I was hanging out with a friend who works as an automotive consultant, and I introduced him to a colleague as someone involved with autonomous vehicle companies. He quickly corrected me “Actually, more aerospace now.” It was a very telling correction. Just a few years ago, everyone was talking about autonomous cars and now the hype has died. Are electric cars the next hype bubble?
The risk with a morning news roundup like The Morning Dump is that as conflicting data assaults us from multiple sides, we get lost in the cannon fire—the fog of war. Our goal here is not to describe the sounds of battle as much as it is to explain what the battle means and where it’s headed. Ideally, the data builds upon other data to create a clearer and fuller picture. I think a lot of the last month of these TMDs has been thesis clashing with antithesis and it’s probably time for a little bit of synthesis.
Recriminations and I-told-you-so reactions are coming fast in the electric vehicle space. Is that fair? There are a few data points I want to look at that I hope will better position us to understand what is and isn’t possible in the electric vehicle revolution. And then I want to look at labor because, guess what, that’s related as well.
Then a look at 0% financing, which isn’t a thing so much anymore.
EVs Are Dead, EVs Are Alive, WTF Is Going On?
The big stories from the Japan Mobility Show were the re-ascendance of the Japanese auto industry after years of mediocre performance and mixed feelings about electrification. Everyone is losing their minds about electrification. We’ve talked at length about this and about GM’s slowing of its electrification plans.
Here’s a fun stat: Ford lost $36,000 per every electric vehicle it sold in the third quarter of 2023. That number comes via InsideEVs, which notes that:
Despite the higher volume, EV losses continued to rise in the third quarter, with the company posting an operating loss of $1.3 billion, up from $1.1 billion in the previous quarter and more than double its loss from Q3 2022.
This means that Ford lost around $36,000 for every electric vehicle it sold in the quarter, surpassing its estimated $32,350 loss per EV in the second quarter. For the entire year, the carmaker expects a full-year loss of $4.5 billion for its EV unit. Why is that, though?
Ford said the Q3 loss is “attributable to continued investment in next-generation EVs and challenging market dynamics.” Regarding the latter, the carmaker noted that “many North American customers interested in buying EVs are unwilling to pay premiums for them over gas or hybrid vehicles.” This puts pressure on EV prices and profitability, according to Ford.
This is a fun way to look at the numbers, though it’s not a perfect one-to-one. Investments in EVs do not perfectly track sales because there’s a huge lag time between investment and production for a company like Ford. The first F-150 of every generation sold, for instance, likely loses hundreds of millions of dollars until those investments are recouped as more copies of that original truck are sold. Still, the gap for EV investment is getting worse for the company.
Toyota has been resistant to electrification, stating that electric cars are further out than “the media would like us to believe” as Akio Toyoda said last year. Was he correct all this time? There’s a piece in Automotive News today with the headline “Japan’s slow walk to EVs starts to look wise.” Here’s the gist of it:
Toyota CEO Koji Sato echoed the zeitgeist. Carmakers shouldn’t rush EVs if the products aren’t ready and demand isn’t sustainable, he said. Japan should step up its game in EVs — but electrics are just one arrow in a quiver of technologies that will help rein in carbon emissions, he said.
“Battery EVs are the missing piece,” Sato said. “But we are not going to launch something imperfect just because there’s a deadline. We will ensure they are developed to perfection.”
There were a lot of EVs at the Tokyo show, but not much that was going to be on sale this year. Or, likely, even next year.
Here’s some weird conflicting data: Battery electric vehicles (that is, full EVs) are projected by S&P Mobility to have reached a 47% year-over-year increase in sales in October.
Continued development of battery-electric vehicle (BEV) sales remains a constant assumption for 2023 although some month-to-month volatility is expected. October 2023 BEV share is expected to reach 7.5% and bringing year-to-date BEV sales growth to an estimated 47%. Looking at the remainder of the year, beyond potential future pricing developments by Tesla, the launch of several new BEVs is expected to produce incremental sales gains as the year comes to a close.
That’s a lot of cars. Here’s a quote from analyst Lee Hyun-soo in The Korea Times this weekend talking about Hyundai I think sums it up pretty well:
“Even if the EV market is exhibiting double-digit growth, its pace is slowing down,” the analyst said. “Price competition is also getting tougher. Sales for EVs account for only a slim portion out of total auto sales, the change in market circumstance bodes ill for the automakers’ valuation.”
Alright Georg-y boy, let’s synthesize a bit.
Most automakers have at least one sports car for sale, with some automakers offering multiple sports cars. If you combine the sales of all Challengers, Camaros, and Mustangs last year you get about 127,000 vehicles sold in the United States. Through the first nine months of 2023, there have been 873,000 battery electric vehicle sales in the U.S., and the market will almost certainly reach over 1 million. That’s a lot of vehicles, though spread across a lot of models (or, more accurately, spread across two models from Tesla and then everything else).
The conundrum here for automakers is that Tesla has such a lead in cost and branding that it’ll take a gargantuan effort to catch up, and every one of those automakers will lack the advantages that Tesla had as a first mover (lack of competition, high-income buyers willing to pay a premium, government incentives in the form of carbon offset credits). But to make that investment means to spend so much money with no promise that, as an automaker, the market or the customers will be there.
So was Toyota right to slow-play EVs? I don’t think so.
If GM, Ford or Toyota could have seen the opportunity and built a true Tesla-fighter, any one of those companies absolutely would have. The EV market will continue to grow, though perhaps not at a fast enough pace to absorb all these new EV models. The problem is that GM, and Ford, and Toyota were too late. GM was the closest with the Bolt and I’ve already complained enough about that.
But it is convenient for Toyota that, given that it was late to the party, it can be more strategic with how it catches up with Tesla and BYD. The medicine has to be swallowed eventually, however, because government mandates and Tesla/BYD lowering costs mean that automakers risk being left behind at some point, even if it’s not clear when that point is.
I see three ways out for traditional automakers:
- A huge technological breakthrough, like solid-state batteries, massively lowers battery costs and improves performance.
- An automaker finds a niche that isn’t well filled by Tesla products (Ford’s T3 truck could be one).
- Automakers suck it up and spend until they can reach price parity and use their advantages (name rec/customer loyalty/dealerships) to soak up on-the-fence buyers.
It’s not easy, but it’s not impossible.
BYD Reported Record Quarterly Profit In Q3
Chinese electric automaker BYD is that country’s answer to Tesla (although some Teslas actually use BYD batteries). Once known mostly as a prominent maker of cell phone batteries, BYD has fought its way to becoming the biggest maker of electrified automobiles (i.e. hybrids and BEVs) in the world.
The company is also printing money, making a record $1.42 billion in profits in Q3 2023.
Net profit for the third quarter reached 10.41 billion yuan ($1.42 billion), a 82.2% increase from a year earlier, on a 38.5% rise in revenue to 162.2 billion yuan, BYD said in a market filing. It flagged earlier this month that third-quarter net profit could as much as double.
That was a smaller increase than the second quarter when profit was up 145%. The third-quarter earnings was within its forecast range of between 9.55 billion yuan and 11.55 billion yuan.
See. It’s possible to be a successful EV automaker, though it certainly helps to live in a country that handed out billions in automotive incentives and already have a longstanding battery business.
GM And UAW Reach A Tentative Deal
Details are scarce at the moment, but it sounds like General Motors and the United Auto Workers union have reached a tentative deal, according to CNN and multiple outlets.
Terms of the deal are not yet known, but it is expected to be along the lines of the deals already announced at Ford and Stellantis, including an immediate 11% raise in the top hourly wage rate, additional pay hikes totaling another 14% during the four-and-a-half years of the contract, as well as a return of the cost-of-living adjustment meant to protect workers from rising prices.
It’ll be interesting to see how the battery plant issue was resolved.
RIP 0% Financing
When money was cheap, it was much easier for companies (and dealers) to offer 0% financing to customers. Money is no longer cheap and 0% financing has basically vanished.
Heres’ a wild stat via Automotive News:
If there’s a company that’s offering 0% financing it could mean that product isn’t selling or the automaker is hoping to make up some market share. Carfax has a list of cars with 0% financing deals and it’s a pretty telling mix that includes also-rans like the Nissan Armada, Ford Edge, and Subaru Solterra, and market share plays like the Nissan Rogue.
The Big Question
Would you buy a Ford Edge if you got 0% financing? What about a Nissan Titan? How big of a deal is that to you, right now? Or are you holding off on buying until rates (maybe) get better?
The data point you may have missed is Hyundai Group is the second largest EV maker in the US, and has had record-breaking sales this year across its lineup, despite the fact you cannot get the Federal tax credit. Edmunds recently released a real world test showing Hyundai Group vehicles are the fastest charging in the country, with their models taking the top 3 spots and the top 7 of 10 spots. The problem with “EV demand” is crappy EVs made by most of the legacy manufacturers. Hyundai is having no trouble selling Ioniq 5’s and EVs currently make up 18% of the California market. Toyota and GM and Ford have a long way to go to catch up.
I don’t think EVs will be mainstream for awhile. They’re basically toys for the rich right now, which is what early gas cars were for awhile before they became mainstream. Plus, it’s very political for some people on both sides, so it makes people want to stay away from the whole EV scene. Lastly, the economy probably won’t allow any of the newer generations to afford EVs. Most people my age can’t even afford a Mirage right now. Much less even a Bolt.
> Would you buy a Ford Edge if you got 0% financing? What about a Nissan Titan? How big of a deal is that to you, right now? Or are you holding off on buying until rates (maybe) get better?
Holding off until the *cars* get better. Battery life, range, safety/combustibility, stabilized user experience trends with buttons and stuff, affordability, etc. And a better charging network, because I’m never giving Musk a dime.
The state of California is rejiggering the EV tax credit to be focused on low-income buyers, since they realized the vast majority of people taking advantage of the tax credit didn’t really need the help buying a car. The major problem with this, as I see it, is that there are really no EV’s that a low income family can afford, so an EV tax credit for low income buyers isn’t really going to encourage EV adoption. Until the car makers can offer an EV that most people can buy, the EV space will continue to be dominated by luxury and luxury-adjacent brands/models that won’t help widespread adoption.
This article fails to mention that BYD does not make only electric vehicles. So if these are total profits from the company it would be misleading to lead people to believe it is purely EV profit. They sell gas powered cars all over the world.
It’s possible there’s a simple problem: if you occasionally drive long distances and don’t want a Tesla, a BEV sounds like a pain in the ass because of different charging standards, broken chargers, myriad apps to download, etc. Also, if I buy, let’s say, a frigging GM or Ford BEV, when it breaks I have to go to a dealer that DOESN’T WANT TO SELL OR WORK ON THEM. When they get that sorted, which I hope they will, the dam will break.
Toyota will be an irrelevance. Perhaps not because of Tesla, but because of BYD.
When someone goes to shop for an EV, even when Toyota has EVs to sell, they won’t go to the Toyota dealership, because they won’t know that Toyota has EVs to sell.
We snagged an Ionic Hybrid at 0% for 7 years on 2020. LOL I love paying them back with $$$’s that have lost about 10% or more in value. Also beside needing a rear wiper it is a great commuter car. My wife gets 50+ mpg. We need that to offset the Lexus Camp mobile tree house SUV that get 17.4
yes, Toyota was right….sheesh
EVs won’t catch on & stick unless gas gets crazy expensive and stays crazy expensive for a while. Right now you can save $10k/100k miles by charging an EV at home instead of filling up with gas, which apparently isn’t enough to really move the needle.
CAFE, CAFE, CAFE. When the Feds tell you how much CO2 your products can emit as a fleet, you don’t have a lot of options. Of course the OEMs would like to continue selling ICEs forever. However, laws and regulations exist and basically mandate that BEVs must catch on over time.
Its more like $13k savings over 8 years (ave US length of ownership), 114k miles (14,263 mi/yr US ave), 32mpg (US ave for sedans/wagons), $3.60/gal (US ave). You’re absolutely right though, I crunched the same numbers not too long ago and it was $18k when gas was higher. It’ll go back up, we’re past peak oil. OPEC has been trying to shrink production for the last 18 mo, finally they’re becoming disciplined enough to actually do it (one country usually tries to cheap and make $$$), but it came just as summer driving season ended. Next year is the year.
EV sales are roughly 1/12 right now perhaps going to be 1M for 2023, which is pretty good for realistic thinking. Did they think the whole country is going to be knocking down the doors to trade in the 250M cars here, considering the average age of the vehicle is 12.5 yrs and pre-pandemic the majority of the country was in the $10k sub used market. How many EV’s did they think they would be selling, forget that building them is a disaster and they cost a fortune. The big 3 are f’d cause they are shitty companies and build crap. I remember many years ago like the Toyota being behind people were saying BMW was behind and slow on EVs, yet they sold 100k in Q3. Biggest problem is the big 3 customer base, most of them are not you typical EV convert, anyone that wants an EV who the heck wants overpriced big 3 garbage.
Stereotypical big3 customer story: “Well, my Mom bought a Tesla, paid several thousand to get a charger installed, then their electric bill went up by over $400 a month! F that! She sold it 6months later.”
When I did the math on ~$.20/kWh peak in their area times 3miles/kWh (low end for a Y) she would have had to been driving 6000 miles a month. I only commented on it quite mildly as I have to work with him in the field. Some people just aren’t ready.
The other story from someone else about a Lightning worked out to almost 10k miles/month. My face gave me away on that one
I self-finance, so I’ll buy when I have enough money saved and interest compounded.
As far as an Edge or Titan goes, I’d have to think long and hard. Even if I could get good financing, I’d be into those vehicles for the long haul since resale value on them is poor. Neither brand I’m wild about.
EVs sales will be there when charging is as reliable as gas station. Why can I swipe my card at gas pump, but EV charging requires me to download an app, enter all my personal information, all my car’s information, payment information, only to find out I’m at a broken charger. Had to go out of town this weekend, took my gas car, as my EV would have added hours of aggravation and inconvenience. Also, we’re finding out batteries have a shorter lifespan than ICE cars. Too much uncertainty now, but we’ll get there, I’m sure.
As I said above, EV sales will have to be there as federal CAFE mandates dictate that they be there! Automakers are very busy finding ways to make them profitable and palatable. And as they become profitable and palatable, things like charging inconvenience will not be reason enough to avoid them.
I’m seriously skeptical about those mandates holding: that’s an incredibly short time frame for the infrastructure to be built—from generation to grid to parking spots with working chargers. In my* opinion it would take Moonshot levels of commitment or more.
Stand in front of a multi-level parking garage, and ask a master electrician what it would take to put chargers in 1/10 of the spots—then stand back
*uninformed: I’ve worked as an electrician’s helper, but it’s not my trade
My company’s building used to be an injection molding shop. As a result, we have 240V 3-phase at 2000 amps. Even going with Level 2 chargers, that would only give us 50-60 chargers in active use, assuming we weren’t actually doing any work as a company. We’re going to need serious electrical upgrades globally in order to support widespread EV adoption. Now, if only we could develop fusion power plants that would fit in an intermodal container…
CAFE can be changed with a new President.
“Why can I swipe my card at gas pump, but EV charging requires me to download an app…”
No it doesn’t.
I rented a Polestar 2 from Hertz in LAX this past spring to drive around LA and weekend in Palm Springs.
I charged that car at multiple different EV chargers in LA and Palm Springs – and never downloaded a single app.
Because those chargers all take credit cards.
Urban, Freeway here. I always charge my short-range EV at home. Driving around L.A., I would occasionally like to add coulombs mid-journey using my Visa card. But I will not “download an app, enter all my personal information, all my car’s information, payment information” etc. for the privilege of doing so.
So, with that preamble, PLEASE reveal where you charged your Polestar with a credit card. This would improve my quality of life.
Hey Scott –
That mall on Sunset at Crescent Heights (Laurel Canyon) – where the Crunch, CB2, Trader Joes and Starbucks are – There’s a handful of chargers in the parking garage. Entrance off Laurel.
Also at the Civic Center in Santa Monica behind the Viceroy – There’s tons of chargers there in that parking lot.
In Palm Springs – where Palm Canyon and Indian Canyon split behind the BofA – there’s a handful of chargers in that lot.
Says the guy selling the Bees Forks.
In my experience 0% financing almost always involves giving up some direct cash incentives and is rarely a good deal, especially if you have a decent down payment. As always you have to do the math on how much interest it would save you over the course of the loan, but at best you generally break even and there’s no chance of refinancing later to a lower interest rate to make it an even better deal.
Lol, Bees Forks is amazing.
I refuse to learn the actual spelling for that monument to mediocrity. 😉
I call ’em Beezy Forks just because it sounds silly …
What i want to know is whether Hardigree is a Hegelian or a Marxist. More dialectics, please.
I’m a Fauvist.
lol! and i had you pegged as a Cubist…
live and learn.
> i had you pegged
Phrasing
I wonder if Ford and GM would’ve done better financially and sales-wise if they hadn’t spent so much of their resources developing EV trucks where the technology is least well suited for the intended audience’s real (or imagined) use cases instead of more hybrids and PHEVs.
There’s a large, underserved segment of the BEV early adopter market who Ford has ignored and GM pulled away from–those needing smaller and cheaper commuter cars where BEVs’ are best suited and absolute range is not as important as efficiency, maneuverability, and quick enough charging.
As popular as the Bolt became late in its production run, a cadre of buyers just wanting a runabout still considered even the compact Bolt too large for their needs. Ford especially could’ve offered a basic electric Fiesta equivalent with about 200 miles of range and competitive fast charging capabilities for around $30 grand and enjoyed some success.
While I agree that small runabouts like the Bolt are by far the best application of BEVs (especially in these early stages), trucks and large crossovers have a few things going for them that make them attractive to automakers as a BEV platform.
Well put. Tesla was successful because they sold cutting edge “luxury” cars that commanded higher margins that could absorb more of the added cost of batteries. Even when people were buying more small cars, it would have been damn-near impossible to turn a profit with the tech 10-15 years ago. All of the established brands just followed suit with their most profitable vehicles – trucks and SUVs, but just being an EV doesn’t make a car as special any more.
All your arguments reflect the US car market – which is unique in all the world for it’s purported demand for large, inefficient, expensive vehicles.
Go to Europe, Asia and South America – you’ll notice that smaller cars rule the road.
Last I checked – Ford still sells cars all over the planet.
It would have been smarter to develop a world car where they could have spread the costs over the planet rather than just the US.
Like Hyundai and Tesla did.
Only my second part is “unique” to USDM. Even still, it’s not all that unique.
If we’re looking at Ford as an example, 70% of their sales in terms of revenue are in North America. Given the different regulatory environment and consumer demands, it costs more to develop a “world car” that appeals to and complies with the world market… which eats into those margins… and makes a smaller efficiency minded vehicle less profitable. Now, if the US and EU harmonized regulations…
Mind you, I’m not saying automakers shouldn’t make smaller, more efficient EVs. I’m just explaining why they’re going to spend their time and energies on big trucks and SUVs.
“Given the different regulatory environment and consumer demands, it costs more to develop a “world car” that appeals to and complies with the world market…”
Porsche manages to do it without changing their cars for every market – other than which side of the car the steering wheel is on.
Tesla did it too.
In fact it’s far easier to make EV’s comply with multiple markets merely because there’s no emissions standards or fuel restrictions to deal with – and because of their skateboard designs and lack of an ICE up front, which makes meeting various crash and pedestrian safety standards easier.
Back to the Ford example – Ford has sold under 13,000 Lightnings this year.
Rivian sold over 15,000 trucks this past quarter. Ford thinks they sell tons of F150s because thats what everyone wants, so that made the F150 the right choice to convert to EV – but they’re wrong. They sell that many F150s because not everyone who wants a Ranger or a Maverick can get one – and if they had gone with a Ranger or Maverick EV, they’d be selling tons more.
I think EV trucks would have been a gigantic segment if the pricing was there. Also, everyone discovered early on how much batteries suck at towing, cold weather, hot weather, general truck stuff. If the light duty pickup segment could be converted to EV over ICE, it would improve fleet efficiency greatly. Most truck buyers don’t need a truck, they’re mostly just luxury vehicles that ride tall. They also carry/haul stuff for .00003% of their existence.
Pickups are the modern BOF full size sedan. Lots of room and power.
^^^this exactly. I have a comfortable RAM 1500 Laramie for a family cruiser.. hauls Home Depot loads, kayaks, pulls the boat and does great road trips with loads of room/ comfort with 5 min at the pump then another 500 miles no worries.. EVs are cool but in USA, tough sell for many
they could have taken the gas motor out of the Maverick and added back some more batteries and if they sold that for 30K they would p=likely sell as well as the Hybrid versions at least.
Here’s the problem with all EV discussions. By the very nature of it being a highly technological product, many EV industry statistics are produced that each side cherry picks and uses in good faith to further their arguments. It’s best to ignore most of what you read.and look at macro trends.
EVs are just a math problem. Currently, the math for many individual buyers just doesn’t work, leading to published corporate losses. The fact that these huge losses are taking place in a heavily government subsidized industry is not a good sign at all.
Since it looks like we will be in a high interest rate environment going forward, all green tech is in trouble, because the math will not work. It may be that the rise of EVs and other green tech was simply a product of huge subsidies made possible by low interest rates. Now that money is more expensive, green tech will have adapt or die.
Legacy auto made what they thought was an easy gamble that EVs wouldn’t become attractive to buyers and that no upstart company would survive long enough to be a threat to them. They were obviously influenced in their denial by the profitability they had evolved with their ICE vehicles — and the knowledge of how expensive a BEV platform would initially be by comparison. (They also gave no shits about the very real and growing climate concerns that their products contribute so heavily to — but that’s another conversation.) So all the noise about EVs being unviable and unpopular is just their newest narrative, in hopes of having an excuse to lose less on EV investing and continue focussing on their established money-makers.
It’s funny they keep parroting that, but BEV sales keep going up.
https://frinkiac.com/video/S14E07/8bAlltok3L-Czaidi5zzEPFGRAQ=.gif