Welcome to day 9,000 of the Trade War. Wait, you’re saying it’s only been like five weeks and that most of the big stuff doesn’t even hit until tomorrow? I’m not sure I believe you. Let’s just say you’re right, and this has only just begun, even if it could end just as quickly.
The Morning Dump is about cars, and what it looks like this morning is that America is going to get fewer cars. Domestic production will drop, imports will drop, and that doesn’t assume a recession or any other damage. So far, I’ve been focused on what President Trump is doing. Now that it’s a little clearer, I want to talk about how the world is responding.
First, Audi is holding up cars in various ports. This is a response to the new tariffs, and Audi plans to let consumers know exactly why their car got more expensive by weaponizing a laminated piece of paper. That’s one way to do it. The other way is to just stop bringing cars in altogether, which is the plan for Lotus at the moment.
This isn’t to say that individual countries or blocs don’t want to cut a deal, it’s just not clear what kind of deal will actually be acceptable, as both the EU and Vietnam seem to be offering zero tariffs on exports, and they’re not getting anywhere. The response to all of this from President Trump’s good pal Elon, or at least Elon’s brother, is that all of this is not particularly smart.
A ‘Worst-Case Scenario’ Is North America Loses 1.8 Million Cars This Year
An analysis of the global car car market by our friends over at media agency/analysis firm Telemetry Insights shows the complete range of options over the next few years, which is highly dependent on the outcome of the trade war, whether or not we enter a global recession, and how closely various countries want automakers to stick to C02 targets.
This report was written by Sam Abuelsamid, who also contributes regularly here, and takes stock of all the potential inputs and outputs at play. Just focusing on Canada and the United States, there’s quite a variance in the forecast.
In the best-case scenario where a full trade war is averted, overall sales are only projected to grow to about 20.1 million units with a 1.1% CAGR. Within that, despite the pushback against climate activities and BEVs from the Trump administration, electrified vehicle sales are projected to continue growing and taking share away from ICE vehicles. BEVs are projected to grow at 13.5% to 6.3 million units, while EREVs increase 49% to 1.16 million vehicles, overtaking PHEVs from about 2032.
In a worst-case scenario for trade with dramatically higher consumer prices, North American sales could be more than 1.8 million units lower in 2025 and remain well below the base case all the way through 2035. In this scenario, 2035 sales would only be about 17.9 million units. This assumes continued high rates of inflation, interest, and unemployment through much of the forecast. Even in this scenario, BEV sales are expected to increase in share and volume, reaching over 4 million units by 2035 with a 13.4% CAGR, while ICEs drop by 4.8% annually.
A drop of 1.8 million units across Canada and the United States would be a huge hit to automakers, especially if they can’t raise prices significantly. It’ll also likely exacerbate our issue with a lack of used cars.
How Audi And Volkswagen Are Fighting Back
A word journalists in this industry frequently use is “Monroney.” I’m not sure how many regular people know what a Monroney is, so I’ll explain it a little. I love this word. You’d call a Monroney a “Window Sticker.” We call it a Monroney because it sounds cool.
The etymology of this term is easy to track because it’s named for former Oklahoma Senator Mike Monroney. He was the one who helped write and pass the labeling act that required window stickers on cars to protect consumers from hidden fees and the like. He was also a strong opponent of McCarthyism and a supporter of Civil Rights.
All sorts of stuff has been added to the Monroney over the years, and now there’s going to be a new one. Audi doesn’t make any of its cars in the United States, making it a prime tariff target, and it’s holding up its cars in ports. Not because they’ve got tariffs on them (in theory, many of these vehicles do not). It’s to add something special to each car:
To identify cars and light trucks not subject to additional U.S. tariffs beginning April 3, those vehicles will display a $0 option code for a “No Added Import Fee” on the invoice, the memo said. All vehicles in dealership stock as of April 3 have been marked with the inventory comment ― “No Added Import Fee.”
Volkswagen of America on April 2 told dealers it plans an import fee to be added to the destination charge on vehicles assembled outside the U.S. The fee will be calculated and determined in coming weeks, the VW memo says.
This is quite clever. It’s one thing to abstractly hear about a tariff, it’s another thing to see the costs specifically listed out. It’s hard to do this with, say, a carton of eggs. It’s even more difficult with gas to pinpoint exactly why it is or isn’t more expensive. This is far more cut-and-dry, and people are trained to look at the window sticker.
Will Lotus and other automakers follow? The automaker has suspended all its imports of the Emira to the United States, which is a bummer, because the Emira is good.
EU And Vietnam Offer Up 0% Tariffs, Get Rejected
Vietnam was a big winner in the last round of anti-Chinese tariffs as the country was able to absorb a lot of that production. Fearing a threat to its global trade, Vietnam reportedly told the United States it would be willing to lower its own import duties to zero. According to President Trump’s trade advisor Peter Navarro, via CNBC, that wasn’t enough.
“Let’s take Vietnam. When they come to us and say ‘we’ll go to zero tariffs,’ that means nothing to us because it’s the nontariff cheating that matters,” Navarro told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
The examples of “nontariff cheating” cited by Navarro included Chinese products being routed through Vietnam, intellectual property theft and value-added tax on goods, which Trump has criticized as hidden trade barriers.
I’m not a trade expert, so my calling balls-and-strikes is not worth much, but the argument that Chinese firms are using other countries to get around higher tariffs seems to have some basis in reality. The Value-Added Tax (VAT) argument is a lot harder to understand, though, as that’s simply how some countries fund their own governments.
If a VAT is only applied to imported goods, then that’s essentially a tariff. If a VAT applies to domestically produced goods and foreign ones, then that’s just a tax like anyone else has. The insistence on removing that seems kinda weird to me.
The European Union, for its part, is also looking to remove all industrial tariffs if the Trump Administration is willing to play ball. From Politico:
The EU has offered the United States a “zero-for-zero” tariff scheme, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Monday, seeking to avoid a tit-for-tat trade war.
“We have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods as we have successfully done with many other trading partners. Because Europe is always ready for a good deal. So we keep it on the table,” she told a press conference alongside Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre.
The U.S. and EU came close to scrapping industrial tariffs a decade ago in their discussions of the TTIP — the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership — that was ultimately scuppered by Trump in his first term.
What’s interesting here is that the EU only imposes an average 1.6% tariff on non-agricultural products from the United States, though there is a 10% tariff on cars. While the EU wants to deal, it’s also retaliating. The country’s first tariffs went into effect this week and include Harley-Davidsons, beef, soybeans, chewing gum, and peanut butter. According to the Wall Street Journal, Kentucky Bourbon and California wine were removed after the senators from those states backed a reversal of tariffs.
For the moment, Navarro seems intent on keeping these tariffs as well.
Kimball Musk And The R-Word
Mmm.. Celebrating causing China’s stock market to go down, by causing our own stock market to go down?
Maybe this is why Trump brought back the R word. https://t.co/uTBXwDry74
— ???????????????????????? ???????????????? ???? (@kimbal) April 7, 2025
Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s brother serves on the board of Tesla, wears a cowboy hat, and acts as a sort of hype man for his brother. So the tweet above (linked here) is interesting. Responding to President Trump, Musk is complaining about the crashing of the stock market that has happened over the last few days (although the market is up right now).
This is interesting because Kimbal is seen mostly as a mouthpiece for his brother, who opposes trade barriers. Oh, wait, it’s accelerated. Navarro called Musk an “Assembler” instead of a Manufacturer, and this is how Musk responded:
Tesla has the most American-made cars. Navarro is dumber than a sack of bricks. @IfindRetards @RealPNavarro https://t.co/gECgtZt5Sc
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 8, 2025
So I guess this battle isn’t slowing down any time soon.
Actually, I just reread the tweets being sent here. This sucks. I try not to editorialize in this way, but using the R-word like this is just mean-spirited and childish. It’s the Internet and Elon Musk is the richest man in the world, so he can say whatever he wants, but that’s kinda more reason why he should try to do better. Who is impressed by this?
If you are in a position of power and Elon Musk certainly is, then that power comes with some responsibility. Or at least it should. And if you model this kind of behavior for your millions of followers, you’re saying it’s ok to pick on those who are less powerful and cannot easily defend themselves.
It is not ok. It is not cool. It doesn’t make you edgy. It makes you sound like an asshole.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I would buy the argument that “There She Goes” by The La’s is a perfect song. Thank you, So I Married An Axe Murderer, for teaching me this existed.
The Big Question
Do you look at the window sticker of cars? What do you look for?
Top graphic image: depositphotos.com
Monroney, baloney, let’s call the whole thing off.
What do I look for on the window sticker? That {string of expletives deleted} line wanting $500 for a few pieces of 3M plastic slapped on door edges and under the handles. And then even if you can negotiate that item they act as if they actually reduced the price of the car. It absolutely infuriates me and I’ve walked out of at least one dealership for playing that game.
Any bets there’ll be people who still blame the used-car shortage on Cash for Clunkers even though that was 16 years ago now and even the new cars bought as replacements under that program will be aging out of the fleet over that “until 2035” timeframe?
I thought it was Nader.
Thanks Obama!
Cash for Clunkers was dumb. So many nice vehicles were sacrificed.
Elon IS an asshole, though. Why would a man who doesn’t believe in empathy care about shaming? He’s got the brain of a teenager, it shouldn’t be a surprise when he talks like one. What is surprising is why anyone gives him an ounce of respect, or a penny of their money.
Yep.
People seem to have forgotten that he called a guy who rescued a bunch of people from a cave a “pedo” solely because instead of running around on social media bragging about some Tesla rescue torpedo that didn’t exist, the guy actually went into the cave and pulled the people out.
That should have been the absolute sign that Musk shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near a position of leadership, but then Trump gave off similar signs since the 70s and apparently the American people decided that style of leadership is how we should do things.
Adding the fee as a line item to the window sticker achieves two things: 1 – points out the tariff is costing the buyer real money without adjusting the MSRP. 2 – it can be adjusted later or removed when this administration gets their heads out of their asses and stops causing so much uncertainty (which they won’t do until cheeto chaplin gets offed).
When Canada implemented the first free trade agreement, there were a bunch of exceptions that resulting in them being taxed or not on sales receipts. There was a bit of complaining and hard wringing that went on, but humans being ever adaptable just got on with things and forgot about it.
Adjusting that tariff amount out is going to be problematic if the tariff was collected when the car cleared customs. It’s already part of the cost of the vehicle. The manufacturer is going to have to either take the loss or recoup that money when the vehicle sells, so if that car is sitting on a lot after tariffs go away, it’s going to be very painful for somebody.
There were tariffs before yesterday, just more now. Will they have to separate the previous tariffs from the new? Were the original tariffs part of the MSRP previously?
I don’t always look at the window stickers of cars, but when I do, I insist on Monroney.
That is most interesting.
Do we know if the European delivery programs that still exist will get around the tariff because the whole “now it’s a used car” thing? Because while some companies shelved them to the point that Volvo’s pretty much the only one doing them now, this could bring them back with a vengeance.
They just need to slap “I did that!” stickers with the dipshits face on it.
I believe China has a very robust economy and of course the government is all-powerful.
If I’m running China, I’m imposing a 90-day ban on ALL exports to the US. I’m pretty sure China can afford to take that loss.
When the MAGAts see their Walmart, Target, Best Buy, and (virtual) Amazon shelves are darn near empty, they might change their idolization.
I’m sure the same people that couldn’t take two shots to not catch or pass on a dangerous disease are ready to tighten their belts for an incomprehensible trade policy!
You like “Monroney”. Fine, enjoy. What we NEED is an election Mulligan to rid ourselves of this all clowns circus.
Sorry, vote stupid, get stupid.
As a guy who thinks Trump should be under the jail, no we don’t.
Wisconsin actually tried to pull the mulligan crap a number of years ago when they elected a Republican governor who immediately went after the teacher’s unions. The reasoning was that voters had no idea he would be anti-union so they wanted an election do-over. I was opposed to that too. The guy didn’t run as a liberal only to whip off the disguise after the last vote was counted. There was an R next to his name on the ballot and if voters couldn’t figure out that meant he’d be anti-union that was on them.
Allowing for the possibility of a reset button only teaches voters that they don’t have to bother being informed or taking the election seriously. The one silver lining in this reelection of the orange maniac is that the people who couldn’t wait to “make liberals cry again” are going to get very, very hurt. Hope the liberal tears were worth homelessness because that’s where a lot of these fucks are headed, and that’s a good thing. They need to suffer the consequences of their decisions so they don’t make decisions like that again in the future.
I always look at the window sticker to see what kind of bs I’m willing to agree to that’s been added or to see if what I want is on the vehicle.
As for that little bit about Elon, I hope that’s a rhetorical statement because we all know why he says these things. He’s a vile scumbag.
If enough people see the import fee and decide to buy elsewhere, VW will have to eat the cost themselves. This is elasticity of supply and demand. Econ-101. It all depends on how badly a consumer wants a specific car. Of course, it’s not necessarily either one way or the other, but saying “They’ll just pass the tariff onto the consumer” isn’t always the case.
True, but there’s much more “guess I’ll by new from a domestic instead” (who has also jacked up their price, because they could) or “guess I’ll just buy used” (which will cost more that it did before, because of higher demand in the used market). Either way your options become more expensive, and fewer people can simply eat that higher cost than cannot.
Meanwhile, fewer new cars are being manufactured, people are working fewer hours, and there’s even less money available to pay for the more expensive vehicles.
It drags everybody down, not just the importers.
This is all true.
There is no “elsewhere” to buy. There are no US made vehicles, and even those that are “more US made” will rise proportionally in response to the additional demand for them.
There is a level of demand for cars at today’s prices. Taking some of the lower priced supply away from consumers is just going to hurt all consumers.
The key to prosperity in a global economy is to specialize in the things that add the most value for the least amount of work. We’ve been exceptionally good at that, transitioning from heavy manufacturing to precision manufacturing to intellectual work, but this is throwing a wrench into all of that, handing our lead over to foreign rivals without a fight.
Especially China, where their leaders seem to know this key to modern prosperity, and are eager to offshore the crudest manufacturing to smaller Asian nations and to India as they themselves rapidly transition to higher value adds.
Should we ever have allowed our shipbuilding base to get so devastated? Certainly not. Should we allow all heavy industry to move away? NO. But the Trump response is incredibly stupid for its complete lack of focus or direction. A tariff is one of many valid tools to use, but this is completely without skill or finesse. I previously could not imagine this level of idiocy from an American President on the international stage.
“Do you look at the window sticker of cars? What do you look for?”
Yes. The MSRP, any bullshit addons and the final bottom line price that the dealer hopes to charge and whether it’s realistic or in fantasyland.
Speaking of value added tax…I really wonder if this whole tariffs thing is ultimately a move towards implementing something along the lines of the Fair Tax Act. A lot of DOGE noise sounds familiar and there is no shortage of Fair Tax enthusiasts in the current conservative movement. Ultimately tariffs on EVERYTHING is basically a consumption tax and an end run to implementing through the normal channels. If you simultaneously defund the IRS, you’re practically 85% there.
Absolutely. They don’t even need to go after income tax this way, either. While the working class keeps having it taken out of our checks, they just stop paying the capital gains taxes and know they won’t get audited. We all pay income tax and a VAT, they keep even more money.
Pretty much all the vendors my company resells are planning to do this as well, and we will pass that right along to our clients as a line item as well. So are my couple of friends who own thier own businesses that will be dealing with this BS.
I think it’s a great idea. People hear that “prices will go up” but that can be hard for some to quantify. When there’s a separate line item on car window stickers or on invoices showing how the tariffs directly impacted their purchase, I wonder if people will start to take notice. I like the implication as well, that you could buy the car for a lower price, listed right there on the sticker, if it weren’t for the tariffs. It provides a before/after juxtaposition that’s harder to achieve with other tariffed products.
That’s all fine and dandy, right up until they’ll make doing that somehow illegal or “terrorism” and a couple of people get sent to a Salvadoran prison.
I hate this timeline.
I was thinking it’s better than the one where the Nazi’s won WWII. Then I realized it’s actually like Captain America: The Winter Solider. The Nazi’s just went into hiding and now they control the government.
Wait, where did anyone call anyone retarded? I know that there is a twix account that has it as a handle, and basically only posts vids of people doing dumb shit, but I didn’t find the post of any Musk calling anyone retarded. I could have missed it, maybe.
Either way, even if someone calls someone else a retard, it’s no better or worse than calling someone an asshole. Both words have several iterations/meanings, which is kinda the whole point of an insult in the first place.
Maybe everyone should just settle down on being a fuck stick.
It’s right there in Elon’s tweet.
What? The @Ifindretards hashtag?
It’s also in a later tweet in the same thread where he says it more outright.
I was just going off what you wrote, as I don’t follow him anymore. It got to be a bit tiring, lol.
Its pretty simple. Dont be an asshole. Using developmental disabilities as a catch all for being an idiot, or moron or asshole is being an asshole.
Same reason you shouldn’t really use mongoloid.
Insult people based on what you can have control over, not what you can’t.
Like being an asshole.
Hammer meet nail.
Insult people based on the choices they make in life, and always punch up. You will need those below you to support you when you fall or get pushed over by those above you.
Don’t assholes call other people assholes? What a conundrum and a death spiral loop.
They’re not equivalent terms. Don’t believe me? Call someone the R-word in a public space after trying asshole first and see how different the reactions are. Also yes, Elon loves to use the word, a quick scroll through any tweets shows it’s probably in the top 3 autofill words whenever he hits R.
I’m pretty sure if I called someone a retard (like you haven’t) they’d brush it off as quick as calling them garbage. It’s not a big thing.
Neither is calling someone an asshole.
Everyone does it.
When I was young and irresponsible and not fully capable or willing to take another person’s feeling into account, I did it. Yes, you are right.
But, I stopped once I learned the harm of calling someone the R-word.
That harm does not reside directly on the accused, either. It’s the quiet person in the room who has a sibling/parent/friend who is now quietly weeping at their desk because they overheard some asshole calling someone or something the R-word.
Does it hurt the asshole directly, nope. But when that quiet expert on things no longer wants to provide the asshole with things they want, the asshole may perpetuate their attitude to said quiet person without even understanding why they didn’t get what they wanted.
Never have I stopped, nor will I stop, calling someone out as an asshole, though. You choose to be an asshole, you get called out as an asshole.
Are you positing that adult people cry when they hear someone call something/someone a fourth grade insult?
That can’t be a version of the real world, can it? That doesn’t seem possible.
Yes.
I personally have an extremely difficult time seeing another person in pain. So much so that it can debilitate me to a point where I may not be able to move or add value to the situation. I would not make for a good paramedic.
I once drove by a guy giving another person CPR. The person was laying their dead while the guy was giving them CPR and on the phone with 911. I stopped, pulled over, and took over for the guy giving CPR until the ambulance came. It took me weeks to recover from that emotionally.
My son recently “forced” us to watch “Society of the Snow” (we traded that he would watch Bridgette Jones Diary and we would watch SotS). It took me days to get over watching that, emotionally.
It seems odd that you are not able to understand that someone else may be able to imagine how you are feeling, whether they are correct about those feelings or not.
Oh, I totally get that part! Real pain sucks. I won’t even watch other people get a shot or cut on TV. I don’t like it.
Words are way different, though. It’s just a bunch of syllables that the meaning of are fluid depending on the source.
Either way, I’m done on this topic. It’s the 7th inning stretch of the Tigers whooping up on the Yankees and I gotta go to Publix for a sub soon 😉
I’m just going to step away from this nonsense where you do this devil’s advocate schtick with literally everyone.
It’s not a shtick, I question the echo chamber to try and understand the flaws. It’s that simple.
When I think something is wrong, I ask to understand by positioning the opposite. If I am wrong, well, I learned something new. If I am right, I hope others learn as well.
Basically what every adult person has done for 40hrs/week since we discovered electricity.
It’s not that deep, lol. Hope you had a nice day though 🙂
That’s good, because you are definitely an asshole.
“Wait, where did anyone call anyone retarded? “
Trump is well known for calling people retarded:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCx8tMBFhXg
Elon Musk too:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bP5H15uic2o
So… do you have any other stupid questions?
I was referencing the above paragraph in today’s Morning Dump as a singular talking point, not the whole world ever.
Stop being a retard, lol.
Don’t engage. He lives for this.
Yeah, the whole ‘tariffs wont last into april thing’ sure looks good right now too.
Patience, my dude. I guess I didn’t account for the time zone changes. lol
The tariffs aren’t here to stay. They just aren’t.
Yep. His only value is he tells you what RWNJ Twitter thinks on an issue.
Didn’t you write something earlier in the vein that the covid vax stopped transmission?
That’s debatable value as well, Penn State.
I’m not replying to it to change its opinion. But it’s for anyone else who might be reading to make it clear that both Elon and Crooked Trump habitually use the word.
Don’t I get a say on my pronouns?
What else do you know about me to write something so definitive?
I’m curious to know more!
(My “sorta” apologies DT, JT MH, BB, etc. but fuck this guy for being like that, who made that guy boss? Seriously.)
And, since it took me a second to see it, I’ll also point out that Elmo used it as one of the tags in the tweet highlighted in this article.
Good point.
Varies by brand. On a Honda/Acura? Not needed as much since they never really had “options.” 95% of the time I can tell the trim and spec just walking around the car.
From the domestic brands? The myriad of option packaging makes it a necessity especially online. Most have had window stickers online for as long as I can remember, but Ford also seemed to be the first that kept them floating on the internet for years after a car was sold too. Handy when browsing used cars, to see the features and original MSRP. Some other brands do this too now but it seems like it’s only available linked out from the Carfax report. There are plug ins that a dealer can use that will generate the same thing based on the VIN, which is good but not quite the same as OEM.
Nissan, Hyundai, Kia, VW, Mazda…they don’t typically have as much option variability, but port installed accessories like crossbars, types of floormats, wheel locks, and so on can make two cars of identical trim vary greatly in price.
Toyota cranks that up to 11 with distributor options. Charge cables, screen protectors, LED DRLs, clear paint film…
Some of that can be dealer installed too, but anything dealer installed I count separate since a dealer is usually going to be consistent applying it to every car in their inventory.
And then there’s the other end of the spectrum where BMW looks at all the domestic options packages and says “hold my beer.”
I was particularly impressed when they made extendable sun visors an option. If you want something that comes standard on a Ford Escape, you’ve gotta pay extra for that BMW.
I’m just waiting for them to decide air in the tires is an upcharge.
The administration is in the process of making it fully impossible to remove any of these changes.
Raise tarriffs. Increase revenue for the country, increase costs to the consumer.
Decrease taxes. Compensate for the increase in tarriffs, provide some releif.
Get voted out. Now a Democrat is in office. What do they do??? Raise taxes? Political suicide. Decrease tarriffs? Political suicide because you need to raise taxes.
We are literally being painted into an economic corner which will be impossible to get out of.
I don’t know, eat the rich is starting to become a really easy sell.
I would prefer the succulent marbled poor, but I’m willing to accept that lean meat is better even if it doesn’t taste as good.
Too much gristle. The pampered rich are the best, the wagyu.
“R word”?
I’m guessing that’s Republicans?
Full disclosure, there is a photo of me wearing an “I like Ike” button floating around the internet.
“I’m guessing that’s Republicans?”
And related to that, is there any difference these days between “Republican” and the actual word being discussed?
If there is any difference, it can’t be much…
Mentally disabled people are usually capable of empathy.
Yes… that would be a key difference that makes mentally disabled people better human beings as a whole, eh?
They have gone from being the party of Abraham Lincoln to being the party of Oliver Cromwell.
Was going to say Robespierre, but that would imply some intelligence.
I have an “Ike” pin. Couldn’t vote for him at 4yrs, but with all these years of context having gone by, he seems a lock.
I’m missing my old Corvair Greenbrier with the “Vote Howard The Duck ’76” window sticker.