The Tesla Cybertruck was one of the most hyped and most overdue vehicle launches in recent memory. Earlier this year, prices were sky-high as every two-bit YouTuber and influencer rushed to get their hands on the shiny silver triangle. Fast forward to August, and things were looking more bleak. With the Cybertruck now rounding out its first full year on sale, it’s worth taking a look at where it stands.
In some regards, it appears ill winds are blowing Tesla’s way. There was huge public interest and controversy early on. The Cybertruck story grew ever bigger with each subsequent delay, and anticipation reached a fever pitch. But the initial novelty of the truck, to many, wore off once it hit the streets, especially since pricing/performance wasn’t what was initially claimed. The truck now has to sell in real numbers, quarter after quarter, if it’s to live up to its real promise. It’s not clear if it’s measuring up to expectations, though at the same, Tesla remains head of the pack in the US EV market, and the Cybertruck is streaking ahead of its competitors in the marketplace.
It’s a complex situation, which leads us to ask the obvious question. Is the Cybertruck a hit or not?
Demand Problems?
The Cybertruck’s sales numbers were brought to our attention this week by Troy Teslike over on Twitter. He’s a data-cruncher who reports on Tesla’s delivery and production numbers, and shares his findings via Patreon. Sourcing his figures from vehicle registrations and production VIN data, he estimates that the company has produced 30,582 Cybertrucks in total as of Q3 2024. In that same time, the company has delivered just 21,450 examples.
Do the math, and you’re left with 9,132 Cybertrucks sitting in inventory. Given there have been just over 20,000 sales thus far, that seems like quite a lot of Cybertrucks left over, especially given that Tesla CEO Elon Musk boasted that the company received over one million reservations in an earnings call last year. Indeed, it was claimed that Tesla had capacity to sell 125,000 trucks in 2024, with the potential to boost that to 250,000 units in 2025. That’s a lot of trucks.
As it stands, it’s not clear that that level of demand still exists. Part of this is likely due to Tesla’s early sales strategy. It has focused on selling the most expensive models first, with a $20,000 premium on the Foundation Series models. As Business Insider wrote in October: “Starting at this higher price point likely helped Cybertruck deliver its first profitable quarter, helping Tesla’s overall margins. Still, the introduction of more affordable trims will be crucial to the truck’s continued success.”
Hi everyone. Based on vehicle registration data for sales and VIN data for production, Tesla had produced 30,582 Cybertrucks by the end of Q3 2024 and delivered 21,450, leaving 9,132 in inventory. Some of these were likely used as showroom models, so I estimate around 9,067… pic.twitter.com/YMqNBAEdji
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 14, 2024
It does appear that wobbles in customer interest could be at play here. “It looks like Tesla intentionally built up this inventory, expecting to sell most of it after cutting prices by $20,000 in early October when they discontinued the Foundation Series and launched the regular version,” said Troy on Twitter. “However, there seem to be some demand challenges this quarter, as production was paused for a few days earlier this month.”
Indeed, Business Insider reported earlier this month that Tesla had asked employees to take multiple days off this month, with workers claiming their schedules had been inconsistent since October. However, other outlets have claimed that the time off was merely due to a tunnel construction project on the site.
Troy isn’t the only one that has noticed something is amiss, either. This week, InsideEVs published an article entitled “The Tesla Cybertruck Might Have An Inventory Problem.” The outlet notes that “dozens” of limited-edition Foundation Series models currently languish in Tesla’s inventory. The Foundation Series was officially only available up until October. As the name suggests, it was specifically targeted at early adopters of the polarizing model. It cost a premium of $20,000 on top of a regular Cybertruck to get one, with Tesla throwing in Foundation Series badging, full access to Tesla’s Full-Self Driving driver assist, and various other add-ons. Despite its supposed exclusivity, it appears plenty of Foundation Models are still in stock. InsideEVs noted that new examples were available in at least seven states across the country, using Tesla’s own inventory page.
Meanwhile, Electrek has reported Tesla has allegedly been de-badging Foundation Series models to sell them in Canada. The differences between the Foundation Series and the regular Cybertruck are pretty much just badging and software access to certain features. Thus, a mere cosmetic change would allow the company to sell the trucks at a more attractive price point sans the expected $20,000 markup on the Foundation series. This could make sense, as merely discounting Foundation Series models would see serious blowback for Tesla from its die-hard fans that paid a premium to get in first.
Reports from the ground seem to support some of the inventory issue reports. Head over to Twitter, and you’ll find a smattering of posts over the last few months from people spotting masses of Cybertrucks holed up in parking lots.
Todays look at the Stagnant CyberTruck corral at the Tesla location I pass daily pic.twitter.com/8LmEVrvT9I
— Zerin "Happy Honda Days" Dube (@SpeedSportLife) December 4, 2024
This is the 4th or 5th parking lot I've seen full of Cybertrucks since the beginning of October, or the start of Q4.
I think it's safe to say that the Cybertruck is a flop & could be a loss leader for Tesla. $TSLA https://t.co/oEPRB0ZWcD
— Motorhead (@BradMunchen) October 30, 2024
[Ed Note: It’s worth quoting Reuters’ story from this morning titled “Tesla’s 2024 deliveries growth might hinge on Musk’s unorthodox Cybertruck.” Here are a few quotes from it:
Tesla does not break out sales of Cybertruck – but the S&P data showed U.S. registrations of the pickup falling to 4,335 in September and 4,039 in October, from 5,428 in August. Through October, the total was 31,451. Analysts at Bernstein expect 50,000 of them by the end of the year.“The Cybertruck is not doing enough to bring the brand up,” said Tom Libby, S&P Global Mobility’s associate director of industry analysis.
Two versions currently available for sale are the Cyberbeast at close to $100,000 and an all-wheel-drive at about $75,000.Tesla has also stopped taking reservations, instead allowing buyers to place orders directly. Some Cybertrucks are even available in its inventory for immediate delivery – moves that according to analysts suggest a problem with demand.
The company also started offering the Cybertruck on lease starting at $999 a month in November, before reducing the price to $899 a month.
“When you see those types of deals, they are basically an indication of softening demand,” S&P’s Libby said. But he said it was too early to conclude there was a long-term demand challenge.
All that sounds bleak, right? And yet, at the same time, the Cybertruck has also become somewhat of a trailblazer. While it seems it’s not quite living up to its promised potential, cheaper models aren’t yet available and also, the stats below show us just how well it’s doing versus its rivals.
In October, The Cybertruck became the third best-selling EV in the country, eclipsing the Ford Mustang Mach-E on its way to the podium. It sits behind—you guessed it—the Model 3 and Model Y, both from the Tesla stable. It might not be selling in the six-figure range yet, but it’s apparently making the most of the limited market for EVs in America right now.
More than that, it’s also the best-selling EV pickup truck currently on sale. Tesla sold 16,692 Cybertrucks in Q3, the model’s biggest quarter yet. Contrast that to the Rivian R1T, which sold 7,245 units, or the Ford F-150 Lighting, which sold just 7,162 examples. The Chevrolet Silverado EV lags even further behind, with just 1,995 units sold in the same period.
By those measures, you could call the Cybertruck a solid success. Doubling the sales your nearest rival is not bad at all. Even if Tesla has seen some wobbles in demand, they’ve been minor compared to its competitors. It may have stopped production for three days earlier this month, but that’s nothing compared to the 6 week shutdown in F-150 Lightning production.
Overall, it’s a funny state of affairs. On the one hand, the Cybertruck is, for now, the best-selling EV pickup in the US. At the same time, it seems outwardly that Tesla is not selling as many as it would have hoped.
Before the production pause, Tesla's order page showed the Cybertruck was available for immediate delivery in most of the US. It still shows December delivery for new orders, which suggests there is no order backlog.https://t.co/RoT1D63LsV
— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) December 14, 2024
I ordered my base spec in Seattle on 11/19 and took delivery on 12/7. The VIN was assigned on 11/20 but the truck was just built and still in TX. Seattle did have Multiple foundation series trucks in the storage lot.
— Peter Benson (@pbensonsea) December 14, 2024
In some areas, it appears possible to get a Cybertruck very quickly—suggesting demand has dried up.
Still delivering Foundation only here in Canada. No words about my reservation yet. So demand, I dont think so…
— MathG ????⚡️???? (@Mathg13) December 14, 2024
In other areas, some claim to still be holding unmet reservations, suggesting there are still new customers out there.
That could change in time—particularly if Tesla starts selling the cheaper single-motor trucks at an attractive price. For now, that’s not happening for reasons of practicality. As Tesla has demonstrated before, though, it knows how to ramp production and produce popular EVs en masse. If more Cybertruck buyers are out there, it will almost certainly deliver.
I’m not sure you can call the Cybertruck an outright hit. It hasn’t been a total gamechanger, it’s not the perfect truck, and there are subtle signs that demand of the rather polarizing truck is nowhere near what the reservations would have implied. Still, the market says it’s the best-performing electric truck out right now, and that can’t be ignored. If I can’t call it a hit, I’ll call it a solid top-ten single. It has its fans, and it’s absolutely memorable—it just hasn’t quite taken the world by storm just yet.
Image credits: Tesla, Ford
Top graphic image: Cars and Bids
I don’t think it is possible to separate the car and the company from the politics anymore. Up until mid-2024 one could argue that only us in the Internet cared about any of this, but Musk has since put his money where his mouth was.
It is sad to see this car effectively pulling a reverse VW Beetle, becoming some bizarre “KdF-truck” with each passing day.
“As it stands, it’s not clear that that level of demand still exists”
Plenty of demand exists… at the prices and lower trims they initially announced.
The lack of demand only exists for the fully loaded Cyberbeast and reasonably loaded dual motor versions.
They could easily increase demand by introducing more affordable versions like they initially said they would.
Cybertruck : Trump era :: Hummer H2 : Dubya era