Most automakers–specifically American and German ones–used China like a piggy bank for decades. The period of strong economic growth in China from the ’90s into the ’00s may have been due to a rebalancing of manufacturing that ultimately was a bad thing (see: China Shock), but it created huge profit centers for these automakers.
Will that be the case going forward? China is a populous country with a lot of consumers and most of those automakers are still doing well there. At the same time, massive overproduction, price wars, and increased protectionism make it a tough place right now. Should automakers just bolt?
That’s the argument I’m going to look at this morning: Should the Detroit Three leave China?
While we’re here I’m going to speed run some other news: Ferrari EV is going to be expensive, used cars are still getting cheaper, and one dealership came up with a great way to encourage new technicians.
The Time To Get Out Of China Is Now
Last year, General Motors sold more cars in America than in China. That’s bad. Real bad. Once a profit driver for GM and its biggest market, Chinese consumers have continued to look elsewhere as Chinese cars have gotten way better. Chinese automakers also produce the most popular mass-market and most affordable EVs in the world, with maybe the exception of Tesla.
At the same time, the North American market is almost completely closed off to Chinese brands and only imports a handful of Chinese-built models, mostly for GM and Volvo. Even if China could sell cars here, Chinese automakers don’t build the kind of pickup trucks that American consumers want.
What’s the solution to this problem? According to Bank of America analyst John Murphy, it’s for the Detroit Three to ditch China and double down on profitable vehicles like pickup trucks.
Although the Detroit Three all have said they remain committed to selling in the country, excessive capacity and competition and advanced technologies offered by domestic manufacturers there have made the market tougher and boosted pressure on pricing. GM lost money there in the first quarter. Meanwhile, there’s a high risk of tariff retaliation. Murphy likened the situation to Europe when GM sold off its brands there in 2017.
“Focus on your core,” he said before the Automotive Press Association at Bank of America in Farmington Hills. “And China is no longer a core strategy to GM, Ford or Stellantis.”
That’s a tough pill to swallow, Murphy acknowledged, but he emphasized the companies should focus on generating the close-to-record profits they can obtain from their legacy business to finance the powertrains in which they ultimately need to invest to survive.
I like this argument and, specifically, I like it because of what Murphy is arguing they do with that money: invest in new powertrains.
We may have a long road to full electrification and hybrids will likely play an increasing role on that road, but to meet stringent emissions requirements and continue to be competitive as charging infrastructure improves it’s clear that automakers will have to keep building more electric cars.
And that sucks for most Detroit automakers because BofA estimates they still spend about $17,000 more on components for each vehicle than Tesla does. Will it be possible to bridge that gap quickly? Nah. Again, from the article:
“It’s going to be mission critical to ultimately becoming competitive on a price and cost basis with Tesla,” Murphy said. “Pushing volume at the moment and losing money doesn’t make a tremendous amount of sense. You really want to focus on some of the next-generation platforms to have a profitable business.”
He suggested even the forthcoming EVs from companies like Ford that executives have emphasized will make strides in cost reductions won’t be enough to bridge that gap. It will require a subsequent third generation, potentially four to five years out from now, to become cost competitive, Murphy said.
That is brutal. There’s no guarantee that Murphy is right as he’s just making a guess based on the current data and a prevailing sense of what Beijing is going to do as retaliation for more tariffs. It kinda sounds right though, doesn’t it?
Ferrari’s EV Will Cost More Than $500,000
Ferrari doesn’t build many cars, so when it builds a car it generally sells (see: the Purosangue). And if it doesn’t sell, Ferrari just makes its customers buy a Roma if they want to, later, buy a 12 Cilindri or whatever.
Will Ferrari’s new EV be a car that everyone wants or a car that the Tifosi have to buy? It’s not clear, but the new Ferrari will enter into the extra-lux electric category with a car that’ll cost at least $535,000 according to Reuters:
The price tag, which doesn’t include features and personal touches that typically add 15-20%, is well above the average sale price of around 350,000 euros, including extras, for a Ferrari in the first quarter of this year, and many rival luxury EVs.
Here’s my favorite part:
Waiting lists for some models can top two years.
“That is not getting any shorter. Being in the waiting list is in itself a status symbol,” Caldato said, noting an increase in potential wealthy customers in emerging markets, such as India and the Middle East.
It’s cool just to be on the waiting list. That’s a business.
Wholesale Used Car Prices Continue To Drop
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index has extended its price slide according to Cox Automotive:
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 0.3% from May in the first 15 days of June. The mid-month Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell to 196.8, which was down 8.5% from the full month of June 2023. The seasonal adjustment lessened the impact for the month. The non-adjusted price change in the first half of June declined 1.6% compared to May, while the unadjusted price was down 9.5% year over year.
“May ended with stronger than normal price declines in the last few weeks, and that’s continued into early June,” said Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Insights at Cox Automotive. “We are still seeing higher sales conversion levels with days’ supply down as sales have continued to run above last year’s levels.”
I sense this will continue through the summer, at least until interest rates drop and new car monthly payments come down more.
Dealership Hosts Signing Ceremony For Apprentice Techs
There’s a huge shortage of vehicle techs and it’s making it harder to get good service (or any service) for our increasingly complex automobiles.
How to encourage more people to take up the job of being an auto repair technician? Carter Myers Automotive out of Charlottesville, Virginia had the idea to host a signing ceremony for their future techs. This is a fun idea as I remember the signing ceremonies for high school athletes going to college when I was growing up in Texas.
Here’s the thought process behind this, via Automotive News:
We want to celebrate these students as they enter a career path and earn a living wage — with no college debt and great earning potential,” said Beth Lucchesi, talent acquisition specialist at Carter Myers, of Charlottesville, Va. The dealership group owns 24 stores in North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia.
[…]
“In the last few years, we’ve seen an uptick in celebrations and recognition of and focus on the trades,” Lucchesi said. “We’re not taking anything away from anyone who wants to be a lawyer or a doctor — that’s fantastic. But for the many students who don’t know what they want to do or who want to work with their hands … there are plentiful jobs within the auto industry that can provide a great living without a college education.
No offense to lawyers and doctors!
What I’m Listening To This Morning While Writing TMD
This is not a unique observation, but Sam Cooke was often playing for at least two very different audiences throughout his tragically shortened career. If you want proof of this, he recorded two live albums in roughly a space of one year: One Night Stand! Live At The Harlem Square Club and Sam Cooke at the Copa. Those are both great live albums from the same artist that are roughly contemporary with one another.
The Copa album is very much the “safe” Sam Cooke of his wonderful love songs and fun poppier songs. It has Cooke’s beautiful voice and some of his energy, but it’s clean-cut and almost chaste. One Night Stand, on the other hand, is a raucous and lustful event for obviously a very different crowd (so much so that the record label didn’t release it for 25 years out of fear of hurting his image).
If there’s a song that bridges the gap, and one appropriate for today, it’s “A Change Is Gonna Come.” With its slow, dreamy march forward carried by sweet strings and punctuated by gentle bursts of French horn, it sounds like a ballad. It’s non-threatening. The words, however, carry the weight of hundreds of years of abuse and mistreatment and yet still retain an edge of hopefulness. If you can listen to it more than once without tearing up you’re stronger than I am.
The Big Question
Should all three automakers leave China? Should one of them stay?
Uh, what? Seems like there’s a story here. I mean, I get that Tesla has optimized the hell out of the manufacturing process for their cars (for better and worse), but how are they getting the components themselves that much cheaper? Is there really $17000 worth of buttons and switches in a Big 3 car?
Big Three Advisers: Quick, run back to North America!
Big Three: OK but where’s the 5% plus growth year on year? Mexico?
Big Three Advisers: Not our problem…
> companies should focus on generating the close-to-record profits they can obtain from their legacy business to finance the powertrains in which they ultimately need to invest to survive.
Big Three: got it. We will
> focus on generating the close-to-record profits we can obtain from our legacy business to finance the stock buybacks, dividends, executive pay, and anti-union lobbying efforts as usual.
Maybe just focus less on China when it comes to sales volume? Stick around to learn how to make a competitive product against the rapidly developing EVs over there (and actually make those, that’s key!) and bring some of those designs over, but make them locally built for North America (and likely Europe, who’s flirting with similar restrictions against Chinese cars).
I’m still not over GM nuking Pontiac over Buick because Buicks were popular in China, though, and for that, I’m going to say that they NEED to bring back Pontiac. Bring back Pontiac, losers! The people need EXCITEMENT! DRIVING EXCITEMENT!
Would you be mollified by an Enclave with a hood scoop and a chikin decal?
No. Give us real Pontiacs, ya dingdongs.
WIDETRACK. We want WIDETRACK.
It’s the summer solstice today! BRING BACK THE SOLSTICE!!!
“Should all three automakers leave China? Should one of them stay?
Pull out of the biggest auto market in the world???? Long term, doing that sounds completely stupid to me. In my view, they need to find a way to compete in that market.
Used car *wholesale* prices may be going down, but either nobody is telling used car retailers that, or else they’re just making more money per unit, customers be damned.
They still have to sell the cars they overpaid for six months ago.
If the D3 brands left China right now, 1-2 of them would be out of business within 5 years. They are all in trouble anyway, globally they are getting clobbered, and within the US/Canada if it weren’t for their bread and butter trucks & giant SUVs they would be out of business.
All the D3 right now should merge into 1 company. Only make trucks, large SUVs, Jeeps & similar things, Mustangs, and Vettes. Solely focus on US & Canada. Doesn’t matter EV, FF, Hybrid. My crystal ball says that’s the only way any remanence of the US automakers remains over the next 2 decades.
I see the need and possibility of GM leaving, or reducing their presence, in China to be a spot of potential bright news. As a longtime Buick fanboy, the hope that the brand (maybe, just maybe) returning to their roots and making offerings aligned with their legacy and traditional domestic product line is there.
Today I learned that “Buick Fanboy” is a thing that exists.
My first car was an ’87 LeSabre. What can I say? You don’t forget your first.
I try to forget mine as much as possible. 92 Chevy Cavalier.
GM leaving China will likely be the end of Buick, with GMC moving a little upmarket to take its place.
Thanks, Needles Balloon. Now I’m deflated. 🙁
GM not only has manufacturing business in China, they also have engineering services too (Design centers for example). Unless they move everything to Korea, China is still a key location from a labor perspective. The latest developments in electrification are happening there, whatever they learn there, it can be applied here in America.
They should focus going back to Europe with the next Chevy Bolt and different variations of it.
And GM is not going to move all of it to Korea, if anything, they’re shifting stuff out of Korea as much as politically feasible
A ducking signing ceremony? How about we try maybe fixing the broken and toxic repair industry and its entire busted pay structure instead of cutest crap? I say this as a former member of said industry who now still works on the periphery of it.
It must be different here in Canada for techs. From the few I know personally, they really enjoy the dealership experience.
But I’m pretty sure they’re paid hourly (when clocked in) or a salary. I doubt the laws in Quebec (and likely the rest of the country) would allow only paying “book time”.
Nailed it, i was super bummed out when i just read that thats what theyre doing to new techs.
You’re still going to get screwed by flat rate but we’ll make up for that by letting you sign paperwork at a table on the sales floor while we take pictures of you.
I can’t comment on the pay situation, but I work at a trade school and this seems like a cool extra way to celebrate young graduates. Anything we can do to applaud young folks for getting into the trades is a good thing in my book.
It’s a fun idea, I have no problem with doing fun things in the work place or celebrating people, but unless that dealership is also bucking all the terrible industry trends for pay/work life balance/discrimination/etc etc I’m not impressed.
Nice to hear about that signing ceremony!
We just got a new entry-level guy and three summer-program guys—and the bosses made a big deal out of it. I and many of the older guys went over afterwards to welcome them, give out our numbers, tell them to relax and be careful: ‘You gotta have your fingers to do the work’
I love that I work at a company that values our people.
-hvac tech
Same. Although I went to college, I’ve always been an advocate of the trades. I’ve done trade-adjacent work even after graduation, and there’s nothing wrong with it. I was a product of the period in which the ethos was, “if you don’t go to college, you’re a loser.” Which never really sat well with me. It takes all kinds to make the world turn, and work is work, and anyone who wants to do it is fine in my book.
That’s awesome! We gotta celebrate our young folks getting into the trades, they make the world go round.
That’s great to hear! I feel like the tide is starting to turn against the everybody needs to go to college thing, and people are starting to wake up and realize you shouldn’t hang a mortgage’s worth of debt on every teenager who is still trying to figure out who they are. People are starting to realize the trades are viable and respectable jobs that pay proper wages.
Why is this financial analyst talking about Stellantis as if they’re American? Their HQ is in the Netherlands, their CEO is European, and most of their brands are European.
In other news, the trades are an important part of the economy and they should be treated as such. It’s great that someone is recognizing this in a public way. College is very expensive and for many people it just doesn’t make sense. Mechanics, electricians, etc. can all earn a good living and the work they do is every bit as respectable as the work I do, and definitely more vital to society.
Stellantis is an amorphous blob of a company. Incorporated and headquartered in the Netherlands, primary stock listing in the US, secondary listings in France and Italy, largest shareholders are French, Italian, and Chinese. They’re more Dutch than anything, at least from an official/legal standpoint, but it’s hard to really assign them any specific nationality, given that they have no operations in their “home” country besides their administrative offices
Not to forget that when GM pulled out of Europe in 2017, the major benefactor was not GM, but Stellantis. It doesn’t bode well as an example for leaving China or a least they can’t leave Stellantis behind. It’s not Mopar anymore.
I feel like the analyst referring to Stellantis as American is a product of “well that’s what they were when I was growing up” and makes me doubt his advice.
A crucial element of this scenario is the challenge automakers encounter in repatriating profits from China. The profits made in China tend to stay within its borders. Automakers require authorization to repatriate these earnings, and China has the authority to revoke this permission at any time.
I love the idea of a signing ceremony for new techs! Honestly, one of the things that drives me insane was how university-focused my high school was. A 4 year degree was the only option realistically presented unless you were one of the handful of kids who went to the district tech school for culinary classes. If someone had told me “Hey, you’re good at soldering in jewelry design class, you should try scaling it up to welding,” I’d be making a lot more money right now. Most of the people from my high school that I still know either dropped out of a 4 year school or are not using their degree if they got one. So much time and student loan debt could have been saved if technical education had been presented as a good option. So yes, encourage the young ‘uns!
The first cuts in education were to shop classes at all levels. The local community colleges had HVAC training that was cut deeply in 2008 and we live in an area with summer temps bouncing on 100 degrees all summer.
It’s the kind of work that will take a long time for AGI or other automation to take away.
I graduated high school in 2002 and all I remember about “trades” education is that it was universally pitched as being for the kids who were not “smart” enough. Whenever I struggled in school my mom would say things like, “If you don’t get good grades in math you’ll end up a plumber!” The message was: Go to college or end up a broke loser.
Now. I’m a corporate lawyer and college was TOTALLY for me. I loved it. But I also know that college isn’t for everyone and no job makes you better than anyone else. Glad we are moving away from that attitude (at least in my circles).
Also my husband is in residential construction and most of those guys make absolute BANK.
Same for me. We were presented with go to a university or work at McDonald’s as seemingly the only options post high school, no talk of the trades whatsoever. My professional life led me to work at a local tech college and my eyes were opened. Now I help students navigate their way through their trade programs, graduate with no debt, and start earning more than me almost immediately!
Engineer here – I steer as many kids as I can to the trades. There is a nationwide shortage of welders, ironworkers, pipefitters, steamfitters, millwrights, carpenters, plumbers, electricians, etc… You can likely work anywhere in this country you want to and make a good wage doing so. Pushing all high schoolers to college was a big loss.
My middle child just graduated from the local community college with an associates degree in science (basically pre-engineering classes). She had planned to go to K-State for an engineering degree next. But, now she is talking about going to UTI and becoming a motorcycle mechanic. I LOVE the idea (her mother, not so much!) I did engineering school many years ago, but didn’t finish. I was a “smart kid”, and felt like I disappointed everyone. Wish I’d gone to a trade school now..
I suspect they’re all asking whether everyone else will leave so the remaining one can try to gain market share as the American manufacturer there.
That would put GM in an interesting position, as it has already abandoned Europe for all intents and purposes. That would make GM a significantly smaller player.
GM also abandoned India and Australia, has significantly cut back in South Korea, and, of course, is out of Russia (the last one probably goes without saying and can’t be helped), they’re down to really the Americas and China, and pulling out of China will leave them with nothing else big that’s left to cut the next time they miss a quarterly earnings forecast, so if theyre going to do it, they better make sure they really need to do it and make it count
So GM is repositioning as a small-batch, artisanal automaker.
They’re transitioning from too big to fail to small enough to fail
“Growth is the next CEO’s problem!”
-Probably Mary Barra while double checking her severance package numbers
Should I stay, or should I go now?
Should I stay, or should I go now?
If I go, there will be trouble
And if I stay, it will be double
So come on and let me know
I think The Clash have spoken.
At any rate, if they can break even in China, they should stay because things will likely improve at some point.
I’m curious, why do you think things are likely to improve for them in China? Things were great when China didn’t have their own manufacturers worth anything. Now Chinese manufacturers are globally relevant, and Chinese buyers seem to be gaining a sense of patriotism around those manufacturers. What do you believe is going to bring that back around?
“Should all three automakers leave China? Should one of them stay?”
My bet is on a miracle from Jesus…
:-p
China is where all things EV happen. How else to benchmark yourself against the global leaders without being there?
Now that China has stolen all the manufacturing tech possible from American companies, they don’t really need them in China anymore.
Exactly. The ‘strategic partnerships’ required for American manufacturers to access the Chinese market was really just the Chinese playing the long game to modernize their manufacturing and umm… ‘copy’ American IP. And now, the US is no longer terribly useful to China, plus the Chinese economy is slowing, giving the Chinese government less incentive to allow profits to escape overseas. The slowing economy isn’t a good sign, but the past decades have allowed China to race forward, catch up, and use leverage to influence global affairs.
“That is not getting any shorter. Being in the waiting list is in itself a status symbol”
Just when I thought Ferrari couldn’t get any more insufferable they spew this nonsense. I’m not sure if there’s a more conceited corporation in existence and it’s such a huge turn off to me. Obviously my feelings are irrelevant, since I’ll never be able to afford one and I won’t even pretend to understand what goes on in the minds of people who can…but fucking yikes.
Say what you will about Lamborghini, but at least they’re over here like “WE WANT YOU DRIVE LIKE A LUNATIC! We made an off road version of our super car and we’ll paint it PINK for you! Go nuts!” I know who I’d rather hang out with, that’s for sure.
Its so true. Aesthetically, I prefer Ferrari design. Lambo is too ostentatious. But my hell, at least they lean in to it pretty hard and don’t send cease and desist letter cuz you wrote purrari in THEIR FONT. Friggin douches. Makes me want to very publicly do things like put a ferrari drivetrain in a super hammered corvair or something then constantly hit them up on social media about it.
I think they’d be more upset if you put a Corvair drivetrain in one of their cars.
Ohhhhhh, thats very nice. I like it!
Take this new electric Pherrari and plop an EV1 drivetrain into it, and inundate social media until heat death.
Ferrari’s attitude is the literal reason Lambo even exists. Legend has it that Mr. Lamborghini was so pissed at the lowsy service he got from Ferrari that he decided to build his own car.
Lousy.
And it wasn’t just lousy service, but it was also a bad clutch design that didn’t hold up in regular use.
When I was younger, I dreamed of having a Ferrari. As I’ve gotten older, I’ve learned that their lack of morals doesn’t fit with who I want to be, so even if I could afford one, I wouldn’t buy one. I definitely give a side-eye to anyone who would hold up being on their waiting list as some virtuous state of affairs.
I love Ferrari, not so much for their road cars, but for their racing programs. I’ve been a Ferrari F1 fan for like 30 years, and I was super stoked to see them return to LeMans last year. If I had Ferrari money, I probably still wouldn’t buy one, as my ideal car is a 911 GT3 (non-RS). However, if I wanted a supercar type thing, I’d probably give my money to McLaren. Judging by the number of McLarens I see around here, there are a lot of folks who feel the same.
Ferrari seems to appeal to those into being members of cliques and private clubs.
So in other words, it’s for people who are full of themselves.
Hence the reason why Jay Leno doesn’t have any.
I love Ferrari, they’re easily my favorite of the “mainstream” super car brands. I think their cars, even the current lineup has consistently looked the best, I love their historic cars, I love their race cars.
But it’s getting harder and harder to keep liking them with the cease and desist letters for doing anything to their cars, and the whole “Oh you can’t just buy this car even though you have the money, you need to buy other Ferraries first to build a reputation with the brand.” stuff they’ve been doing more and more lately. The wait list in and of itself I don’t have a problem with, they can only build so many cars at a time so it makes sense that it’s first come first serve, but promoting being on the wait list as some sort of flex is crazy to me.
But much like you, it doesn’t matter at the end of the day. I’ll never have Ferrari or really any supercar money in my lifetime and that’s fine with me.
If Ferrari would make a small, single cab, long bed pickup truck with a manual I’ll consider purchasing from them.
I think there’s a decent-enough case for GM to be the one to stay in China. Buick still holds cache there, GM has Chinese manufacturing, and they’ve got mature partnerships with heavy hitters in the area. Stellantis can claim some of the same points, but that’s mostly through their Euro brands.
From what I understand, Buick only survives due to heavy subsidies, and the Chinese OEM’s are actively stealing their market share.
Yeahhh…. Buick’s cachet has taken a nosedive in recent years. Their market share has halved, sales are down tremendously, etc. The last person familiar with the Chinese auto sector I talked to said basically Buick has gotten the image of an old man’s car and is behind the competition
Old men need cars though, right?
Glad the Chinese finally caught on.