I would precipitously fail.

Danny Zabolotny
Danny Zabolotny
5 hours ago
Reply to  Crank Shaft

I mean, sane is all relative, haha. The amount of old BMW parts I have stockpiled and the fact that I only drive 30 year old BMW’s is its own level of insanity.

Ben
Ben
6 hours ago

The fact that Tesla has done so well (relatively) is in spite of Elon, not because of him.

Tesla the company, yes. Tesla the speculative stock is entirely successful because of Elon’s charlatanism, however.

Urban Runabout
Urban Runabout
9 hours ago

That’s what he does. He makes big promises and fulfills some of them. The promises are big enough that it only takes a few hits, though, to make him the richest person in the world.”

Let’s call a spade a spade, shall we?

He makes false claims – which is fraud.
Those claims affect his stock prices – which is stock pumping.

This is why the SEC has been after him numerous times – which is why he threw millions at Trump so that Trump would shut down the SEC investigations by defunding the SEC via DOGE, keeping Elmo safe in his Ketamine-addicted Fascist world.

This is how the world works now.

TheHairyNug
TheHairyNug
9 hours ago
Reply to  Urban Runabout

Calling him a fraud is just silly. CEOs everywhere make stupid promises that they never keep. At least Elon often delivers on nearly unbelievable achievements

Pupmeow
Pupmeow
9 hours ago
Reply to  TheHairyNug

Absolutely not. CEOs of publicly traded companies pay their lawyers a LOT of money to ensure their forward-looking statements will not be or even appear to be an attempt to mislead investors. Musk just … doesn’t do that and so far has mostly gotten away with it due to the sad state of regulatory enforcement in this country.

Pupmeow
Pupmeow
8 hours ago
Reply to  TheHairyNug

LYING about your capabilities and capital investment plans is different from CHANGING plans based on market conditions. Do you think when a company fails to meet targets that is somehow a lie?

Lie: “I have funding secured to buy Twitter!”
Totally okay and legal prediction: “We intend to build 1M EVs by X date!”

TheHairyNug
TheHairyNug
8 hours ago
Reply to  Pupmeow

I don’t have telekinesis to determine a lie from an intention, and neither do you

Mike G.
Mike G.
7 hours ago
Reply to  TheHairyNug

Telekinesis is moving things with your mind…

J G
J G
8 hours ago
Reply to  TheHairyNug

We can’t let facts get in the way of an emotional hot take!

Pupmeow
Pupmeow
4 hours ago
Reply to  J G

It’s not an emotional hot take. It’s literally my job to understand the distinctions I referenced.

Urban Runabout
Urban Runabout
8 hours ago
Reply to  Pupmeow

Having worked in Legal/Compliance for a publicly-traded company – these calls are VERY CAREFULLY SCRIPTED so as not to make promises that cannot be kept, and social media posts are also carefully reviewed prior to posting for those same reasons.

On the other hand, Elmo goes off script all the time – including his midnight tweets, which are impossible for anyone on his staff to review – which affects markets.

Ottomottopean
Ottomottopean
5 hours ago
Reply to  Urban Runabout

Hell, I worked at one of the biggest corporations in the country and they would have giant legal disclaimers on the board for internal meetings, just in case anyone repeated it outside the building to someone.

Urban Runabout
Urban Runabout
4 hours ago
Reply to  Ottomottopean

Exactly.

Pupmeow
Pupmeow
4 hours ago
Reply to  Urban Runabout

I’m in-house legal and, yeah, this is what I was getting at, and why I have been shocked at Musk’s behavior (not anymore since … you know).

Horizontally Opposed
Horizontally Opposed
7 hours ago
Reply to  Urban Runabout

Not a fraud to just simply talk your stock up. The fools are the ones who just take face value statements from self interested pricks.

Urban Runabout
Urban Runabout
6 hours ago

It’s fraud to say “We are going to sell cars that will make you money” when those cars can’t make you money.

It’s fraud to say “This is 100% self-driving” when the demonstrator is being run by a guy behind a bush with a radio controller.

It’s fraud to say “This car will never lose value” when you then drop prices to make the value of those older cars drop.

It’s fraud to say “We’ll definitely roll out this Roadster in 2020” in 2017 – and nothing but empty promises has happened since.

For a CEO of a tech company – Elon is incredibly bad at this.

Horizontally Opposed
Horizontally Opposed
2 hours ago
Reply to  Urban Runabout

I don’t think it’s fraud and it may feel like a technicality, but it’s just rosy projections and empty unfounded promises; in a society where financial meltdowns with clear bad guys can’t pin shit on donkey kong, Elmo’s hollow promises are hardly fraud. Us expecting he gets punished for that is just naive.

DialMforMiata
DialMforMiata
9 hours ago

“Any guesses what I’m going to do tomorrow?”

If it’s not “Looking for Freedom” by The Hoff I’ll be sorely disappointed.

Ash78
Ash78
9 hours ago

Isn’t Self-Driving Wolf a song from Flight of the Conchords?

This is some Trump-level mouth diarrhea, IMO.

One tip that both of them need to take is to capitalize on people’s recency bias. Always be sure to name your most attainable goals towards the end of your rant, then when those come true, people subtly think you succeeded across the board.

Just ask me about how my new year’s resolutions are to stop beating my kids, bench press 500 lbs, learn more SQL coding at work, and wax the car.

DONE AND DONE.

Grey alien in a beige sedan
Grey alien in a beige sedan
9 hours ago

I can’t foresee any other automaker dethroning Toyota any time in the next couple of decades.

  • VW group has been shooting themselves in the foot. Stellantis has turned into brand soup with a serious lack of models to comprise each brand.
  • Honda, even if they did merge with Mitsubishi and Nissan, would need to clean house before attempting such a feat.
  • Ford can’t do it either unless they begin to expand their portfolio and model lineup.
  • Renault, Suzuki, Subaru, Lada are all far too small to attempt such a feat.
  • While Tesla seemed poised to take a run at it, they’ve been on the decline lately and the CyberTruck was released while only being half-baked.
  • And GM, well, aside from big pickups, can’t seem to make a decent vehicle.

The only two makers that have a shot at overtaking Toyota are the following, and the reasons holding them back:

  • BYD. They are absolutely killing in their domestic market right now and are experiencing huge growth. The spanner in their gears though is the global pushback against Chinese economic expansion, primarily in the form of tariffs.
  • Hyundai/Kia. Honestly, they make pretty damn good vehicles. While their quality is better than many other manufacturers, they really need to be on par with Toyota’s quality to get there. This is achievable, but not likely to take place in 10-20 years. Beyond that, they have the best shot in my mind.
Kingd
Kingd
9 hours ago

Elon Musk has crossed a line politically, and at this point, you cannot have an article about what he says without at least mentioning that.

If you want to talk about Tesla, talk about Tesla. But if you are going to talk about Musk, at the very least you have to acknowledge his support of extreme right-wing politicians and that his words and physical actions appear to indicate that he is a neo-Nazi. (You cannot simply say “his controversial views” or “his perplexing bodily movements.”)

And yes, it’s relevant to this article, as it 100% impacts the views of both Tesla customers and investors.

Danny Zabolotny
Danny Zabolotny
9 hours ago
Reply to  Kingd

This! Given how intertwined Elon is with Tesla (despite not being an original founder), I find it hard to separate the car company from the far-right racist running it. We’ll see if that leads to a long term loss in sales though.

Ash78
Ash78
8 hours ago
Reply to  Kingd

I’m still bothered by how he says “Tez-luh”

I mean, it doesn’t rise to the level of all the other stuff, but yesterday a South African coworker said out loud and I was just slightly triggered. That’s the only two humans I’ve ever heard mispronounce Nikola’s name like that. 🙂

J G
J G
8 hours ago
Reply to  Kingd

My heart goes out to you. (figuratively & dramatically throws heart to the crowd.)

Drive By Commenter
Drive By Commenter
9 hours ago

Having a free trial of FSD version 13.2 right now, it’s good enough for 85% of the driving I do. That last 15%, oh boy. Things like following clear tracks through snow are beyond it. Or slowing down during heavy snow at night to not over-drive the headlights. Or not turning on the high beams during the same weather conditions. Keep the low beams and fogs on!

It may not be a toddler anymore. But it’s not an adult. Maybe a preschooler. Still have to keep eyes on at all times. Impressive tech. Not ready for L3, though.

NC Miata NA
NC Miata NA
9 hours ago

FSD is not a toddler, it is the awesome combination of skill and experience from the average teenage drivers’ ed student combined with the shot depth perception of a 85 year old that shouldn’t be driving.

Dan Roth
Dan Roth
9 hours ago

That doesn’t sound impressive.

The Stig's Misanthropic Cousin
The Stig's Misanthropic Cousin
9 hours ago

I had a FSD trial in my Model 3 a few months ago. I was unimpressed and honestly a bit frightened. It had zero concept of right of way at stop signs. It also accelerated as fast as possible whenever it pulled away from a stoplight, randomly panic braked for nonexistent threats, and occasionally drove well under or over the speed limit. It also swayed right and left within the lane to the point where I felt seasick at times.

I disagree that it isn’t an adult. It is a drunk 90 year old adult with cataracts.

I was unimpressed by FSD, but even if I thought it worked well, I probably wouldn’t use it. The Model 3 (and S) are both very fun to drive. I could see it being nice on long trips, though.

Last edited 9 hours ago by The Stig's Misanthropic Cousin
Drive By Commenter
Drive By Commenter
6 hours ago

What version on what hardware? V13 on HW4 is miles ahead of V12 on HW4. V12 on HW3, like on the 2021 Model 3 loaner I’ve had for two days, is a disappointment. It’s jerky and abrupt. Far jerkier than V12 was on my HW4 Tesla, which is now on V13 for two more weeks. V13 is far smoother. Like, normal human smooth. It’s not accelerating like a dragster and not braking like a racecar. Decisions about lanes are noticeably improved and more natural.

It’s still not perfect like I’ve said.

The Stig's Misanthropic Cousin
The Stig's Misanthropic Cousin
3 hours ago

I have a 2021 Model 3, so HW3. Software is V12. So it sounds like I am running a version of FSD that is substantially inferior to the newer system. I was very unimpressed with my self driving experience, but I will give it a try if I have a chance to drive a newer vehicle with V13.

TurboCruiser
TurboCruiser
9 hours ago

You’re testing this in the snow?! Are they at least paying you to be a test dummy? You’re risking your life by using this tech on a good day. In poor conditions you’re just asking for a crash.

Drive By Commenter
Drive By Commenter
8 hours ago
Reply to  TurboCruiser

I’ve used FSD on the free trials over the course of a few months and a few thousand miles through various weather conditions. I’ve driven the car extensively without it too. Snow tires make a large difference too. No, the car won’t donut. Kick the tail out, yes. But that’s me being a yahoo in a parking lot.

I’ve tested it in really snowy conditions a couple of times. When it could discern a lane, like with a plow creating a pile on the side of the road, it was mostly okay. It got turned off quickly.

In good weather, it does fine.

Mechanical Pig
Mechanical Pig
8 hours ago

To be fair, the average human driver doesn’t seem to realize that low beams are better in fog than high (it was supremely foggy here last night and I bet 50% of cars on the road had their brights on, making it even worse), and the notion of slowing down on slippery roads also seems lost on many people, given how many cars I see in the ditch every time it rains here in Texas. Following right-of-way is also hardly a given with human drivers either. More of a grade school lunch line “me first” jockeying to be 15′ closer to the next stoplight.

So in that regard, FSD sounds like it’s at least on par with the typical meat sack behind the wheel.

DialMforMiata
DialMforMiata
9 hours ago

“But I’m telling you, there’s a damn wolf this time and you can drive it.
In fact, it could drive you. It’s a self-driving wolf.”

What are the chances that he is literally talking about a robotic wolf?

Bob the Hobo
Bob the Hobo
9 hours ago
Reply to  DialMforMiata

I would not put it past him to fulfill such a fetish.

Tbird
Tbird
9 hours ago
Reply to  Bob the Hobo

Well, we are not too far from book burning, are we?

Pupmeow
Pupmeow
9 hours ago
Reply to  DialMforMiata

A robotic wolf that he is seeing through a Ketamine-induced hallucination.

DialMforMiata
DialMforMiata
9 hours ago
Reply to  Pupmeow

They were going to put a real wolf in a robot costume for the demonstration but the wolf was… uncooperative.

Last edited 9 hours ago by DialMforMiata
Ash78
Ash78
8 hours ago
Reply to  DialMforMiata

“Mr. Musk, is it true that your robotic wolf is just some additional plastic panels on a Boston Dynamics robotic dog?”

And then his adherents call him a visionary innovator once again.

Lotsofchops
Lotsofchops
9 hours ago

You’d be silly to bet against Tesla now more than ever. The conflict of interest/corruption can just be fully out in the open now, so I’m sure he’ll be getting whatever he wants to enrich himself further. Apparently it’s never enough.

Anoos
Anoos
9 hours ago
Reply to  Lotsofchops

That’s what I don’t understand about people who believe in conspiracies.

There’s no need for secret conspiracies any longer. Things are just done openly and applauded.

Clark B
Clark B
4 hours ago
Reply to  Anoos

Yeah, it’s hilarious to me that conspiracy theorists think there’s this secret group of ultra-rich powerful people running things. There is a group of ultra-rich, powerful people running things, but it’s hardly a secret, you can read about it in the news. I think some people just like to think they’re “in” on something that no one else understands so that they feel special and superior (at least, that’s how the conspiracy theorists I’ve met sounded).

Hangover Grenade
Hangover Grenade
9 hours ago

I’d never buy a Tesla because Elmo is a complete knob and I don’t want to make him any richer.

But.

It’d be interesting to see a tech-decontented Model 3. I like the electric motor and battery tech, so keep that. The interior is pretty sparse and low-rent as-is. Just remove all the lidar sensors and cameras and FSD nonsense. Lose the fancy pop-out door handles. Lose all the stupid tech frippery and you have a $25k car.

Bob the Hobo
Bob the Hobo
9 hours ago

I’ve heard of small electric conversion companies purchasing drivetrains direct from Tesla. Depending on the rules and favorability of the licensing, a company could use that same approach to produce new vehicles as you’ve described.

JaredTheGeek
JaredTheGeek
9 hours ago

Well good news is there are no sensors already, it’s just cameras on the latest crop of cars so just cameras would have to go. They removed radar years ago and dropped ultrasonic sensors sometime in 2022.

Mechjaz
Mechjaz
9 hours ago

Maybe I wasn’t noticing before, maybe it’s a confirmation bias, but Musk seems to be talking more and more in that redundant, circuitous, aggrandized syntax that adds up to nothing, just like his best bud Orange Wattle in Chief.

Andy Farrell
Andy Farrell
8 hours ago
Reply to  Mechjaz

That what happens when you’re higher than a kite, everything seems profound.

CampoDF
CampoDF
9 hours ago

WTF does he mean by the “ability to monetize the fleet”? I’m guessing it’s 100% nefarious, whatever the intention. Believing Elon is like believing a pathological liar despite copious evidence that they are full of shit.

Mechjaz
Mechjaz
9 hours ago
Reply to  CampoDF

Minor correction: it isn’t like that, it *is* that.

CampoDF
CampoDF
5 hours ago
Reply to  Mechjaz

Fair point haha!

Pupmeow
Pupmeow
9 hours ago
Reply to  CampoDF

Statements like “we’ll monetize the ____!!!” from tech bros drive me insane. Almost as insane as the fact that people buy it.

Mechjaz
Mechjaz
7 hours ago
Reply to  Pupmeow

I mean, the SO and I discussed it, but anonymity was a concern on OnlyFans and….

Oooooh, monetize the *fleet*. Ahem. Carry on.

Pupmeow
Pupmeow
4 hours ago
Reply to  Mechjaz

hahaha nice.

Nsane In The MembraNe
Nsane In The MembraNe
10 hours ago

Elon making ridiculous promises he can’t keep? I did Nazi that coming

DialMforMiata
DialMforMiata
9 hours ago

Put your hand in the air for that comment!

Nsane In The MembraNe
Nsane In The MembraNe
9 hours ago
Reply to  DialMforMiata

Make an excited gesture from the heart in a moment of jubilance!

Trucky
Trucky
6 hours ago

He’s probably Furherious over this comment.

Nsane In The MembraNe
Nsane In The MembraNe
6 hours ago
Reply to  Trucky

Making fun of Nazis is evergreen

Trucky
Trucky
6 hours ago

If it’s wrong then I don’t want to be Reich

Jdoubledub
Jdoubledub
10 hours ago

Is Coyote Ugly still a thing? I went to the one in Florida and my extra nerdy friend got conned in to buying 10 shots for a group of 5 of us because he couldn’t say no to a pretty girl.

TXJeepGuy
TXJeepGuy
9 hours ago
Reply to  Jdoubledub

Haven’t been in one in a long time but I have still seen them in Vegas and New Orleans. I remember the Vegas one always being empty and someone handing out buy one get one free drink coupons out front. The $18 coors light inside explained why.

Pupmeow
Pupmeow
9 hours ago
Reply to  TXJeepGuy

Hence the need to con someone into buying your shots.

Mechanical Pig
Mechanical Pig
8 hours ago
Reply to  TXJeepGuy

The one on 6th street in Austin is exactly like that too. At least it was last time I went out on 6th, which was probably close to 10 years ago. Pretty much empty, very depressing, 2000s bro-rock blasting (nickleback, kid rock, hinder, ect) hustler on the sidewalk pestering people walking by and handing out coupons for a “free shot” (with purchase of extremely overpriced beer). Inside the girls/bartenders instantly start bugging you to buy shots with sexually explicit names. What’s in it? How much does it cost? Pffft loosen up and you get poured a round of shots that tasted like a jolly rancher someone farted on and cost $15 apiece.

TOSSABL
TOSSABL
8 hours ago
Reply to  Mechanical Pig

This is why I like to invest my money in questionable cars rather than alcohol.
Granted; the hangover lasts longer—but I at least end up with something I can set on fire & dance around

Crimedog
Crimedog
10 hours ago

Nissonda! 2032!
Who wouldn’t want a V-TEC powered Titan, but unibodied!

A RWD CrossCabrioLude!

Mechjaz
Mechjaz
10 hours ago
Reply to  Crimedog

I’d take that. I have plenty of trouble sleeping.

Bob the Hobo
Bob the Hobo
9 hours ago
Reply to  Crimedog

Finally, a full-size truck with the power of both V-TEC and a Jatco CVT.
If you think the Altima drivers are bad, you ain’t ready.

Nsane In The MembraNe
Nsane In The MembraNe
9 hours ago
Reply to  Bob the Hobo

I eagerly await a certain commenter showing up

Grey alien in a beige sedan
Grey alien in a beige sedan
9 hours ago
Reply to  Crimedog

Imagine a RWD Accord with a VR38DETT.

Crimedog
Crimedog
7 hours ago

Or a Prelude that was done right, like the Silvia.

SubieSubieDoo
SubieSubieDoo
10 hours ago

You’re going to go to either Leonard Nimoy or William Shatner, aren’t you, you glorious bastard??!!

Mike
Mike
9 hours ago
Reply to  SubieSubieDoo

“Common People” is brilliant… but since Matt already linked to “Party all the Time,” it means we’re going to end up with his “Bohemian Rhapsody” or something…

Bob the Hobo
Bob the Hobo
9 hours ago
Reply to  SubieSubieDoo

I’m hoping for Telly Savalas though he’s more 70s than 80s.

Arch Duke Maxyenko
Arch Duke Maxyenko
10 hours ago

Elon is still promising infinite growth, which is infinite bullshit. His 4th reich ideology will eventually run the company into the ground, but he doesn’t care. He couldn’t care less about anything that isn’t him or how much virtual money is tethered to his name

4jim
4jim
10 hours ago

It is so hard to convince some people that there is only one planet that has finite resources, and finite space on it. Some people just can’t give up their infinite growth capitalism mindset.

Tbird
Tbird
9 hours ago
Reply to  4jim

But we will colonize the universe….

Cerberus
Cerberus
7 hours ago
Reply to  4jim

There will be plenty after their push for AI replaces the need for so many lesser people to support them and they wipe us out with some manufactured disease (awfully convenient to have such a large anti-vax movement going on now). It will all be worth it if the AI then kills them off.

I almost wish I could actually believe in these conspiracies because some insidious, cooperative, long term plan is somehow more comforting to me than the simple truth of abject greed driven by bottomless insecurity and being too stupid to try something different to fix it other than hoarding even more wealth and influence.

4jim
4jim
7 hours ago
Reply to  Cerberus

Conspiracy theories are so much more comforting than the concept that nobody knows what the hell is going on, everything’s random as crap, and we have no control over anything. Which is more likely to be true.

Ben
Ben
6 hours ago
Reply to  Cerberus

It will all be worth it if the AI then kills them off.

Little did we know that Skynet wasn’t the villain of those movies.

Ash78
Ash78
9 hours ago

Don’t forget the other side of the coin, though…his slow descent into madness has also opened him up to the half of the country that might have otherwise felt too stigmatized by owning one, at least for a while.

Now he’s got the traditionally leftist greenies and the rightist Trumpers both (maybe reluctantly) willing to look at his products.

What do I know, though? This morning I saw an FJB decal on a Forester and it nearly broke my brain 🙂

Arch Duke Maxyenko
Arch Duke Maxyenko
9 hours ago
Reply to  Ash78

The ketamine fueled nazi fuck might have got some of the maga crowd, but it’s also pushing out the other half that initially embraced the company. Especially when there are more options out there.

I’ve always felt weirded out by people saying how badly they would like to fornicate with Joe Biden, like keep your old man fetishes to yourselves.

Stryker_T
Stryker_T
10 hours ago

Elon is acutely aware of toddlers growing up on him, because that’s when they get more mature than he is and disown him as a parent.

Last edited 10 hours ago by Stryker_T
Brandon Forbes
Brandon Forbes
9 hours ago
Reply to  Stryker_T

Oh man that’s funny. You think he’s as mature as a toddler. I think a Labrador puppy has more maturity

4jim
4jim
7 hours ago
Reply to  Brandon Forbes

And lab puppies do not have nazi tendencies.

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