I am, first and foremost, a baseball fan, partially because the sheer volume of games means that you don’t often need to harness all your hopes to the chaos of one single match the way you have to with football. Take the poor Detroit Lions, who last won a playoff game so long ago you could have watched them win and walked into a GMC dealer to buy a Syclone (and then watch them lose while the “new car” smell still lingered). But alas, the Lions are resurgent, and GM has taken notice.
As much as people love consigning their emotional well-being to football teams, there’s a whole different class of people who do basically the same thing with Tesla stock. Those people had a bad day yesterday. We’ll talk about that in this installment of The Morning Dump, as well.
Building Cars Is Hard (BCIH, we should probably shorten that) and Apple has realizzed that again, once more delaying its electric car. At the same time, it sounds like Apple is backtracking a bit on automated driving.
Finally, Biden is vetoing a bill that would ban certain materials coming from China in EV chargers.
GM Delaying Flint Third Shift For Lions Game
We all know that Detroit-area residents, and, especially, the GM employees in Flint, Michigan have had it good for so long. Nothing bad ever happens to people in Flint, Michigan. It’s paradise, really. It therefore felt almost karmic that the local-ish football team, the mighty Lions of Detroit, have somehow managed to lose nine playoff games in a row going back to the 1991 Conference Championship.
If you were in Michigan and alive in the 1990s, you’d have had to endure losing the Wild Card round of the playoffs five times in seven years. That’s rough. That’s super rough. I once watched my dad legit tear up after the Buffalo Bills managed a historic comeback against the Houston Oilers in the AFC Championship when I was 10, but that was just one game. This is a lifetime for some folks in Flint.
Now that the Texans have been knocked out I’m definitely pulling for the Detroit Lions, who have managed a close victory over the LA Rams in the Wild Card round and a one-score victory against the Buccaneers of Tampa Bay a few days ago, setting up only the second Conference Championship game in Lions history against the 49ers.
I’m not alone. General Motors is going to delay the third shift on Sunday at its Flint, Michigan plant where the company builds HD Silverados and Sierras, which are highly profitable lines and vehicles.
There’s a great thread about this on Reddit and I love the comment from the poster:
In my 13+ years at GM I’ve never seen a postponement to start the week…even 2 feet of snow wouldn’t do it lol. This is for the city! Go Lions!
Some of the quotes in this thread are pretty great, including:
Translation: We know it’s unlikely 80% caught the same 24 hour bug so we’re just going to shut down for the day
I’m not expecting David to be any use on Monday if the Lions win. [Ed Note: True. -DT]. Here’s another one from Reddit:
I put in for the Sunday and Monday the day after the lions clinched the division.
I was like ya know, I’ve had to work the night of the Super Bowl the last 5 years…. I should play this one safe.
Props to the Detroit Free Press for following up with other automakers:
Ford Motor Co. did not immediately provide a comment on whether it has any plants that may need shift adjustments for the game.
Stellantis spokeswoman Jodi Tinson sent the Free Press the following statement in an email: “Stellantis is proud of our hometown team, the Detroit Lions, and all of the excitement their victories to date have generated for the City. While we celebrate that success and root for another win against the San Francisco 49ers, Stellantis will run normal production schedules on Sunday to meet the expectations of our customers and dealers.”
Booooooo! BOOOO CARLOS TAVERES! BOOOOO.
Tesla Loses 8% Of Value As Elon Musk Admits EV Growth Is Going To Slow
Excuse me while I get super Millennial here, but as a mall-prowling youth I spent some of my time in a clothing/culture store called Gadzooks (it was the ’90s and this seemed normal). It was a clever move for a retailer to focus on the teens that actually inhabited ’90s malls, especially in Texas where the chain began and it was normally 9,000 degrees Fahrenheit outside.
The brand was a success and started spreading out beyond Texas. Unfortunately, Gadzooks expanded super fast and built stores in every mall it could find space in, sort of overestimating the appeal.
I say all of this because there’s clearly a growing demand for electric cars, but that demand probably isn’t going to be huge, linear growth anymore. At some point the early people who can justify the cost and life changes will have EVs and other people will need to be persuaded.
A person who agrees with me is Tesla CEO Elon Musk, according to Reuters:
Musk said growth would be “notably lower” as Tesla focuses on a cheaper, next-generation electric vehicle to be made at its Texas factory in the second half of 2025, which is expected to spark the next boom in deliveries.
But his remarks fell flat with investors, with Tesla set to lose more than $50 billion in market value, if premarket loss hold. Its stock was already down 16.4% this month, as of last close.
“The Tesla headlines have essentially gone from bad to worse,” said TD Cowen analysts, noting that the fourth-quarter revenue and profit were also below expectations.
Gadzooks!
Biden’s EV Charger Conundrum
One of the ways to increase adoption of electric vehicles is to fix the country’s under-built, crappy EV charging network. The problem? America is woefully behind on the technology and materials to do so, but one of the cornerstones of America’s policy towards electrification is to move away from a reliance on foreign (mostly Chinese) tech and materials.
An industry can’t be spun up overnight so the choice is between delaying the rollout of our charging networks in order to give time to domestic (or at least friendlier) sources, which will lower demand for electric cars, OR swallowing some foreign goods. This is even more complex because even the American-built chargers, from American companies, creating American jobs… sometimes need materials from China.
The Biden White House has decided to use a Reagan-era waiver that allows federal money to be spent on certain projects that require goods or materials from countries without free trade agreements. Both the House and the Democratic-controlled Senate passed a GOP-led bill that would basically reverse that.
Here’s how ABC News sums it up:
Supporters said the congressional measure would keep China out of the supply chain for EV chargers, a politically potent idea that appeals to lawmakers in both parties.
“If we’re going to spend $5 billion of taxpayer money to build electric vehicle charging stations for the United States, it should be made by Americans in America using American products,” said Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Florida, who introduced the resolution last year.
The Senate approved the measure, 50-48, i n November, despite a White House veto threat. Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana, along with independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, joined Republicans to approve the measure.
President Biden ultimately vetoed the bill, which may come up later this year.
Apple Is Going To Stop At Level 2+ Autonomy
Remember when we all clowned on MotorTrend back in 2016 for having an “exclusive” look at the Apple Car that was just a render for a car that was supposedly coming this year and would be a self-driving EV? Yeah, no shock, the car isn’t going to come out in 2024 and now we’re learning it’s not even going to be self-driving.
After previously envisioning a truly driverless car, the company is now working on an EV with more limited features, according to people with knowledge of the project. Even so, Apple’s goal for a release date continues to slip. With the latest changes, the company looks to introduce the car in 2028 at the earliest, roughly two years after a recent projection, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the deliberations are private.
Apple’s secretive effort to create a car is one of the most ambitious endeavors in its history, and one of its more tumultuous. Since it began taking shape in 2014, the project — codenamed Titan and T172 — has seen several bosses come and go. There have been multiple rounds of layoffs, key changes in strategy and numerous delays. But it remains one of the company’s potential next big things — an entirely new category for the device maker that could help reinvigorate sales growth. Apple’s revenue stalled last year as it contended with a maturing smartphone industry and a slowdown in China, its biggest overseas market.
BIHC. Also, as utterly silly as the MotorTrend cover was, a small part of me was upset eight years ago that I didn’t think of doing that first.
What I’m Listening To While I Write This
It’s grey and cold outside and I’m perhaps a bit homesick for Texas, so a little “The Late Townes Van Zandt” from “Townes Van Zandt” seems in order.
The Big Question
Lions or 49ers, who you got? Also, how does this make you feel about Stellantis?
Stellantis can afford to idle their Michigan plants for a few hours for the game, and might even benefit.
Let’s go through their list of Detroit area plants (data from Wikipedia):
-Detroit Jefferson & Mack – Jeep Grand Cherokee and Dodge Durango (the GC had a 167 day supply in December)
-Dundee Engine – Pentastar and Tigershark engines
-Sterling Heights Assembly – Ram 1500
-Sterling Heights Stamping – ‘metal stampings’
-Trenton Engine – Pentastar engines
-Warren Assembly – Ram 1500 Classic and Jeep Wagoneer (1500 Classic had a 250 day supply in September and the Wagoneer has infamously been having sales issues)
Bonus (idk if Toledoans identify more with the Lions or the Ohio team):
-Toledo North – Jeep Wrangler (still selling quite well)
-Toledo South – Jeep Gladiator (200 day supply in December)
-Toledo Machining – ‘steering columns and torque converters’
Right? They need to meet the expectations of their customers and dealers? Their dealers are probably screaming for rebates, not more inventory.
Well, Michigan lost Toledo (and some land) to Ohio in the savage Toledo War of 1835, so… I guess it’s where your loyalties lie on that one
Also, hard to imagine having to cross shop the Lions and Browns
“Stellantis will run normal production schedules on Sunday to meet the expectations of our customers and dealers.”
What customers?
They gave us wars to mitigate our crumbling economies.
Then they gave us football to forget we were at war.
They gave us nonsense aspirations of excess.
As if we too could drive classic Porches and modern Rivians.
Us plebeians?
All lies.
I’m fine with my old work horses.
There’s an honesty in an old beater that can’t be broken.
A simple truth of real freedom.
… Go Hawks!
How to set an automobile website comments section alight: write about football.
Hoping for a Lions victory, not optimistic.
My opinion of Stellantis cannot get lower.
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO LIONS!!!!!!!
I would prefer the Lions to win, but I expect the 49ers to. Stellantis’ choice about staying open has not lowered my opinion of them.
Heartworn Highways is incredible, the Townes parts are the best!
Waiting for the union to say that it is unfair to the other GM plants not in the Detroit area and that the rest of them should shut down too. Fort Wayne truck assembly in particular – that’s a region with not just Lions fans, but Colts, Bears and Bengals fans too (with maybe the oddball cheesehead here and there). I know a few people that work there… I should ask them (although none of them are football fans, AFAIK).
Hey, remember the Saabaru hero? We’ve still got $500 to go to reach the goal. Give a little bit of your love today to this wonderful young man who foolishly just wanted to meet Jason, David, and Handsome Goose (that’s my possibly offensive nickname for S.W. Gossin).
Make your donation today and feel slightly better about yourself, or the world, or something.
Save the Saabaru!
Thank you Crank Shaft
I was going to…and let it slip. You’re a real mensch, sir 😉
I broke a 2″ thick wooden coffee table when the Bills took the lead.
A little SRV is more appropriate for Texas this week:
Stevie Ray Vaughan – Texas Flood (Live at the El Mocambo) (youtube.com)
Packer fan here. Theoretically, I should hate the Lions just for being in the division, but that’s impossible under the current circumstances. I live in 49er land, and I’m generally happy when they win just because that make so many of my friends and family happy. Not this game! Although I expect the buzzsaw 49ers to make short work of the Lions, I’ll be rooting for the upset. Either way, though, congrats to all you Lions fans out there – it’s been a great year! Here’s hoping there’s more time off for big games in the future.
The 49ers didn’t look like a buzz saw against the Packers. There were at least half a dozen plays that probably should have been made that would have resulted in a Packers win (not to mention the terrible spot on 4th down that really flipped momentum).
True, but I think some of that had to do with the couple of weeks off that the 9ers had. It’s possible that they’ll play below their potential again this week, but I’d be surprised. They had a scare thrown into them and they’ll be looking to close the game out early. On the plus side for the Lions, it looks like Deebo may be out – that can only help.
Agreed. I’m firmly in the camp that you should play your starters for the entire regular season, at least for a quarter or two, especially if you have a first round bye locked up. Every team that sits their starters for two weeks in a row looks terrible the next time out.
Then again, the Vikings laid a smackdown on them earlier this season so maybe the NFC North is just their kryptonite. 🙂
I think it’s hilarious how much Lions fans hate the Packers but Packers fans are super hyped on the Lions. Lions fans respond, LET US HAVE THIS RIVALRY!!!!
Anyway, go Lions! Dan Campbell and Goff are some of the least hate-able figures in the NFL.
Go lions. From a Wisconsin guy
Pro sports: the epitome of productivity. :SIGH:
If the only source of materials for oil rig drill bits was China, you can bet the waiver would have been signed.
The Apple car thing reminds me of how so many narcissistic billionaires want their own airlines. It’s a shitty business. Why? What’s the saying? “If you want to make a million dollars opening a winery, start with 10 million”.
I feel like Stellantis could meet my expectations of them with a lot fewer people on the production floor.
Gadzooks had definitely been wiped from my memory. Bravo on weaving a such a specific, defunct store into a Tesla story.
I’ve got to imagine that unless you’re a Niners fan, you have to be rooting for the Lions, even if you care little about football. I’ve always rooted for sad rust-belt cities in most cases. If you live in LA for instance, do you really need to distract yourself with sports championships, especially during the winter? Just go outside or something instead.
Also yes, boooooo Stellantis, BOOOOOO.
Even after the fall Tesla still has a moronic market cap of ~$575 billion. There is a lot more falling left to go. Toyota is valued at $320 billion even though it makes more than 5 times as many cars, has massive brand equity that is not being actively tarnished, and has competent leadership that appears to respect fiduciary duties.
Vapor ware or betting on the come. All that with an Ahole running the thing. What could go wrong?
Driving around Detroit you will see marketing related to the Lions, CALL SAM with a blue background. GM changed their logo during last game. Everyone in the office is wearing their shirt or hoodie with the lions logo. The city will go crazy if they make it to the super bowl, and I am so happy to be part of this. The city has changed for good in so many ways, there is still work to be done. Its so cold in the D!
Michigan freeway billboards consist of (highest numbers listed first):
Cannabis
Accident Lawyers
Mega Churches
Casinos
Dentists who liberally apply drugs
(distant sixth)
Universities
That explains why some of them are pretty vague. The loophole sounds like something our government would allow.
“It’s so cold in the D”! What a JAM I had forgotten about. Thanks for that.
“But his remarks fell flat with investors, with Tesla set to lose more than $50 billion in market value, “
I’m a TSLA shareholder and I’m fine with his comments and weren’t surprised by them.
I’m holding for long term growth.
And as the year goes, the Cybertruck and semi will start contributing more and more to the bottom line as the year goes on.
And this new sub-Model 3 vehicle will likely take Tesla to the next level. But I don’t expect it to be available in volume before 2026 or 2027.
Pretty much. If you’re in for the long game and have a solid grasp of the fundamentals, this is an easy hold. I’m happy with my position too.
There is no way you can justify buying or even holding Tesla stock based on the fundamentals. Tesla is purely a speculative stock these days, and has been for years.
If you believe Tesla is the next Amazon and want to bet on that then be my guest, but don’t lie to yourself about the fundamentals. The financials don’t support a stock price this high.
The TAM does, but you have to be able to look at what they are doing as much more than cars.
^^
This.
Even if Tesla grows its production volume more than 5x to catch up with Toyota, it still cannot justify its current market cap.
This rock will continue to fall and you can look at other companies that make less than 2 million cars per year to see what the shares are worth.
And baby Jesus Musk will not turn it from a mid-automaker to an “AI and Robotics” company unless you dilute your shares.
Well then I suggest you short the stock and see how that goes for you.
The fact is that they are playing a long game of gradually building up their services and software revenue. They are following the Apple business model.
And to me, it looks like it’s working well so far. It’s not about the number of cars per year. It’s about the whole picture, the margins and the growth.
Tesla has set itself up to grow a lot well into the future.
By comparison, Toyota has set itself up to, at best, tread water. In the future, they are gonna get their lunch eaten by the Chinese on the low end and companies like Tesla, Rivian and Lucid on the high end… unless they turn their BEV situation around fast. But even then, they’ll still be playing catchup and it won’t be easy.
Since I lived in near Philly and Detroit at some points in my life, their teams are my “home teams” I used to say I was the saddest football fan, I liked the Eagles and the Lions. Well, I’m not as sad since the Eagles won a Super Bowl but I want to be a more well-rounded fan, so I’m hoping the Lions win it all. Maybe more factories will take off and maybe we might get an Eminem concert out of it.