The average car is now older than Drake’s first album, Nissan expands its certified pre-owned program to include other manufacturers’ cars, Lancia launches a comeback. All this and more in today’s issue of The Morning Dump.
Welcome to The Morning Dump, bite-sized stories corralled into a single article for your morning perusal. If your morning coffee’s working a little too well, pull up a throne and have a gander at the best of the rest of yesterday.
Our Cars Are Getting Old As Hell
Much to the surprise of absolutely nobody, the average age of a car in America has trickled slightly upward over last year’s figures. According to Automotive News, S&P Global Mobility released a report on Monday claiming that the average car in America is now 12.2 years old, an increase of just about 2 percent over last year. [Editor’s note: Is it just me or is Automotive News’ choice to use percent difference to compare ages a bit of an odd way to present these statistics? I’d probably have just done what Bloomberg did and said something like “up almost two months from last year’s figure.” -DT] What’s next? Is rain wet? Is In The Aeroplane Over the Sea a red flag? Do birds chirp?
In all seriousness, this jump may be minor, but it shouldn’t be surprising. New cars aren’t exactly plentiful right now and old tin isn’t being scrapped because newer stuff is properly expensive. Hey, when the average used car on CarGurus is listing for more than $30,000, fixing the shitbox you know and love often works out cheaper than a car payment. More importantly, we don’t really know when used car prices will drop. Take a look at the latest Manheim index report, it appears that we’ve officially entered the “lol, lmao” zone.
Was the Q1 contraction signaling an incoming jump in used car values? Are we embarking on a long and rocky descent? Who knows? Given a slow ramp-up of production and a reduction in leased vehicles to turn in, we’re likely looking at higher than pre-pandemic used car prices for a few more years. Speaking with Automotive News, automotive aftermarket practice lead for S&P Global Todd Campau said, “I think there’s definitely going to be upward pressure on average age through probably 2024, maybe even ‘25.” It looks like we’re in for a long, shitboxy start to the 2020s.
Nissan Will Soon Sell You A Certified Pre-Owned Non-Nissan
Speaking of used cars, dealers are getting more desperate than a pop-punk kid on prom night. We’ve already seen Honda slap a CPO stamp of approval on cars up to 10 years old, now it’s Nissan’s time to shine. This fall, the Japanese automaker is launching a certified pre-owned program for cars that aren’t Nissans. What, did you think that Big Altima Energy was truly sustainable?
Like Honda’s HondaTrue Used program, Nissan’s new CPO program for non-Nissans is a bit light. According to Automotive News, Nissan dealers will conduct an 84-point inspection, then slap a six-month, 6,000-mile warranty on anything that qualifies. I’m sure there’s some healthy profit baked in, but the peace of mind that comes with a properly-backed warranty is quite nice for some consumers. Ford’s been doing a similar thing with its Blue Certified program, where vehicles up to a decade old with fewer than 120,000 miles on the clock are spruced up and equipped with a 90-day, 4,000-mile warranty. However, this rush of diet CPO programs isn’t all good news. If this trend keeps up, it’ll certainly screw with the flow of older vehicles to independent dealerships. While the image of a dodgy used car dealer stepping out of a sagging S-Class is an ever-present stereotype, cheaper prices are cheaper prices, and a good pre-purchase inspection is likely a whole lot cheaper than a warranty.
Lancia’s Comeback Rises Into Focus
The past decade has been a rough one for Lancia. The sharp-looking third-generation Delta was discontinued in 2014 while the Musa, a badge-engineered Fiat Idea, was killed off in 2012. Aside from producing the long-in-the-tooth Ypsilon, the famed Italian brand was mostly used for peddling Chrysler wank. Anyone fancy a Chrysler 200 Convertible rebadged as a Lancia Flavia? I thought not. While it may have been tempting to let Lancia die a slow and painful death, Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares has other ideas.
Let’s start with distribution. According to a press release issued Friday, Lancia is planning for 50 percent of its European sales to be made online. Honestly, that’s a solid move. Low overhead, cut the pain of going to a dealership, easy financing up front. Job done. But what about product? It shouldn’t be a surprise that Lancia’s going electrified, with a three-vehicle approach that the company describes with surprising number of early official details. The first product, the new Ypsilon, will clock in at four meters (157.48 inches) long and arrive in 2024. Stellantis claims that all Ypsilon models will be electrified, although that could mean anything from all-electric powertrains to a 48-volt mild hybrid system. Next comes a 4.6-meter (181.1-inch) long flagship, a few inches shorter than a BMW 3-Series and a few inches longer than an Audi A3. Finally, a new Delta with what Lancia describes as “geometric lines” will arrive in 2028 sporting a length of 4.4 meters (173.2 inches). While I don’t have crazy expectations for Lancia, I’m really excited to see what the brand comes up with.
Hyundai Might Be Getting Rid Of The Sonata
It’s no secret that midsize sedans aren’t doing so well right now. Ford, Stellantis, Mazda, Buick, Volkswagen, and Lincoln have all either bowed out of the American midsize sedan segment or will bow out shortly. Potentially adding to that list? Hyundai. If a report from South Korean outlet Chosun Ilbo is to be believed, and take this with a grain of salt, there’s a chance that the end of the road for Hyundai’s midsize sedan may be in 2025.
Honestly, it would be a bit of a shame if the report turned out to be true. While the 2011 YF-generation Sonata was plagued with engine issues, it was a pivotal moment for Korean cars in America. Sure, the Hyundai Genesis was also huge, but the Sonata was attractive and desirable enough to worry Toyota. It marked the moment that Korean cars stopped being sensible and started being desirable, and consumers absolutely flocked. You could park a then-new Sonata in any upper-middle-class neighborhood in America and not look out of place. I know because my dad did just that. His 2013 Sonata fit in perfectly among the vast Cape Cod homes in Chesterfield, MO. While the latest Sonata’s styling is polarizing to say the least, the turbocharged N-Line model is a hilarious bit of one-wheel-peeling fun, a much more refined execution of the concept that spawned the Pontiac Grand Prix GTP. Let’s hope that the Sonata sticks around for another generation.
The Flush
Whelp, time to drop the lid on this edition of The Morning Dump. While it’s not exactly surprising that America’s vehicles are getting older, it’s an awesome opportunity to play a game. Take the ages of every vehicle in your fleet, add them all up, divide that number by the number of vehicles in your fleet, and let us know your fleet’s average age. Mine’s quite easy at 16 as I only own one car, but I’m sure some of you have an average fleet age multiple times of the average vehicle’s age of 12.2 years old.
Lead photo credit: “Car Dealership on Western Ave” by David Hilowitz is licensed under CC BY 2.0.
2002 Tahoe, 2014 Forester, and a 2000 Beetle, for a 16.7 year average.
But my girlfriend’s Forester is dragging down my average, without that pretty much all my other cars over the years have been in the 15-20 year age.
While average age of your fleet is interesting, we should probably normalize the data based on percentage of miles driven. Say you own four cars: one that is a year old, one that is 8 years old, one that is 12 years old and one that is 35 years old. The average age of your fleet would be 14 years( (1+8+12+35)/4=14). Now that’s normalize the data based on miles driven say 70% for the year old car, 15% for the eight year old car, 10% for the 12 year old car and 5% for the 35 year old car. Let’s do a weighted mean!
0.7 x 1 + 0.15 x 8 + 0.1 x 12 + 0.05 x 35 = .7+1.2+1.2+1.75=4.85
So that’s almost a 10 year difference between the arithmetic mean and the weighted mean! Who says you can’t learn anything from The Autopian?
I have a fleet of six daily (or at least weekly) driven vehicles ranging from a 2003 to a 2019. The mean is 11.5 years old while the weighed mean is 10.2 years old.
22.6 years. My ‘73 D100 and ‘08 Mustang were balanced by my wifes ‘17 Subaru.
Average age of my garage; 11 1/2 yrs; my motorcycle bringing that average down
Side note: Woke up from a nice Saturday nap to find Ford vs Ferrari on, and I quickly got sucked into watching it again. I know the bit about Leo Beebe was exaggerated to add drama, but find the famous Lee Iacocca to be interesting as I always tie him much more closely with his work at Chrysler, sometime forgetting about his impact at Ford.
While you’ve published some already; I would love to see a semi-regular Autopian biographical spin on some of automotive most and least well known contributors. Beyond Wikipedia in true Autopian fashion: fascinating fun facts, how is current design/engineering influenced by them, hypothetically what would have happened without them, what gained them respect, why people thought they were jerks, if they did. Anything from automotive designers and engineers to race car drivers, motorsport owners, and automotive inventors, much like the David Nutting article.
fun example: Couple weeks ago I was watching “stock” car goes round in circles, always turning left when they mentioned crash safety. While most all know about The King, Richard Petty’s racing accomplishments, I did not know that we is, in part, responsible for inventing the window net after a wreck he sustained at Talladega.
https://youtu.be/wlFLnFc79bI?t=35
“Is In The Aeroplane Over the Sea a red flag?”
Hey! I resemble that remark!
My own car was 16 years old before I sold it for scrap. Here in Ireland, insurers are playing hardball when it comes to anything over ten years old, with the fifteen year mark being a point where many won’t insure at all. So it’s a double whammy, as I sit without a car, waiting for stock to increase (which it is showing stuttering signs of doing) and for prices to decrease.
I’ve got a 2006, 2008, and 2013. So an average of 13 years old.
The 2006 is a toy with ~100k and is going to be around until it’s illegal to drive ICE cars. The 2013 is a family sedan with ~110k and will be in service for another decade at this rate (I work from home now).
However, the 2008 is an awesome but aging CX-9 with ~165k. It runs and drives better than it should for its age and mileage, but rust is consuming it both underneath and on the body after braving midwest winters and salt for so many years. Exhaust will be swiss cheese any day. I need to do the brakes. Tires are almost bald. Transmission is starting to hiccup a little bit at low RPM. I had planned to replace it by now, but there’s no way I can afford to do anything but a side-grade right now. I’ll just have to bite the bullet and put money into it to keep it limping along until the market stabilize it… if it ever does.
If I look at my family fleet of regularly driven vehicles it’s right around that average.
My cars: 2018 Ford Fiesta ST, 2007 Chevy Suburban
Wife’s car: 2005 Acura MDX
Daughter’s car: 2011 Honda Fit
That averages out to something like 12 years old and doesn’t include my 1988 Jaguar XJ6 which is more of a classic hobby car.
The next vehicle to get replaced out of all these is likely to be the MDX and I am absolutely dreading it.
2017 Volt
2014 Cruze Diesel
2007 Cobalt
1981 Camaro Z28
Average is 17.25 years
As they say, it’s not the age, it’s the mileage. And further to the point, it’s the maintenance, not the miles.
My fleet’s current median age is 40 years old… a ’69 and a few ’66’s tend to make that number drop, but even the newest car in my fleet, my wife’s car, is over 13 years old. My work beater is old enough to smoke, and my work truck is legally able to buy alcohol. With the soaring price of used cars, and the limited availability of new, it looks like there’s going to be a lot of wrenching in my future. You can buy a lot of parts for a $600 truck before it begins to look like a bad idea.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Lp1Jn87gWY4
Who is Applebee?
2022 Outback
2019 Civic Si
2005 Mini Cooper S Convertible
Average is just shy of 7 years. I counted the Outback as 0, since we haven’t had it a year yet.
Average age of my own personal 3 cars: 36 years, 8 months
If you add in my wife’s car (which is still almost 20 years old) it drops to 32 years, 4 months.
Add in our vintage trailer (which has a license plate, so tehnically could be considered a vehicle of sorts) and it’s 37 years.
The average age of my two car garage is 1.5 years old. I lucked out ordered both at the onset of the pandemic when dealers were uncertain about future sales & offering killer deals.
My fleet averages 37. My wife wants me to thin the herd, but just keep adding on garages to the house instead.
2020 = 2
2019 = 3
2016 = 6
2013 = 9
2000 = 22
1972 = 50
1970 = 52
Average: Just under the legal drinking age. Removing the project vehicles, the average is a much more respectable 8 years. Just sold a 2017 MY vehicle without replacement which raised the averages somewhat.
My Totota Pickup is 27 years old and looks it, but still runs great at over 230K miles.
My fleet average age is 10, which is kinda typical although it’s still a somewhat motley group:
2002 Jeep Liberty- winter warrior, hauler of mulch, too ugly to be stolen.
2011 C6 Grand Sport- Tremec-6060 and LS3 peak boomer awesomeness.
2022 Stelvio Veloce – The Italians make an SUV that cuts like Dalvin Cook.
The Ypsilon is already electrified, in an insane way. I had one as a rental car last year. 1.0L engine, 6 speed manual, diesel, hybrid. It’s a 5 hp BSG with a 0.13 kWh battery pack. It also has an analog voltage gauge on the dash and you can see it moving up and down as you drive.
Have not done the Certified used car deal, ever. And a dealers “inspection” means nothing to me. Around here the big thing with the dealers is the “forever warranty” offered by many used car dealers. Which is bullshit, and a scam…so I am not encouraged by this trend of Nissan, Honda, or the rest of them.
1962 Volvo
1986 Ford F150 (Cummins 4bt diesel powered)
2012 Nissan Frontier
2017 Subaru Forrester
Fleet average is about 28 years
Huh. My fleet average is 13.5, which is crazy because a few years ago I owned nothing over 5 years old. Now my newest is 7 and I’ve bought multiple double-digit age cars.
Interesting anecdote: I’ve had a few problems with my two daily drivers over the past year, all of which turned out to be electrical. I keep finding corroded and broken wires or pins. The good news is those problems are mostly easy to fix, the bad thing is that they’re a PITA to track down in the first place.
My fleet has a mean age of 46 years, a median age of 44 years, and a mode of 41 years. I’m a geologist, so instead of keeping track of all those fancy numbers I’d rather just describe them as Holocene.
So I am guessing that either your cars are 41, 41, 44, 45, and 59 years old or you have a lot of cars.
Eleven, from 39 to 63 years old. I should add that I reported the mean to the nearest whole year because, again, geologist.
My wife (and fellow geologist) would appreciate this comment if she actually read this site.
Not a geologist, and nor is my wife, which is why I’m having trouble explaining to her why a wikipedia page about geological epochs made me laugh out loud.
My fleet average is 8.5, but now one of them has a new engine and transmission it (Thanks for the free stuff Kia)