This may come as a surprise to many of you who have for years been reading about my many old cars (my youngest is 29 years old), but I want to buy a new car. Maybe not a brand new one, but one from the last decade. I’ll get into the reasoning behind why I no longer want to solely drive old junkers, but it really doesn’t matter because I’m stuck. Logical or not, I feel that if I buy the EV I want today, it may be obsolete in a few years, and if I buy an ICE today, it may be…obsolete in a few years. Here, allow me to explain.
Here are the two cars I’m debating purchasing:
- A 2023 Jeep Wrangler JL Sport 6spd (a vehicle I helped engineer)
- A 2015 BMW i3 (also an engineering masterpiece)
I’m considering purchasing one of these machines because the 405 here in LA is a monster that swallows small old cars, and my large-ish Jeep J10 is just too thirsty for the $5/gallon gas. Plus, I’m realizing that having a new-ish car can help socially. It’s really not about me having a commute and needing reliability, because my cars are actually quite reliable (especially the J10), it’s really more about me growing up a little bit.
To be honest, I really want to buy a BMW i3, because I want to practice what I preach, which is that people with commutes should drive EVs if they can, since the real joy of ICEs — the joy of driving (especially a stick shift) and listening to a nice exhaust note — is often lost during a boring commute, anyhow. Plus, as an engineer, I consider the BMW i3 to be a fascinating machine, with its carbon fiber body mounted to a frame, propelled by an EV powertrain with a battery that can be topped up by a motorcycle engine-derived motor that BMW calls a “range extender.” Here, you can learn more:
The problem is, a used i3 costs $15,000. This isn’t horrible, per se, but I’m not convinced that it won’t be worth less than $5,000 in five years — and that’s a lot more depreciation than I’d like to deal with. I say this because if, in five years, we can all get used Chevy Bolts that offer 250+ miles of range for $10 grand, then why would anyone pay anything near that for an i3 with only 75 miles of EV-only rage?
I realize I’m making a big assumption that we’ll be able to get high-ish-range EVs for cheap in five years, but it’s really not that big of a stretch. The Chevy Bolt only costs about $26,000, and after a $7,500 federal incentive, it can be purchased, in theory, for under $19,000. That’s dirt cheap, and the Bolt won’t be the only machine in the coming years to offer that kind of smoking hot deal.
Will the i3 be left in the dust? Will my $15,000 purchase seem foolish? It’s already starting to look foolish in the context of that Bolt deal I could get today (again, in theory).
That brings me to the Jeep Wrangler JL. ICEs aren’t going away for good anytime soon, and when I said “obsolete” in my first paragraph, I really didn’t mean technically obsolete. I just mean obsolete to those on the market for a new car. If I buy a JL today, especially here in California, will it depreciate like crazy in the next five years as more people have EV options, as EV infrastructure grows, as EV incentives ratchet up, and as fuel prices remain high (and possibly increase — again, who knows?).
Honestly, both of these purchases seem high risk if I care about depreciation. A Bolt less so, since it’s an EV and offers decent range.
It’s a tough time to buy a new car. At least, for me it is, though maybe I’m overthinking things. Maybe depreciation is just part of owning a new-ish car, though as someone who’s never bought a car that has depreciated, I’d like to own something that, at least from a basic technological standpoint, won’t be outdated in a few years. Maybe the problem is that the two cars I’m considering are already outdated.
Surely I’m not the only one facing this dilemma?
[Writer’s Note: I think the solution to EV hesitation is that if you can charge at home or at work and would like an EV, buy an EV that you like for other reasons than its powertrain. Think of it like buying a performance car: The AMGs, M cars and Corvettes of ten years ago can’t keep up with their modern equivalents in a straight line, but they’re generally more tactile, lighter, and simpler. The BMW i3 is outdated as an EV but it’s a cool feat of engineering with innovative construction, a lovely interior, and a funky form factor. The Ford Mustang Mach-E will likely be outdated in a generation but its inclination towards oversteer is fun and its buyer might love its styling. The Tesla Model 3 will eventually be outdated but it has a huge aftermarket community, good packaging, and the Supercharger network is an incredible feat of infrastructure. Every car eventually becomes outdated, but the great ones give us something to love once the new car smell wears off. -Thomas Hundal]
I think someone else asked, but do you have charging available at your residence? If not, I would definitely advise you against one of the older EVs that have less than 100 mile range. We had a 2013 Leaf and that was a great 2nd car for around town, but we charged at home. If we had been reliant on public chargers, it would have been horrible.
Dude, you don’t need another ICE car. You’ve got plenty for road trips or whatever. If you just want a commuter (and have other cars), get an EV. It’s perfect for you. And let’s be honest $10k depreciation over 5 years isn’t really that bad compared to really any new car (today’s crazy used car prices are the exception, not the rule).
Is the 4XE not worth looking at? Genuine question, the thing seems like a best of both worlds option here (though I’m not sure if any of Tracy’s engineering made it in that one) but I could be very wrong and I’m sure someone here would be happy to tell me.
But the JL – you helped engineer that thing! Also, if there’s ever a cooling issue, you know who to blame.
just way a few more months. I think during this summer quite a few new EV options will arise. If you decide on used, that market seems to be softening too as other folks finally grab new cars Used car prices will be falling this summer.
I suggest the Jeep wrangler, but in the 4Xe flavor. let us all know how well the plug in hybrid works in LA traffic and plugged in at a rental space and if you go offroad I am certain many of us would like to know any pros or cons.
You’ve talked about buying a JL plenty enough that it is the correct answer. It will undoubtedly give you the most joy over your years of ownership – both through your personal connections of designing parts of the JL platform, your love for the brand, and a Wranglers ability to do so many off road things well right out of the box it would be the only off roader you’d need.
I did a spit take when I saw the words “New Vehicle” and “David Tracy” together…
I went from old POS Jeeps to a new jeep 10 years ago and I have been so happy. Going from a 70 commando and an 82 4cly scrambler to a 2012 JK (new at the time) with a lifetime bumper-to-bumper warranty, heat, air, disc brakes, insulation, and fabric seats was life changing I have had no problems with my JK, and love it. I would also love a new EV for a 3rd car so my jeep can just be my off-road toy/overlander though.
Honestly this is a harder decision than it seems. Personally I’d go the Jeep Wrangler Sport 2 door route.
Though I’d say if you’re patient Jeep will probably come out with a Wrangler Magneto BEV and that would be the perfect solution.
Honestly the fact Jeep is putting a bunch of 4 door unibody independent suspension all around having BEVs into production instead of the original Wrangler Magneto Concept is really really really sad.
Tough one. Having a manual in stop start traffic kinda sucks, but I also get it, for many years I drove manuals in hideous traffic. We moved to a city with far better traffic a couple of years ago and I’m like oooh I can have a manual again, now we’ve decided to move ‘home’ and that desire for a manual has gone away again. I just can’t be bothered. So as cool as a manual Jeep would be – and it would definitely be my pick of the two, I think you’d get over it real fast. I agree the i3 is cool, and its an engineering marvel. I suspect they’ve taken the massive depreciation hit as they were too expensive for what they were and for now they are bottoming out, an 8 year old compact hatchback for $15k sounds like a terrible deal and should be cheaper, but they aren’t and there’s a reason for that.
Don’t buy a Bolt because the taillights are the worst and shouldn’t be encouraged.
Everything is handled by the bumpers! Even the brakes! Big taillight looking things in normal taillight locations and they’re not used! It’s offensive.
Which one’s on the Galpin used car lot?
A few things to think about for both sides:
1) $5 gas is regular in LA, but because CA is on its own blend, it’s possible to have a shortage and that number goes up 50+%
2) my truck got well below it’s stated mpg in Orange County (like 14 vs 17), not sure if that was due to traffic or the gas
3) wranglers don’t depreciate and you could always sell in a different state
4) PG&E are ass holes and actively punish working class people, expect to pay surcharges if you try to charge when you get off work
5) most apartments out there don’t have many chargers, and it’s not wise to count on staying in one place long
6) don’t get a soft top jeep. There’s a lot of homeless with drug problems there, it will absolutely get cut (8 times by the same dude, even though they never get anything)
7) it hits 120 degrees inland during summer, what’s range on that i3 with the AC running full blast while you sit in stopped traffic? After accounting for 8 years of battery degradation?
Which 4×4 did you take out there again? Way too much good off road to not have something good. Seriously, consider stepping up to the rubicon, you’ve earned it at this point right? Otherwise just take a page from Mercedes book and buy a used Prius
PG&E doesn’t service LA. Their coverage ends at the San Gabriel mountains so David should be OK there. Also overnight charging is cheapest. Hopefully that will be an option or better yet free workplace charging.
Lower MPG can also be tires. My MPG went up 10% when I got better rubber. Think about more efficient tires next time you need a set. Wouldn’t hurt to check the pressure either. Just one low tire can do it.
Agree with you about the soft top! Pasty skin and SoCal sun don’t mix well. I think something quieter and more refined with a hardtop. Maybe a 4Runner? Or a rust free 1997+ XJ? You know David is going to end up with one anyway, might as well be now.
I know the i3 has so much car nerd stuff that it’s hard to resist, but you kinda have to get an old nissan leaf if you’re looking for an old cheap EV. Sure it’ll depreciate, but you can easily get one for under seven grand and the cost of ownership is almost nil. It’s still not a great value proposition, but definitely the best value proposition you’ll find in a pre-2020 EV.
If you go for an EV, you should lease – the tech on these is not yet settled, and the depreciation on an old EV will be horrific, especially with the cost of replacement batteries.
Really, just buy the Wrangler. Not only do you have a great conversation starter (“I helped design this!” but ICE is not going anywhere for quite some time.
1st, check with you insurance company to see what the rates would be for some of your choices..
2nd, what other car(s) will you have registered and insured to drive ?
If you have another available car that serves the function of a Wrangler – no range anxiety, off-pavement competence, able to carry you a friend and gear, and reliable enough for a long days drive – then a newish Wrangler would be redundant. You would be happiest with a commuter car.
What commuter car ? Many BEV and plug-in hybrid choices ! Whatever you find interesting. The I3 is cool. Maybe a cheap LEAF that you could replace the battery or mod for more range. But, if you spend TOO much you wont be able to enjoy the car, anxious about your investment.
Hey David, I was in the same situation looking at an i3 for my commute from huntington beach to hawthorne and wound up with a toyota mirai. Take a look, toyota dealers are practically giving them away with all the lease returns plus throwing in $15k of free H2. It’s technically an electric car.
Would be more interesting to read about his experience with the Mirai than any BEV.
Pretty sure it would go down something like this:
Tethered to the coast and western central valley area between San Diego and SF.
Nearest filling station will be several miles from either home or work so each fillup takes almost an hour out of his day… IF the pump is working.
At least one attempt at a road trip ending up on the side of the road: Out of fuel, broke, broiling in the desert sun, mad with thirst, mostly naked with his dusty tongue in the tailpipe desperately seeking traces of water.
I haven’t bothered looking, but, just going off of historic Wrangler resale value, I can easily see a used 4xe costing more than a new one with the tax credit. They are not cheap vehicles.
Get the best of both worlds. Buy the Hyundai, get 14 k back to buy beaters
I would go for the Jeep.
(1) Jeeps in good shape don’t depreciate much ( I have a JK from new). They don’t really play in the same league as regular cars and even with EVs they will be around for along time. Not great road cars but I use mine in Arizona all the time, and when it is time to go off road it is perfect.
(2) There is a shedload of new EVs coming ( see Kia) and they will all have amazing infotainment/communications features that will render the i3 looking really old and feeble. Thus it will depreciate . Nobody cares with a Jeep.
When it comes to sell it in five years and the buyer looks for where the TikTok screen is you will have trouble . Look how a ten year old iPhone compares to now and you can gauge the difference.
Get the Jeep.
I wouldn’t recommend literally anyone else buy a new Wrangler. But you’re David Tracy. Just buy the Wrangler. I don’t think depreciation is going to be an issue, and if it is in California, let’s get real, it won’t depreciate quickly anywhere else.
The thing you need to keep in mind is that these ‘early’ish’ EVs were not built in huge numbers. When it comes time to repair them, finding parts may become difficult and/or expensive. You see this with low volume ICE vehicles that don’t have a lot of parts bin engineering. There isn’t much aftermarket EV parts support since the EV parts are sometimes unique in their design and materials. Aftermarket parts companies may decide that the investment to make or remanufacture the parts isn’t worth it considering how quickly the early’ish EVs are becoming obsolete’ish.
Didn’t read all the comments, but one thing that you can bet on:
In 5 years, not much will be different. Things happen way slower than you think they are going to. I’ve lived in California a long time, and this 2035 timeframe thing is just politics.
Your Wrangler isn’t going to depreciate. The fake 2035 ICE phase-out applies only to NEW cars. A Wrangler is going to be in high demand for a long time.
You answered your own question. Buy a new Bolt. It’s only 4k more than the used i3. The payments will be similar to the used vehicles you are looking at. This way you get a new car and it will get the range you want.