The car market is coming back strong as more and more people are finally starting to either find a deal they can live with or simply can’t wait any longer to buy a new car. After years of dealer markups, carmakers are pushing incentives on new car buyers.
Where are the deals? EVs, obviously. People love EVs. And Cars. Cars are making a little bit of a comeback. Plus, now might be the best time to try and buy a Ford F-150.
While the market will likely buck up and down for the next couple of quarters, I’m pretty bullish overall for a few reasons. I know that projections are for the U.S. to end up a little short of 16 million new light passenger vehicle sales in the United States, but I think we can beat 16 million.
And on the topic of bulls, one of the biggest Tesla bulls says that there’s a case for Tesla at $100. Yikes.
Nissan Ariya Incentives Grew To $15,915 In Q1 As EVs Lead Discounts. Also, People Buy Jettas
It’s a great time to buy a fine EV and a good time to buy a great EV. With inventory coming back, incentives are wild my friends. Wild! This is Martin Short dating Meryl Streep territory.
A lot of this has to do with 2023 model-year vehicles sitting in dealerships as strikes, quality control issues, and overproduction combined to create a glut of these models at the end of the year.
For instance, if you want a 2023 Jeep Gladiator you can expect to get about 13% off MSRP. Volkswagen Atlas and CrossAtlas buyers are getting about $3,000 on the hood as a bonus if they buy one of the crossovers.
[Author note: TMD was already running late and then an earthquake happened. Let’s see if there’s a tone shift. Apologies for the delay. – MH]
One of the surprise winners in the March Q1 car market was cars, with the Volkswagen Jetta absolutely ripping. Are people suddenly becoming fans of cars again? Not quite. The VW Jetta is a surprisingly attractive vehicle when you consider a starting price of under $22k and 41 MPG highway mileage from a non-hybrid motor. That, plus decent financing offers (1.9% for 48 months) make the Jetta too good a deal to pass up if you maybe wanted a crossover but really just want something decently nice and decently affordable. Plus, Volkswagen keeps actually making them.
The biggest movers, though? EVs. The EVs are too expensive and there are too many two-row EV crossovers.
Automotive News has a good roundup of EV incentives, which were quite high this quarter:
Cadillac Lyriq incentives went from zero in the first three months of 2023 to $9,989 last quarter, Motor Intelligence said. Tesla incentives averaged $6,230 in March, up from just $1,021 a year earlier, and $4,950 in the first quarter, up from $3,878 a year earlier, according to Motor Intelligence, while Polestar incentives averaged $7,876 in March and $6,319 in the first quarter.
First-quarter incentives averaged $15,915 on the Nissan Ariya, up from $1,476 a year earlier, $8,458 on the Ford Mustang Mach-E, up from $1,668, and $11,724 on the Hyundai Ioniq 5, up from $1,256, according to Motor Intelligence data. Incentives on the Volkswagen ID4 more than doubled in the first quarter to $7,798, Motor Intelligence said, and average incentives on the Kia EV9, launched in late 2023, totaled $11,387 in March and $9,275 in the first three months of the year.
Wow! The almost $16k off of an Airya is interesting as it makes one of those, like… $25-30k? That’s not bad. I wouldn’t buy one, but I’d sure as hell lease one. Tesla is also offering incentives and financing deals, which goes to show how much demand is stabilizing in the EV space with growing competition.
If anything surprises me it’s the Kia EV9, which is already a great deal. I’d take $11k off an EV9.
Ford’s Gotta Move Them F-150s
Ford has taken a lot of heat lately for its quality issues, and one of the ways it’s addressing that is by doing a closer inspection of vehicles before they go out to dealers.
That’s probably a good thing, but this plus slow-to-market 2024 models has left a bunch of 2023 F-150s out there for dealers to unload. In order to get these vehicles moving, Ford is employing the “stair-step” model of incentives.
This basically means if you’re a dealer and you sell 100% of your goal you get an extra $X per truck, if you sell 120% of your goal you get $X+ per truck. According to Automotive News, this isn’t popular with everyone:
Stair-step incentives have long been derided by dealers who say the strategy is often counterproductive when used to chase market share and boost key nameplates. National Automobile Dealers Association officials had been hopeful that the practice, all but abandoned in recent years as inventory dried up, would stay dead.
Because these deals aren’t advertised and cause price confusion it makes some dealers unhappy, but the article notes that there’s some upside: The dealers can use that cash to sweeten trade-in deals.
So if you want a 2023 F-150 and have a trade-in you can ask for a little extra from it.
The Bull Case For 16 Million Car Sales
According to S&P Global Mobility’s 2024 Forecast, this year should see about 15.9 global sales, up 2.0% from 15.5 million car sales in 2023.
I said in December that this felt a little light, and I’m going to come back out and say I still feel that way. SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate) was up to 15.5 million in March, an increase of 3.8% compared to March 2023.
The first quarter, in general, did a little better than most people expected. That’s already a good sign. The massive increase in incentives, driven by volume, is also encouraging me to think the market can move 16 million cars in 2024.
Today’s employment report shows that the economy is still strong. The question is, of course, is it too strong? I say that because for this to happen inflation needs to come down to a level that the Fed decides to cut rates.
Besides a lack of hybrids and too many EVs, the biggest restraint on the car market right now is the interest rate environment. From Cox Automotive:
That shows how many people are getting low APR financing, and you can see that pretty much everyone in the pandemic period was getting gouged on MSRP, but at least had super low interest rates to soften it. The inverse is happening now, but there’s a little movement with carmakers offering lower financing as a way of getting customers in the door and cars off the lot.
My biggest case for a 16-million+ year is a rate cut in June that filters down to allow more people to unlock decent, sub-3% financing. Even without a rate cut, if that sub-3% APR loan rate climbs above 20% that could unlock a lot of new buyers.
The $100 Bear Case For Tesla ‘In Play’
Tesla did not have a great first quarter and blamed production lags and arson for the slow-down, but I’m a little skeptical since Tesla also said it managed to produce 433k cars, which isn’t a ton off the 440k the company produced in Q1 2023 (though less than Q4 2023).
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas is one of the main people smart financial people look at for guidance when it comes to the automobile industry, and he’s long been long Tesla. He’s also one of the most influential Tesla bulls, but even he’s revising down Tesla’s share target price according to CNBC.
While he’s still long Tesla (i.e., he thinks overall it’ll be worth more than it is worth now), he did hint that the $100 Bear Case is ‘in play.’
This means that there’s a chance that the stock could dip as low as $100 a share, down from its current level of about $165 and way down from its high of over $400 a share.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I’ve seen the Old 97’s a few times and it’s always a great show. Probably due to timing more than anything, “Satellite Rides” is my favorite album, and “Designs On You” is my favorite song. Damn, it’s sexy. The best part is that the song is addressed to Annette, who was just a lady who worked in the salon he went to his haircut and was done as “a goof.” Annette’s betrothed didn’t seem to enjoy the joke.
The Big Question
Do car sales beat estimates this year or nah?
The Jetta is an absolutely great car for the money. Mind you, you’re not getting Camry or Accord reliability, but you’re also not paying anywhere near Camry or Accord prices.
If they still offered a wagon, I’d have one now.
> 16 million new light passenger vehicle sales in the United States
How. Why. That means one in 20 men, women, and children will buy a new car. How is that possible.
> Ariya
I thought that was a Europe only model. I haven’t seen a single one. I’ve seen more McLarens than Ariyas. Who buys those?
Cars wear out. Population grows. There’s a need for transportation.
Years ago, I think it peaked somewhere around one in 12.
Let me buy an EV! Oh wait, they will incentivize the shit out of it and drastically drop the price and my re-sale value right after I buy it?
Nevermind.
As for the gladiator, that truck sucks and everyone who would buy one already did.
Ford, well, have you seen the prices? Advertise those discounts and I bet you clean out the 2023’s. Right now as someone going to be buying a new truck within 3 months, I don’t even look at them between the pricing and the QC. My best bet is buying out my Tundra lease and staying far away from these newer trucks.
Either you or I don’t get the stick market and/or economic theory.
Why would lack of 2024 F150s cause sales of 2023 models to lose sales? If you want an F150 and the 2024 models aren’t available some will buy 2023s and with incentives even more. Tesla once in the stratosphere at least $800 a share, using memory, now at $165 and possibly under $100 soon? But no article on the Bill Gates like fortune short sellers must have made.
It’s a problem unique to cycle-bound products. If you know a new version is coming around, getting the new version with potentially new features is more valued than buying the current version even if it’s a better value proposition. Nobody does this with shovels or bed frames. This only happens to things like cars and videogame consoles.
As a Leaf owner, I’d take the Ariya if it had one pedal driving. No idea why they don’t offer that on the Ariya, but it’s a deal breaker.
Anyone who approves an EV for production without one pedal driving should immediately be fired.
I remember reading recently that their customer feedback from the Leaf is what pushed them in that direction. Clearly we must not be hearing the bulk of voices from people actually buying these things if that’s the reality – I doubt Nissan would get rid of a feature they touted earlier if it was successful.
All I know is they didn’t ask me!
Author note: TMD was already running late and then an earthquake happened.
A 4.8? Those of us living on the San Andreas call that any given Sunday…and Monday…and Tuesday…
Snowstorms OTOH.
Seriously, when I read that I couldn’t believe it. It literally caused no issues or damage, and he’s trying to say it delayed an article?
Maybe he forgot the /s
The Old 97s’ live shows are an absolute blast!
I was also able to see Rhett Miller solo acoustic a few years ago and he ripped the ceiling off of 3rd & Lindsley in Nashville! Amazing energy, hooks, and lyrics from those guys!
Aren’t all these EV incentives just the foreign manufacturers forking over the tax credit they had baked into their MSRPs before that rug got pulled out from under them?
Don’t know if it’s confined to New England, but Toyota is offering roughly $15K in incentives if anyone wants to buy any of its Busy Forks EVs. Since I saw one with a ~$45K sticker at a dealer outside of Boston, that’s a pretty ambitious cut.
It’s like they tried to not get anyone to buy that car.
7-10k off new tundras if you’d like one too.
Nah, we don’t get there. Student loans kicked back in, people overpaid for housing and interest rates are back to historical norms. Unless a rate cut happens.
For Tesla specifically, they’re going to have to muzzle Musk to keep growing in North America. He is Tesla for a lot of people. And the folks friendliest to EV’s hate what he is saying along with his new buddies hating EV’s. His company only produces EV’s and he’s busy angering the folks who buy EV’s. They’re going to have to price cut their way out of that IMO. Q1 was a bloodbath and lots of incentives at quarter’s end to pump deliveries. I’m waiting for the end of Q2 to see what they do to move the metal.
Agree on Musk. I would never buy one straight up due to his being a piece of right wing merde. Now that Hyundai 5 deal seems interesting though.
I’d buy from Musk before the Asian Hitlers that is China.
I think the EV lovers already bought their EVs and maybe replaced them with EVs. Now they are trying to sell them to the non brainwashed and poorly built, over priced, can’t charge them anywhere is not as strong a selling point as you may think.
Valid point that it’s now convincing more folks to buy EV’s and Tesla has some headwinds.
There is another wild card for 16 million car sales. Gas prices. If we have a bad hurricane season in the Gulf of Mexico, prolonged gas prices could hurt truck and large SUV sales. I don’t think there’s enough supply of more efficient vehicles to plug that gap if it happens. If gas prices match last year, I see us breaking 16 million.
Next topic…
I’m going to call out the Tesla sales drop corporate talking points as BS. IMHO, the real reason for the year over year drop was…
Q1 2023 pent up demand + price cuts + IRA tax incentives = Unsustainable sales surge.
Here was my scenario (which wasn’t unique). The EVs I wanted in late 2022, early 2023 were unobtanium. Tesla was priced too high until January 2023. After the prices became competitive, I was able to buy a Tesla out of inventory almost immediately. I had 6+ more months of waiting for my top EV choices. The ID.4 forums were littered with “canceled my order, bought a Tesla” comments. Chevy lost a handful of Bolt orders also.
Tesla stole sales from other manufacturers Q1 2023. Manufacturers that had a sale if they could deliver a product. That reservoir of demand doesn’t exist now that competitor’s EVs are on dealer lots.
A very smart and astute business argument and I bet you are mostly correct. So a star is born.
I’m probably in the minority, here, but I think that the Fed shouldn’t lower rates in June. They’re finally making some progress in balancing the market. If they throw gas on the fire this early, it’s not going to help inflation or the costs of durable goods, possibly commodities as well.
Completely agree.
I agree with that sentiment. I will also add that we do not know when to lower rates, until we are three months past it.
I think the Fed is at least as afraid of losing credibility as of inflation. Unless the house is on fire, the Fed will hold the line on rates just to prove they can.
I don’t disagree, if you keep lowering rates you end up in a world where the Fed lacks a major tool. That being said, there’s a lot of good economic news and at least some inflation was just profit-taking.
If they didn’t go zero interest they wouldn’t have the problem now. They need to be forced to maintain a minimum interest and a maximum rate and get approval to expand out of the acceptable range. I mean zero interest is fuck it throw billions away and I could make money and screw the whole market.
“at least some inflation was just profit-taking.”
Quite a bit was.
This. The economy is hot. Unemployment is low. Inflation is moderating but not dead. It was painful for rates to go up so quickly, but they are not historically high. Hold the line.
OK Im oldish, but I recall 8 3/4 on a 30 was just fine. Granted, the pricing has done some interesting hyper gymnastics, but it is a fools errand to think mortgages would stay at or below 3%.
I recently heard an interview with Fed chair Jerome Powell (on the public radio Marketplace program). One point that Powell made was that the economy is already performing robustly; the rate does not seem to be harming the economy. He didn’t say it as directly as that, but my language there is a reasonably accurate summary. He also expressed that it is good to have rate reduction available as a tool if conditions merit it. Those who think that a rate cut is a slam-dunk certainty in June…might want to think twice on that.
Good point. Sometimes I think that certain sources are coloring Jay’s words with what they want to hear, not what’s the most likely scenario. You really have “dueling versions” of what’s real, what’s wishes, what Wall Street wants, and what everyone else wants.
Agreed – large corporates particularly have been crying wolf/making cuts for quite some time, yet employment data keeps proving them wrong.
I don’t know anywhere nearly enough macroeconomics to understand this fully, but I’d wish this was a sign that large corporates are becoming “smaller” and the rest of the companies are closing the gap. I know tech is an anomaly on that, given their share of the market value keeps growing (see Nvidia and their AI chips)… but a man can dream!
In my opinion we can all benefit from increased competition and the following innovation/productivity growth that would come from large caps being smaller in general. Economies of scale are good if managed well, and I think we can all agree that we’ve proven over and over that humankind isn’t particularly great at managing “largeness”.
Oh, and anything that drives productivity will unlock economic growth that doesn’t rely on lowering rates, thus building buffer to drop rates when s*** hits the fan unexpectedly. We seem to have forgotten that in recent history (or so it seems to me at least).
I’m 20 days late but looks like you were right! Inflation went back up. The rate cut by June is looking less likely.
I honestly forgot the Ariya even existed.
Looking it up, again, I suppose they’d blend into the background if I came across one in the wild. They don’t even offer them in real colours either – so it’s not like Nissan even wants them to stand out.
I’ve seen one and the only thought that came to mind was “I hope that poor soul leased it”.
Dunno, the red is a good one, and that copper is kinda nice.
Flush: …anybody wanna give me money for a Cayenne?
…I have 3 dollars
And lets be real, Ima just blow it on barley pops
Drat.
I got three fiddy
Get outa here Loch Ness Monster!
Now is it a human suit or a human skin suit? For example human suit MLB the light of Zartha the diamond guy was a member of the royal family in a human suit, however the bug, Edgar wore a human skin suit, as did Dr Hannibal Lechcter in his escape in The Silence of the Lambs.
We are switching out humans for lizards. Why waste good skin?
I know pork rinds ate fried pig skin what is fried human sk8n called?
Good eats
I hear it tastes like chicken
Go on . . . I’m listening.
Man, I said I wouldn’t post Puffalump feet pics for cash.
…but here we are.
Uh
I’ve heard of a Hufflelump, and a Puffinstuff but what is a Puffalump?
FRIENDS! My best friends of the stuffed animal variety: https://thisoldtoy.com/fisher-price/dept-2-dolls-stuffed-animals/d-puffalump-purrtender/A-puff-index.html
I want my, I want my,
I want my cheap EV
Money for nothing, trucks for free
Sales beat estimates? Yes, but only if big incentives continue.
Aaaaand that guitar riff will be in my head for the rest of the day. I’m not even mad, Mark Knopfler rips.
Mark Knopfler/Dire Straits criminally underrated. Guitar work not too showy, not too meek. Always just right.
I’m a guitarist myself and Knopfler has always been someone I’ve looked up to. Your assessment is spot on, he can shred as well as anyone but he’s always very tasteful with it and is just as focused on melody as he is playing tons of notes fast…all while finger picking too. I remember being blown away seeing a live video of Sultans Of Swing as a teenager…I’d heard it before, but I was like WAIT HOLD UP….he doesn’t use a pick?!?!
He also does something that’s criminally underrated-when he does solo he plays to the song. There’s never a solo on a Dire Straits track that makes me go “I’m not sure what this adds”. Despite being a guitarist I could probably live with 50% LESS solos.
If it doesn’t add anything to the song then leave it on the cutting room floor. Period. If you don’t have anything else to say that’s completely fine. I absolutely can’t stand solos for the sake of solos, especially if it’s the usual ascending and descending pentatonic stuff that stays in a box the entire time. It becomes a drag on the rest of the song and no one other than other guitarists cares.
Composition, note choice, and melody are way, way more important to my ears. I’d rather hear the goddamn Smells Like Teen Spirit solo than 99% of what John Petrucci et al do. It’s simple, memorable, and it follows the hook perfectly. The song wouldn’t feel complete without it…I couldn’t care less about how technical it is, or in this case, isn’t. But there are super technical players that I love as well, particularly Marty Friedman.
Now you’ve gone and done it . . . I’m going to find my copy of Brothers in Arms.
His catalog is just stunning. His other past projects, (Notting Hillbillies, duets with Chet Atkins and with Emmylou Harris) are great too.
The list of musicians he has worked with, and the music he’s scored for movies (Local Hero, The Princess Bride, Last Exit to Brooklyn to name a few) is just part of what makes this man a humble, quiet legend.
Sailing to Philadelphia, The Ragpicker’s Dream, and Shangri-La are great places to start with his solo work.
Omar Hakim on the drums, such an great record.
Criminally underrated? They were the biggest band in the world for 10-15 years and MK has gotten every possible accolade.
The Cybertruck would fit right into that video LOL
Ha! It would.
I assume at least some of the incentives will keep going. A lot of the electric MSRPs especially (but everything else, too) were set high or went up a ton the past few years. Now that inventories are back to normal, prices are as well, via incentives. Plus lower lithium costs and generally way more competition in the electric space than a few years ago. The electrics that are a step behind especially are going to have to discount aggressively to sell.
Does Noone think about trade in values? Sure EVs are cheap but with failing in quality over the years your trade in years from now will be a pittance.
Won’t someone please think of the children! Millions of 15 year old EVs looking good but bricked by their manufacturers just filling the landscape, tons of toxic materials leaching into the ground polluting air, dirt, and water. All because we wanted EVs to save the environment, and wanted them cheap.
There will come a day when people admit we should have listened to Mr Sarcastic.
I’m going to say yes, but for another reason…. election fears.
I feel like the pulse is such that everyone thinks/knows that the world will be a different place after the election, and a lot of the world is “on pause” until they see which direction that is.
(NOTE: I am specifically trying to keep this bipartisan)
This may be naive, but I really don’t think anything is going to change with the actual economy either way. Maybe the stock market, but that’s more an indicator of rich people’s feelings than how people are actually doing. I don’t think either party is going to really address the main cause of inflation, corporate price gauging.
Even when they DO have solutions, one party will tank it in order to prevent the other party from getting a “win”. (Hey a-holes, how about a win for the American people??)
I DO get the idea of putting things on pause, but on the other hand it seems that people also have a “Eff it” mentality and are doom spending; “I’m never going to get ahead, buy a house, or retire, might as well enjoy life NOW”.
Fingers crossed things get better for the avg person.
I’m a mix of that. I’m holding on a big inter-state move and life change, to see how the election goes. At the same time, I’m just buying my next car as “whatever I want” because it just feels like with the world the way it is, and now being past 40, I’m done with holding my breath and delaying gratification for things like housing, etc that just seem to get yanked out of reach just as I’m about to grab it.
So, fuck it.
I agree with Mike B in that I don’t think much will change, especially with cars. One party is pushing hard to get emissions down and will do whatever it takes to get there, even if that means we shift to hybrids and some BEVS instead of purely BEVs. The other party openly hates BEVs because they’re woke. Not sure what their feelings are hybrids, but unless they mandate rolling coal, I think we’re fine there too. If anything, maybe the whole country will open up to KEI cars as a push for more personal freedom.
Everybody I know loves hybrids and PHEV’s for those that can afford them.
Kei cars? That’s probably the libertarian party.
My neighbor bought a silver Jetta in February to replace his (immobilizer-less) Kia that was stolen. He admitted that he was actually considering another Kia, to the point of looking at one at the dealership, when he reconsidered it and walked next door to the VW dealership. His car is an SEL and, after incentives, his out the door price was $24k. I’m not a huge VW fan, at least not newer VWs, but it’s a fair amount of car for the price.
Damn, it’s a deal.
I think the Jetta gets unfair shade. I drove a borrowed almost new one recently. It’s a good car (especially for the money). The real weakness is that it could be a so much better car. Sitting in the driver’s seat, I didn’t feel like I was in some silly techno arcade, so I noticed the driving experience more. Good sight lines for one thing. A bit of suspension and steering tuning, without even going the full GLI route, would do it justice.
I would have initially pegged my neighbor as one of those “a car is an appliance” people, except when we talked about his new Jetta he admitted that he was annoyed that he couldn’t get it with a manual (without springing for a higher trim he couldn’t afford, anyway). He then talked about driving dynamics, which he admitted weren’t that big of deal to him, but that it felt sporty after his Kia. He then discussed his biggest gripe about his Kia, which was NVH, and said that the lack of cabin and wind noise is what won him over with the Jetta.
I absolutely agree that the car could be so much better, but the way my neighbor still fawns over the car, I think they did a decent job of tuning it for most people instead of just us enthusiasts.
My point exactly. It gets picked on by the picky. One of the reasons I like this site is how it makes me think of those Michelin star chefs that step up and share that they find joy in a $2 tube steak sold on the street in front of the bus station. No doubt there are finer meals, but give a good hot dog a break…
…but that does not mean all hot dogs are good.
Indeed! Very well said!
They are when you’re hungry. As are crackers.
Not to be overly pedantic – but “atlas cross sport” is the model name, not “cross atlas”, although both names are similarly useless descriptions for the gargantuan beast the atlas is. And yes, VW currently has really good financing offers across the board – very much below market rate, although some of those require you to choose either cash on the hood or extremely low financing.
I came across the ariya discounts recently too. Makes leasing one intriguing due to really low price. I also recently saw a Nissan dealer here in Denver advertising ‘buy one get a leaf for free” – You buy an ICE rogue or something and they throw in a 5000 miles/year base leaf lease for free! That’s saying something…
VW is fighting hard against their old premise of being a premium brand; it’s as though VW’s badge is the Skoda to North America.
Atlas seems to be one of the cheapest ways to get into a mid/large SUV.
Similarly the Jetta is one of the cheaper ways to get four new wheels on the road without considering a Mirage.
Volkswagen has completely morphed over the past 5 years (IMO). I have owned Volkswagens since I bought my first 1979 Scirocco in high school. I currently own three, two of which I purchased new. Volkswagen, like Nissan, could not offer a discount big enough to interest me in one of their current offerings.
If they still sold an MK7.5 Golf R, I’d buy it at MSRP today so fast it would make your head spin…
Of everything listed here with incentives, not much interests me aside from the Mustang Mach E or the Ioniq 5