It’s a fun thought experiment to think of what Stellantis and Tesla have in common, mostly because one company is extraordinarily successful and the other is repeatedly having its existence called into question. There are commonalities, however, including both being run by controversial executives and both seeing sales declines in the United States due in part to aging products.
I called 2024 the “Year of the Hybrid” and this was the correct call, though I also thought the market might get above 16 million annual sales in the United States. That didn’t quite happen, though a strong end of the year got us close. It’s much the same in Europe with regards to hybrids, although in Europe sales are actually going down as the calendar turns to 2025.
We were all at risk for a massive airbag recall that would have caused all sorts of havoc, but it looks like that isn’t going to happen yet as the Biden Administration punts. All those EPA waivers that California wanted? No punting there; the White House walked those straight into the end zone and went for the two-point conversion.
Year Of The Hybrid!
It’s my favorite time of year! Automotive data powerhouse Cox Automotive is out with its annual report. I already did the Steve Martin/The Jerk phone book bit (which David did not get) so I need to work on some new material. Until then… “THE COX AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY INSIGHTS AND FORECAST 2025 REPORT IS HERE!
As teased in that unnecessarily provocative headline, it was a good year for some and a bad year for others, and there’s a way to view 2024 through the prism of age-of-product and drivetrain. If you had a lot of new product you probably did fine. If a lof that new product was hybrid you probably did great. If you have a mix of hybrid, EV, and ICE you also probably had a good year. Pure EV was mixed, but mostly not great.
That’s an oversimplification, and I refer you to the chart above that shows where the largest automakers (above 300k in annual sales) managed to shake out this year based on current data. We’ll have exact numbers in January, though this is likely to be accurate enough for us to draw some conclusions.
Only three major companies lost market share in 2024: Stellantis (-1.6%), Tesla (-0.3%), and BMW (-0.1%). I don’t think Stellantis requires that much explanation, as the company ignored the North American market and starved it both of new product and incentives in the first three quarters of the year. Stellantis will improve in Q4 thanks to finally dolling out competitive incentives, but still end up 15% down year-over-year.
If Tesla were a normal car company you’d have expected them to update the Model Y this year in the US and introduce a more affordable Tesla Model 2. That didn’t happen. Instead, we got a Cybercab prototype and an expensive Cybertruck. While the Cybertruck is now the most popular vehicle in America that costs over $100,000, that’s not a huge market. Much of this was inevitable, as dozens of new EV models hit the market and you can see why Tesla CEO Elon Musk doesn’t care about losing the EV tax credit as it helps his competition way more than it helps him.
BMW is basically break-even this year and up in Q4, so not really worth talking about in detail.
What about the winners? GM is the biggest automaker in the United States again at 2.7 million sales, up 4.2% year-over-year and representing a 16.8% share of the market. The strength of brands like Buick, the health of trucks, and a strong EV portfolio all help. I assume GM would be in even better shape if it had hybrids, but it’s doing well enough. Toyota is also up year-over-year, but saw a big stop-sale sap some of its energy during the year. Toyota is more hybrid-focused, though it does offer some EVs.
Honda is extremely healthy in the United States thanks to robust hybrid sales, increasing 8.1% year-over-year. It also picked up the most market share, growing to 8.8% overall. This means that Honda (with Acura) is now bigger than all 6,000 Stellantis brands in the United States.
The biggest mover in terms of overall sales was Mazda, up 16.3% year-over-year. There are a lot of factors here, though a mix of new product, affordability, and high incentives are helping drive the company. Mazda is also the outlier here in that it has a lot of PHEVs but no regular hybrids.
My prognostication that 2024 would be the year of the hybrid has been entirely borne out by sales numbers with ICE vehicles down 2% y-o-y, BEVs up 8%, PHEVs up 19%, and regular hybrids up a whopping 26%.
My other guess, that the market could probably get above 16 million sales, was probably wrong. Cox-KBB assumes we’ll hit 15.979 million. So close! What did I get wrong? I didn’t see inflation creeping up in the first half of the year, which delayed rate cuts, which in turn slowed down credit availability.
You can’t win them all!
European Car Sales Still Stuck In Reverse
One of the reasons why car sales probably increased at the end of 2024 in the United States was the brief respite from political uncertainty. One person was victorious, the other one wasn’t, and it was all resolved pretty quickly. Is political uncertainty back in the United States? Hell yeah it is, with one Republican Senator calling the budget/debt-ceiling issue a “fascinating mess.”
It was a fun, like, two weeks of not worrying about politics. In Europe, it’s way worse. France’s President Macron has been going through potential Prime Ministers like one of us scrolling through Cars & Bids. Germany is going to have to elect new leadership. Ukraine is still at war. It’s rough out there, and the removal of EV incentives in various countries was just a pile-on.
As you can see in the graphic from Europe’s main car industry group, carmakers can’t seem to keep any momentum going, and it’s only been getting worse. A lot of this has to do with powertrain mix, as the report points out:
Registrations of battery-electric cars declined by 9.5% to 130,757 units in November 2024. This drop was primarily driven by a significant decrease in registrations in Germany (-21.8%) and France (-24.4%). It resulted in a year-to-date market volume 5.4% lower than the same period last year, with the total market share now at 13.4%.
Plug-in hybrid car registrations fell by 8.8% last month, following significant declines in France (-19.6%), Belgium (-61.4%), and Italy (-31.4%). In November, plug-in hybrids accounted for 7.6% of the car market, down from 8.1% last year. Year-to-date volumes were also down, decreasing by 8% compared to the same period last year.
Hybrid-electric registrations increased by 18.5% in November, with market share rising to 33.2%, up from 27.5% last November, exceeding petrol car registrations for the third consecutive month.
I guess it’s the Year of the Hybrid in Europe, too, but not enough to make up for drops in every other type of drivetrain.
Massive Airbag Recall Isn’t Happening… For Now
It was around this time last year that I scared everyone with the prospect of a 52-million vehicle airbag recall involving Autoliv/Delphi/ARC Automotive airbags. It would have been second only to the Takata airbag recall in scope and a huge pain.
Is it happening? Not yet, as the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration decides to make it the new administration’s problem. From Bloomberg:
U.S. auto safety regulators backed down from forcing a recall of about 50 million airbag inflators they have said could explode in a crash, de-escalating a fight that has dragged on for years.
NHTSA said in a new filing that “further investigation is warranted” before it can finalize a decision about whether the parts are defective, a necessary step before an involuntary recall. The agency reconsidered its stance after reviewing comments noting manufacturing differences at plants where the components were installed, according to the document posted Wednesday on a federal government website.
Most companies voluntarily recall vehicles or parts, but NHTSA can make a company go through with a recall if it wants to. In this case, it doesn’t seem like it wants to deal with it yet.
Biden Gives California Its Waiver
It’s hard to say what President Biden’s legacy will actually be when we look back in 30 years. Presidents don’t get to choose. President Johnson’s legacy has been remarkably rehabilitated, with the impacts of extending the Vietnam War being measured against his expansion of the social safety net and Civil Rights.
Even though Presidents don’t get to choose, they at least get to try. In this case, it’s clear that President Biden thinks of himself as a President who used regulatory action and industrial policy to change the country’s environmental trajectory.
Will he be successful? A new Congress and a new President, as well as the courts, are going to have to decide that. But by granting a last-minute waiver to California for its EV Mandate he’s certainly trying.
The Biden administration finalized a decision Wednesday allowing California to enact influential and long-planned vehicle emissions regulations that set an effective 100% electric vehicle requirement for one-third of the U.S. auto market by 2035.
The regulations — if they survive the significant administrative and legal challenges to come — could serve as a powerful bulwark against incoming President Donald Trump and his repeated vows to unwind Biden-era policies that promote an industry-wide transition to EVs.
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, which used its federal authority to give California permission for the new rules, had been preparing for years to make the move in a way that it said would be “durable” against the already-mounting number of lawsuits.
Hold onto your hats, folks, because none of this is going to be resolved anytime soon.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
Apple Music decided I needed to listen to Cat Power this week and, well, I can’t disagree. There’s no Cat Power album I don’t love, but I probably go back to “The Greatest” more than any of them, and it’s in no small part because of the quiet yet energetic and soulful beauty of “Lived in Bars.” I’ve always heard the song as a ballad of intemperance. Some people are inclined to want more than they can handle and finding it in a bottle or a pill often ends poorly, yet overfilling your cup with other people can end very well, indeed.
The Big Question
What does that sales chart look like at the end of 2025? Who grows? Who shrinks?
Are the CARB waivers subject to the Congressional Review Act? If so they’re gone. Only takes a majority vote and isn’t subject to filibuster.
Sorry Matt an article that didn’t need a complete read. In fact both Tesla and Stellantis are both profitable and old design. At least until now. However, as I const state the problem at Autopian is a failure for any employees to understand economics. You roll out sales, yes important but if you lose money on a sale big sales ruin the profit but you think it is a success. What is a profitable company is revenue minus costs. And as I have read hear an old platform has paid all the R&D so it’s all profit. Nothing in your story is information about profit. Funny yesterday you did a Miata is still the answer. Mazda is using the same damn formula, making the same car for decades with out much change, yet Mazda is celebrated for a useless 2 seater convertible that does nothing but Tesla and Stellantis have showed insane profits on the same basis of the Miata. Why Miata yeah but Stellantis and Tesla Nay when Mazda is closest to bankruptcy?
If this move by the Biden administration holds, a more interesting question is what sales charts will look like at the end of 2034.
I am thinking Trump can overturn all Biden agreements because mentally damaged. If Biden fights that he is claiming he is aware enough that he can be prosecuted for his treason actions. Anyone who thought trump is guilty for jan 6th must admit Biden is ten times worse and is needed to get his diaper changed in prison.
lololol
Based on my truck shopping this year, I’m not surprised to see GM sales up. Their pricing was by far the least extortionate of the major truck manufacturers, and I actually paid considerably less for my truck on an inflation-adjusted basis than I did for my previous one.
I have my concerns about GM with the stupid AA/CP decision and pushing their own data subscription, but they have some solid product at a solid price right now. I’m even a little bit tempted by the Equinox EV after seeing them in person.
I really wanted to hate the Equinox EV when I saw one at the dealer while we were shopping to replace our minivan, as the normal Equinox hasn’t been a compelling option over the competition…well, ever, but the Equinox EV was pretty dang good from a design perspective (they only had a showroom model so they wouldn’t let me drive it).
I just bought a GMC. Wasn’t planning on it, but I couldn’t walk away from a great deal. I scored a ’24 model, so I got my AA/CP too!
Get em, Mazda!
I’ll be curious to see if Mazda’s new product demand continues through 2025. It seems unlikely that they could flip above Tesla but one company keeps rolling out desirable, affordable products, the other less so. Tesla is much more interested in profitability than market share though, as far as anyone can tell.
I wouldn’t necessarily say that Mazda doesn’t have ANY traditional hybrids. The CX90 and CX70 ICE variants are all mild hybrids, and while they don’t offer the fuel economy benefits of full hybrids they’re still way more efficient than their competition, especially for city driving. A CX90 gets 24 MPG city. For comparison’s sake a Palluride twins and Pilot get 19 MPG city and the Mazdas also beat the pure ICE Highlander (22) and Grand Highlander (21).
Highway figures aren’t all that different but if you’re someone in a city who sits in a lot of traffic 5 MPG is a big difference. I think it was clever of Mazda to make the default engine a mild hybrid. Anyway, Mazda also understands what we want. People want affordable nice transportation and even normies like cars with some character (I see Bronco Sports everywhere).
Mazda offers better interiors than their non-luxury competitors, their cars are priced competitively even before incentives, most of their cars are comparatively efficient, they’re pretty reliable, and they’re not soulless appliances. They’re fun to look at and fun to drive. You can even get them in colors! It makes perfect sense that they’re doing well and I’m glad their premium push seems to be paying dividends already.
They’ve also taken some risks that have paid off! Anyway I’ll stop gushing, but I really respect what Mazda is doing, I’ve always liked their cars and I never hesitate to recommend them. I also appreciate that their whole lineup has some soul, especially as someone who’s going to be shopping for a family hauler soon. As the wife will be daily-ing it it’s ultimately her decision, but I’ve been banging the table for a CX90 since it was announced, and in the disappointingly far from 0 chance that my car fully shits the bed there’s a good chance I’d get a Mazda 3 turbo hatchback in that cool beige color.
This. I’m a Mazda fanboy (I’ve owned four – my current one is a Mazda6 that I’ve had since new and is now approaching 9-years-old). Their “upmarket” push made me nervous as hell and I thought I might end up with an orphan and join the ranks of Suzuki and Saab enthusiasts, but it appears as though I was wrong.
The partnership with Toyota will only help things further.
Kansei Engineering ftw zoom zoom
Mazda 3 Turbo Hatchback: This is the way.
Still grinds my gears (pun intended) that they chose not to offer a manual transmission with the AWD turbo, although I’ll admit it does drive very well.
Only reason I got a CX30 Turbo PP this year was because the 0% financing offer didn’t include the 3.
My wife’s also getting a car to haul around family…but we’re in crossover territory because my mother in law needs something she doesn’t have to climb out of. No kids here, shudder. If they take my advice we’ll be in a CX-5 or -50.
But definitely not in any shade of beige. I guess that’s where our Mazda adoration goes in different directions.
I test drove a CX-50 recently, it ruled! I would have bought it but the sales manager was being a dick, so I walked. Stumbled into a good deal on something else for the wife, but I’ll be shopping Mazda again when I move on from my current ride in a year or so.
The Jerk is my dad’s favorite movie. We used to watch it 2-3 times a year growing up.
“I was born a poor black farmer…”
Child not farmer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4zcEQtG_Ugo
Market share is irrelevant for Leon since Tesla will soon be the only automaker left. Or something like that.
Stellantis has nothing to sell. I’m surprised they didn’t lose more.
Slightly outside the AM Dump, you can now build a 2025 4runner at toyota.com, just in time for Christmas: https://www.toyota.com/4runner/
I’ve played with that a bit, pricing is just crazy. I’m so disappointed in the new Runner, as a 5th gen owner I was really looking forward to the new one, but it’s meh in almost every way. Weird styling, ugly interior (I also hate it in the Tacoma), and no increase in offroad capability. Apparently, Toyota is fine with letting Jeep and Ford continue to eat their lunch when it comes to offroad.
I’m in the minority in that I’m okay with the new powertrain. IMO the 4.0/5speed is the worst thing about the 5th gen.
my 5th gen only has 185K on it, I’ll probably just keep it till the frame eventually rots out.
The pricing is crazy and it sucks that you can’t get a third row in the hybrid. That seems like a real miss to me.
There’s just no room for it with the battery pack in the back. Thy hybrid really doesn’t do much for economy anyway, IIRC it’s actually worse on the highway than the non-hybrid. And if one needs a 3rd row, IMO the 4R is not the vehicle to get. It’s really only suitable for smaller kids and I think the main purpose is just to be a selling point for people who think they need a 3rd row. It also eats into cargo room when it’s not in use.
I know all of these things but my heart wants one instead of whatever soulless family appliance we’ll inevitably wind up with. At least the CX90 dream is alive and well.
CX90 is going to be the better family hauler by far.
Have you been in one? Not a lot of room between floor and ceiling.
The third row is for taking six kids to baseball practice. Also, you put the grandparents in the middle and the kids in the back and you don’t have to take two cars to dinner. It’s useful to some people, and not useful to others like almost everything else.
For us that was what the roof rack was for. Around town like that it was fine, but it was too much aero drag for road trips.
Minivan has room for 6 kids AND their gear.
Toyota sells the Grand Highlander with three rows as their “minivan replacement” SUV. The 4Runner doesn’t need to do that too.
I agree that for most people Highlanders and minivans are better for that stuff. I’ve had two Highlanders over the years. They are more comfortable on long road trips, although my 4Runner is a Limited and it’s plenty comfortable. The issue for me — and I guess I’m in the minority –is all three row vehicles have gotten so bloated over the years that the only new one that would fit in my garage was a 5th gen 4Runner.
The current gen Highlander got longer and wider and if I make a two inch mistake I’ll need a new garage door. The new 6th gen 4Runner is 5 inches longer, 3 inches wider and also won’t fit. To my knowledge there is no shorter, reasonably narrow three row vehicle available in the USA except for the Benz GLB thing and I’m not interested in that thing. At least once every winter I drive 1200 miles up and back from LA to Puget Sound region with dogs, people and stuff. Two mountain passes on the route that are snowy more often than not. 5th gen 4Runner is the answer for me.
Now if Mazda made a new Mazda 5 with all wheel drive that would be pretty great.
Replied elsewhere by mistake, but you’re right. The Highlander and Grand Highlander are the “minivan replacement” SUVs in Toyotas lineup.
GH gets quite a bit better gas mileage too, even the Hybrid Max version. About the same price as a loaded 4Runner.
Yeah, whenever prospective buyers post in the 4R groups about needing a 3-row vehicle while having no interest in off-roading, I always recommend the Highlander. Highlander is a better car in every way, and it even tows the same as the gen5 4Runner.
Yeah, my 5th gen has 55k miles on the odo. I’m a fan of the durability of the 4.0, the 5 speed is subpar, and the gas mileage is abysmal. It is a kiddo hauler because the the backseat has tons of room. If only I could have gotten the 3rd row with the TRD ORP.
The new base TRD OR has heated seats. I’m a fan. I think the 4 cyl. turbo will be great, it looks like the backseat is the same size as the 5th gen.
Pricing… YUCK.
I’ve been expecting a piece on 4Runner pricing here since it was all over a few news sites last week.
I just wish a moonroof were a standalone option outside of Premium trims, cheapest version with a moonroof knocks on $55k. An SR5 Premium might also suffice but that’s no longer a trim.
Me too as another 5th gen owner. I bought a 2024 to replace an older 5th gen when the new one was revealed. I’m a grown person and I can’t drive around in something that silly unless it’s French.
I have a friend who had a poorly aging 2012 SR5, she waited so long for the 6th to be revealed because she wanted to replace it with a new one, preferably a hybrid. Once she saw the new one, and the stats, she bought a new 2024 SR5 5th gen.
I too have considered trading my 2013 OG Trail for a much newer one, but the high prices and rates cured me of that.
Here is hoping it loosens up Grand Highlander supply a bit.
I do like Heritage Blue with the Portobello interior. Too bad Toyota will have like 5 of them in the whole country and dealers gatekeeping them for $10k over sticker.
I am expecting market share for Tesla to decrease even more if they eliminate the tax credit. They are about to be the Stellantis on EVs, same old vehicles. Unless DT (Not David Tracy) helps Tesla to rollout robotaxis removing regulations.
Today there are a lot of EVs that are very competitive and have access to Tesla Superchargers, I still don’t understand the high sale numbers of Tesla.
I would still buy TSLA stock because the NHTSA will outlaw all non-tesla vehicles. and the Justice Department will arrest anyone not complying. Which reminds me, gotta get in on some Neuralink trades before the FDA mandates it. See you shortly!
Sounds like the same reason why I’m considering officially joining a church.
I’d like to do it before it becomes mandatory and avoid getting sent to re-education bible camp.
We need to start a “Scientific Church”, NOT Scientology, but one that focuses on science as the thing to worship. Then, the rest of us can jump on the tax evasion boat with the rest of the country.
Hail science!
I would love to be a Saganist.
Hail Sagan!
We are strong, for we are billyuns and billyuns.
Hail Sagan to you!
As a Saganist, the Solstice is a big holiday.
It is an actual astronomical event, and happens at the same time for everybody across the globe.
Light a fire on Saturday. Nothing will happen luck wise, but tradition is fun 🙂
Holy Sagan!!! I didn’t know that’s what I was until you just told me. That’s pretty awesome!!!! Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Let’s turn that into a religion!
My take on it is basically Paganism + Hardcore science appreciation.
Sermons would be reading, and explaining new discoveries and advances in science/astronomy with a discussion afterwards.
It would be welcome to all, except bigots, fundamentalists, and conspiracy theorists.
Yes… Saturday. I definitely won’t set any other fires before then…
Is Asimov one of the disciples?
He was a bit older than Sagan, so I think possibly the other way around. But I like Sagan’s commitment to hard science and non-fiction (I love Asimov’s writing, to be sure).
I also find it really funny to establish a religion in Sagan’s name as it is sooo outside of what he would have probably wanted.
Though if it were ‘religion’ in name only and spread the Good Word of empiricism, critical thinking, and the scientific method, he might be okay with it.
If not, he can always come back as a ghost and tell me otherwise. /s
I think if he was alive, he would be doing just that this month himself.
Sagan and Asimov were acquainted, if not friends IIR. Asimov wrote much non-fiction as well, just a different subject. Both were scientists and dreamers at heart. Should probably include Clarke and Heinlein, maybe Crichton from the true engineering and science based fiction side. Of course Hawking for also popularizing pure physics.
“Welcome to the Church of Psychohistory!”
I was born and raised conservative Catholic (I guess that’s redundant) and left the church in my early 20s. I spent my entire life before college in Catholic school, I had all my sacraments, I was an altar server, I even toyed with becoming a priest. It’s taken a not-insignificant amount of therapy to undo all the horrors it wired into me.
The wife and I have a 6 month old and as you might imagine there have already been some uncomfortable conversations with my family. We are absolutely not raising him Catholic, but there may come a point when it’s less trouble to just compromise than keep fighting and risk harming relationships.
That combined with the horrors ahead of us have caused me to do some digging. For what it’s worth the Episcopalians seem pretty chill and are welcoming to everyone. It’s basically Christianity without all of the draconian social beliefs. While I personally don’t believe in any traditional idea of god I will say that if it comes down to it for one reason or another it seems like that might be an okay place to go, and if you’ve received any Christian sacraments they don’t even make you convert. They’re cool with you just showing up.
Congrats on the wee baby!!! 6 months is great, just out of baby-lump stage, but still mostly immobile.
My wife’s family is Episcopalian and you nailed the description.
We’re very much not religious, but her parents (mother) wanted us to get our kids baptized. We said we would only for her, and only if it would cause her significant distress convinced her grandchild would ‘go to hell’. When we put it that way, she didn’t push for it anymore.
I’m a failed Catholic, having ditched the church at the exact moment I left my parent’s house for college in 1991. The whole ‘sit, stand, kneel then cut off fellow parishioners in the parking lot’ thing got old quickly for me.
My wife and I tried a great non-denominational (and non-judgmental) church close to home about a year ago, but we stopped going. I think I finally admitted to myself that I’m not a very religious person (shit, we haven’t even bothered putting up a Christmas tree this year). Age and what passes for wisdom has changed my opinion on such matters.
Hopefully you’ll be happier and more comfortable with the new church. Congrats on the newborn too! For the record, we didn’t force church on our now 19-year old daughter, and she still turned out good.
We do have a 5 month old puppy. He is a different story altogether. That cute little brat needs Jesus. 🙂
For what it’s worth, the Christmas tree decorating thing isn’t a true traditional Catholic practice. It grew out of pagan ritual/custom, and goes all the way back to the Romans. The Church basically allowed it to continue as a small concession after they moved Jesus’ birthday to just after the traditional pagan solstice celebrations, when they were trying to bring the pagans into the fold (perhaps flock would be a better term). Or so I was told.
Don’t tell any of that to a practicing Catholic, lest you get the ‘keep Christ in Christmas’ lecture! 🙂
I’m married to one. I’ve heard the lectures.
My family is far from religious, and my brother married into a very religious family. It has definitely caused some serious strife (my brother telling my parents that they weren’t Christian enough when their first kid was born didn’t help any) that took about 10 years to resolve but still hangs around at some level.
As a very devout ex-Mormon who left around the same age, I’ve had these same experiences.
Everyone is distracted talking about Trump and autocracy. Meanwhile the US is sliding towards theocracy. Not a big difference, but still. Could be getting dangerously close to becoming the next Iran.
It sounds like California has a plan to keep the tax credit in place, written in a way to specifically exclude Tesla, which has Musky pretty upset.
I can only say, as an engineer, that your sales prediction was exact. 21000/15979000 is a 0.13% off. Most of us ignore that. With that said, if you had said that you nailed it, some other a$$hole would just point out that you didn’t.
My predictions:
I thought Tesla was already MagaMotors. But dodge would give them dead Dino powered cars for the Maga non EV crowd
Dang, it’s hard to believe that Stellantis used to have a market share of 12-13% pre-COVID. They really need to get their act together.
Between Tesla refusing to invest in new product (other than the ugly ass, overpriced CyberTruck), Elon being a repellant human being driving away their core market, increased competition and high interest rates, I’m not surprised their sales growth has stalled. I’d expect that to continue for the foreseeable future.
We’ll see about California’s waiver… 100% BEV by 2035 honestly seems really tough to meet to me. I guess that includes PHEVs but still, that’s a radical transformation to make in a decade and I’m not even sure that the manufacturing capacity will exist to accomplish that goal, say nothing of the infrastructure challenges and cost. I guess we shall see. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it struck down by the incoming administration or SCOTUS. Then again the turd will be out of office long before then, so what happens will be anyone’s guess.
It’s 100% of new vehicles sold. Existing vehicles are grandfathered in.
Yes, CARB’s 2035 goal is ZEV not EV. ZEV = EV, fuel cell, or PHEV with 50 miles of range. Of course that is only new car sales, they expect to have regular gas vehicles on the road past 2050 as the vehicle fleet is slow to change over.
As to Trump removing the waiver – I expect the same as last time. Trump signs an executive order, that order is stayed, nothing else happens. Trump can claim he removed their waiver and that is enough for him and his core group of followers.
Now, California’s waiver could actually be removed but that would take an act of Congress to pass a law changing the Clean Air Act. Possible but I can’t see anyone expending the political capital to make the air dirtier.
Why aren’t we talking about the 16% increase in Mazda?
That’s a solid bump. They’re riding on more than Miata sales here. With fresher product than it feels at Nissan/Infiniti/Mitsubishi.
Because that just means they sold 12 more cars 🙂
Did you not read the article?
I (perhaps overly optimistically) predict Stellantis will regain some ground. Maybe not all 15% of their share they lost, but still, growing again. Tavares out, the leadership team willing to work with others, the Ramcharger coming out, even the Charger Daytona will help. Its not going to land the way they want it to, but having something to sell is better than having nothing to sell, and if they get the ICE one out next year, that will help even more. Add in the possibility of various extended uses of the Hemi or a new V8, I think they will achieve some level of turn around.
As a Stellantis warranty holder I have some concern that tariffs, especially on Mexico and Canada, will cause Stellantis to pull out of the USA entirely. But, return to the mean is always more likely.
Tesla’s overall sales will be up YoY next year but with a much higher fleet take, almost all due to Federal Government agencies with Models 3, Y and even Cybertrucks bearing GSA “US Government-Official Use Only” license plates. Sometime after the midterm we’ll find out we the taxpayers paid retail MSRP for them.
Overall EV sales to the private market will be up slightly although GM will delay the return of the Chevy Bolt in favor of a hybrid Trax/Envista and something a class up, whether a parallel-hybrid based on the new ICEquinox or a range extender in the EV one. (They will continue to confuse by using the same name on ICE and EV models that are completely different cars).
Buying presidents has it’s perks!
IANAL. That said, with the overturning of Chevron, the Supreme Court may have handed California a big legal cudgel. Basically, the EPA can’t do jack squat anymore besides wave their finger and tut. So feds pound sand. And, state’s rights. Oh wait, that’s only for red states putting women down and letting guns become the leading cause of death for children. Not blue states protecting the health of their citizens.
Mainlining hypocrisy.
SCOTUS took authority from the agencies and vested that authority in … itself. I’m not feeling super optimistic.
What SCOTUS doesn’t understand is that by providing immunity it makes themselves obsolete.
That’s a problem for the next batch of SCOTUS judges, the folks here will be enjoying their billionaire vacations for the duration.
Of course they will be on vacation. They are obsolete.
I’m still bullish on the hybrid-heavy brands. Honda and Toyota might not see the biggest percentage growth since they’re already huge (I’ll look at Mazda here). I feel like the Fed’s delayed/modest rate cuts announced yesterday are going to force people to hold on to their cars for even longer, which is good news for the secondary market being propped up, but bad for new sales. I think more than anything, 2025 will be the year of legislative “Whoops sorry we forced EVs on you” backtracking (a rare time when politics and economics align). As Akio Toyoda said around the middle of the year, hybrids really are the best allocation of battery resources. And they lean heavily on existing ICE expertise, so neither the maunfacturer nor the consumer is putting all of their eggs in one basket. PHEVs are a tossup, since they’re still pretty pricey and the Fed rebate is likely going away and I’m not sure they’ll sell very well without it.
I feel like honda has been a little late to the hybrid party, outside of the one’s it’s had for a decade. The CRV hybrid is going to be big for them now that’s it’s rolling out in some volume. The civic hybrid seems like a tougher sell against the corolla, but the higher price gets you a more premium experience. A hybrid Odyssey is what they need – they were offering the best minivan for most of the 20-teens and squandered that by not offering a hybrid. And a hybrid Pilot, and Ridgeline….basically they need more development power and hopefully they just snatch away Nissan’s
100% agree…everyone except Toyota seems to be having trouble finding the sweet spot of hybridization in the larger cars. I’m pretty sold on the CR-V and I like how Honda has integrated Hybrids into the mainstream lineup instead of making them a separate selection. The new ones really do drive seamlessly…and the Civic hybrid looks great (and almost as quick/sporty as the Si) but I just need a little more car. The CR-V is really just the Civic Wagon at the end of the day…even though I’d prefer an actual wagon.
I just moved up from an older Odyssey to a Sienna, and once the lease is up I’m going back to an Odyssey. The hybrid batteries just take up too much room, which is the main thing I want in a van. Lots of missing cubbies and just plain space compared to the old ride. My next car will be a hybrid, but not my next van.
The Civic is a midsize car while the Corolla is compact. I expect to see a difference in price. The Civic Hybrid is also 220 hp vs 138hp for the Corolla.
I agree Honda needs to hybrid everything in the lineup like Toyota has been doing.
I’d probably have bought two Toyota hybrids in the past two years if they had any to sell me.
And the Toyota PHEV situation is a joke…me, about a year ago: “Say, this RAV-4 Prime looks perfect, I should at least consider one…”*Nearest one 1,000 miles away with $52k sticker including dealer markup*”Yeahhhhh, no.”
At least around me, the RAV4 Primes are discounted now. Still pretty expensive, but I’ve seen $2-3k off advertised. I’ve also seen people doing a lease just to buy it out to get the tax rebate.
A merged Honda and Nissan-bishi would be the 2nd largest automaker by volume if they managed to keep their combined volume post-merger (otherwise what would be the point?). Is further contraction of the number of automakers in the market something that any consumer should want? We’re dealing with an Oligopoly in the ‘western’ auto market already – further consolidation at the top will only make that worse, and consumer choice (and thus our collective market power via voting with our wallets) will suffer.
I have it as the third biggest by volume…
Interesting. Looking at the table in this article from Cox Automotive and taking the data from the ‘CY2024’ column, whether I sum total volume (2.4 m units combined) or market share% (15.3 combined) it splits GM and Toyota. But 2nd or 3rd, my larger point re: over-consolidation still stands.