The first step in fixing a problem is recognizing what the problem is in the first place. I think of all the major Detroit automakers it’s probably Ford that’s best at recognizing the problem, even if the company isn’t that close to a solution. Is Ford’s CEO the only one who gets it or is he being blinded by being too much of a gearhead?
Today’s installment of The Morning Dump is all about the future, even if all I’m thinking about is the Astros game against Detroit’s own Tigers that’s happening today. That one is going to be tough for me. I want the Astros to beat them but, at the same time, I recognize that the Tigers are a way better story.
It’s the same for Tesla and BYD in China. It looks like both companies had a great Q3 and I’m inclined towards an American company crushing overseas. Still, I want Tesla to re-focus on affordable products, which is where BYD shines. If Ford has a big future, how about the rest of the Detroit automakers? Well, Stellantis is having to recall almost all of its plug-in hybrid Jeeps and GM is still paying for its Cruise debacle. So not great.
Aight, I need to get a whole day’s worth of work done before the first pitch so let’s gooooooo.
Enthusiast Products Are ‘Our Business’
I’ve been thinking about writing ‘The Bull Case for Ford’ as a TMD for a while, premised on the automaker being in what I think might be the best position to win the future. Why don’t I? Whenever I get the idea in my head the company does another recall or releases another questionable product and I decide not to do it.
Looking broadly at what used to be Detroit’s Big 3 I think you’d have wanted to be Stellantis during the pandemic. Its costs were low, its products were cheap to make, and it made a ton of money. Right now I think you’d rather be General Motors, which has a diverse EV portfolio and is still making great trucks and profitable small crossovers. So why is the future shaped like a blue oval?
The last time I decided to write this post I was in England looking at a bunch of fast Fords that I grew up loving. Clearly, at the heart of this brand are some amazing and iconic cars. And then I walked over to the Ford Capri EV stand. I haven’t driven the Capri, but I’ve driven VW MEB-platform cars before, and they’re fine. One dressed up like a crossover with some cues borrowed from the vintage Capri just doesn’t do it for me.
Ford CEO Jim Farley did a big interview with Car Magazine at a launch for the new, MEB-based European Explorer and it’s giving me a little hope. I’m going to start with the bit that everyone seems to be paying attention to:
‘We’re getting out of the boring-car business and into the iconic-vehicle business,’ he tells me. ‘We’d always competed at the heart of the passenger-car market, which didn’t work out too well for Mondeo, Focus and Fiesta. They were loved by a lot of customers but they could never justify more capital allocation – unlike commercial vehicles.’
[..]
‘Ford never funded enthusiast products – they were always a side business. Now with Mustang, Raptor and Bronco, they’re our business,’ says Farley.
Having driven the Puma ST I agree that it’s a fun vehicle and not another boring crossover, though the fun versions don’t seem long for this world. The long-rumored Mustang Raptor also comes up, and Farley seems to hint that we’ll see it sooner rather than later, and that we’ll see more RS-badged cars. Farley also says that Ford can “take on Porsche” with the Mustang and that more money will be put into that brand, which sounds good.
The MEB bit has always bugged me, though. Ford has touted its skunkworks team that’s trying to develop a cheap electric platform to underpin the next generation of the company’s EVs, but is that just throwing ideas at the wall and waiting to see what sticks?
If there’s hopefulness to be drawn from this interview it’s in Farley’s quiet admission that the MEB play with Volkswagen was a short-term solution to the problem of getting an EV platform to Europe and that he understands that China and Tesla are the real competitors and that beating them requires a purely Ford-built solution:
‘If your bet is the digital experience as a differentiator, you can’t use someone else’s electric architecture. If I use MEB, then another architecture in China, one in North America and another for export, that’s multiple different software. Software that has to be written to the individual module for propulsion, braking, steering, seats. If [Ford] is very committed to digital differentiation, it’s impossible to have that complexity.
‘One of my biggest bets as CEO is our platforms, including our electric architectures. There will be places where we work with each other, such as MEB. But in the future that will be harder, not easier.’
The ‘No more boring cars’ line gets the headlines and I, too, couldn’t resist. But it’s the quote above that’s key. If an automaker is going to survive it needs more than a distinct brand identity for its products. If Ford wants to sell in any volume it needs a digital experience and a platform that are unique to Ford. It doesn’t really have that now. General Motors does in Ultium and we’ll see if the cheaper Equniox EV is a hit.
If there’s a bull case for Ford it’s that it’ll be able to develop a scalable and affordable platform that works like a Tesla and looks like a Ford. The bear case is that it’s super hard. It’s the hardest thing Ford has done in 120 years. I’m not sure it can pull it off, but unlike Stellantis or even Volkswagen, I can at least articulate what a future Ford looks like.
That’s not nothing.
Will Tesla Or BYD Sell More EVs In China In Q3?
You can never count out Tesla because it’s probably the most flexible large automaker in the world. It only makes a small number of products and it has enough of a war chest to throw crazy discounts and deals to make up volume whenever it wants.
China is Tesla’s most important market, and it’s also the most difficult place to be an electric carmaker. The competition is cutthroat, and the consumers are wary of spending money given all the lingering economic uncertainty. Tesla’s big ploy, in addition to price cuts, has been offering discounted insurance. So far it seems to be working.
Domestic automaker BYD has also been playing the discount game and was rewarded with a strong first half of the year. What BYD offers is a more diverse range of cars and super cheap EVs like the BYD Seagull, which has a nice interior and decent range for the price equivalent of a pack of Wrigley’s Doublemint gum (ok, about $10k, but not far off).
We’ll find out soon enough who was on top in BEV sales (BYD almost certainly sold more cars since it also sells hybrids), but there’s some early data to consider
According to CnEVPost, BYD sold a total of 164,956 passenger BEVs in September, an increase of 9.1% year-over-year. Its PHEVs were even more successful, reaching 252,647 vehicles in the month. In total, BYD sold 419,426 vehicles with a plug during the month. That brings the total BEV sales for BYD up to 443,426 units in Q3.
Now we’re just waiting on Tesla to report, though we know that the company is expected to sell more than 460,000 BEVs in Q3 globally.
Stellantis Recalling 194,000 Plug-In Jeep Hybrids
Earlier this month I wrote about an impending recall of Jeep PHEV vehicles that were catching on fire whilst parked. The recall is now coming.
From Reuters via Automotive News:
The Italian-American automaker is recalling some 2020 through 2024 model year Jeep Wrangler and 2022 through 2024 Jeep Grand Cherokee plug-in hybrids. The issue involves a battery component, the company said.
The Chrysler-parent company said the fires occurred when the vehicles were parked and turned off. It estimates 5 percent of affected vehicles might have the defect.
Stellantis said vehicle risk is reduced when the battery charge level is depleted and said owners are advised to refrain from recharging and should park away from structures or other vehicles. The company said a remedy is imminent.
I like the 4xe, and it’s been one of the brighter spots in a dim year for Stellantis, so this has to sting a bit.
GM Paying $1.5 Million Fine Over Lack Of Disclosure
Almost exactly a year ago a Cruise Robotaxi in San Francisco was out on duty when it was involved in an accident that resulted in the Cruise vehicle dragging a pedestrian 20 feet to the side of the road. This was obviously a big issue, made worse by Cruise’s decisions to withhold information from regulators, leading to its self-driving license being revoked, forcing it to temporarily shut down its taxi service, and seeing its executive team either leave or get fired.
Cruise’s vehicles are back on the road, but the company isn’t yet done with the fallout. From Reuters via the Detroit Free Press:
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on Monday that General Motors’ self-driving car unit Cruise will pay a $1.5 million fine after it failed to disclose details of a serious October 2023 crash involving a pedestrian.
Under the settlement, Cruise must submit to NHTSA a corrective action plan on how it will improve its compliance with reporting of serious incidents and face enhanced reporting requirements for at least two years.
GM’s President Mark Reuss said it would take five years to win back trust, so just four years to go.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Scottish producer/artist SOPHIE was amazing, and her tragic death is an incalculable loss to music. If you don’t know her, I suggest this profile/review of SOPHIE’s posthumously released self-titled album from our old colleague Jia Tolentino.
The Big Question
Can Ford do it?
When Ford says they are getting out of the boring car business, that would tell me they no longer want to be a volume automaker. I doubt that’s actually true, but that’s what I would interpret that as.
You can create boring cars by simply being ubiquitous. Mustangs are super common. I bet the current ones are as much of a hoot to drive as my ’05 GTO, but I find them uninteresting.
I suspect, though, they really more implying they want to make vehicles that punch above their weight class in comparison to others in the market, which would be a laudable goal. I hope they succeed.
We hate boring cars like the fiesta st and the focus rs which is why we killed them. If you slap an rs badge on a fucking escape and call it sporty I’m going to go insane
Building unreliable vehicles means when it’s time for the customer (that’s all you are, don’t ever forget it) to change vehicles, they aren’t going to stay if it was full of Ford-esque recalls and build quality (job #1 in some alternate universe).
I keep buying Toyota’s because they all last significantly longer, with far less fixes compared to the Ford’s I’ve owned.
Make a reliable product and the rest will follow. It’s not like you’re one of the oldest vehicle manufacturers in the world…
Clark B in the comments below hit the nail on the head. “No more boring cars” sounds great to us enthusiasts and he knows we lap it up, but the overwhelming majority of the car-buying public loves boring cars and buys them by the millions. Just witness how many crossovers are sold each year. People want comfy seats and a nice radio, maybe some gee-whiz power doodads inside.
Building “boring” (read: everyday) cars is exactly what makes a manufacturer successful for a century or so. Sports cars are fun but let’s be honest they don’t keep the lights on. We’re lucky when a company decides to have some fun and build one.
I hope Ford can do it, but I have to say, my hopes are limited. If their definition of “iconic” is the new Capri, even if they plan todo it with a new platform, then they might see sales increases, but not enthusiasm.
Looking down on the Mondeo, Focus and Fiesta is the most counter-active thing you can do for Ford’s identity, when those are the cars people miss from them. Ford fans are still driving their discontinued ST’s and RS’s and loving them. Does Farley think that people are excited for the Explorer ST, or does he think that young parents and college students will be squeezing baby seats or dorm furniture into a Mustang’s non-existent rear seat? For most of the world, the “exciting ford” has always been a compact with a spicy cam or a turbo.
From the Cortina and Escort to the Focus and Fiesta ST, it starts with an affordable, economical one-car solution that can go racing. People can take those Fords to autocross, track and rally events as-is, any upgrades are optional. You can take a Focus ST to Willow Springs and lap it all day, or go to an SCCA autocross and put down competitive times in G-Street, and take the kids out for ice cream afterward without anyone crying about legroom.
Now, the closest thing the world market gets is the Puma ST, a substitute somewhere that rates around “acceptable, I guess, if you really hate the GTI”, and America gets the Mustang and Bronco, one too impractical and the other too expensive. There’s the Mach-E and Explorer ST in between, but unlike a real Mustang or ST, nobody’s cross-shopping those against a lifetime supply of Creatine.
So, what does Farley mean by “exciting”? Does he MEAN it, or does he intend to make some “stylish” X6 clones with “sporty” skateboard platforms? Are we getting a new RS, or a crossover with launch control?
Is Ford looking to the EV future as a chance to forgo chassis tuning in favor of cheap torque vectoring? That’s what “digital differentiation” smells like to me. It smells like artificial feedback, various drive modes, artificial noises and a traction control system that does an easy power-slide. Smells like all spice, no flavor. Smells like every other $50K EV.
Yeah, totes, Jimbo. Let’s stop making the STs and RSs in favor of amorphous crossover blobs. That’ll get the juices of the automotive public flowing!
So, you’re going to Build Excitement? Yeah, that’ll work.
“The Italian-American automaker”
This still gives me pause. Aren’t they a Dutch automaker? Or is a a Franco-German automaker? What is it?
Perhaps the Stellantis name explains it. They are from the lost continent. I hear there are lax money laundering and tax rules there.
Hahah, I mean… hmm… Franco-Dutch-Italian-American
Doesn’t Ford need to actually sell cars to be able to make boring ones?
Cars they currently make: The Mustang. This is not a boring car. Or is Not-Chris Farley implying that it is a boring car? If so…that’s a weird strategy.
Even if we think back to the other cars they shamelessly shitcanned, the Fusion, Focus and Fiesta. These also were not particularly boring cars, especially in the Sport, ST/RS and ST versions, respectively.
I just worked on an ’03 Focus to flip it. Remember when cheap, basic cars were fun?
Ford doesn’t have to stop selling boring cars. As many other commenters have pointed out, Ford built its reputation on well built, boring cars. I still think their decision to axe all sedans and small cars wasn’t wise. One thing I used to think Ford did really well was selling very different versions of the same vehicle. You could (and can) buy a base spec automatic Mustang. Or you can get one with a V8 and a manual. When the Focus and Fiesta were around, you could get them as performance models, or just buy a regular one. I believe there was a more powerful/athletic Fusion as well, but I can’t remember. My point is that they built boring cars, but they made those same cars interesting if you wanted more performance. And I guess they still do, to an extent, but only if you want a Mustang, SUV, or truck.
You could absolutely get a twin turbo v6 fusion. Hell you could even tune it for an extra 80 hp if you really wanted a sleeper car.
See also… “Quality is job one”
Quality is job wan.
Ford sucked me in with the 87 Turbo Coupe… this opened my eyes to the wonderful world of Ford SVT. Since then, I’ve owned the TC, SVO, SHO and currently have a Mustang.
One car lead to the rest… but you know what Ford? It also led to a Windstar, Freestyle, and the Flex.
Do cool shit that drag folks in and they tend to stick around.
They need to find something to fill the Fiesta gap. I wasn’t a fan of those cars in particular, but if they could find a way to produce a small, cheap, decently fun car for ~$20K with a manual option, they might take some of Honda’s market share. Maybe I’m still living in 2019, but I dream of zippy, manual compact cars, and if Ford is trying to get out of the Boring Car business, they need something people can hoon around in that isnt a $70K Mustang.
I just want to take issue with the lede photo. The Ford Five Hundred was a perfectly cromulent automobile. The original high sedan, and they made a wagon-ish version as well.
That is all.
It was also ridiculously cavernous inside, I remember when my boss at the time bought one and we had to move a bunch of boxes, flipped the back seat down and it was like SUV room in a sedan. I had a Grand Marquis at the time and was more used to that, Panther platform was never known for space efficiency
The Ford Five Hundred embiggens the smallest man.
It’s a perfectly cromulent word.
Yes, but probably not in the way you think.
Ford need to produce two types of automobiles and only two types.
Enthusiast Vehicles
Commercial Vehicles
If Ford builds proper commercial vehicles with commercial grades of durability and reliability recalls should be much less of an issue. These vehicles are perfect for the person who needs a car as an appliance. What Ford needs to do is offer more commercial grade light vehicles. Like the Maverick, the upcoming Maverick Based van, making the Lightning an actual F-150m etc.
Enthusiast Vehicles should be built off of the commercial vehicles.
I got as far as “I want the Astros to beat them” and will not read any further out of protest.
Am I missing something here?
While this born to rule fool is yapping about turning Big Blue into Porsche, their crown jewel innovation that they needed to protect with a patent was software to better serve ads in-cabin while driving and sell your data to any fool with a tin star on his belt. Meanwhile their tentpole profit center is primarily in light trucks?
Does any of this even remotely sound like an enthusiast company?
F-150 Super Mammoth King Raptor XT: We won’t tell your insurance company* where you’ve been
*Insurance Mediation mode can be unlocked for $200/month through Ford BlueMax
Don’t try being Tesla. Ain’t nobody gonna out-Tesla Tesla. Make EV’s, yes. But make EV’s that don’t, you know, eat control arms every 50k miles or say that condensation in taillights is normal. Maybe have more than four buttons for drivers to control car functions. Or cost an arm and a leg and a kidney to repair.
That said, making an EV into a Q-ship is easy. Ford can easily make engaging EV’s that range from tomato paste to ghost pepper salsa on the spiciness scale. Just like the original Mustang. The milquetoast 6 cylinder versions were the volume sellers while people could terrorize the drag strip with a hotter and pricier 8 cylinder. Give us affordable EV’s, darn it!
I bought a Kia ev6 cause basically i didn’t want a tesla, and I wanted a dealer network and buttons.
What I hate about my EV6 is the stupid Tesla like door handles…. Shame on you Kia/hyundai
yet they cancelled the Focus ST, which… as far as I know, was a huge success. I still see them everywhere.
Probably because any non-ST Focus from that generation has been scrapped due to transmission issues, so if you see one today, it’s going to be an ST
I see an insane number of those things considering how hard they famously try to die. Be fun to start tallying how many transmissions on the side like a rifle’s kill count