The Tesla Model Y might be the best-selling car in the world, but it doesn’t hold a candle to the Ford F-150 here in the United States. In fact, depending on how you count it, the Model Y was only the fifth best-selling car last year behind a bunch of pickup trucks.
Can Volkswagen build a sub-$22k electric car for the world? Perhaps, but it’s probably going to take a partnership somewhere to pull it off (which means they’re not selling it here unless they can figure out the batteries). Oh, yeah, speaking of batteries, Congress is working on a bill to help avoid huge fights over potential battery plants.
And, finally, Ford’s Jim Farley is hitting the road to talk to dealers.
This will be a quick Morning Dump as I’ve got to get ready for our big London meetup!
A Lot Of Trucks, A Crossover, And An Electric Car
It’s a fairly strong indicator of where we’re at as a country that the most popular vehicles in America last year, by registrations, were:
- F-Series
- Chevy Silverado
- RAM PU
- RAV4
- Tesla Model Y
Americans still love (and sometimes need) pickup trucks. The Toyota RAV4 is available as a hybrid, and people are starting to love hybrids. For people who want an electric car, it’s hard to top the value proposition of a Model Y.
Of course, this is as full of as many caveats as the best-selling car in the world list, which the Model Y probably tops. Let’s start with my favorite, which is that GM splits its two trucks (GMC Sierra and Chevy Silverado) into two models across two brands, whereas Ford and Ram do not. Ford also lumps F-250 and F-350 sales in with the F-150.
According to S&P Mobility (via Automotive News), the F-Series so massively outsold the Model Y that this doesn’t really matter. Also, we’re talking about registrations as a proxy for sales because Tesla doesn’t release super detailed sales information.
Here’s a quirk that does matter, however:
In S&P Global Mobility’s analysis of retail registrations, excluding fleet numbers, the rankings shifted and a second Tesla vehicle, the Model 3 sedan, moved into the top 10 while the Model Y rose to No. 2 behind the F-Series. Full-size pickups generally have robust fleet sales for work applications.
Excluding fleet sales, the Model Y and F-Series are the two most popular vehicles in America. Clearly, Tesla needs to build a work truck version of the Model Y.
VW Might Build A Sub €20K Car
Yesterday we learned that VW might bring a hybrid to America. Today we’re learning that VW might build a sub-€20K car to market, sometime, eventually.
Four project teams are currently working on proposals for the vehicle, which has the working title ID.1, Schaefer said at a group presentation, where a representative vehicle was on display. Slides from a presentation indicated the vehicle could be ready by 2027.
[…]
VW Group Chief Executive Oliver Blume said on Wednesday that a decision on an entry-level model for around 20,000 euros would be made this year. “We are working conceptually on a solution and are not ruling out partnerships in this area,” he said.
The affordable Dacia Spring exists, in part, due to a partnership with a Chinese automaker, which seems to be the most obvious way to make this happen. Just call it the Rabbit, please!
Congress Proposes Reasonable Bill
There’s been a lot of tsuris over the existence of federally-backed projects that are somehow related to Chinese companies. Specifically, companies like Ford and Volkswagen want to build battery plants in the United States and one easy way to do that is with a partnership with a Chinese battery maker or, at least, with a Chinese-affiliated one.
For example, Volkswagen was planning on utilizing Chinese automaker Gotion for a plant in Michigan. Utilizing the California-based Gotion subsidiary, the plant in Michigan was able to access government funding. This freaked people out and continues to freak people out for a variety of good and less good reasons.
Now, a bipartisan bill in Congress hopes to give the government a little more power and leeway to investigate these companies earlier in the process to, ideally, diffuse the situation, according to this report in The Detroit News:
The Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States — a 16-agency group that is led by the U.S. Treasury and includes the Department of Defense — would complete the reviews.
“Frankly, Gotion as a company offered to have their purchase go through a CFIUS review … and the committee said ‘We’re sorry, we don’t have jurisdiction over purchases of land that aren’t right next to a military base, an airport or port,’” Slotkin said.
“So that certainly got my attention, which is why we’re expanding the jurisdiction in this bill so that CFIUS can review any purchase over 100 acres (or) a million dollars,” she added.
Rep. Elise Slotkin is a co-sponsor of the bill along with two other Michigan Democrats and one Utah Republican.
Ford’s Farley Hits The Road, Again
Ford CEO Jim Farley seems to love a road trip, which I find extremely relatable. I wish all problems in life could be solved by getting in a car with some of my colleagues and driving somewhere. Traffic down? Let’s go to Branson. Google’s changing its ad rules again? Let’s go to The Rockies. Too many writers out at once? Let’s… well that last one would be hard.
After irking some dealers in Las Vegas, and in light of ongoing debates over electrification and quality, Farley is going to try and see as many dealers as possible in a road show to some pivotal regions, as Automotive News reports:
Last year, he took a road trip along historic Route 66 in an F-150 Lightning pickup to better understand the habits of EV buyers. He has visited most if not all of Ford’s U.S. assembly plants to see what is top of mind for manufacturing workers and also has attended many dealer gatherings, including an annual meeting for the brand’s top-volume retailers.
“I think if his schedule would allow him, that’s where he’d spend almost all his time,” Sam Pack, president of Sam Pack Automotive Group in Dallas, told Automotive News.
Frick said Farley has stressed the need to focus on the “gemba,” a Japanese term for front-line operations.
“He may have something in his mind he may want to do, but if he goes and talks to dealers and they say, ‘No, you can’t do that and here’s why,’ he’s going to take that input,” Frick said. “That’s why he does like to be on the road so much. It’s not just about something he’s forming in World Headquarters. It’s about going out and making sure any decision we make will work in the real world.”
I’m here in London to meet with our UK readers to make sure we’re serving them…
What I’m Listening To
God Bless Willie Nelson.
The Big Question
Is this the year the Model Y outsells the F-Series or is the F-Series going to explode with hybrid sales? Is it finally someone else’s turn?
The only thing that can break the lock full size pickups have on the American market is the same thing that made it, a change in the regulations.
Willy is an American treasure!
Tesla should’ve just made a Model 3 or Y with a pickup bed The front half would be a regular 3/Y, while the back would be a pickup bed.
There are some Teslaminos out there.
That would be better than the Cybertruck and MUCH more profitable.
“Rep. Elise Slotkin is a co-sponsor of the bill”
Her name is Elissa Slotkin, and she needs your vote for US senate. She is running against some actor guy who played a CIA agent on TV, which is the most government experience that he has.
Justin Amash is running for that seat, too. He doesn’t believe in tariffs 🙂
If you think Amash is going to win that with today’s GOP electorate I’ve got a level 5 self driving car to sell you 🙂
It really is a shame that he can’t win the primary today 🙁
One election at a time. The primary comes first.
I hope Slotkin wins the D primary and that Amash wins the R primary 😛
Is that better? 😉
Can you provide the production numbers for the F-150 and the TeslaY in the US?
Well, no, it lumps them together as the F-Series. Just as Chevy lumps the Silverado series together and Ram does with their series of pickups. Whether or not this is right, it makes no sense to only call Ford out for this.
Also, GM is perfectly free to discontinue the GMC brand any time they want, or just drop the Sierra and tell customers to go see their local Chevy dealer, but they choose to spin two separate badge engineered models out of the platform and so have to accept that two separate models are going to be counted as two separate models.
Ford used to sell Mercury and Lincoln badged pickups and those were not counted as Ford F-Series sales
I remember the Lincoln Blackwood, but what was the Mercury pickup???
1947-1968 Mercury M-Series
In addition to the Blackwood, there was also the Lincoln Mark LT, which lasted from 2006-2014
Right, and GM enjoys the larger dealer base that goes with it.
Regardless of anyones opinion of Tesla or Musk, to have a full EV car selling amounts in the company of the Rav4 and the big three trucks, is outstanding news. I’ll never own one (holding out for the new charger!) but I’m happy to see thier success
Tesla is selling 1.8 million vehicles a year worldwide now, barely 13 years after launching their first real, volume production car model. That is an impressive archivement any way you cut it, considering the auto industry reached a high level of maturity with deeply entrenched dominant competitors many decades earlier
Capitalism: The best or most cost effective or competitive solutions will prevail.
Politics: Oh hell no, not if it’s foreign!
Is this supposed to be a flex against Tesla? As the world hurls towards global climate destabilization people keep buying a pickup that will never see more duty than maybe a couch from Costco. Research has shown that only about a third of truck owners tow anything ever with less than 7% doing so regularly.
But people want one vehicle that does it all. A pickup does a lot of things well.
It really doesn’t, honestly. They ride like crap, handle like crap, guzzle fuel, and are a pain to drive and park in cities. Modern ones are far better in terms of comfort and efficiency, but they’re still pretty bad at being a daily drive compared to a sedan or crossover.
They’re also spacious enough for a family, relatively quick, safe, good at towing and for home renovations/yard work etc.
With parking aids they’re not all that tough to park. They’re great for many people.
I’m not sure how you see a “flex against Tesla”. Nothing in the article is condescending to Tesla. If you’re not sure about that, go to the J_______ website and read any article there about Tesla; it’ll show you what a flex against Tesla is. This is simply a factual article that informs about the relative popularity of different vehicles. Like it or not, Americans like trucks and that’s unlikely to change. Even so, Tesla is far more popular than I would have ever guessed. The article points out that they are second to F series if you exclude fleet sales.
That section ends with a mention that Tesla should create a Model Y work truck. So I don’t think it’s really a dig.
I think it’s more of an honest assessment of where vehicle sales in the US are. If we want to change things, it’s important to know where things stand. Big pickups are popular. Those buyers aren’t moving to smaller vehicles or EVs, at least not in large numbers. We also get the heartening news that the Model Y is second after fleet sales are removed (which suggests there are more RAV4 fleet sales than I would expect).
Sure, we could talk about ways to change this, such as additional gas taxes, registration fees for large vehicles, range-extended EV pickups, or whatever else. But it’s important to know that the F-Series is still top dog even without fleet sales.
40% of trips are 1 person. 44% are 2 person. So, in total, 84% of trips are with 2 or fewer people. Yet everyone buys cars that seat 4 or 6 people.
You think everyone should be driving an Isetta?
“You think everyone should be driving an Isetta?”
I would love to see a traffic jam of nothing but Isettas. It would be so ridiculous how could you not laugh, road rage would be nonexistent
Don’t tailgate, or if you get stuck in a traffic jam you won’t be able to get out of your car!
Worlds cutest traffic jam?
Also, maybe stinkiest… they had a 2-stroke.
Remind me why the Prius stole the Insights lunch money?
America is increasingly urbanized, and the average persons yard space has been decreasing. Logical then, we’ve been increasing the market share of full-sized truck. Soon, we will all take our Ford F-150 on our 11 mile commute, to our office job in the service industry. Afterwards, we’ll play pickleball with our one to four friends. Likely in a large suburb. Hopefully the parking lot will be big enough for all of us.
I don’t get why so many people are obsessed with campers and mobile homes. I have such a small yard, I plan to buy a full size pickup and convert the bed into a balcony. That way I can sit outside wherever the hell I want.
We’ve got a group of old friends that all have families now. We take our RVs to various campgrounds and let the kids run free and use all the amenities as the parents drink and socialize.
It’s a good time for all.
I attempted the camper thing, figured it would save money and hassle vs hotels when road tripping to concerts and music festivals, but I just sold mine last week after a little over a year of ownership after finding out it didn’t work as well as I anticipated.
Too many multiday events require you to camp the entire time, as they don’t want lots of vehicles driving around in crowds once it starts, so I found that if I didn’t want to take time off work, I couldn’t bring the camper just to stay over Saturday night.
Also found many private campgrounds have 2 or 3 night minimums, especially in peak season, so, again, if I needed to do just a quick overnight at the destination or en route, it didn’t work. Also found a lot of restaurants, wineries, or other attractions I wanted to stop at en route didn’t have parking lots conducive to trailers, so had to be skipped. And a lot of campgrounds don’t have 24 hour offices, so if you’re arriving at, say, 10 or 11pm, it doesn’t work, have to take a vacation day and get there earlier or drive overnight to get there the following morning.
I think campers work very well for certain types of people and families, but I learned it wasn’t a good fit for me. Actually required more advance planning and scheduling and made travel less flexible and spontaneous than just getting in the car and stopping at a Best Western.
Theoretically would have saved money long term, IF it could have completely replaced hotel rooms, but that didn’t out work 80+% of the time.
EDIT: also there’s so much more crap you have to pack and unpack, sheets/towels/pillows, folding tables, food, EZ Up canopy, etc, that you don’t have to deal with otherwise
My parents had a camper when my dad was occasionally hauling from a landing too far from home. They paid by the month at a campground. When he stopped hauling from there, it essentially became their guest room until they got rid of it (insurance claim for a leak ended up totaling it). Because, like you, they found it was more hassle for their needs. They pay for a motel room for a couple nights a month to visit my sister and her kids. The camper would not save them money because of the issues you’ve mentioned.
Yeah that makes sense, a friend/ex boss of mine keeps a cabin cruiser at a yacht club near his house, he hasn’t actually taken it out in years (mainly because he doesnt want to pay for the diesel), but he uses it as essentially a floating guest house for when his kids visit from out of town and as a place to host occasional parties.
He does start the engines once in a while and get them to temp to make sure it’s all in working order
They make more sense for longer trips, like retirees who live out of them permanently or for months at a time. It’s really nice having all of your stuff with you and sleeping in your own bed even when you’re traveling.
With public parks becoming increasingly hostile to features such as the simple outside bench. Having to bring your own 70k balcony/bench combo might just be the future.
The US is a very diverse country when it comes to this. New Jersey has 96 people per mile, but Alaska has about 1. I doubt F150s are the best-selling vehicle in New Jersey (in 2017, it was #17), and you will probably be hard-pressed to find a BMW in most of Alaska.
Yeah, in Jersey, it was the Honda CRV last year, the only domestic brands in the top 5 were the Jeep Grand Cherokee at #3 and Tesla Model Y at #4.
My eyeball test in the north east tells me model 3 outsells the model Y 6ish to 1. It appears to me the Y and S are about on par, and the X is almost non existent.
Also, I don’t know what the sales numbers are for the Northeast, but I will say I also see Chevy and Doge trucks more than I do the F series trucks.
Out west the Model 3 has been quickly replaced with the Model Y as ubiquity is concerned. Tesla sells 1 in 8 cars in California and BEV is at 21.4% market share. There were half as many F series pickups sold as Model 3, 40507, with Model 3 at 82786. The Model Y however was 132636 units sold so over triple the F-150 sales rate.
Over 5$ a gallon would have me seriously looking at an EV also.
A group of 16 Govt Agencies would review EV battery companies & facilities……
Yeah how long would it take them to review just 1…. 1yr, 5yrs…. Let alone all of them. Automobiles won’t be using batteries by the time they do a few. Even if they managed to review and block any, it would be fought in court. They should just give up now, nothing ever gets done in the US, everything here is so behind or backwards cause all your wonderful politicians have done nothing useful but fight with each other for 20 years.
The FDA just banned a soda ingredient, which has been banned in pretty much the rest of the world for a while, and that Coke & Pepsi companies phased out over 10 years ago. Thanks FDA your only about 20yrs too late and its useless now as its not really used anymore.
They will allow for self-review like at Boeing and many of our food and meat processing facilities.
Since forever, I’ve complained about Ford combining very different trucks under the “F-Series” umbrella in order to top the sales charts. It’s disingenuous.
Imagine it’s 1985 and Oldsmobile claims that the Cutlass is the best-selling car in the US because they’ve lumped together sales of the Cutlass Supreme, Cutlass Ciera, and Cutlass Calais. You’d call BS on that claim, and you’d be right.
This complaint has really only been valid since 1999 when the Super Duty split into a separate line, and really is less valid now than then as cabs and such have become standardized.
Let’s also not forget that Chevy does the same thing with the 1500/2500/3500, and so does Ram, who’s arguably the worst since the 2500/3500 doesn’t share the cab with the 1500 and they lump the 1500 Classic into it as well.
The Chevy/GMC split argument is tired too. We’re long past the days that a GMC was nothing more than a badge on a grille, with every generation the Silverado and Sierra grow further apart. They share a lot of drivetrain components, but at this point they’re two different trucks, and two different brands, they shouldn’t be lumped together.
That’s something everyone can agree with.
Can’t be classic country as road trip music. If we’re on a long drive Willie’s Roadhouse on SiriusXM if the wife and my go to.
He’s a goddamn national treasure.
I believe the VW e-Up was around €21k back in 2020. It’s not that big of a stretch for them.
Skoda’s next entry level crossover BEV is going to be Epiq!
Technically, the Model Y is a light truck (Small Sport Utility Vehicle, per EPA regulations), so it fits right in with all top 5 sellers being either pickups or SUVs.
The Toyota Camry remains the best-selling car in the US with just under 291,000 sold in 2023, ranking as the #8 vehicle overall, and coming in ahead of the Tesla Model 3, the 2nd best selling car and 12th best selling vehicle, with 233,000.
Vehicle classifications seem weird at best and arbratary more realistically.
I know Tesla calls the MY an SUV
However it has all of 0.5″ greater ground clearance than a M3
Seems like the MY is really a slightly raised hatchback M3.
So a Subaru Outback with 9.5″ ground clearance is a “car” but a MY w/5.5″ ground clearance is an SUV/light truck
And this (from EPA) doesn’t help much to clear up how a vehicle is defined wrt the distinction between LDV (i.e. light duty vehicle) vs. a LDT (i.e. light duty truck) either
https://www.epa.gov/moves/how-does-moves-define-light-duty-trucks
I don’t see the Y beating the F-Series. First, there’s the popularity of the pickup. Second, the F-Series is really multiple models, which boosts the numbers. Third, as choices become available for EVs that can utilize most available chargers, the Model Y is likely to face increased competition and lower market share.
The only things that can threaten the F-Series at all would be other pickups that are competitive. The Ramcharger range-extended EV or other full-size pickups that offer a good combination of power and efficiency. Powerful and comfortable mid-size pickups at competitive prices. Electric pickups that find ways to solve the issues of towing (unlikely any time soon).
Regardless of need, full-size pickups are both desirable and capable. Even if someone’s only towing a utility trailer, they might buy the full-size because of the increased towing capacity, just in case. Even if they could do just fine in the Maverick, the comfort of the large vehicle is much better. And that’s not even considering the image that a pickup projects.
I don’t think the full-size pickup will be dethroned any time soon. If the F-Series isn’t the most popular at some point, it’ll likely be because of the Ram or Silverado.
I do know people that bought full size trucks to tow small things. Not needed, but they really don’t know how to tow anyway. So it’s better for them to have something so capable that you barely know its back there.
Case in point, I can tow my boat with our Saturn Vue just fine. Only weighs about 2500lbs. You need to adjust for extra braking, wider turns, and it handles a lot different (the tail wags the dog a little). Hitched up to a Silverado and you barely know its back there at all, it just disappears completely. There’s value in that to a lot of people.
That’s another good point. And the newer full-size pickups often have additional towing aids (hitch cameras, sway control, etc.), which further helps folks with less towing skill/experience regardless of weight.
A value to them, sure. It terrifies the heck out of me that someone with no/little experience can hitch up a giant trailer and is relying on the vehicle entirely. I’m always worried they have no idea how to handle the unexpected. This has always kind of been the case, but I’m worried it’s worse now. They don’t teach towing in drivers ed classes.
Most of them don’t teach driving either.
I would support licensing that requires additional training for towing and large vehicles. It’s bizarre to me that I could get my license driving a Geo Metro, then turn around and get an F350 and a massive camper with no additional certification.
You can drive a five ton box truck as long as it doesn’t have air brakes with a standard DL
Yep. Which feels like a bad idea.
Stop by a U-Haul and take a look at what they’ll rent you with no training or special licensing. You can rent nearly a semi and tow a car trailer with it. Pretty awesome/terrifying.
Almost nobody tows even if they own a truck.
And that’s fine. A lot of truck owners use the bed. My dad has owned trucks for decades, he’s towed trailers only a handful of times, but is always using the bed for something. If he’s not, I am, or my brother is. Having at least one pickup in the family is incredibly useful.
If one lives in the suburbs and only has a few miles commute to work, a full-size pickup is a very versatile vehicle.
GM regularly outsells Ford, but as noted in the article, GM splits their models up by Chevy/GMC. But if you add the numbers of each of those together (which you should, because they’re the same truck underneath, no different than different trims of the F series- it’s also how the aftermarket like SEMA views the data), it’s always neck-and-neck between Ford and GM. It pretty much cycles back and forth based on where the trucks are in their design/refresh cycle. Ford just redesigned? They’ll lead for a year or two until GM puts out a redesign… Then Ford puts out a mid-cycle redesign, and they take the lead back.
Yep. The full-size pickup continues to win, whether Ford or GM (or Ram somehow). And you’re right that adding GMC to the Chevy numbers would mean GM would top the list a lot of the time. I’d love to see what the numbers would look like if you split Ford’s top trims off to Lincoln or something. I think they’d lag most of the time then, but I can’t be sure.
I’ve owned too many Dodge/Jeep/Ram/Chrysler/Plymouth vehicles to ever want to live a country where Ram is the top selling. If this has to happen, please let it be the Chevy, I guess.
Fai. And, for what it’s worth, I don’t think Ram will take the lead. If anything, the Ramcharger is likely to cannibalize some regular Ram sales. Possibly enough to bump them down the list, but almost certainly not enough to bump itself near the top. The only way it helps make Ram any headway is if it doesn’t convert Ram buyers and pulls enough F150 hybrid buyers to mess with Ford. If anything, it could help the Silverado take the top spot (still unlikely).
As it becomes harder for the US government to artificially keep the price of oil low, those who choose 17 MPG will find it more difficult to keep up that pretense. Some of them will have to learn to live within their means.
The US is producing more oil than any country in the history of the world right now, I’m curious by what mechanism you think this will change significantly when oil consumption in this country has been basically flat for more than 20 years.
Remember, even if I’m wrong, the F series was the best selling vehicle in the country in 2008 when oil prices spiked too.
US oil companies are pumping oil like never before, but that oil is sold on the world market. If other big oil countries significantly decrease their oil output (for whatever reason) then oil prices will go up. Also, refinery capacity is limited. So even with plenty of oil there will be only so much gas/diesel available to sell.
Of course, but it’s not clear to me why other countries would significantly decrease their output. Small cuts in an attempt to preserve pricing, sure. That happens all the time. But nothing major like 1973, which would be suicide for Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, etc.
It’s also not clear to me how any of this is “the US govt is artificially keeping the price of oil low” as was claimed initially.
Finally, US oil consumption peaked in 2005 and was lower in 2022 than in 2000.
I just don’t see how any event short of superpowers going to war with each other is going to cause a shock comparable to 2008. And even then trucks were the best selling vehicles in America!
“by what mechanism you think this will change significantly”
“why other countries would significantly decrease their output”
The Earth’s supply of oil is limited, and if we continue to pump it out and consume it, it will run out, and currently we are not aware of any other planets that possess a supply of it.
There are decades of proven reserves and more found every year.
Peak oil has been taking Ls since the 1950s.
Oil will never run out. It may get too expensive to extract to produce an end product at a price people are willing to pay, especially if additional taxes are ever imposed to cover currently externalized societal costs
I remember vague snippets of magazine articles from my childhood (I’m guessing undiagnosed hyperlexia, and unfortunately these snippets float through my brain and dislodge information that’s a tad more practical, like when the light bill is due) referring to the cost of extracting and cleaning up oil from the Alberta tar sands as being prohibitive unless prices increased to what at the time would have been absurd levels. But extraction techniques improved and their costs balanced out against market pricing. Fracking is similar. But, again, externalized societal costs come into play. and since using alternative energy sources is now possible and likely to approach price parity within the next decade, it’s a good idea to move that way and save oil that can be extracted more easily and cleanly for plastics.
Never run out? On what do you base that?
There was a definable volume of plant & animal biomass that was converted into crude oil. Once we have extracted the oil that is the product of that volume, THERE IS NO MORE. There aren’t magical extra dinosaurs that we can conjure up out of thin air.
There is no shortage of oil globally. The inexpensive easy to retrieve deposits are diminishing. However technology is improving.
Example, the Bakken deposits in North Dakota have been known about for decades, however it wasn’t affordable to exploit until the tech was available for steerable drilling. Alberta has oilsands deposits larger than Saudi. They’re just expensive to extract, so there has to be pricing to support it.
Yes, it’s a finite resource, however the timeline for the exhaustion is well beyond any of our lifetimes, even at current consumption.
You’re talking “human” stuff here. The oil was there long before we were around. And we can’t make more.
Its just like the fuel in the sun. It will run out someday.
Oh, but we can make more. Hell, we already make 10% of all gasoline and California is almost all biodiesel. It’s all a matter of how much people are willing to pay vs getting it from the ground/deep sea/tar sands/etc
To be fair, Peak Oil did happen in 2005 for conventional means. Unfortunately, 1950’s man didn’t see oil sands, or fracking or how dip the hole can go coming.
And not to doubt man’s ability for creativity, but we’ve gone to great lengths to find and extract all the oil possible. We’re at the point now that find new large oil deposits seems unlikely.
And we live for decades. If oil depletion was like a hundred years away, fine, I’ll be super dead. But decades, I’m not going to be even kinda dead. I’m not trying to live in interesting times after oil depletion.
I’m not saying oil is infinite.
I am saying that demand growth is slowing, new reserves are still being found, global oil use is projected to peak around 2030, and finding enormous new deposits are not going to be necessary to maintain prices at a reasonable level decades from now.
“decades from now” = short-term thinking.
OK, still waiting for something from you other than ancient peak oil talking points.
Do you dispute that global demand growth is slowing?
Do you dispute that oil demand is forecast to peak before the end of this decade?
Do you dispute that there are more proven reserves this year than last? And more than at any point in history?
Do you dispute that as demand plateaus or decreases while reserves continue to grow that there is no supply crisis on any foreseeable timeline?
Do you have an explanation for your ridiculous statement that the US is somehow “artificially” keeping the global market price of oil low, or will you continue to dodge that?
The reality of every current trend is that humanity will exit the oil era with trillions of barrels still in the ground. There is no Mad Max scenario in our future barring nuclear war.
I’m not talking about economics, I’m talking about geology. If a store has 16 gallons of milk, and there are no cows to produce more milk, and no new deliveries of milk to the store, and someone buys the 16 gallons of milk, then all of the milk is gone. They’re out.
The same holds true for oil. Terms like “demand” and “price” don’t mean anything. There was a finite amount of biomass that was converted over millions of years into petroleum oil, which means that there is a finite amount of oil in the ground. Finding a new reserve does not affect this number- it stays the same as it has since before humans walked upright. A new find only defines what humans know about, and not what actually exists.
Since the amount of oil in the ground is finite, it is possible that humans will consume almost all of it, to the point whereby further extraction becomes impossible.
So when you say “decades from now”, you’re projecting your own life expectancy and you’ve determined that “there’s plenty of oil for me”. And you’re right, it’s not going to run out before you & I are pushing up daisies.
But here’s a newsflash- the world keeps going after we’re gone. And if the world keeps using oil, eventually the finite supply will run out. Or at least be so close to gone that it’s a moot point.
Consider this. It took millions of years to accumulate and concentrate that biomass into oil. But we’ve only been burning it like crazy for a little over a century, and we’re already making huge dents in the reserve supply.
Think longer-term, because myopia will be the death of us.
Do you really believe humanity will still be reliant on oil 100 years from now? I certainly don’t, which is why a timeframe of decades makes sense to consider. I have young kids, I have every reason to think beyond my own lifespan. I’m as unconcerned for them as I am for myself.
Do you really believe humanity will still be reliant on oil 100 years from now?
Yes if for plastics alone.
That’s not reliant in the sense that civilization would stop if we ran out like it would today.
You underestimate the importance of good plastics.
There’s probably lots of virgin undiscovered oil left. (Un)fortunately its off limits in the Antarctic and under miles of ocean.
It just needs to get out there. Develop some interests. Maybe take up a sport. If it does all that, it will look better and feel better and the female oil is bound to notice.
Oh the female oil is interested.
Daddy oil OTOH is NOT.
“Decades” ain’t “forever”. IT’S FINITE.
“currently we are not aware of any other planets that possess a supply of it.”
We do however know of whole planets and moons made of hydrogen and methane. They’re even (by deep space standards) easily within reach. There is no shortage of fuel.
Fuel isn’t the limiting factor, free oxygen is. That takes photosynthesis which AFAWK is limited to Earth and Earth like conditions.
OPEC in coordination with Russia have steadily cut production to artificially increase the price of oil to help Russia fund their war in Ukraine.
Back during Covid Trump coordinated with Saudi Arabia to cut production due to the drop in demand was tanking prices and they’ve never fully restored production even at the request of president Biden when he visited their country.
With oil being a commodity it doesn’t matter how much we produce every time OPEC does anything the prices will go up.
Yep, and US producers have picked up the slack. Oil costs less than it did in 2022. Hurting enemies and increasing domestic production seems like a win-win to me.
Oil is kept artificially low by the political, tax and military policies of the United States.
We’ve gone to war repeatedly to preserve access, then the US also grants the oil companies extraordinarily favorable treatment regarding access, taxes, fees, and royalties.
The subsidies aren’t direct, but they’re real, and they’ve cost the US taxpayers billions of dollars, and thousands of soldiers their lives.
If only Tesla had decided to make an electric truck the size of a Tacoma instead of wasting so much engineering and production resources on the Cyber. A truck like that could have printed even more money for Tesla while also being price competitive. As a bonus for Tesla it may have stolen some of Rivian’s thunder.
Per Elon, a Tacoma-sized Tesla truck would be “annoying”.
Funny, that’s what a lot of us think about the Cybertruck. And Elon, for that matter.
Any size Tesla truck is annoying.
Strange how so many gardening businesses love them.
Could you imagine a Tesla – Maverick size truck? Now that is something that would have been worth considering.
That would be so simple, too. You could probably build that on the Model 3/Y platform, saving some development costs.
I think the Rivian R1T is a perfect sized truck. It would have been considered full-sized 25 years ago, but now it’s scaled down a bit, like the Toyota T100 “fullsize” back in the 90’s.
Unless parking is a concern, I’m not quite sure I see the value in a Tacoma sized truck anymore. They’re too big to be “small”, but they’re kind of small for family use. Every review of the new Tacoma notes that the rear set room is quite small.
I think the Model Y sales will actually decline in 2024
I’m guessing you’re right. As other EVs get access to the Tesla charging network, the competition is looking better. Also, the upcoming Model Y refresh is bound to encourage some would-be buyers to hold off. Model Y demand has likely peaked; even if it hasn’t, it’ll probably slump this year.
The charging network is like 90% of the draw when it comes to Teslas. The rest is essentially range, but others are getting close. Teslas also lag way behind from an interior and overall design standpoint. Their sedans look pretty good but their SUVs look awkward and bloated.
As other people get access to the charging network the main selling point will be gone and Tesla is going to be forced to actually improve their products for once. Whether or not they succeed is anyone’s guess. I’ve heard “Tesla will eventually just be a battery and charging infrastructure company” takes and I don’t think they’re that outlandish.
Those are the two things they’re objectively great at. Making cars is more or less just something they half ass. They’re also not status symbols anymore. The EV market has crashed hard enough that almost anyone can find their way into a Tesla if they really want to. The brand cache isn’t going to last forever if the products don’t improve.
I think we’re about to see the real test of whether they are objectively great at running a charging network or if it will struggle once the walls are gone. I believe they chose the wrong location for the charging port (rear passenger would make more sense for curbside chargers), and I think that they’ll end up needing to deal with a lot of EVs with charging ports in “wrong” locations. With that, additional use, and significantly more variables in play, we may see them struggle to properly maintain the chargers. I hope not, because we need to see more charger reliability, not less.
But, yeah, they could definitely pivot to batteries and charging. I don’t think they will with Musk as CEO, since those aren’t necessarily as visible, but his focus is all over the place, so I could see him deciding to step away from Tesla.
The EV market has crashed hard enough that almost anyone can find their way into a Tesla if they really want to.
When I can pick one up a gently used one for the price of a LEAF beater, well then maybe.
No Tesla (or most likely any vehicle) will ever outsell full-sized trucks in the US. Chevy may pass Ford someday, though I doubt it as long as GMC is counted separately.
-Trucks are part of the cultural fabric of life for a great number of people. For all the pooh-poohing this commentariat gives to truck owners who don’t meet their haughty standards for “needing” a truck, lots of people tow, haul, or work out of their trucks. And many others just like how they drive. This tendency IMO will only increase as vehicles become more politically polarized and traditional trucks become a refuge from the electrification of everything else.
-Tesla has some superfans too of course, but there are fewer than truck owners and the number seems to be getting smaller for as long as the CEO seems intent on lighting his legacy on fire with his liberal former base. It seems unlikely to me that his new conservative friends will pick up the slack by trading their diesel 2500s for Cybertrucks, let alone Model Ys.
-There are many more competitors on the horizon for basic electric CUVs and sedans than there are for fullsize trucks, where some like Nissan are actually leaving the market.
“Just like how they drive” – people can like never being able to see children in the street, can like being the tallest vehicle on the road so they can crush cars in collisions. No one is a fan of how “they drive” if they aren’t using it for working, hauling or towing. That’s literally the opposite of what they’re designed for.
Anyone not hauling a large family shouldn’t be allowed to own a minivan. Anyone not driving on a track shouldn’t be allowed to own a sports car. Anyone who keeps the top up shouldn’t be able to own a convertible. Anyone who doesn’t go off road shouldn’t be able to own a Jeep. After all, that’s what they were designed for.
-You, probably
Anyone not driving on a track shouldn’t be allowed to own a sports car.
So about that V10…
I dont quite think you grasped the point of my post.
Was there a point?
it really is a ridiculous double standard. Nevermind that a large portion of the posters are admittedly in big cities. Living in the sparsely populated regions and in the snowy northeast has a different set of requirements. Public transit is non-existent and commutes are long. Picking up wood to burn to keep the house warm, towing cars around, and just having a capable vehicle in the driveway is a necessity for many. People off the road in winter are usually pretty happy to see a full size truck pull up, too. If I lived in the city, I probably wouldnt feel the need to have a truck in the driveway, but many of us dont.
Trucks are part of the cultural fabric of life for a great number of people
Sure, as long as energy is cheap emissions are everyone else’s problem, parking spaces are wide and abundant and the blame for running over those unseen pedestrians is on the pedestrians.