We gearheads love our manual transmissions. We’re a minority, though, and as trends have changed, the stick shifts we love are increasingly hard to come by. As it turns out, less than 1 in 100 new vehicles come with three pedals in the US—and it has been that way for some time.
The sad news comes to us from official government statistics. The 2024 EPA Automotive Trends report covers cars, trucks and automotive technology in rich detail. The report can tell you all about the rise of multi-port fuel-injected engines, or how brushless AC blowers are worth minor efficiency gains. It’s a treasure trove of facts and graphs stretching all the way back to 1975, and it’s just been updated with a full slate of data from 2023.
The saddest tale the report tells? It’s that our beloved manual transmission is increasingly becoming irrelevant.
The EPA notes that the decline of the manual is a “notable trend.” Back in 1980, just under 35% of new vehicles in the US came with a manual transmission. It’s been a pretty steady decline ever since, as per the graph above. The EPA report notes that manual transmissions sank below 1% of total production in model year 2021, and have remained there ever since.
Imagine if you filled a parking lot with 100 random new cars from the US market. Only one of those cars would have a manual gearbox. The rest would all be automatics, CVTs, or EVs.
It’s worth acknowledging that there are dissenting statistics out there. JD Power reported there was a big rise in manual sales in 2023, with a take rate of 1.7% of new vehicle sales in 2023. However, this was a partial-year result, so it’s hard to argue against the EPA’s more authoritative full-year results. In the very same time period, data experts at JATO Dynamics similarly concurred with the government—the take rate was definitely below 1%.
Why did this happen? Many will want to point to automakers, decrying them for eliminating manual options in many models. Indeed, as we discussed earlier this year, just one five-speed manual was available in the US for 2024, along with 27 six-speeds and two seven-speed models.
However, this ignores how automakers plan their lineups. They build what sells, and they cut what doesn’t. Manuals were dropped because the broader market was less interested in them.
Ultimately, the decline of the manual seems to be down to what drivers actually want. Automatics have been more efficient than manuals for over a decade now, thanks to the advent of more gear ratios and lockup clutches. They’ve always been an easier drive, too, and most will agree they’re quicker on a race track as well. Most new car buyers want a comfortable car that’s easy to get around in—they have no interest in shifting their own gears.
These days, cars are just appliances to most people. That’s left the manual transmission as a novelty option for a die-hard group of old heads, and only a handful of them actually buy new cars. We love that the stick-shift Nissan Versa still exists, but how many of us are going out and buying them? Similarly, we’ve seen the manual return to legendary names like the Toyota Supra and Nissan Z, but few have laid down the cash for reasons of price, availability, and taste.
I’m not worried that manuals will die out entirely. Automakers are still selling a solid range of options, particularly in enthusiast categories like sports cars and off-roaders. Even if manufacturers dumped them tomorrow, there’s still a ton on sale in Europe, where they still make up a double-digit percentage of sales. Besides, if the oldheads can keep pre-war Model Ts running, we can do the same with our dodgy Fox Body Mustangs and rusty Miatas.
Ultimately, though, the fate of the manual lies with us. It’s up to us to keep it going. I have every faith we’ll continue to do so.
Image credits: Lewin Day, EPA report
I think about half of new cars in Germany have an automatic. While there is clearly a trend towards automatic transmissions, cars with manual transmissions are still bought new in large numbers.
I suspect a lot of the reason for the demise of the manual is all the new safety/convenience features. Adaptive Cruise Control requires an automatic, emergency automatic braking all but requires an automatic. Brake hold requires one as well.
I just got a 2011 C6 with an M6, but it doesn’t have any of these features and I wanted to row my own gears for as long as I can.
You can have brake hold on a manual. It hold the brakes until you release the clutch to biting point.
Point taken on Adaptive Cruise Control but I’ve seen it on manual cars too. The 86/BRZ is a noted example I think.
Adaptive Cruise doesn’t require automatic at all, and combined with auto-rev-match, you can even shift gears up and down without disengaging. Ford Mustang, Toyota GR Corolla, VW Golf, Subaru BRZ/Toyota GR86- these are off the top of my head manual cars with ACC
One of the reasons I bought a Civic Si was because it’s manual-only, and I appreciate the gesture.
A better metric might be inventory length on manuals by year, relative to automatics. If they were truly not selling as fast, the inventory would be sitting longer, and mfrs would make a business decision.
My bet is on production efficiencies in not designing cars that can be equipped with either of them and the time it takes to change the assembly line to install a different transmission.
Combine that with the now better mileage automatics get when an engineer designs it to change gears expressly for better mileage, and the mfrs make a business decision.
I’m no help: I’ve owned only three cars over the past 41 years, all manuals, all bought new. If I were average, I’d probably would have bought 10 by now.
There is zero time required to change over an assembly line for a different transmission. We build cars just in time / just in sequence – they are not batched by model, trim, powertrain or color.
There are savings to not bothering to design a vehicle with a manual that only a handful of people will buy. Also due to economy of scale a manual cost a manufacturer more than the much higher volume automatic.
Had I not had 5 back surgeries I’d absolutely be doing my part by sporting a manual daily. They really are so much more engaging, even during commutes. I miss it all the time- except bumper to bumper.
It’s 2024 and I bought a new manual off the lot
Just doing my part.
I’m not surprised. New cars are better than old cars in 2 metrics: Performance and comfort. Both of those are enhanced by an automatic transmission. In that sense, if someone is looking for a manual transmission’s engagement, a previous-generation M2, for example, is better than the current one.
Partially thanks to this,the Venn diagram between people willing to wait until a dealership can custom-order a manual transmission and ones that value the new-car warranty/experience has a very small overlap.
I am a bit more pessimistic than you are on the future of the manual transmission. When I purchased my 2016 Mazda 3 in 2018 I said it was likely the last one I would own despite all but one vehicles I have owned being so equiped. I still do not feel I was wrong in that assessment, but I’m keeping that Mazda for as long as I can
This is very sad. Expected, but sad. I’ve never owned an ICE without a manual, and finding new ones is more difficult if that is the first requirement. At some point, an old Miata is probably the right answer for me, for the weekends, to keep that left foot active.
Should point out that in places where manuals are still available, they are often in less favorable configurations.
For a while you could only get a Mazda 3 MT in the most expensive trim level w/ 2wd, when lower trim levels that were less expensive had AWD. You had to pay more to get less. Wonder why that didn’t sell…
You could get a Subaru Crosstrek in an MT, but only in the lower HP motor, in a vehicle that was terribly sluggish. When they finally added HP, which everyone wanted, it was auto/cvt only. Instant no-buy.
You can currently get a Tacoma MT, but only with a de-tuned motor and a crew-cab. I’m hanging onto my Frontier 6MT king-cab for as long as I can, since there is not a single non-4-door truck with an MT any more.
This is my take too. Manuals appear to only come in the poverty spec trims that no one wants, excluding enthusiast focused models like the Corolla GR. My wife would love a mid trim Corolla with a MT but they no longer exist and we can’t afford the speeding tickets she’d get in the GR lol.
You’re right in saying that the performance version of the cars still have manuals. Where the market has changed is the base models. No compact sedan has a base mode with a stick. The Jetta ditched it last year, the corolla several years ago, likewise, Honda, Hyundai/Kia, Mazda, and Nissan. The only manual available in a base model economy car is the Nissan Versa, which is only a five-speed, and no one really wants that. The only way to get a stick anymore in an economy car is to get the equivalent sport trim, SI, GT, N, GLI, etc…
Only manual I bought new was 20 yrs ago a super high performance Saturn VUE. ???? Fit my 6’4” self great vs a compact car. Have owned auto trans full sized trucks as my daily since.
When I have to drive a vehicle @ work, my choice among better options is usually one very wore out Ranger that I squeeze myself into. Why? It’s very thrashed needs a double clutch to shift to 2nd 300K manual is still just fun to drive once in a while