When the average car still on American roads today left the dealership, you couldn’t go very far without hearing “Rolling in the Deep” playing on someone’s stereo. I’m not saying that song’s not a banger—it is, certifiably—but it’s been a while since it was a fresh jam. But the cars from that time still keep putting in the work today; a new study shows Americans have hit a record average high with vehicle ownership. Can you blame us?
We have that trend for today’s morning roundup, plus more news about VinFast and where Alfa Romeo is hinging its comeback plans. Happy Monday; let’s get started.
The Cars Are Getting Old
If you drive a Ford F-150, Toyota Camry, Chevy Silverado or Nissan Altima from 2010 or 2011, congratulations: you’re basically driving the average car on American roads today. S&P Global Mobility released another study that shows how old today’s cars are, and according to them, it’s 12.5 years — up from 12.2 years in 2022.
Here’s a handy chart from those folks that shows just how much cars on the road have aged in the past two decades:
You can see where things started to level off in the years after the Great Recession and the auto industry’s (in some cases, state-funded) recovery, wherein car buyers found relief from pent-up demand. But now people are keeping their cars on the road longer than ever; especially passenger cars, which are spending a whopping 13.6 years in service, on average.
Is anyone surprised by this? Modern cars are safer, faster, more reliable, better built and more efficient than at any other point in history. Sure, some brands and vehicle types hold their long-term quality better than others and there are still a few maintenance disasters out there. But on the whole, if you buy a car today (or in 2010, apparently) and take care of it, you can keep it running for a very long time.
Couple those technology improvements with the fact that new cars are staggeringly expensive, a trend we’ve been covering extensively here at The Autopian. Rising interest rates, longest-ever loan terms, an uncertain economy ahead, a market-wide shift to trucks and SUVs and still-pricey electric vehicles all mean more and more people are saying “Yeah, this is fine for now” when they think about their aging cars. When the average new car price is trending toward $50,000, that old Altima seems quite appealing.
As Axios notes today, even if we’re on the eve of what appears to be an eventually all-electric new car market—something I too believe, with emphasis on “eventually”—this data proves gasoline cars aren’t going anywhere for a while. And I don’t even mean new cars. I mean the ones on the road now. Those vehicles will all be creating emissions for decades to come, which is worrisome from a climate perspective.
Then again, what the hell are people supposed to do, right? Automakers are kind of banking on super-high transaction prices to help bankroll the EV transition, but not every American driver wants to—or even can—help them pay that tab. New cars have gotten so outrageously expensive that many of us have no choice but to keep our older vehicles running until they simply cannot anymore.
VinFast Tries For A VinSPAC
In the decade I’ve been covering the auto industry, I honestly can’t remember a new car launch as universally despised by reviewers as the VinFast VF8. Our take was “Just don’t;” others said “Simply Unacceptable,” “Return To Sender,” or simply “Yikes.” It’s like that one review of a Spinal Tap album that was just “shit sandwich.” This was the kind of revilement that happened to cars like the Yugo, way back in the day.
To be fair, a VinFast VF8 is a better car than a Yugo is. (I think.) But as we see with the above data, today’s cars have gotten much better than they were in decades past. Even if VinFast put in a noble effort as a brand new car from a new company and a country relatively new to automating, it’s simply not enough to cut it right now. And I’m not sure if American buyers will give it the patience they once gave newcomers like Volkswagen, Toyota and Hyundai, especially since those brands used to represent a super-cheap value proposition; the $50,000 VF8 certainly does not.
(Side note: What if this car had been like, $24,000? I think that would’ve changed a lot of people’s tunes.)
But capitalism gonna capitalism. And so VinFast is now a publicly traded company in the U.S., doing so via a SPAC, or special purpose acquisition company. (This piece I ran at The Drive two years ago explains how they work.) SPACs had a big moment in 2020 and 2021, but the vast majority of them fizzled out hard and they’ve since become something of a joke on Wall Street.
Bloomberg’s here to explain why this SPAC is also a dicey one, which is fitting for VinFast:
The purported $27 billion valuation (which includes debt) would make it the third-largest such transaction in history.
However, the merger of VinFast Auto Pte. Ltd. with Hong Kong-based Black Spade Acquisition Co. announced Friday feels more like an act of desperation than a revival of a maligned asset class. The transaction won’t raise much money and the purported valuation looks as rocky as VinFast’s US vehicles.
[…] VinFast filed for a regular US initial public offering in December, but last week announced it would go public via the SPAC route, without explaining its change of heart. Of course it’s hard for anyone to do an IPO at the moment, but the company’s recent news hasn’t been encouraging: Its initial US vehicle deliveries were delayed, it cut part of its US workforce and it tapped Vuong and related entities for $2.5 billion.
It’s normal to be skeptical of the long-term prospects of EV startups. Tesla’s the standard bearer but it took the vast majority of its 20 years in existence to get to a stable, profitable stage. But even troubled companies like Lucid and Rivian have promising, cutting-edge products; based on everything so far we cannot say the same about VinFast.
What it does have is Vietnamese billionaire founder Pham Nhat Vuong, but even he’s not going to waste his fortune on cars forever if they don’t pan out.
The Tonale To Be A Shot In The Arm For Alfa Romeo
Alfa Romeo’s another one of those “What the hell happened?” brands. A decade ago, it announced aggressive product plans with an Italian BMW-esque full lineup and hinged its hopes on a big relaunch in America. None of that stuff panned out. The Giulia sedan got a lot of early hype, especially in Quadrifoglio form, but it came out just in time for everyone to pivot to buying SUVs. The Stelvio’s launch took too long to happen, and the 4C was never meant to be a volume seller. After years of hype in the 2010s, it all just fizzled out. Fiat Chrysler’s transformation into Stellantis probably didn’t help much either.
So now, all hopes ride on the Tonale: a compact crossover with an un-Alfa-like plug-in hybrid 1.3-liter turbo four and a starting price around $45,000. I haven’t driven one yet but apparently, it’s fine.
What you can expect is a big marketing blitz in America, according to Automotive News:
[…] The next focuses on enticing new customers. Alfa Romeo formulated a profile of potential buyers that it dubs “Sydney.” Sydney is a 35-year-old man or woman, making around $135,000 per year, unmarried but in a committed relationship, and living in a thriving metro area. This person has a passion for the arts, culture and the health of the planet, Goldstein said.
Alfa’s mostly hoping for younger, professional women buyers on this one, but even it admits it’s playing in an unfamiliar space with a compact hybrid crossover. My advice to Alfa is to make sure they have the reliability dialed in this time. That didn’t help the Guilia and Stelvio’s prospects at all a few years ago.
Can Tesla Hit Reset On Car Manufacturing?
The next big thing to watch out of Tesla may not be new car models (though I maintain it desperately needs those too) but how cars are made entirely. All eyes are on the “unboxed” manufacturing process Elon Musk announced at the Phase 3 event earlier this year, reports Reuters. It basically means breaking the car up into subassemblies and then putting them together down the line, which is said to be key to Tesla’s sub-Model 3 pricing goals. (I found a good explainer here and I hope we’ll dive more into this later.)
Here’s Reuters on why this could be a big deal, potentially:
Officials said the unboxed process could cut production costs in half and reduce the factory footprint by 40%. The aim, said the company, is to “build more vehicles at lower cost.”
The assemblage of new techniques will not be fully tested until the system is installed in late 2024 at Tesla’s new $5 billion plant in Monterrey, Mexico, where the company plans to build a new generation of sub-$30,000 EVs.
[…] Martin French, managing director at consulting firm Berylls which focuses on the industry’s rapid shift to electric and smart mobility, wondered if Tesla’s move might supplant decades-old lean manufacturing methods pioneered by industry kingpin Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T).
“I got the feeling when I watched the Tesla (presentation) that the Toyota Production System handbook has just been thrown up in the air and machine-gunned down,” French said.
German researcher Jan-Philipp Büchler of the Free University of Dortmund, believes Tesla’s new process is “revolutionary,” adding: “This is much more than modular production … It’s eliminating steps that were standard, creating new patterns of working, increasing speed, reducing complexity.”
It could change how cars are made globally. But other experts say it depends on exact synchronization, which Toyota mastered with its Just In Time system, and it may be ill-suited to making different sizes and types of cars instead of just one.
Your Turn
What’s the longest you’ve ever kept a car you’ve owned? My first car was a Toyota Corolla (not exciting, but it got the job done, no questions asked) and I had it for eight years before trading it for a Subaru WRX because I was young and got a real job and wanted to go fast.
My current daily driver is a 2018 Mazda 3 hatchback. I just put 50,000 miles on it and it’s in stellar shape. It’s also completely paid off. I am not getting rid of that anytime soon, even if my next “new” car is an EV or a PHEV. Count my Mazda in that S&P Global study in about 10 years.
I’ve had my ’91 Miata for almost 7 years, but that doesn’t really count since it’s a nice-weather car, not a daily driver.
I’ve had my 3rd 9-2x for a little over 4 years, but it’s never been a daily driver either. The longest I had a consistently-driven car was the 1991 Escort I had for almost 4 years before the transmission died. I don’t keep cars very long, although the duration has been going up over the last few years.
As far as the average vehicle age thing, my current fleet is:
1964 Galaxie, 59 years old
1991 Miata, 32 years old
2004 Silverado, 19 years old
2005 9-2x, 18 years old
2007 Prius, 16 years old
Average age, 28.8 years.
If you take the Galaxie out, since it’s not driven very often, average is still 21.25 years old.
You’ve had three 9-2X’s?! So you’re the one bogarting them all! J’ACCUSE!
(I kid. I just really like the 9-2X, especially the Aero version.)
I still daily drive a Miata I purchased new in April 1990. I love the ND Miatas and they are still reasonably priced but I get 90% of the fun for zero dollars and now my asset is appreciating.
Love it! This is what winning at cars looks like.
Yeah, hold onto that Miata. Prices for old ones are going absolutely bananas right now. A nice well-kept NA is getting terrifyingly close to the price of a ragged-on ND1.
Hmm
My Avg vehicle age
12 years old, 61K on the odo 11 years old, 35K on the odo 8 years old, 55k on the odo 34 years old, 83k on the odo 17 years old, 34K on the odo
My Average vehicle age = 16.4 years
[Full disclosure: I have severe automotive ADD] Regarding the “Question of the Day,” I’ve owned my 2012 Wrangler for 28 months, which is probably one of the longer stints I’ve had with automotive monogamy. Previous to that, I got about 2.5 years out of a 2009 Dodge Ram before I sold it out of boredom. Prior to that, a 2004 Mitsubishi Lancer Sportback LS (wagon!) that I owned from ~2005-2009 before trading it on a Suzuki SX4. The way things are looking these days, my Wrangler has a pretty good chance of approaching, or exceeding, the ownership period of my old Mitsubishi.
The current automotive market landscape makes me feel better that my “musical cars” landed me on something I can put up with for awhile. Given how often I was rotating out my cars in the Before Times, I could have just as easily landed in a Ford Fusion or a Jeep Grand Cherokee or a Honda Pilot or something.
We have had a couple of cars for nine years. One was a 2001 Saturn SL1 I bought new. The other is a 2013 Grand Cherokee we bought in 2016. The Jeep will probably be around at least one more year.
The shortest I’ve owned a car for was 87 days. It was a car I bought new that got totaled before it even hit 2,500 miles.
Current car emissions are not worrisome from a climate perspective. The Earth warms, and the Earth cools. It’s just what it does.
13,000 years ago, when there were already humans in North America, Chicago was under one mile of ice. How did the ice melt? Henry Ford hadn’t yet been born.
wrong
The one mile of ice covering Chicago didn’t melt? It’s pretty green over there right now.
So just because the temperature changed once before, humans cannot be changing it now? Of course there are natural processes that affect the temperature of the Earth. It takes some willful ignorance to think that the industry of 8 billion people is not also affecting our climate, and possibly in a very large way. View an infrared photograph from space and you will see the incredible hot spots that are cities covering many square kilometers. Of course humans can affect the temperature of the Earth.
It’s 2023 and people are still saying this. Amazing.
wow…really??
ref the keeling curve
How do I afford a new vehicle?
One kid in preschool, that’s $1000 a month. One parent that isn’t working to stay home and take care of the other child or we could spend $3000+ on childcare for them. Expensive groceries, Mortgage isn’t bad, but certainly not cheap, plus any other odds and ends.
I’d want a minivan if we got a new car and a brand new one, even for something relatively basic is $40k-$50k. I’d rather just keep wrenching on my ’04 and ’13 cars. The ’13 costs basically nothing in maintenance and the ’04 is less than $1000 a year (just did the waterpump, belt, oil change) and sure it has 231k miles on it, but it still runs great. If it dies, I’ll see if I can buy something else on the cheap or finish up the rebuild of my engine for my project car and use that.
I don’t sell any of my vehicles, so my oldest is my 2007 Cobalt that I bought in 2008 (and has been supercharged since 2009 and lowered since 2010). We bought my wife’s 2014 Cruze Diesel in 2014, so it is almost exactly 9 years old now. I acquired my 1981 Camaro Z28 in 2016, but my uncle bought that one new, so it has been in the family for ~42 years. Our newest vehicle is my 2017 Volt that I purchased new in 2017, so it is only six years old.
It amuses me that people always assume the target dates for BEV means they come and take you ICE from you.
California already will not emissions certify certain old cars, why would they not de-certify more ICE cars in the future? It fits their logic. A few more old cars on the streets makes no appreciable difference to air quality, so it’s already just a punitive thing they do just because they can do it.
This is ‘Merica, the fantasy of some nefarious Other coming and taking your (insert symbol of masculinity here) is alive, well, and most importantly, highly profitable.
Isn’t the Tonale a carbon copy of the Dodge Hornet, save for a very slightly different front and rear fascia? I am not sure I see hoards of people lining up to pay an upcharge for a different badge.
Reverse that. The Tonale was first and the Hornet is a Dodge version of it.
Fair. Logic still holds though. Why would I pay more for the Alfa badge?
Seems to work for a lot of other manufacturers.
The big takeaway from the infographic at the beginning of this article is that people in the lowest income bracket are impacted the most. Not that that’s a newsflash to anyone here or we should be terribly surprised. It’s just the typical benefit to stockholders while everyone else gets screwed corporate song and dance we’ve all become accustomed to.
I purchased my 2005 Camry SE V6 new and it’s still my DD at 234,000 miles. I haven’t figured out what I would replace it with at the moment. A consideration for me is that I’m 6’4 and on the larger size and the ergonomics of the Camry’s driving position works for me where they do not in newer models. FYI, I usually have to specify a full-sized truck when I get a rental just to be sure I have plenty of room. Thankfully, those rentals also convinced me that I don’t need nor prefer a full-sized truck as a DD.
I just did over 1000 miles in a 2022 Camry SE rental car last week, and I was absolutely shocked at how awkward and uncomfortable the seat and it’s positioning was. I’m not exactly small, being 6’1″ with a size 34″ waist, but for the life of me I could not find a comfortable seating position. The headrest was the worst offender, jutting forward in a truly uncomfortable way, but moving the seat around would either place my legs in a bad spot, begin obscuring the gauges, or force me to recline the seat a ton to still be able to use all three mirrors.
Overall the car was fine, aside from being the normal wear all rental cars endure by the time they hit 20,000 miles, and it got great gas mileage for what it is, but it certainly made me wonder who in the world sat in the final version and said “Good enough”?!
Toyota doesn’t know how to build a car with a decent driving position these days. I bought a 2019 Corolla Hatch manual new, and four years later, I still find myself struggling with how uncomfortable the driving position is. It doesn’t help that I’m 6’2″ 230lbs and I barely have enough room to maneuver my legs near the pedals.
I’m not sure if it’s a me thing or a difference in trim level, but I’m 6’3 (mostly legs) 185 lbs and my 2022 Camry XSE Hybrid fits me fine and feels quite comfortable. I should know, I’ve already put 20,000 miles on it in 10 months, and 5,500 of those miles were on a cross-country drive.
Additionally, my car before this one was a 2004 Camry LE (similar to yours I bet) and I don’t find the new one to be any worse from a comfort perspective. Heck, the steering and brakes alone are so much better on my 2022 to make me never miss that 2004 model.
Still have my 1st car, a 1970 Chevelle. Granted, not a DD, and DEFINITELY helps that it was an AZ original car
I still have my first car, ’82 Corolla bought in ’93. In fact I haven’t sold any of my cars, except an ND2 Miata.
Average age of my fleet is 13.7 years old, pulled down from 16 because I just bought a new car.
I’m in my 50’s (yikes), and between my wife and I, we have only owned 5 cars. we have always keep our cars 10+ years. currently we have a 2011 and 2008.
Vehicle age: I’ve mentioned before, I think most people know it’s not a great time to buy a car and are holding out if they can help it. They might want one, but also there’s not the big improvement from one gen to the next like there used to be as a draw in safety and such. A ~2010 model very likely has the key safety feature additions like side & curtain airbags and ABS, whereas a 90s car might be as reliable (or even moreso) only had dual airbags at best. Features like Bluetooth or backup cameras would be nice but there’s workarounds in the interim.
Alfa: it seems like a lot of FCA things stalled some after Sergio’s passing, but the Alfa push especially. But also, Alfa’s return came later in the Fiat reentry to the U.S. which hadn’t gone so great. Even though Alfa is more closely tied to Maserati as far as dealers go, I have to think it was a bit of a cautionary tale on the whole idea of bringing a brand in.
Tesla manufacturing: how would this compare to CKD kits? Not an expert on the subject by any means but seems like another fancy way of saying/doing that.
Length of ownership: my GTI, which I’ve had just over 5 years. Some changes were impulse, most were driven by aging vehicles that I didn’t want to put the time/funds into repairing – most commonly A/C which worked poorly in my first 3 cars but wasn’t merely an obvious “compressor doesn’t work” or “leaked refrigerant” thing. As a whole my family tended to by on a similar 5-ish year cycle as I grew up, also usually due to various repairs needed. But with better quality cars we’ve been sticking with them longer.
Did the math on my parent’s last couple purchases…
A Rogue purchased new, they’ve had for ~8.5 years, but has only ~60k miles now. 20 years ago it would have taken half that time to put that amount of mileage on the family vehicle, and while there’s some questionable Nissan quality stuff, it’s not nickel and diming yet. No need to do anything with it.
A 2013 Civic bought in 2015 and sold in 2020, but at least half that ~5 years was getting at least 20k/yr put on it commuting. That was dumped for a 2017 Niro, more for something more comfortable for said commute. It sits around 60k now, but the super long commute is no more, so that will likely stick around for a while too.
I had a hooptie Suburban from 2013 to 2020. My family bought it new in 2004, it served family car duties for 9 years, and when I went off to grad school my dad essentially said “it’s yours, drive it until it dies”. Naturally it was in rough shape even then…it was an early 2000s GM product so the interior was falling apart despite it being the higher LT trim, and after years of hauling 3 kids and a Labrador around it had seen a lot.
I literally daily’d it until 2020. It was free and insurance was dirt cheap. Gas was…expensive, but not enough for me to consider anything else. The problems started mounting around 2015-17. The brake lines went. First the front, then the rear. The coolant tank sprung a leak and needed to be replaced. I had to do new front and rear brakes. The parking brake broke. It became a death trap…although if it had had proper maintenance at really any point in its life it may not have had some of these problems. It never did.
Anyway I sold it to we buy any car in 2020. It had like 160k on it, the body was hellish, and it didn’t have functioning locks. They wrote a check for $3000 or something. I’d tried to sell it online but I ran into some really shady characters and eventually backed off. I then used the money as part of a down payment on my MK7.5 GTI that I bought new. As you all know it was a disaster.
I hope to keep my Kona N for a while. It’s cheap, cheerful, fun, has a long warranty, and 3 years of free maintenance. There’s no reason to upgrade from it. It’ll work for the next 5-10 years and the wife will eventually want an upgrade/we have our first kid on the way and are planning on 2, so we may need more space in the next few years. I’ll be just fine with the hot hatch.
Regarding Alfa I think they’re good and fucked in the US. They’re trying to compete in one of most competitive markets there is…people LOVE entry level luxury crossovers. They’re perfect for posers and those who aspire to be wealthy and part of the conspicuous consumption crowd. People line up around the block to lease stuff like the Q3, assorted Minis rebadged as BMWs, the GLA, the Lexus UX and NX…hell I see the Cadillac crossovers pretty frequently.
Alfa has little to no brand recognition with that segment. People explicitly want those cars for the badge. It doesn’t matter than it’s a RAV 4 underneath or that you can get a loaded normal car for 10-20% less that offers all the same stuff and lower ownership costs. Brad and Becky from HR who make 60-80k or whatever want the light up Mercedes star on the front.
The Toenail ain’t gonna sell in the US. Honestly I’m surprised Stellantis is still using resources on Alfa, but then again I’m not sure what else they can do when it comes to competing in the luxury space unless they want to try to revitalize Chrysler or something.
Forget Chrysler brand. It is more tainted than a <reference to some skidrow hooker>.
“Imperial” It’s about the only name they have left that they haven’t boinked the heck out of that has some luxury connotations.
I have the 68 Camaro I bought in 94. I have a 71 Scout that I have had for 14 years. My Challenger SRT is over 7 years new to me. The Hummer is also close to 7 years new. The Harley is from 2008, still running well. Newest car to me is actually a 1985 CJ7 and a spare Yamaha Road star bought this year. But there are a few newer vehicles in the fleet, just mostly for the wife. Still working out how to get a TRX before they go away, but while they are lower priced used vehicle, yet before they are withered away as collectors items. I like to pay cash for vehicles, but a 100K is just a bit more than I can come up with at one time usually.
Bought a 2005 Ford Focus manual in 2010 with 90k miles for $4000. It was my daily driver to work and back. Sold it in 2020 with 225k miles for $2200.
The progress at which new BEVs are being re-engineered, I’m sure that over the next 20 years there will be a noteworthy dip in the avg age of registered vehicles.
Theorize this will be a combination of planned obsolescence, natural obsolescence and maybe government rules aimed at ending anything with an ICE.
Alfa’s marketing strategy makes me laugh. It might work, but I still find it funny: We’re going to advertise this new car. When people see it they will go straight to the internet to learn more! Once they’re on the internet they will realize we sell other cars too! Once that happens, they won’t be able to resist buying one or more of our attractive offerings!
I have a 2002 Volvo V70 T5 that I bought when it was one year old. Still going strong mechanically but it’s starting to rust out. It was my wife’s daily until 2017, when it passed on to my kids.
The previous longest was a 1999 Ford Expedition that I bought new and owned until 2015. It was also fine mechanically but I needed a pickup more than an SUV.
how is this a surprise at all? Modern cars can hit 200k easy, meanwhile housing/healthcare/education are all skyrocketing and not keeping up with wages. Only people I know buying brand new cars are boomers.
I think Gen X most likely. Boomers are starting to retire or are already there. Their IRAs and pensions aren’t keeping up. Gen X are still working and are concerned with keeping the image they created for themselves and/or at least spending all the credit they have available.
Regarding the increasing age of vehicles on the road… well, yeah. Not only have vehicles become increasingly durable and reliable (200K is the new 100K, as some say), but the supply shortages and outright gouging by the OEMs and dealers have put people off from buying new vehicles. I can “afford” a new car and would definitely like one. But given how expensive they are, I’ll keep daily driving my 8-year-old, 150K mile daily that I bought new until prices become more reasonable and/or I save up enough for a hefty down payment in order to have a reasonable monthly payment.
Regarding Tesla’s claims of revolutionizing manufacturing, color me skeptical. I seem to recall the “alien dreadnaught” claims of fully automated manufacturing for the Model 3, which was an unmitigated disaster. When you have a lot of established players with extraordinarily efficient manufacturing processes, I tend to be wary of Tesla’s claims that they’ve developed a new process capable of cutting production costs in half. Especially given their long history of fantastical claims and broken promises.
Yep. I can afford a new car but there’s no way I’m paying some crazy amount over MSRP or financing at 7% percent with an 800-pt credit score.
I have a 2018 Ford FiestaST, youngest car and my daily. Also a 2007 Suburban and a 1988 Jaguar XJ6, both purchased in 2017. My wife drives a 2005 Acura MDX, purchased in 2014 or 2015.
The car I owned the longest was a Saturn SL2 that I drove for nearly 17 years. We also had a Chevy Venture minivan in the family for about 15 years.
My personal car situation is great. However, my wife’s MDX is getting a bit long in the tooth and she uses it hard. Under better circumstances I’d love to replace it with something nicer and newer. But right now we’re just going to keep everything running.