European carmakers, taken as a whole, have made some questionable product decisions over the last few years. As global companies, they’ve tried to make money selling cars in China, the United States, and Europe. This has largely been a strategy that’s worked. Now something is changing.
It’s hard to put a finger on exactly when this happened, but after a decade of globalized cars and globalized platforms the world changed and now Europe, China, and the United States have become more differentiated. Most brands have charted a way forward, balancing home markets and exports, but European carmakers seem to have been the ones caught most flat-footed.
This end-of-the-month Morning Dump is all about exogenous threats. Europe is greatly at risk of falling further behind China and has to come to some sort of compromise to save itself and save the planet at the same time. The United States, being the world’s greatest market, is less at risk of falling to China because it has decided to protect itself. Of course, all of this talk of American companies continuing to prosper must exclude Stellantis, which is now facing its second big strike in roughly a year.
And, finally, we’ll talk about the mother of all exogenous threats: Mother Nature.
Europe Is Beginning To Recognize Its Screwedness
The question I asked at the beginning of this month was “How screwed is the European car industry?” and the answer, at least according to Q3 revisions, is: very. Most of Europe’s major automakers are having to concede that times are tough.
Here’s a decent wrap-up from Reuters:
Volkswagen cut its annual outlook for the second time in less than three months on Friday, citing a weaker-than-expected performance at its passenger car division as pressure on Europe’s top automaker continues to rise.
The lowered outlook is the latest from Germany’s car giants, with Mercedes-Benz and BMW both downgrading their annual forecasts earlier this month as a result of weakening demand in China, the world’s biggest car market.
They’re not alone, here’s Automotive News on what’s happening with Stellantis:
Stellantis cut its profit margin forecast for the year, citing higher costs to revive its struggling Jeep and Dodge businesses in the U.S., Chinese competition and a global slowdown in the auto industry.
Adjusted profit margin is now expected to be between 5.5 percent and 7.0 percent for the year, down from the “double digit” level previously forecast, Stellantis said in a statement.
The Chinese automotive market isn’t in great shape right now. In fact, few car markets are in great shape right now. Europe is facing weakening demand at home. China’s demand is down, but mostly for traditional ICE vehicles, as anything with a plug is having a great year (EVs are up 33% and Plug-in Hybrids are up 74% year-over-year).
I think all of this “oh, it’s China” talk glosses over the fact that European automakers aren’t building cars that China wants and are getting their asses kicked both by domestic brands like BYD and Changan as well as by Tesla, which probably had a huge third quarter in the country.
It’s a wild reversal, as China has become the most important market for Volkswagen, Mercedes, and BMW (less so Stellantis). Let’s look at Volkswagen, which has probably been the most successful European automaker in China since the ’90s. Sales were down in the first half of the year, including a drop of more than 25% for electric vehicle sales from Q1 to Q2 in China. That sucks. By my math, Volkswagen sells about as many EVs in a quarter in China as Tesla sells there in 10 days. VW is also reportedly planning on closing more plants in China after demand falls for its JV-produced products.
This is also true for Mercedes and BMW, which still make popular gas-powered cars, but haven’t built a truly great electric car for that market yet:
For Mercedes and BMW, more than 90% of the top-end S-Class and BMW 7-Series vehicles in China are still ordered with combustion engines, managers said at the car show in Beijing in April. Meanwhile, even heavy price cuts in China have failed to stoke demand for the EQS, the electric sibling to the S-Class.
China will still buy German cars (assuming retaliatory tariffs don’t make them too expensive), but they aren’t the cars of the future. If you’re going to be successful in China in the future at high volumes you’re going to need a car that plugs in. It’s as simple as that.
What about Europe? I think European automakers are still good at making cars for their home markets. Stellantis, in particular, is picking up market share on the continent with cheap Peugeots and Fiats. The problem for most European automakers is the same problem Chinese automakers have, which is that they have too much production capacity to not be exporting cars. Europe will need a positive economic jolt to get people to buy vehicles again. This is complicated by the fact that Europe keeps pushing automakers towards electrification. The easy solution to this is to import a lot of cheap Chinese cars. The problem? That’ll kill the domestic car industry.
So China is tough, Europe is tough, what about the United States? Here it’s a little more mixed. Stellantis is way behind on updating its products and, aside from the Ram and Wrangler, doesn’t have any cars I’d consider truly competitive in their classes (and both the Ram and Wrangler are getting a bit old). The new Atlas is fine, but Volkswagen is also in trouble in the United States. What’s the next great VW product?
Here’s where BMW and Mercedes do a little better. BMW sales were up slightly year-over-year last quarter as it still makes a lot of popular crossovers/SUVs and even its EVs are up a little thanks, presumably, to good lease deals. Year-to-date Mercedes sales were down about 5% year-over-year in the first half of 2024, but it’s possible that the company can turn that around in the second half of the year. If Mercedes does turn it around it won’t be on EV sales, which were down considerably in the first half of the year.
This brings me back to my original point: Who is Europe building cars for? Chinese automakers are taking over their domestic market, American automakers have a lead on pickup trucks and a big piece of the crossover market, and Europe is not likely to see significant growth anytime soon. The dream of the global platforms that dominated the first part of this century is turning into a nightmare as European automakers make a lot of cars that are being outmatched.
The best contrast is with Japanese and South Korean automakers, who face the same domestic headwinds and the same competition in China. How have companies like Honda, Toyota, and Hyundai done well? All of these companies are way more tied to success in the United States than they are to China and build cars (especially hybrids) that do well in this extremely important market.
European automakers need to dramatically rethink who they are building cars for and what that looks like.
The United States Could Lose 25,000 Car Sales If China’s Ban Goes Forward (No That’s Not A Lot)
The United States is going to protect its automakers. Given that many of them are in places like Georgia, Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania we are going to, as a country, prioritize a relatively small group of mostly factory workers in a handful of states. There are few bipartisan issues anymore, but this is one of them.
The Biden Administration’s plan to ban “connected vehicles” from China is essentially a ban on all Chinese-built cars in the United States.
The Commerce Department proposes making software prohibitions effective in the 2027 model year, while the hardware ban would take effect in the 2030 model year or January 2029. The public has 30 days to make comments before the rules can be finalized.
The Commerce Department said the rules’ primary benefit would be “a reduction in the chance of a catastrophic attack due to the exfiltration of data and remote manipulation of connected vehicles.”
Have you seen what people are doing with pagers? Maybe it’s not a terrible idea. Right now most Chinese cars being imported are the Buick Envision and Lincoln Nautilus, but this could also impact the Geely brands of Volvo, Polestar, and Lotus.
This isn’t a huge number of cars, of course, because this market is basically “protected” from cheap Chinese cars.
The UAW Is Ready To Strike Stellantis
The UAW’s massive stand-up strikes started just a year ago. The hope was that the historic contracts won by the auto workers would prevent more strikes. That’s not what’s happening as UAW President Shawn Fain is claiming that Stellantis is already reneging on its deal and telling workers to be ready to strike according to this Facebook post:
“The evidence is clear that CEO Carlos Tavares is steering Stellantis on a crash course that will cause our members tremendous harm. Given all that we heard, we resolved to meet this make-or-break moment without fear and to fight for the rights of our members,” according to the letter, which the union posted on its Facebook page. “We unanimously recommend to the membership that every UAW worker at Stellantis prepare for a fight, and we all get ready to vote yes to authorize a strike.”
Cool, because that’s what Stellantis needs right now… although, you don’t have to put incentives on a car you never built!
Helene Will Also Damage Car Sales
The photos and videos coming out of Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, and North Carolina are heartbreaking and another reminder of the power of Mother Nature. While cars being destroyed is not the worst nor most devastating outcome, it’s a big deal for the communities impacted.
Ted Smith, president of the Florida Automobile Dealers Association, told Automotive News there are “serious flooding issues in Tampa Bay,” including at Ken Ganley Kia New Port Richey, just north of Tampa and Clearwater, Fla.
Ken Ganley, CEO of his namesake group based near Cleveland, woke up to a flood of missed calls and texts.
“It was about 6 a.m., and I looked at my phone, and said, ‘Oh, God, something’s wrong,’ ” Ganley said.
He said the Kia store in New Port Richey, off Florida’s battered U.S. Route 19, took on at least four feet of water, lost power and could lose up to 700 vehicles.
In addition to new and used vehicles at car dealerships, I keep seeing videos of flooded cars so we might end up with another massive impact on the used car market more broadly.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I was having a debate all yesterday over which song from Kris Kristofferson to play to memorialize him. His original version of “Me and Bobby McGee” or maybe The Highwaymen again? But I love the simplicity of “To Beat The Devil.”
The Big Question
Which European automaker is most ready for the future?
Renault: it has Dacia, so several models sold around the globe. Also they are sharing platforms with Nissan. So they can make cheaper cars economically and with large volumes.
They have the self-developed phev/hybrid drivetrain which seems to be reliable? At least no horror stories so far. The gas engine is apparently related to a relatively ancient 1.6 Nissan unit. No downsizing or turbo – probably helps.
Then they have the long EV experience with the now-ancient Zoe. The current EV’s are competitive: Scenic and Megane seem ok for the price, the Android OS probably saves a lot in development costs and the 22 kW AC charging is useful. The new R5 looks interesting, at least. The EV tech is also shared with Nissan Ariya. Dependence on China? Not sure about batteries etc, but do they even sell cars there?
Ok, the range is mostly crossovers in varying sizes, but those sell, for now. The design in general is ok, but the new head designer was poached from Peugeot and the latest products look a bit too similar, imho.
If VW and Stellantis didn’t make unreliable and largely undesirable cars that would surely help.
Just like movies that cost too much to make and so are made to appeal to everyone, including the very different China market have delivered us a whole lot of unremarkable, poorly written trash propped up by (often shockingly poor) CGI effects to distract from the plot, making cars for the Chinese and trying to sell them in the US has resulted in unremarkable cars propped up by cheap, electronic flashiness. The common problem here is the cost of production almost requires a global market. Movie makers, though, have more of a choice in the matter.
The exotic luxury marques are the ones who are going to be fine.
This really wasn’t touched on in the article. But, the European home market has trended towards a situation that’s growingly not ideal if you happen to be in the business of selling expensive automobiles such as; anything with a star, roundel or four rings on the front. Namely, your home market is increasingly living in a more dense urban spaces, where do to investment in things like public transport, and multi-modal transportation. Your core audience either does not want your flagship, or is going car free. From Millennial and on-down, people and specifically wealthy young people are moving to denser and denser areas. Suburban and rural Europe, is dying. You have estimates of upwards of 80% urban population by 2050. This was the six-foot hoop market for the German lux-brands. MBZ may not be able to move an S-Class outside Shanghai, but Hans the investment banker living 32 kms outside of Frankfort was always there to trade his old one in for a new one. Now, Hans is riding his 12k euro e-cargo bike 2 km home to his loft, and stopping at Aldi every other day. Just for example, take a look at the show Industry. One character is shown owning a car. So, with that, Stellantis, because they seem like the only one that gets 1990’s Europe no long exist. And decreasing size is likely your best path to forward on home court.
This is a good analysis and I agree that, in this one place, Stellantis has a decent grasp of the situation.
Part of the reason the Chinese government has so much money with which to subsidize its carmakers is that the US government gives them tons of cash in the form of interest on the federal deficit (via bonds, etc)
Well, that – and US CEO’s exporting jobs to China, which has created a legion of Chinese Capitalist Oligarchs, and a strong Chinese Middle Class…
When the name Pacifica comes up, I automatically think of the 2005 era cross over. I think it is a name fail just like the use of Zephyr.
Seeing the current state of Chrysler, I’m not sure why they don’t just fold it and rebrand the van a Dodge Caravan.
As far as Helene goes…oh boy. Those of you that live in the North, or out West, have no idea what happened. Where I live, the forecast was for 3-5 ft. of storm surge. We got anywhere from 9-11ft. depending on the zip code.
It was an absolutely freak storm that crushed people. Shit you only read about happening in far-flung places like The Philippines. This wasn’t something like Ian, where everyone knew what was coming. This was more of a “Oh shit. Why is this happening?” situation.
That storm won’t just affect car prices, it will bear its fruit in erased entire GDPs for many areas. It’s really, really awful.
That’s rough, I’m in Tampa but I’m 24 feet above sea level and my house is raised another 3-4 feet for the crawl space. Luckily, I’m not next to the Hillsborough river and I lucked out this time. I didn’t lose power or anything, some people I know got severely fucked. I’m hoping our state takes a deep look and starts expediting all those infrastructure projects that mitigate flooding.
I’m right with ya. However, I’m not sure what can be done to mitigate the friggin’ Gulf. FL is a tricky place to live, but I’m not also convinced the inverse is different in the High Sierras. You really can’t mitigate an avalanche, either.
The point of my post is that unless you are actively looking to see the damage, people go about their day. It reminds me so much of Palestine, OH and that train crash. Except this time it involves a gazillion poor folks.
Er, with sufficient quantities of high explosives you can. Ski patrols and the DOTs of the various mountainous states do it regularly. Also, it’s a hell of a lot easier to predict where avalanches will happen. Give me that over giant hurricanes any day.
“I’m hoping our state takes a deep look and starts expediting all those infrastructure projects that mitigate flooding.”
With Governor Meatball Puddingfingers in charge?
That won’t happen.
Those are funny nicknames! Some might say they are not serious. Almost child-like in mentality.
I was just going to comment on the prelude article that IDK why the prelude even exists. Who is it for? Automakers seems to be building “cars” that no one wants, and then complain about no one buying the cars that no one said they wanted. Hello?!
People want, and have always wanted, inexpensive cars. Which is terribly ironic when an automaker in Germany is named VOLKSWAGEN.
VW has been making and still makes small affordable cars. the Jetta is legitimately cheap starting at 21k these days. the two issues is few still seem to want cars, but more importantly, fewer still want the base anything. They all want the crossover with tech, in reality it seems.
VW’s issue is perceived quality. the TSI woes as well the VR6 concerns and probably even the Audi connection and the resulting concerns about being able to afford even basic maintenance stuff really makes one look towards a Base Camry over a Jetta all day every day.
People are so afraid of China and their cars. I get the sentiment, I do.
The reality is that China is crushing it with their technology. We either have to absorb, learn, and adapt, or the rest of the global market will leave the US in its dust.
Did we not learn anything from the ’80’s? The wave is unstoppable, so we shouldn’t drown while thinking we are “that” dolphin to cut through it.
Hear/Speak/See no evil may work in philosophy, but it ain’t gonna cut the mustard with tangible goods.
the double edged sword here really is the whole living wage thing as dictated by the UAW vs the willingness to look the other way when the Chinese “employees” are selling their souls to the company store and getting treated like slaves.
I don’t see that much of a difference, honestly. I’m well versed in Union work. All it is, is a currency conversion.
China isn’t as bad as we think, when we do basically the same shit.
For the Union worker though, that disparity is what causes a large portion of those workers and their families to push against the vehicles regardless of whether they are good yet or not.
I also have a pretty big issue with the sweatshops and poor human rights record of China in general, so for me, the UAW connection is not the reason I try to avoid Chinese offerings of things, but I have to admit after working with Maquiladora’s and Facilities in Thailand and India, I don’t think many have it all that great in low wage factories. The surprising things though are the number of Japanese and even German auto facilities in the US that seem to really take care of workers both financially and mentally. UAW or not.
I don’t think Pennsylvania has many auto jobs, General Motors had a metal stamping plant in Pittsburgh that closed in 2008. The last plant building complete cars was Volkswagen’s in New Stanton that shut down in 1987.
Closest things there now are the Volvo/Mack truck plant in Macungie and the Harley-Davidson motorcycle plant in York, but I wouldn’t say the tariffs on Chinese passenger vehicles have much of anything to do with those
White/Autocar left way back in 1980
https://www.reuters.com/article/markets/harley-davidson-reaches-deal-to-make-smaller-bikes-in-china-idUSL4N23Q2NC/
it might come to affect the HD York Plant in time.
Clearly Stellantis and it’s dealers need to be sending inventory down South to Helene affected areas. Time to move those Hornets.
haven’t these people suffered enough?
Pretty sure it’s against the Geneva Convention.
They will likely see a surge in the unsold 2023 work trucks as many of the utility companies will need replacements soon.
Major European automakers are too big to fail. The golden parachutes will always be there for the people who caused the problems. The consumer will still get their product. It’s the workers that will probably suffer. But, otherwise, none of this matters.
America is too short-sighted to be competitive and would rather just block the competition. If these guys ran the show in the 50’s, no American would have ever seen a Toyota in person. This is Chicken Tax to the Nth degree.
There is an enormous difference between allowing sales from close democratic/free market allies (Japan, Germany, UK) and enormous geopolitical rivals with state owned and subsidized companies (China).
“Democratic” allies whose own intelligence agencies meddle in their elections, spy on their own people, imprison/persecute journalists, censor their social media, have their mass media controlled by a small number of corporations, engage in a cancel culture spearheaded by government agencies, and imprison whistleblowers. And whose corporations are also heavily subsidized, at the expense of working people.
The USA, China, and Eurozone are a lot more alike than they are different. Perhaps the difference is that China isn’t playing pretend.
I simply cannot take anyone seriously who believes this.
How many journalists are in prison in the US? Which corporations are state-owned? Compare and contrast government censorship of social media in the US and China for me please.
Is the US perfect? Of course not.
I know who I’d rather do business with and where I’d rather live though.
And while the US doesn’t have the shiniest reputation, I’m not sure where our modern day labor camps are like the Uyghurs find themselves in thanks to Chinese policy.
Yes, there’s many complaints to make about Western governments, but to say it’s on the same level as China is hilarious.
We did have a huge incentive to encourage prosperity in Japan and especially in Europe, given the cost in resources and lives of World War II. If anything, the European project that was partially sparked by the Marshall Plan and Bretton Woods (and no, I’m not forgetting the hard work Europeans put in, and they had even more of an incentive to do it) was phenomenally successful in stabilizing a region that had been wracked by destructive wars for centuries, with two monumental conflicts within 30 years. Yeah. we know the CIA was messing around to fight Communism, especially in Italy where the Communists were a real electoral force, but the biggest weapon against it was the success of stable, democratic and prosperous countries, and we promoted that rather than withdrawing or more cynically controlling and intervening there. It also worked with Japan and, eventually, South Korea and Taiwan as well. Too bad we didn’t have the same respect for true self-determination in Latin America or Southeast Asia, else maybe the general trajectory towards stable democracies (mostly there) and improving economic circumstances (still being worked on) wouldn’t have been delayed by our postwar fucking around.
A rich catalog from a man who was truly incredible. I made it to a show just a few years back, and he was still amazing in concert. I wish I had seen him in his prime.
Count yourself lucky, I never got the chance.
Not a bad Han Solo either.
Helene will definitely have a big impact on car sales but not in the way you think. Sure in the short term a lot of dealers lost much or all of their stock and it will be a while before they have stock to sell. However for them the cars are as good as sold since the insurance companies will be “buying” them and w/o any discounts or incentives.
Those dealers who are on higher ground or outside of the effected area will see a big boon once those insurance checks start rolling in and owners who lost their cars need a replacement now.
Yes it will cause at least a temporary rise in prices in the general area as those dealers who still have stock bump the prices or at least don’t have much pressure to discount. Those that did loose their stock will be bidding high at the wholesale auctions and may start buying at auctions outside of their area to get enough vehicles to restock their lots.
VW seems to have lost the plot. Their EV’s are lackluster and expensive. Meanwhile their ICE vehicles aren’t any good either. At least here in the States.
For Stellantis, Carlos needs to go to a pshrink to get his head examined. Making every major stakeholder angry at once is not good business.
Right, what value is VW providing these days? VW used to be more of a “drivers car” – sure they had the GTI, but even the regular Golf, Jetta, Passat were always rated as better drivers than the average sedan. Then they had the TDI cars, and quirky cars like the Beetle. Their interiors were nicer than your average Chevy for not much of a premium price.
Today, they are basically selling vanilla CUVs like everyone else, and they still have the VAG “quirks” like not being reliable. The upcoming EV van will be unique, but the MSRP means it won’t make a dent in attracting more buyers to the brand. Outside of the GTI and Golf R, I see zero reason to consider VW.
Sorry but I read that as VAG queefs. Probably still works though…
This is a hot take, but I’m assuming the Chinese domestic brands are able to annihilate outside automakers on price to content (i.e. they make pretty attractive cars for very low prices) simply because labor costs are so low and they are probably also being helped by the government. It’s not a level playing field.
The other thing the European automakers have gotten wrong is making their products too global, or at least from the standpoint of VW, they are designing shit for the Chinese market and pawning it off on the US domestic market. The US market has always been a problem for VW after they lost their way providing cheap cars that were reliable. Right now VW has zero products on offer that I like, and Audi is almost as bad – especially the new crop of 2025+ cars that look VERY different and I assume appeal to the asian market more than the Euro/American market.
I’m with you on VW’s lack of compelling product. Outside of the Golf R, I can’t think of a single VW offering I have even remote interest in, and even then I can’t see buying a Golf R for $50k. Every time I see an ID.4 or an ID.7 I have to wonder “But why?!”
You’ve seen an ID.7? the only one I’ve seen is the one on the lot at the VW dealership across the street from work.
There is one ID.7 in my neighborhood that I see regularly, though to your point I’m not sure that I can say I have seen but I handful of others.
Granted, I rarely leave the house. but I didn’t know they were even on the market here yet
You’re correct, it is absolutely not a level playing field. Bloomberg states that China has given $231 Billion (USD equivalent) in direct subsidies to their domestic EV market in the past 15 years, and that’s direct cash, not counting sales tax or consumer credits/subsidies. Couple that with little to no worker protections, minimum wages, and far fewer regulations on vehicle quality, safety, and regulation, and it’s no wonder why the buying base is skewed towards domestic EVs in China.
Did people truly expect anything different to happen?
“You’re correct, it is absolutely not a level playing field. Bloomberg states that China has given $231 Billion (USD equivalent) in direct subsidies to their domestic EV market in the past 15 years”
That’s actually a whole lot less than our farm subsidies. But then every country subsidizes their farmers to the hilt and no one complains.
It’s no wonder China is now targeting EU and Canadian farm products for unfair, subsidized competition, because why not?
Stellantis cut its profit margin forecast for the year, citing higher costs to revive its struggling Jeep and Dodge businesses in the U.S.
Struggling because of them not making updates on time and not releasing products the customers want, or having incentives if you don’t have the latest hot thing in the market. Look at Ford and GM offerings, they have so many options plus good deals to get things moving.
Chrysler/Dodge/Jeep: Let’s sit on our hands for years and then act shocked when you fall behind.
Heck, people have been asking for things like Dakota for years and still nothing. The Pacifica is falling behind, the Wrangler should be due for an update any year now, the (Grand)Wagoneer has been a total shit show, the Grand Cherokee has a boring ass engine and the new one doesn’t even fit, Dodge has basically zero offerings (and Ram hasn’t been returned to Dodge yet…).
Solid take.
Let’s not forget that they also canned the HEMI, which was why most people bought Dodges outside of rental fleets. The Hornet is a fail. The Durango has gotten old and is forgettable (sans the overpriced Hellcat). The Gladiator is uncompetitive. Jeep stopped selling the Cherokee, which was their only midsized option. It’s really sad seeing these brands wither on the vine.
I don’t hate the loss of the Hemi; the Hurricane seems like a perfectly adequate/awesome replacement. The problem is, that some vehicles that used to get the Hemi, can’t accept the Hurricane (Grand Cherokee), so now that vehicle is stuck with the (perfectly adequate, but incredibly boring and outdone by competition) V6.
Mind boggling some of the decisions they made. The two I’m most annoyed by are some of their powertrain choices, and it’s not the fact they got rid of the hemi; I can forgive that due to changing regulations making it so hard to realistically keep their V8 alive.
How the hell did they not design the Grand Cherokee and Grand Cherokee L to NOT accommodate the new Hurricane I6? Both of the existing hurricane power configurations would have been perfect to replace the 5.7 and 6.4 hemis.
Pacifica PHEV, it’s been 7 years with no real updates to that powertrain. They had a huge lead, how the hell have they not even made it reliable at this point let a lone make tangible improvements like substantially more efficient, powerful, or go longer distances on electric? But nope, same old shit from 7 (almost 8) model years ago.
Pacifica needs a whole new generation now. It’s still at least competitive, but it’s getting old. And amazingly, the reliability of the PHEV hasn’t improved over the life of it. They’ve been criticized for being unreliable the whole time! Loved while it works, but apparently that’s short lived.
Seems simple enough to make a PHEV mid size pickup with 70 miles of EV range. Sell it for 50k and it checks just about all the boxes. Instead, they’re going to sell the Ramcharger for north of 90k and it’s just all too much.
I’d love to have been a fly on the wall during Stellantis/FCA/whatever they’ve been called product planning meetings over the last decade.
Chrysler? Umm, nothing from us, thanks.
Dodge? Uhhh, we can rebadge an Alfa Romeo, cancel the only cars people care about, and at some point roll out a $70k EV replacement. Yeah, that is the ticket.
Jeep? We think we can sell Wranglers for $70k. Oh, and lets shoot for Range Rover with a new product line. Range Rover buyers will love the customer experience at their local Chrysler dealership after dropping $100k on a SUV.
And senior leadership at the end of the table apparently thought these were good plans.
Make a mid-engine, 2-seat convertible for less than $30k and I’ll buy one.
Toyota totally could for sure. A new MR2 with a Camry V6 would be amazing.
I think I would prefer it have the GR Corolla’s 3 cylinder. Though the reliability of the V6 would be nice. No chance it would be anywhere sub $30k though.
Everyone should rewatch Convoy in honor of Kristofferson. It’s the story of forgotten and oppressed workers fighting for a fair shake.
Imagine Big Nasty’s reaction to automated-driving trucks.
Meanwhile, the Chinese have the $11,400USD BYD Seagull. European Automakers, like their US counterparts, deserve to go under at this point. A sub-$20,000 EV that can comfortably seat 5 adults and get a 200+ mile highway range is not rocket science. Both European and the USA automakers had the tech to do this almost 30 years ago. But that might take sales away from more expensive products with fat margins, so the “solution” is to tariff and/or ban the Chinese? What corrupt assholes who are making these decisions.
I don’t think this is an entirely fair assessment. Chinese EVs continue to be heavily subsidised and have tax credit exemptions, their R&D directly subsidized for years (I’ve seen 231 Billion USD over the past 15 years cited often) and as is well established, their labor laws and costs are far less strict than that of the US/EUs. Not to mention, the longest range Seagull is a claimed 252 mi on the CLTC cycle which is generally 35% higher than EPA, and even higher than the WLPT, which is generally 20% above EPA.
Factor all this together and the Seagull is a vehicle that would 1- likely not land in the US without significant changes to be federalized, 2- cost more than the 12,000 they sell for in foreign markets, likely 2x that if Tariffs go through, 3- not actually have 200 miles of highway range, much less city, 4- be far too small to fit 5 below-average Americans in it (it’s 7″ shorter than a 2015 Yaris, 4″ shorter than a Mitsubishi Mirage hatch, etc.) and 5- Be a 75hp microcar with a 13 second 0-60, which while livable, is not a class of vehicle that has ever sold significant numbers in the US
EVs could certainly be better and more affordable than they are, but it’s clear that the prices of Chinese EVs are so far below what any market outside of China could bear, that it’s not a reasonable comparison. The Chevy Bolt is the closest we got, which Chevy was on the border of profitability at with a ~28-29k cost to manufacture, and no doubt a new generation architecture could get that down, but not by half or even 35% to make it get to a 20k MSRP.
US and European EVs are also subsidized and have tax credit exemptions, their R&D has been subsidized for years, and labor is only a small fraction of the cost of making the EVs.
One of the reasons the Seagull is so cheap is because it uses a small battery with a chemistry that is inexpensive to manufacture. An even larger reason is that BYD produces most of its own components for its cars.
It is very true the Seagull’s real world range is going to be much lower than the CLTC’s 249 miles. Probably closer to 150 miles on a US highway. It’s aero isn’t the best, and a longer sedan version with the aero cleaned up could possibly increase distance per kWh of battery by 50% or more on the highway.
The Bolt is a heavy thing with mediocre aerodynamics. It has about twice as much aero drag as the 2000 GM Precept, therefore using about twice as much energy per mile vs what is possible. Platform efficiency is ignored in favor of perpetuating some lame corporate brand identity in the styling, adding $5,XXX-$1X,XXX to the cost of a 200 mile highway range vehicle in batteries alone. Consider the GM EV1 gets almost twice the range per kWh of battery as the Bolt. Make a vehicle that isn’t some tech bloatware pig on wheels, and you can make the cost and mass of a long range EV go WAY down…
While yes the bolt is not the most aerodynamic vehicle on sale, it’s cd of 0.308 is not all that egregious, and yes a 0.25 is a better target for a next gen product, the MB EQS gets down to a 0.20, albeit with a larger frontal area and “styling”. The other unfortunate reality is that smaller vehicles sell poorly in the north American markets, so while the GM EV was able to hit about 150 wh/mi of efficiency, most super efficient EVs in the US are hitting 250 at best, simply because they need be large enough to be viable to sell.
On the other hand, most Chinese EVs use batteries that are built domestically, and those have been similarly subsidized to the moon the CCP, their production also benefits greatly from cheaper labor and looser mining practices. If there’s one certainty, it’s that China has a massive store of raw battery resources, and are a lot less considerate of the environment than extracting them. It’s not a stretch to say that these things all compound for a double digit percentage in vehicle cost that can’t be made up by the West regardless.
I won’t argue that China does have some extremely advanced EV tech, being a global supplier with the volume of R&D that they have, their battery, motor, and inverter tech is likely cutting edge in terms of efficiency, and that does buy them a legitimate edge. I do think however, established western brands will eventually have costs come down as they get manufacturing under control. GMs Ultium platform continues to be a manufacturing disaster, and upstart companies are struggling to scale towards larger production numbers while being profitable.
All of that to say, it’s a really messy situation, but I do believe that Tariffs are the correct solution for the short/medium term for Western markets to both level the playing field financially, but also to limit the flow of connected vehicles that are very legitimate concerns WRT security.
These are real no car men
Blissing in their no car zen
Filling all the new car yen for nobody
They’re as blind as they can be
Just see what they want to see
No car men, can you see us at all
No car men don’t worry
Take your time, don’t hurry
Leave it all ’til China comes and
Lends you a hand
Ah, la, la, la, la
These are real no car men
Blissing in their no car zen
Filling all the new car yen for nobody
Filling all the new car yen for nobody
Filling all the new car yen for nobody
Mad magazine would have added note: “sung to the tune of ‘nowhere man’ by the beatles”
Which European automaker is most ready for the future? Clearly Morgan, shit never mind they’re British, so um Goggomobil
I was going to cast a vote for Caterham, does Britain not count as Europe? I mean it’s not EU, but it’s still considered Europe as far as continental designations go right?
Now is the time to relaunch Glas. More microcars and absurdly gorgeous and complicated sport coupes, please.
BMW owns them, and seeing as how they’ve been handling MINI and their own Sport Coupes, no thank you.
The Pacifica is definitely competitive, as is the JGC. Perhaps not class-leading, but solid products.
The new Charger doesn’t really have a segment, but at least on specs alone seems competitive with a variety of other cars.
But whats the market for the new Charger? No more Hemi so you’ve alienated the brotherhood of muscle and the price bump puts it out of reach for even the most stretched aspirational Altima driver. Its got an image problem it needs to shake if Stellantis intends for this to be one of their volume movers.
I’m talking mostly about the upcoming gas powered model.
It may not sell, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t competitive.
Again, would love to see the market research that told Stellantis who is going to buy that Charger EV.
People who spend $70k on a Dodge want a V8. People who spend $70k on an EV don’t want a Dodge.
If Dodge wants to transition away from 12 mpg V8s, they should have started with something cheaper, that wasn’t a halo car, to start building some equity with people more willing to give them a shot.
I thought about the Pacifica, but it’s aging and there are a lot more new vans that I think are better. I’ll grant you the JGC is sort of there. The new Charger doesn’t count until it’s truly being delivered.
I’d say the Pacifica is 100% competitive, but to be fair I think all 3 other options are competitive as well. I honestly think it would be easy to make an argument for any of the 4 available minivans in the US. It’s weird cause I can’t think of any other segment that is like that.
I don’t think it’s fair to say there are “a lot” more vans; there’s only four models out there.
The Odyssey is just as old.
The Sienna is way down on power and has an inflexible seating arrangement inside.
The Kia is probably the best in class.
But none of them offer Stow and Go.
I think the Pacifica is still a reasonable choice in the segment. It’s not hopelessly out of the running like the Compass or something.
Right, minivan product cycles are running longer and longer. Even excluding the Grand Caravan where they just kept extending production year after year, the previous Sienna and Town & Country ran for like 9-10 year cycles, with more extensive refreshes along the way – entirely new dashboards, not just wheels/grille/trim bits. Odyssey is on the same path.
The Chrysler vans were always such a core product, it’s one vehicle they were always going to do a good job in making as competitive as they could, even if that wasn’t the case with their other products.
The new Charger, IMO, has been barely a step above vaporware. I’d be shocked (so to speak) if it makes it to market in less time than VW’s ID.Buzz.