I was studying the Book of Job last night when I got a call from someone who works at a major automaker, hoping to provide some information, on background, about the impacts of tariffs for his employer. It was great to hear from this person, but it wasn’t a helpful call. No one knows anything, really, and so I went back to Job.
The Morning Dump today will not be as long or as enlightening as Job, which is probably the most misunderstood book of the Old Testament (the South Park episode “Cartmanland” is a quicker, easier take on it, though I think it sugarcoats the ending). If you’ve never read it, you’d get the idea from popular culture that God makes a wager with Satan to see how much one seemingly devout guy can be punished before he breaks and curses God, and instead of breaking, Job patiently waits for God to make it right. That’s not quite what happens. Instead, Job’s friends come to visit him and slowly start to insinuate that maybe Job did something wrong to deserve this treatment, with Job slowly starting to realize that his friends are actually more torture than the sores that cover him from head to toe. And rather than patiently waiting, Job instead begins to loudly complain and proclaim that it would be better if he had never been born. As God predicted, Job never curses him directly, though he does question the logic of what’s happening to him for most of the book.
In the end, God swoops in, restores Job’s health and family, and chastises everyone, especially the friends, for assuming they’re able to reason out why bad stuff, or good stuff, really happens. I find this deeply comforting, especially now. I’m not sure why all this is happening, I’m not sure what the end game is here, and I take some comfort in knowing that those who claim to be sure are going to be judged more harshly than those who can admit they’re unsure.
My sense, and it’s only a sense, is that all of this is one big bargaining chip and that awful short-term outcomes are going to so outweigh the potential long-term upside that there’s little chance we’re in for a long and protracted period of tariffs. Part of this stems from the fact that they don’t currently make a lot of sense, and the rest from questions around enforceability and desire, on the part of the President, to make things like pickup trucks more expensive.
I could be wrong. I am mortal. So I’ll look at who might win and who might lose, starting with the losers and ending with the winners. Since this can’t all be directly about tariffs, I’ll talk some about lease buyouts. That’s interesting.
‘Consumers Will Be Losers’ According To One Analyst
In Job, it’s said that God “enlarges nations, then leads them away” and “strips understanding from the leaders of the earth, and makes them wander in a pathless waste.” If you’re an automaker right now, or someone planning to buy a car, you might relate to that.
But let’s start with what the proclamation from The White House actually says. It’s titled “ADJUSTING IMPORTS OF AUTOMOBILES AND AUTOMOBILE PARTS INTO THE UNITED STATES” which is a very chill way of saying that the tariffs on cars, which were coming then not coming, are going to happen in some form.
Specifically, a 25% tariff is going into place on any vehicle sold in the United States that was built anywhere else, although there’s maybe a carveout for cars built in Canada and Mexico that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, although only to parts made or transformed in the United States.
Why is this happening?
The Secretary has informed me that, since the February 17, 2019, report, the national security concerns remain and have escalated. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed critical vulnerabilities and choke points in global supply chains, undermining our ability to maintain a resilient domestic industrial base. In recent years, American-owned automotive manufacturers have experienced numerous supply chain challenges, including material and parts input shortages, labor shortages and strikes, and electrical-component shortages. Meanwhile, foreign automotive industries, propelled by unfair subsidies and aggressive industrial policies, have grown substantially. Today, only about half of the vehicles sold in the United States are manufactured domestically, a decline that jeopardizes our domestic industrial base and national security, and the United States’ share of worldwide automobile production has remained stagnant since the February 17, 2019, report. The number of employees in the domestic automotive industry has also not improved since the February 17, 2019, report.
I am also advised that agreements entered into before the issuance of Proclamation 9888, such as the revisions to the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), have not yielded sufficient positive outcomes. The threat to national security posed by imports of automobiles and certain automobile parts remains and has increased. Investments resulting from other efforts, such as legislation, have also not yielded sufficient positive outcomes to eliminate the threat to national security from such imports.
If at first you don’t succeed, try and try again, I suppose, since President Trump is the one who was responsible for negotiating both the USMCA and revisions to the United States-Korea Free Trade Agreement in his first term.
It’s fairly bipartisan to say that America needs a larger manufacturing base, that supply chains have become comically overstretched, and that more jobs are a good thing. If cheap goods for many and high profits for some at the cost of a lot of employment were the result of liberalizing trade in the ’90s, then perhaps there’s some justice to un-liberalizing trade so that those jobs can come back. It’s possible that some combination of high tariffs bringing in income, more jobs, et cetera lead to enough economic growth to counter the costs, but that’s rarely how it goes.
If you’re not into the Book of Job, Ben Stein in Ferris Bueller’s Day Off does a nice job of reminding everyone what happened last time America set forth to do these kinds of tariffs at this sort of scale.
“In 1930, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, in an effort to alleviate the effects of the… Anyone? Anyone?… the Great Depression, passed the… Anyone? Anyone? The tariff bill? The Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act. Which, anyone? Raised or lowered?… raised tariffs, in an effort to collect more revenue for the federal government. Did it work? Anyone?… Anyone know the effects? It did not work, and the United States sank deeper into the Great Depression.”
Maybe it’ll work this time!
[Ed Note: There’s no way Matt is referencing Ferris Bueller’s Day Off as a source about tariffs, right? This cannot possi — oh wow. Holy crap:
Oh man that’s hilarious. -DT].
The impacts, whenever they happen, could be immediate, and the people who claim to know think it’ll be bad for some and less-bad for others. From Bloomberg:
“There are very few winners,” Sam Fiorani, vice president of global vehicle forecasting for AutoForecast Solutions, said in a telephone interview. “Consumers will be losers because they will have reduced choice and higher prices.”
Tesla is the “least exposed” to the new duties due to its domestic manufacturing operations, CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson wrote in an analysis this week. Tesla itself has been boasting this week about its US credentials, saying in a post on X that its models “are the most American-made cars.”
Ford Motor Co. could also face a less-severe impact than some rivals, with about 80% of the cars it sells in the US being built domestically.
In particular, and this should be obvious, it’s bad for the automakers that import cars into the United States. Porsche imports all of its cars. Even domestic brands like Buick, which have been performing well, import 100% of their cars. Volvo, Mazda, and Volkswagen bring in a huge percentage of their cars.
They’re worried, and probably should be. Porsche, in particular, is in a tough spot, as mentioned in a different Bloomberg article:
Porsche, which is struggling with lower sales in China, may be most exposed. The luxury-car maker has steadily grown the last 15 years in the US, which just overtook China as its top market. But Porsche’s US dealers are entirely reliant on imports as the manufacturer operates no factory there.
The group I want to focus on is truck buyers, as they’re the worst off here. In spite of the existence of the Chicken Tax, which is a 25% tariff on imported light trucks, many of the trucks people like to buy are not, in fact, built in the United States.
Ford builds its F-150s, Super Duty trucks, and Rangers in the United States. While material costs and supplies may go up, impacting the total cost of the vehicle, it seems a lot more insulated than the big trucks from other companies. The Maverick, unfortunately, is built in Mexico. Sorry, Maverick buyers.
It gets a little harder for General Motors. The Colorado is built in Missouri, and most Silverados and HD Silverados are assembled in the United States, but facilities in Canada and Mexico make up the difference, and suppliers in those countries provide key components.
Stellantis is in the worst shape here, as its light-duty trucks are made in the United States and, yet, all of its heavy-duty trucks we just reviewed are made in Mexico. This production can eventually be shipped to the United States, assuming there’s enough labor. Of course, labor here is more expensive, so that’ll also make prices likely go up.
Toyota? Thanks to the Chicken Tax, Toyota builds all of its Tundras and some of its Tacomas here, so you’re in the clear. The same is true for the Hyundai Santa Cruz and Honda Ridgeline. No one wanted the Nissan Titan, so it’s being discontinued, but the Frontier will continue to be built here, so that’s nice. Tesla only builds the Cybertruck in the United States, partially because it would be illegal to sell something so risky to pedestrians in other places, so the Cybertruck might remain the same price.
It’s an interesting situation we’re in, where the Ford Maverick, Chevy Silverado, and Ram 2500 are likely to become relatively more expensive while the Toyota Tundra, Nissan Frontier, and Hyundai Santa Cruz probably become net cheaper. I say all of this is relative, because it’s possible everything goes up in price because all of the supply chains are integrated across borders and, as we learned during the pandemic, you can’t just fix that overnight.
This makes me tempted to believe that, as in the past, all of this is short-term negotiating. President Trump already said he’d consider cutting different tariffs on China, for instance, if they’ll sell ByteDance to an American company.
But I don’t know. No one knows. How many loopholes all there? Will Hyundai get one after going to the White House and bragging about building more plants here?
The UAW Seems Pretty Happy About It
United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain and then-candidate Donald Trump spent about a year taking potshots at one another, with the UAW ultimately endorsing VP Kamala Harris. If there’s one person who is happy with all of this, at least for now, it’s Shawn Fain.
Here is the UAW’s statement on the announcement:
“We applaud the Trump administration for stepping up to end the free trade disaster that has devastated working-class communities for decades. Ending the race to the bottom in the auto industry starts with fixing our broken trade deals, and the Trump administration has made history with today’s actions.
But ending the race to the bottom also means securing union rights for autoworkers everywhere with a strong National Labor Relations Board, a decent retirement with Social Security benefits protected, healthcare for all workers including through Medicare and Medicaid, and dignity on and off the job. The UAW and the working class, in general, couldn’t care less about party politics; working people expect leaders to work together to deliver results. The UAW has been clear: we will work with any politician, regardless of party, who is willing to reverse decades of working-class people going backwards in the most profitable times in our nation’s history. These tariffs are a major step in the right direction for autoworkers and blue-collar communities across the country, and it is now on the automakers, from the Big Three to Volkswagen and beyond, to bring back good union jobs to the U.S.”
I’m not sure President Trump and Fain are on the same page about Medicare, Medicaid, a strong NLRB, or Social Security. Nor is it clear that President Trump’s hope here is to see a bunch of unionized car plants.
If we fast-forward to the future, in a world where more cars are built here and costs go up, the result could end up being more automation. I don’t see another obvious way to square all of this.
People Are Seeing The Logic Of Buying Out Their Leases
Earlier this month, I wrote about the lease renewal cliff, which is the moment when a bunch of cars that would normally enter the used market do not. The reason is that most leases are for 2-3 years ago, and 2-3 years ago, there weren’t that many new cars to lease because of the pandemic.
The only thing that could make this situation worse, I reckoned, was a bunch of people looking at the current environment and deciding it might be better off to just buy out their lease. Conveniently, the people at Lease End, a company that helps people buy out their leases, have some data on this that they agreed to share.
“Lease End has seen a significant increase in lease buyouts year-over-year. In 2022, we facilitated 4,774 lease buyouts. That number grew to 7,766 in 2023, and in 2024, we processed 14,235 lease buyout transactions—an increase of 83% compared to the previous year,” said co-founder Zander Cook.
Why is this happening?
“We believe this surge is driven by a combination of factors, including (but not limited to) market conditions, consumer preferences shifting toward lease buyouts, and greater awareness of the options available — including brand awareness.”
As Cook admits, some of this might be due to the fact that Lease End is a new and growing company, but market forces are certainly at play here. If your vehicle is suddenly worth a lot less at the end of your lease, there’s less of a reason to buy it out, but if you’ve got positive equity, it might make sense. In fact, a study from Lease End showed that all of the top ten most popular vehicles to buy out had positive equity, with an average minimum of at least $2,000.
If cars get way, way more expensive and consumers have an ability to buy out their lease, this could make buy-outs more popular. This is not great for car dealers, who want the used cars to sell, and it’s worse for used car buyers, who might be looking towards used cars when new cars become more affordable.
Bring on the Lease Renewal Super Cliff.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
It’s the last day of me talking about Laura Nyro without actually playing a song that Laura Nyro is actively singing, and this time it’s from the composer and lyricist Stephen Schwartz. I was thinking of doing something from Godspell this morning, tbh, before worrying that was maybe too on the nose. Instead, here’s “Magic To Do” from Pippin. It’s extremely Nyro-esque and kinda fun. I’m more of a Sondheim guy, but it works in a pinch.
The Big Question
What now?
Actor Ben Stein is actually a noted economist who’s written a highly regarded book. And Cartman wasn’t the first to sugarcoat the ending of Job, some unknown advocate for Tidy Endings beat him to it; many scholars see the final chapter of Job as a later addition to what may be the oldest story in the Bible.
Never seen Pippin. As the opening song of the play, it’s lively, melodic and fun. But it’s also full of big promises of things to come, that the rest of the play can’t possibly deliver on, can it?
Seems people buy the utter nonsense about tariffs. The reason American cars are not bought abroad because they are not made for local markets, e.g., too big. And if a trade surplus is apparently good for the exporter (and thus not good for the importer) , why need other countries outside the US accept the trade surplus from the US?
“God makes a wager with Satan”
Isn’t that like gambling? And isn’t gambling sinful? I would argue that Satan in that case already won by goading God into making that bet.
HAIL SATAN!!!!
And related to that, I view all those “religious leaders” who support Trump as the devil-in-disguise
“‘Consumers Will Be Losers’ According To One Analyst”
That analyst is correct. But since enough of you voted for Trump and enough of you opposed to Trump didn’t show up at the ballot box, now your reward is gonna be years of pain.
More expensive pickup trucks is just the start of it. Expect job losses and much higher levels of unemployment… starting with travel and tourism industry which is already feeling the impact.
“Tesla is the “least exposed” to the new duties due to its domestic manufacturing operations, “
HOWEVER… Tesla is the MOST EXPOSED when it comes to political blowback. That’s why Tesla sales have been falling in recent months while competitors are growing sales. And I’m not talking about market share. I’m talking about units sold.
“ Shawn Fain.”
Fuck that idiot. Just reinforces my view that avoiding US-made products is the correct choice.
“What now?”
Expect more chaos and expect a recession. The only way to mitigate it is if the Democrats make huge gains in the mid term elections so they gain control of the house and senate.
And the Democrats have to get a lot more militant.
If they gain control of the house and senate, then they should immediately start working to impeach Trump and do everything they can to ensure Trump leaves office in handcuffs.
But until that time, expect things to get worse and expect constant chaos.
That’s the only guaranteed thing you’ll get with an unstable crook like Trump.
I just leased a Fiat 500e as a commuter car, since I have to be back in the office full time. I was able to get it for $33 a month with nothing up front. I don’t think I’ll be buying it out at the end of the lease, though, because I think $19k is going to be well above market for it.
I think the market is going to be very disrupted for at least the next couple of years. I think production is going to tank and prices are going to go up on used and new cars as supply tightens and people can’t afford to buy new. Though maybe the economy cratering will bring down interest rates? Who hecking knows what is going to happen, though?
A smart person would continue to go after China, with which the US has the worst trade deficit, and which presents the massive logistics risk of the Pacific Ocean along with the geopolitical risk of authoritarian, anti-western leadership.
How do you do that without destroying the economy and creating hyperinflation? Lean into the relationships with Canada and Mexico, two democratic allies which share some of the largest land borders in the world with the US.
What’s going on if instead someone alienates Canada and Mexico with huge tariffs, risking severe recession and inflation? Putting the North American auto manufacturing capabilities and broader industrial base at risk?
One theoretical possibility, upon only opinion and belief, the president is a radical, de-growth, environmentalist.
Another theoretical possibility, upon only opinion and belief, the president is a Russian agent, compromised, or a useful idiot.
Decide for yourself which is more probable.
As always the UAW has the viewpoint of an idiot, but is not particularly useful.
Don’t blame me, I voted for Chase Oliver.
Finally, the while these tariffs will hurt the US a lot, they will hurt Mexico even more. Where do you think that will make Mexicans want to illegally go?
Is this how he gets Mexico to pay for the wall? Wreck the US economy, encourage extra-continental exports from the factories just south of the border, and Mexico has to build a wall to keep us from sneaking over to do the work they no longer will?
Yay.
I’ll chime in with another bit of appreciation for a mention of Job, one of the most misunderstood and misused works of ancient literature. Nicely done. The real villains in the story are indeed the spiritual gurus who are eager to victim blame and attribute money to virtue.
I’ve been enjoying this column for a while, but Hardigree has been on a roll lately with thoughtful analysis.
Though I can’t really say that I like the news today, it’s good to see Matt is on the Job night and day.
Dude! Are you a believer?
This has been one of the best morning shifts i’ve read. Thanks for the sermon pastor Matt, followed by some terrific news.
It’s okay though because Tesla stock went up as soon as people realized they were the most American-made car by parts (AKA probably the reason Trump actually did it).
President Musk jiggles Trumps leash and says “speak” and his pet Trump does what he is told. How else would he get a treat?
Looking US part content from NHTSA 2024 data:
35% – Model 3 Long Range
75% – Model 3 Performance
40% – Model 3 RWD
65% – Model S
60% – Model X
70% – Model Y
As always Musk likes to stretch the truth a bit. The Model 3 Performance ties the Honda Passport AWD which also has 75% US part content. The rest of the products that come out of the Alabama plant have 70% US part content.
I’m not surprised the UAW is on board if there is a bad idea they are all over it. If they were really worried about US manufacturing they would do stepped terrifs while doing something about work force training. Good unions train people ,work with the companies in their industry, and provide some kind of training and apprenticeship. UAW has always worked outside of that partly because their work is generally considered unskilled. There are other union workers represented by other unions in those plants that are the more skilled workers. But you never hear about them.
What’s next is the Gulf of America while talking about annexing Canada and Greenland. I don’t know why he wants it but he has had his sights on Mexico for a long time. Maybe the beach development opportunities?
I have always seen it as two kinds of unions. One acts like a medieval guild, with apprentices, journeymen, and masters. They both educate the next group, determine who is good enough to move on, and charge accordingly. My neighbor is in construction. He has said several times that, while IBEW is more expensive, he has 20% fewer problems.
The other kind sort of just exists and has the ability to strike. I’m looking at you, UFCW. The Kroger Cashier’s union adds what value?
That leads me to my pseudo-problem with UAW. If I were a manufacturer, I would be happy to have workers that are continuously trying to improve themselves, and wouldn’t mind paying a little more. Of course, I am not a manufacturer, and I am certain that there are roughly 1.6 quintillion other parameters that goes into a decision like that.
I was in the IBEW. It can vary drastically from local to local.
No doubt. I know that when I would leave work as a high school teacher, the IBEW Local 666 classes would be coming in. My favorite was a grizzled old dude that had a shirt that said, “If I am talking, you should be listening”
Those guys were definitely getting education.
That’s true enough and there are levels and bad and good locals of each kind. Machinists and iron workers seem to have the better unions over all. The graffic communicators (printers) had a good setup like most iron worker locals where they would train people all the insurance was through them and they had job boards. I believe they were absorbed in to the teamsters. Ibew, steamfitter, millwright seem to be all over the place. You also have the unions like the IAFF where they aren’t really training but have a seat at the table and the trainers are in the union.
With the tariffs, I’m a bit confused about something in particular, and I’m not sure if there’s an answer to this yet. Let’s say a vehicle is assembled in Mexico with a relatively high parts content from the US (GM does this). Does that mean it’s still a flat 25% tariff on the entire vehicle as it comes into the US? Does Mexico charge reciprocal tariffs on the the US parts going over the border to the assembly plants? That would mean a tariff on the parts going over, then again on the assembled vehicle coming back. The automakers would be in a position where they are better off sourcing parts entirely outside the US and building in Mexico, taking the single tariff hit. There’s a lot of unintended consequences that could happen.
At this point who knows,
But even for ford, that 25% tariff on Steel & aluminum from Canada is gonna be a hit on those F-150’s. And most other US built cars. And how is it gonna work on things transiting the US to Mexico? Steel ore going to now rather go through the St. Lawrence and around the US rather than ride the rails from Canada down to Mexico to make parts and avoid a double dipped tariff.
Yeah, it’s almost as if the people enacting these tariffs haven’t actually thought it through! Huh!
I work for an automaker and the answer is – we don’t know. None of this has been actually formally and correctly documented. The last time around we simply stopped importing vehicles and parts – and then Trump changed his mind a couple days later. we will see what happens this time.
Nothing major will change in the short run as even adding a shift to an assembly plant that is already tooled will take about 3 months and who knows what will happen in that time. Building a new plant is more like 2 years from kick-off to startup.
Your last sentence is a possibility. Labor is 7x more expensive in the USA than in Mexico. Right now raw materials are cheaper in Mexico as the metal and NAFTA tariffs stack. So there is a 25% tax on imported steel and aluminum AND another 25% tariff if that steel comes from Mexico or Canada and a 40% tariff if it comes from China. Then there are the parts which Trump is talking about taxing at 25%. It become entirely possible that it is cheaper just to build in Mexico and pay a 25% tariff on the final vehicle.
You are correct that part can cross the border multiple times. Take a piston. You can have the raw material from Canada imported into the USA (50% tariff), That material is made into a piston in the USA. The piston is shipped to Canada (XX? retaliatory tariff) and assembled into an engine. That engine is then shipped back into the USA (25% tariff) were the engine is put into a Ford Super Duty.
I work for a supplier, our parts go across the border to Mexico for a GM Tier 1. They are welded into assemblies at Tier 1 Mexico location, with some shipped back here, some going into the current Mexico builds. My employer could eventually benefit from these policies, if they are actually real. There is a 0% chance we would survive long enough to benefit. I don’t think these tariffs are really going to happen at full scale, and each time Trump does this, it throws a wrench in the works. I don’t understand why he had to go after automakers. I mean, other than that he’s an insane quasi-king pissboy. He’s the one who brokered the updated USMCA! Why wouldn’t he just try to change the terms of that agreement again?
Yes, a lot of suppliers are going to be hurt by these tariffs and some will go under. When a company has a couple percent margin there is no way they can absorb a 25% tariff.
And now you have an idea of the hell these idiotic tariffs are putting the logistics and manufacturing industries in.
I don’t care for Gob…
Soda was great tune. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yectAV5Dpa4
NGL, I was hoping “studying the book of Job” was just a euphemism for “watching Arrested Development”, but alas…
I was expecting illusions but based on Matt’s account, it sounds like it’s mostly tricks.
If the Autopian goes bust, there’s always money in the banana stand.
Lexus already went over the lease end cliff. Dealers went from a steady stream of lease end customers to virtually zero—or customers demanding thousands of dollars just to ground their cars at your location.
The problem is mainstream mass market luxury cars like 3-series, C-class, Lexus IS, X3, GLC and RX went from being something like $3000 down $400 a month plus tax OR $0 down $600 a month to now being $6000 down $750 a month. Oh and remember how before your $3000 down lowered it $200 a month? Well now that $9000 down $750 a month lease is like $1100 a month th with zero down… and so now adding more cash at it has less impact than before.
Similar to how the benefits of buying a USED car are near an all-time low, leasing a new car the benefits are near an all-time low.
I leased a Corolla with leather seats for $0 down $150 in the year 2013. That doesn’t exist today. Nor does a $3000 down $400/mo luxury car.
I’m used to economics news here, but I never expected a Job’s Report.
Also, what stupid script are you running that keeps randomly blanking out your site? Is doge coding your HTML now?
Lololol. Also, can you email support@jazel.com regarding the site blanking? That’s the first I’m hearing of this.
happened to me a few time today. I thought it was the old Jalopnik.
Something in the page load gets hung up and we’re left with a blank screen. After clicking Refresh, it reloads pretty quickly.
It only seems to happen on my Android phone’s Chrome browser, which is my usual tool for viewing. I don’t recall it happening on my Windows 11 system, also running Chrome.
Not sure if that will be of any help or not.
Happens to me on Firefox. Windows 7 and 11 if that is helpful.
I’ve seen the site blanking as well. It seems to have started after I stopped getting redirected to BS “your computer has a virus” sites caused by malicious ads.
So I think it might be related to blocking the redirects from malicious ads.
But that’s just a hunch.
The same thing happens to me, I figured it was just my computer.
Me too. I assumed it was my computer and trying to plot a pdf map which seems to destroy my entire computer at times.
Same here. Happens a few times each browsing session. Also some weird “McAfee scan starting now” whole page ads.
Heinlein’s Job: A Comedy of Justice is fun & more easily grokked than the King James book
What now?
Hey God! How about helping out the entire world.
Just take the asshole out, please…
I’m atheist and even I’m praying.
Thanks. We need it, obviously.
“Just take the asshole out, please…”
And help out Luigi Mangione while you’re at it… Make it so he makes parole, is gifted another ghost gun and then is miraculously invited to a Trump rally.
I keep hearing how these tariffs will help bring back American manufacturing and lift back up blue collar workers primarily in the midwest or other depressed areas. How exactly? While manufacturing could return, I can’t see it being with the average joe working on an assembly line. The most cost effective option is through automation, invest in some robots and there’s no need to pay to train and support a human worker.
Americans demand too high a wage, manufacturing work only makes sense in places where working wages are low. That’s why manufacturing shifted to Chine, India, etc. in the first place. Maybe the Trump long game is to tank everything so hard we tank straight back to a pre industrial revolution economy.
Distract, deny, divide, and conquer!
Actually, even China is pretty expensive to manufacture in these days. I work in manufacturing and looking at production costs in China vs the US, the US is still more expensive, but the gap has narrowed a lot.
That, coupled with geopolitical factors like tariffs and sanctions, is why southeast Asia has exploded as a manufacturing hub: Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, etc. Thailand in particular is a massive automotive and aerospace manufacturing hub, supplying cars to much of Asia.
I love seeing Thailand and Vietnam come online as manufacturing hubs! China is a powerhouse, but having competition even though they will resist it will actually make China more competitive—as well as the USA. Politics aside free trade in theory will make it so wherever it’s most efficient to do something is where it’ll take place.
No joke, my wife’s employer recently shifted some work from China to Vietnam. The reason – the owner didn’t want to do business with a communist country. My wife being a smart-ass pipped up and said: “You know that Vietnam is also a communist country – right?” Always stirring the pot – I married a good one!
Their plan is to re-enter a new guilded age like it’s the 1880s. It’ll be billionaires and a bunch of dirty people with coal smeared all over our clothes and bodies…
And we’ll all be so stupid we will defend the billionaires and their rights to shut down the department of education and take from the poor and disabled.
Ahh, now all this maga talk makes sense. That sweet factory job. And lest not forget landline telephones, soda jerks, that rustic horse and buggy and last but not least, slavery. Lets party like its 1899. Thanks Donnie!
Go forward a hundred years, not backwards. Think Panem, and we poors offering up tributes. After the top 1% finish taking all our money, offering up our kids will be the only thing left for them to get from us.
Sadly, I honestly can’t tell you how much of that is hyperbole.
I still haven’t found anyone that’s excited to work in these mysterious factories that will be popping up everywhere. Essentially the response is “No, I don’t want to, but these jobs will be for all the poor slobs that the news have told me are everywhere, but I personally don’t know. These aren’t jobs for me, my family, or my friends!”
As usual, people seem to believe that everyone BUT them wants to work some sort of factory job. I’ll never quite understand why. Even crazier, I cannot fathom why anyone would think that these jobs are going to pay well.
Being one of the many people easily bored with repetition and prone to repetitive motion injuries, I’ll take my not factory job, thanks.
As wise man Dave Chapelle said during the first round of Trump tariffs: “I wanna wear them Nikes, not make them!”
The Maverick is a great example of why I love free trade and hate tariffs. I have seen numerous articles and comments raving about how wonderful it is to have a small, affordable, desirable vehicle for sale in the US. This only happened because it is built in a country where labor is cheaper. If Orangey goes through with his tariffs, that vehicle is now no longer affordable. The tariffs might kill off the Maverick. That sucks.
Everyone (including me) likes the idea of manufacturing jobs returning to the US, but the tradeoff is too much. Things that are currently cheap (food, clothes, electronics, etc.) will now be expensive, and things that are currently expensive (houses, vehicles, etc.) will now be incredibly expensive. Reciprocal tariffs will harm our exports, which will offset most or all of the benefit gained by onshoring manufacturing.
It is frustrating both Democrats and Republicans have decided free trade is bad (Democrats killed the TPP and Republicans are attempting to kill NAFTA/USMCA). I don’t think politicians and voters have thought through the implications of imposing trade barriers. Trade barriers may bring back jobs for a few, but 100% of us will be adversely impacted by higher prices.
Free trade created the world we live in. If free trade becomes a thing of the past, we will have a reduced standard of living. Anyone who says otherwise is misinformed or lying.
We could do it without making labor cheaper if we just accepted slightly less profits.
That literally goes against the creed of capitalism. Shareholders will balk, the company shares will tank and the end result is you slowly go out of business. What you’re asking for works in a socialist/communist ideology.
I respectfully disagree. The primary issue with the current wave of unfettered capitalism IMO is that “line must go up,” in perpetuity, which is impossible and parasitically destructive. If one considers the time of American corporate “greatness” to be the 1960s, one difference is that a company could maintain a reasonable and stable level of profitability year over year and be considered successful. Companies weren’t forced by ravenous shareholder lawsuits and private equity to increase their rate of growth year-over-year simply to maintain peace with their shareholders. This ethos causes all kinds of short-term decision making which is almost uniformly negative to both the company and society.
Individual multi-millionaires don’t need to become billionaires, and billionaires shouldn’t exist in a society that wants to be equitable.
I am not an economist, so please take this with multiple grains of salt.
We just need to change the law such that all stakeholders in companies are treated fairly, not just stockholders. This is the model in Germany, for instance.
I agree with that sentiment wholeheartedly. I’m merely stating the current state of affairs rather than what it should be. There are surely companies that value stable profitability but there are many more companies that swing the opposite way sadly. That’s just the current state of our system.
Ford already does that with high margin vehicles like the F150 and Super Duty. Ford could make a bigger profit building these in Mexico, but they choose not to because offshoring production is controversial for obvious reasons. Ford accepts a lower profit margin because the difference in profit is not enough to warrant the controversy of building them outside of the US.
Cheap vehicles like the Maverick have narrow profit margins for the manufacturer. I doubt there is enough profit to compensate for the 4-5x increased labor costs of building these in the US. The probably would literally lose money building the Maverick here if they sold for the same price. The other choice is to pay the tariffs and raise prices by 15%, but then the Maverick is no longer the great value it currently is.
This is not an issue of corporate greed. This is simply an issue of the extreme difference in labor costs on different sides of the border. With free trade, both sides at least derive some benefit. If you eliminate free trade, Americans have higher costs and there will be substantially increased poverty in Mexico.
One irony I see is that trump wants to kill free trade while simultaneously stopping illegal immigration and the drug trade. If we increase poverty in Mexico and Central America, that certainly won’t reduce illegal immigration or the production/importation/sale of illicit drugs.
It’s not “us” needing the profits. The wealthy continue to take more and more share from the working class—and to no real benefit to themselves.
If a rich person who will never spend even half of their money will have even more money? It won’t change anything.
Some of us have to beg for things like $1 an hour… that’s $40 a week. And the ruling class makes it so you have to feel afraid to ask for your $160/month raise while they add more money to their coffers they’ll never ever spend. It does make them feel like bigger men when they sit at the club at the golf tournament, though.
Automakers already have low margins and auto parts manufactures even lower. Anytime someone says companies should just make less profit I always ask the same question – but never get a response. Here goes:
Considering you can get a guaranteed 4% return on a Treasury or CD. How much more do you need to earn to invest in a stock and take the risk of losing money instead of making it?
While I agree with most of your sentiments, free trade isn’t what gave us our standard of living.
The labor movement and unionization, and the advancement of workers rights are the main things that lead to our current standard of living: 40-hour/5-day work weeks, etc.
Free trade made it so the United States makes advanced medical equipment like X-ray and CT scanners and computers and operating systems—and developing countries make the shovels and more basic items. That’s what free trade has done. It’s allowed us to “advance” at home for better or worse.
I don’t disagree with you at all. The standard work week and laws that protect safety and wellbeing of workers were huge factors in creating the world we know.
My point was about the difference between our current standard of living (in the US as well as other countries) and that of a hypothetical 2025 without free trade. I think it is fair to say free trade helped optimize economies and created the standard of living we have today.
My frustration with the move toward protectionism is that the downsides of free trade (i.e. job losses) are easy to see and use as a political talking point, but the upsides are less obvious. For example, I wonder if The Autopian could exist in a world where free trade never happened? I have always read that smartphones and laptops would be prohibitively expensive if they were built domestically. If these devices weren’t ubiquitous, it is hard to imagine websites like this would exist, or that conversations like this would happen.
“Everyone (including me) likes the idea of manufacturing jobs returning to the US,”
And everyone who says that is really showing their lack of understanding when it comes to macro-economics, international trade and history (when it comes to WHY things changed).
I suspect the people buying pickups today, not to mention Porsches, will be just fine with a modest increase in price. Heck, Porsche can’t seem to keep cars on lots.
What I’m concerned about is the future of the affordable car.
At least, there likely isn’t one.
I predict a near zero probability that American auto employees are going to work at a wage level that makes cheap cars possible today, and tariffs will make more cheaply made cars built overseas too expensive to be worthwhile, These are cars that are already walking a fine line for margins, so increasing costs further just makes it harder to build a business case to build them.
I hope everyone that needs cheap transportation enjoys their 10 year loans!
One of the many ways in which the economy is being rapidly transformed into a money funnel for billionaires. Keep the population in debt for as long as possible. Make debt mandatory.
The money funnel is just a facade. The real goal is to distract, deny, divide, then conquer. Funneling the money away is part of those steps.
There’s no facades any more – there’s no need to have them. They’re very open about everything they do now because they finally have ultimate power and won’t be relinquishing it.
There could be tons of awesome cheap cars under $20,000. The technology is there. We just choose to go along with the whole needing to have $70,000 trucks we don’t use thing.
That’s part of it, but margins on those sub-$20k cars would be razor-thin. Yes, our own shopping habits play into what cars are on the market, but we’re also pushed in certain ways based on what automakers choose to sell.
As for “What now?” Lunch, I reckon.
Poor Matt.
The contents of his lighthearted automotive news roundup has so quickly pivoted from the ascension of the hybrid and jokes about Carlos Tavares to a never ending, shit-filled pit of despair.
Shit happens.
Especially when you live under a brain deficient, sex abuser, tax evading, tiny mushroom dicked felon dictator.
But yeah, poor Matt.
If you want the handful of manual-transmission sporty, yet affordable cars from Japan or Germany in the near future (think: 86/BRZ, Miata, Nissan Z, GR Corolla, Jetta GLI), you’d best buy fairly soon, methinks.
Manufacturers won’t eat losses on low-volume, low-margin cars. They’re too low-volume to bother with building in the United States. A Miata priced at Mustang GT level is a non-starter from a sales point-of-view if the pricing just reflects the tariff.
Vehicles with low margins and low volumes are DOA. Pulling them out of the market would be the only logical response.
Porsche can probably pass on the cost of any tariff to its well-heeled audience. Same with the BMW M-series cars. All but the most desirable and higher volume models won’t make it worth it to either build that into the price (if built elsewhere) or produce in the US.
Do expect the resulting contraction in vehicle availability to worsen the noncompetitive pricing at dealers for all models regardless.
Well said. It is the VW GTIs and Miatas that will be hit not the Porsches.
You’re presuming that the Mustang GT or any other hypothetical domestically produced sportsmobile will remain at the price it is now. With competition blunted, it most likely won’t.
No matter what, the limiting factor will be whatever buyers are able and willing to pay. Clothing cost a lot more in the ’60s and ’70s relative to wages; moving production offshore cut that to the extent that nominal prices aren’t much more than they were in the early ’90s, let alone inflation-adjusted prices. With that memory still fresh, people will be resistant to either paying more or reducing perceived quality, so sales volume’s likely to drop for some time. Car prices will be limited by the same factors, so I expect the used market to strengthen a lot as people at each higher rung on the price ladder move downward. Whatever the modern equivalent of a Chevette might be produced, so all of you who say they just want a simple cheap car may get your wish. Or carmakers may just chase the slice of the population that can still afford new under this paradigm and chase margins over volume. The ’70s kind of split like that, with small, cheap cars (disproportionately imported) for the young and those battered by inflation, high gas prices and insecure employment coupled with ever-broughamier broughams and personal luxury coupes for the middle-aged and established with fixed mortgages and plenty left to spend.
Some economists have made noises about stagflation coming back, and although we know what to do about that, the cure was pretty painful and will be harder to implement without moving some production offshore to reduce costs (which is also what happened along with controls on the money supply.) And part of the stated rationale for bringing China into the global economy from its position of isolation before Deng Xiaoping took over was to make it a part of and a beneficiary of a stable world order that’s a lot less likely to rock the boat, which apart from the odd artificial island in the South China Sea has been more or less true over the past forty years.
There’s more to say – I haven’t mentioned global equity, and if the main per-capita generators of carbon dioxide and extractors of global resources hog all the manufacturing jobs they’ll prevent other countries from improving their living standards the way that Japan, South Korea, both Chinas and the rising countries in Southeast Asia have been doing (say what you will – and there’s a lot that can be said – but the globalized economy really has raised hundreds of millions of people from poverty over the past few decades), but I’m on my phone and starting to squint now.