I suppose on some level it isn’t exactly surprising that John Krafcik, the ex-CEO of Waymo (2015-2021) doesn’t think Tesla’s Cybercab will have what it takes to be an actual, functional self-driving taxi. Waymo currently operates robotaxi services in Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin while Elon Musk, the little-known CEO of Tesla, has been promising that everyone who has a Tesla will be able to make money from their Teslas getting side jobs as robotaxis for about a decade now, has yet to make that actually happen. So it’s not too surprising to find that the former head of one of the companies actually operating robotaxis may have things to say about Tesla’s very public and hyped plans to get into the same business.
Krafcik gave an interview to Germany’s Manager Magazine earlier today, where he did a pretty comprehensive job of explaining why he felt that Tesla is nowhere near ready to start a robotaxi service, based on their current level of automated driving hardware and software.
Perhaps most obviously, Krafcik notes that Tesla’s cars, including the new Cybercab concept, which was designed specifically to be a self-driving robotic taxi, lack the type of hardware Krafcik believes is needed for an effective and safe robotaxi, including redundant sensors, high-resolution cameras, and equipment to clean cameras and sensors from grime, ice, and anything else that may impair their use.
In fact, Krafcik seems to have nothing but issues with Tesla’s design of their robotaxi, the Cybercab, saying of the prototypes:
If a company were serious about building a safe robotaxi business, the robotaxi wouldn’t look anything like this prototype. A serious robotaxi would demonstrate the primacy of safety; the manufacturer would place sensors in optimal positions—on the roof, as well as on the sides and corners of the vehicle. These sensors would also have cleaning and drying functions—windshield wipers, compressed air nozzles, and so on. A serious robotaxi also wouldn’t have a low-slung coupe body design. This design makes it difficult for people to easily get in and out; not everyone will be able to use these robotaxi vehicles comfortably.
We’ve wondered about the design of the Cybercab as well, though more about the logic of a two-seater doing taxi duty, logic that, frankly, eludes me.
Krafcik’s criticism and skepticism of Tesla’s robotaxi service, scheduled to be launched in June, is pretty dismissive, with him noting that
“There are many ways to fake a robotaxi service,”
… and implying that this is, in fact, what Tesla may end up doing. Krafcik mentioned teleoperation, cars that lead or follow, and extremely limited operating domains as ways Tesla could “fake” a robotaxi service, but he also suggested that maybe it just wouldn’t happen at all, and be another missed milestone from Musk.
I think the most surprising thing revealed in the interview had less to do with Tesla and their chances at deploying a robotaxi service by June, and more about the challenges of automated driving itself. Counter to most people’s estimations, Krafcik believes that highway driving will actually be the bigger challenge for automated vehicles.
While driving in urban, high-density areas seems like the greater challenge for a self-driving vehicle, with much more complex terrain, higher traffic density, the presence of pedestrians and animals and all manner of other obstacles and distractions, Krafcik states that the increased speeds and presence of many large vehicles like big rig trucks actually makes for a more challenging self-driving environment.
As far as the lack of “edge cases” – a term used in the self-driving world to mean pretty much any normal thing you may encounter when driving that isn’t strictly part of the expected set of elements – on highways, which most people assume would less frequent, Krafcik has thoughts on that, too, in the context of the possibility of automated trucks on highways:
Almost all of the challenging circumstances and vulnerable road users found in cities also exist on highways—only less frequently. We’ve seen cyclists, scooter riders, and pedestrians on American highways. The rarity doesn’t make things easier—it makes them more difficult. You can’t ignore these extremely rare events; you have to solve them robustly, even if the speeds are much higher and the stopping distances are much longer. This means that the sensing, perception, behavior prediction, and path planning aspects are much more demanding for autonomous trucks than for slower-moving robotaxis in the city.
The entire interview is interesting, certainly because Krafcik should understand the challenges of operating a fleet of self-driving cabs better than anyone.
Will Musk and Tesla manage to start everything in June and make Krafcik look like a fool? I suppose it’s possible, though I wouldn’t counsel anyone to do any breath-holding.
The only self-guided motor vehicles I trust are at (how appropriate…) Autopia at Disnelyand.
> Will Musk and Tesla manage to start everything in June and make Krafcik look like a fool?
I’m sure he’s devoting 100% of his attention to this industry-changing innovation in order to hit the deadline as well as safety and quality standards.
Tesla can’t manage to self-drive in a *very* limited access tunnel under Las Vegas doing a one-way loop with two defined stops. What on Dog’s Green Earth makes them think they can make successful robotaxis?
Ketamine – that’s what makes them think that.
“There are many ways to fake a robotaxi service,”
In a parallel situation, Elizabeth Holmes had cut a deal where Theranos actually had blood testing machines in a few drug stores.
Except they were fakes which didn’t do any testing. Theranos would send someone over to pick up the samples pulled by the machines and then take them to a regular lab for standard testing. Then they’d send results to customers pretending that they were from the supposedly automated blood testing machines.
What’s more, the blood draws the machines managed to perform had unacceptably high rates of flaws.
What’s crazy is that every reporter and editor in the tech world should know this based on the Wall Street Journal exposes, the book Bad Blood, and the related movies that came out. Almost none of them will connect the dots between Theranos and Holmes and Tesla and Musk, but they’ll all be offended if anyone points out how they’ve dropped the ball.
Came here for this.
I may have mentioned this before, if so ignore this.
Single track road, really one vehicle at a time single track road, the passing places are farm gates, field gates and one every five miles for 40ft wagons. No road markings, the width of the road is seasonal. In a snowy winter there is no road, in springtime there is a road, and the trees and bushes and grass are doing what they do, in the summer there is a road but it narrows, cow parsley and bilberries, second brood partridge and pheasant chicks.
I have not mentioned the sheep, or the Belted Galloway, or the pigs. Or the steam engines and rally cars.
It takes a week to negotiate terms with the only local taxi firm.
Just make the bus service align with the train!
As soon as they showed off their crap “taxi” design, we all knew they weren’t serious about actually doing it for real.
I like that this guy mentions having redundant sensors and sensor-cleaning equipment. You don’t hear many people talk about such details. I’d like a compressed air nozzle for my backup camera, incidentally.
My Bolt EV sprays the backup camera with washer fluid at the same time it sprays the rear window. Works surprisingly well, I’m not sure that adding compressed air would make it any better.
I figure compressed air is a good way to blast water off the lens without much hardware needed; I’m not so worried about other types of debris. But I’m jealous that you have anything!
My GTI did it even better. The camera is stowed away when not in use, and in the process of going in and out gets wiped off. Always clean and ready to go.
Those are pretty fun to watch when someone shifts into and then out of reverse. It will be interesting to see how well they hold up over time.
I was just in Japan, and your self-cleaning camera does exactly the same thing as the automated self-cleaning bidets over there.
From their job descriptions it sounded like they were trying to do “engineer” VR take overs for when the AI freaks out. That also seems like it’s not that safe. It feels like we have been waiting for self driving for 15 years at this point there are some systems that get close but don’t know how to get out of trouble often will go right past road closures. If you wanted to trap a bunch just put a road closure sign and all the self driving taxi things seem to bunch up and make a big mess.
I think we’ve been waiting a lot longer than 15 years. Remote control cars were demonstrated in the 1920s, full-scale autonomous highway prototypes and accompanying cars were built and tested in the 1950s, the first car capable of driving autonomously without assistance from any external infrastructure was demonstrated in the 1970s, most of basic technologies being used as the basis of current experimentation were in place by the end of the 1980s, at least in preliminary or conceptual form, and Congress passed a law in 1991 specifically mandating the US Department of Transportation to develop and demonstrate an autonomous driving system by 1997, which lead to the creation of the National Automated Highway Consortium of industry, government, and academia, in order to develop a single universal standard for such technology.
We’ve heard it could be practical and widespread in one form or another by 1960, by 1981, by 2000, by 2020, by 2025, by 2026, by 2030, etc, etc.
Self driving is five years away. And it shall remain five years away well into the foreseeable future.
I really think self driving technology is a solution in search of a problem. Do people really hate driving that much?
If so, there are plenty of options that don’t involve questionable tech that could easily suffer an ABEND/BSOD/whatever-hang-condition-exists-on-the-platform while carting you down the road at at over 100 feet per second.
I don’t want to be in such a machine, nor do I want them on the roadways with me.
Yes, there are plenty of bad drivers I’d really not want on the road with me either, but at least that’s somebody to sue for whatever damages they cause.
I think advanced cruise control, the kind that automatically adjusts speed to maintain safe following distance on Interstates, is realistically the most that people really want
Although, I could see actually autonomous driving as being useful for the elderly, who can’t drive themselves anymore, but are still mentally sound, haven’t designated their son power of attorney, and absolutely refuse to move out of their existing house to a place with decent public transportation. But, they are also probably the least likely consumers to trust a computer to do such things for them, and, also, in my state, the DOT provides free shuttle service statewide to those sorts of folks, albeit with advance planning and scheduling
I think the ideal use case are the elderly or others that aren’t capable of driving safely. Having seen this play out with my grandparents and my wife’s, safe and reliable self-driving cars would be a huge improvement in their quality of life and the rest of the family trying to help them out.
Obviously what Tesla (or anyone else) has at the moment is no where near good enough for that use case, but I hope that we’ll be able to get there by the time I’m in that position where I can’t drive anymore.
Yeah, my grandmother is 94 and somehow recently passed a test and renewed her license, I say somehow, because her Camry has been through some serious shit in relatively few miles. A couple of years ago, she got in an accident on her way to the airport, took a taxi the rest of the way, and my uncle had to fly back with her because she wasn’t sure where she left the car and he needed to track all that down
Still not as bad as my grandfather, he died of Alzheimer’s several years ago, but, before that happened, had been getting in all sorts of weird accidents and then trying to hide the results in creative ways, like ripping the bumper off his truck, then placing the bumper behind some boxes in the garage, because it wouldn’t look at all suspicious if the truck was sitting in the driveway missing a bumper
Thing is, I really don’t think she’d ever use a robotaxi even if it was an option. She’s been using computers continuously since sometime in the 1960s, but seems to draw the line at desktops, every cell phone we’ve tried to get her over the years has gone unused and shoved in the back of drawers, never even being charged once.
I know an old couple in their 90s both still driving and have 5 vehicles. Each one has seen some things. Both of them are basically blind and still somehow pass the yearly exam they make them do. I often get calls about cars making strange noises and when I check I find road signs or cones under they she ran over and somehow dragged back home. They hit a guy on a bike at least one time but just bought him a new bike because his was destroyed. He didn’t want to get the police involved. They go though tires alot too hitting things. I can’t tell you how many side mirrors I’ve replaced for them from them hitting signs and who knows what else. I’ve told their kids about it and they just seem to think of them as an inconvenience and seem to be waiting for them to die for the inheritance.
I’ve talked to them about the ride sharing apps. I got them both smart phone the old guy doesn’t like it and went back to a kinda smart flip. But I know they wouldn’t get in a car that drives it self. They have enough fights with a printer. When I’ve talked to them about it they said they think it would crash into the water.
I can relate. My mother is 88 and just crashed her car into the back end of another in the stop and go at a 4-way stop last week. Fortunately, no injuries to either party. But her 13-year-old Accord with maybe 65K miles on it is almost certainly totaled.
She lives by herself five miles out of town. I gave her a PC back in the 90s and she got reasonably competent with it. Years ago, I flew down and gave her a used cell phone to use primarily as a wi-fi hotspot. She was on dial-up until then. I also explained she could use it a phone wherever she went and could call my brother and me without long distance charges. A few months later, I received it in the mail, carefully wrapped in the original packaging. So, I have replaced it with various cellular-based solutions over the years.
Now, she doesn’t remember how to use the computer and claims that icons on the desktop are constantly changing location or disappearing. They aren’t.
My brother and I have some tough decisions ahead. Physically, she is in good health but I’m afraid her body is going to outlive her mind. 🙁
Oh, that’s familiar, I have an uncle who has refused to set one foot into her house for the past 5 years, because she had a habit of blaming everything that was slightly amiss on him messing with her things when she wasn’t looking – TV turns on on a different channel, his fault, no new trash bag in bottom of can, his fault, remote control somehow placed inside the crisper drawer of refrigerator, his fault. She also moved into an assisted living facility a few years ago, but refuses to sell her house and still sleeps there once a week (refuses to use the laundry room at the facility, because it might require interacting with people, so she drives back to her house to do laundry there and typically spends the night, then drives back). Seems like an expensive way to do the wash, but, what do I know?
My sympathies. I think my brother and I would be okay with taking her back home to do her laundry, but when brains go squirrely, there are so many landmines. Best wishes to you going forward, when/if you have to deal with this.
Oh, I don’t have to deal with it, my uncle who’s an employment lawyer in California has power of attorney, the two of them apparently wanted it that way, so anything that happens is between them from now on
I saw a conference presentation from the head professor of a computer vision department at a major research university last week. A true scientist not trying to sell anything.
He made the 5 year joke, but said we’re realistically decades away, if it ever happens at all. There’s a reason all these Waymo towns are in the desert. Plain rain throws off cameras and lidar.
“Do people really hate driving that much?”
When its the exact same boring AF 1-2 HR crawl twice a day every day?
YES!!!
I appreciate that Musk was smart enough to get into the wireless ISP game when his self-driving project would likely require remote control of the vehicles. The internet is still not as reliable and ubiquitous as water or electricity or natural gas (which have a 100+-year head start), and so relying on public internet latencies or even availability would be super dangerous. Running their own ISP reduces some of that risk.
Apparently people in SF simply put a traffic cone on the hood of the Waymo taxis, and they stop dead in their tracks.
https://www.npr.org/2023/08/26/1195695051/driverless-cars-san-francisco-waymo-cruise
That’s cool. Today I watched 2 waymos go around a road closure due to a fallen tree and get stuck until someone came to rescue them.
“Former Waymo Head Doesn’t Think Tesla Is Close To Ready To Deploy Robotaxis”
Ya think?
Me either, and I’m just a guy on his couch.
I have my metaphorical bowl of popcorn
So I have to ask: how is John Krafcik‘s couch?
Interesting the guy from Whammo home of the frisbee and other fun toys that while operating legally is definitely not ready for prime time player status is dissing the guy who started the robotaxi concept. Now both of these vehicles are killer, of people who have no choice when they were killed by these vehicles. But the Tesla owners are so close to making money they just need to rent them out for the renter to drive instead of a robot. But I bet if we had an economics person at Autopian we would do the math and discover renting a car out to an individual who drove it by the day as opposed to renting a car out by the Mile with a robot driver was more profitable. The rental requires the renter to have insurance the self driving taxi must provide it’s own insurance which I bet isn’t cheap. Proper maintenance gets the owner off with rental self driving it is all the companies fault. Taxi is 24 hours of running for x a rental is still parked most of the time. But alas no proper economics.
So is there a /S at the end of this rant or did someone slip you a few hits of ketamine?
Setting aside the last year or so of politics, hadn’t we already gotten to the point where we should know better than to believe anything Musk says? He’s been telling lies people want to hear so they stop asking questions for at least as long as he’s been running Tesla.
IIRC wasn’t Elon’s original line about Tesla cars that they were essentially just a proof of concept to license tech to other manufacturers?
Okay maybe if Elon was right we should have self driving cars we could fly to the moon. Of course we don’t. But let’s be honest without him we wouldn’t have one decent EV in the world.
I fail to see your point. This unintended consequence doesn’t make him trustworthy or honest.
Yeah, I still think there would be decent EVs sans Musky. Both BMW and Nissan make good efforts that I firmly believe were decent. What he did was push range standards, albeit with some real optimistic math and marketing. However, that would have happened eventually with or without him. I personally would prefer without.
And he didn’t even originate the tech nor found the company. The mythology he came up with about himself helped sell it and get funding to build it up and keep Tesla going through long years of losses. I think the tech would have sold itself at some point, but I believe he pushed the schedule ahead at least a few years, if not a decade.
Yeah, Musk’s contribution here has been his relentless drive to get enough money (investors + customers) to make mass market electric cars mainstream. He’s always been an exploitative egomaniacal asshole, but he does deserve some credit for dragging the whole industry from EVs being a cute extracurricular side project to pacify environmentalists to a legit market segment with at least one profitable EV-only major manufacturer in the US.
My theory is that he took too many stimulants and other drugs to keep up with his self-imposed workload at Tesla and SpaceX that he either fried some of his brain’s regulating mechanisms or got too addicted to quit, and now he’s turned into a full-time mini-Hitler who thinks 14-word tweets are funny.
He was always an absolute turd of a human being, but something changed substantially in the past 5-6 years.
Mars. Haven’t you seen his hats and T-shirts?
Con man gets called out by someone in the know. Good.
As if that matters one whit to lord lies a lot and his new bestest friend capt grift.
It’s super-hard to figure out which one is which, when you put it like that.
Ones older and doesn’t speak like a drunk 14 year old.
I wrote more and then erased it. I promised DT to try to be less political, less divisive, and more civil. It’s not always easy, but today I did better than yesterday. So, progress…
I promised myself to dial it back but the just keep pulling me back in.
SO MUCH of what Elon shows as groundbreaking tends to be utter bs or smoke and mirrors. Show an actual robotics expert Optimus and they fall over laughing, for example.
The sole exception is SpaceX, which he has the least involvement in. They truly are groundbreaking and FAR ahead their competitors.
Gywnne Shotwell, that’s all I’m gonna say.