Toyota got it right. The future may be mostly electric, but the present is increasingly hybrid and Toyota is the hybrid brand for much of the world. This means Toyota is making money. A ton of money. So much money.
Years of work went into this moment, and Toyota was perfectly positioned to take advantage of the weird post-pandemic world we’re all trying to survive. But that’s not going to work forever. If you want things to stay the same (in this case, if you want to keep printing money) you’ve got to be willing to change. What’s Toyota’s next act going to be?
Wholesale used car prices are down a bunch as automakers have new cars to sell, which is nice. New cars! What a time to be alive.
This is weirdly kinda bad for some automakers as they experienced a period where they could charge silly money for cars coming off lease. BMW is one of those automakers and its financials were a little meh because of it.
And, finally, they’re all doing better than Rivian, who is losing $38k per car.
Toyota Made 5 Trillion Yen Last Year
Toyota, like many Japanese companies, is on a financial calendar that ends in the first quarter of the year. This means that Toyota’s fiscal year is over and the company can report how much it made. It made a lot. Specifically, the company made 5.35 trillion yen in profit, which is $34.5 billion.
According to NHK, that’s the most any public Japanese company has ever made in a year. The company’s fourth-quarter (January-March) performance saw Toyota’s operating profits up 78%, which certainly helped.
Why did this happen?
The obvious thing is that this is the “Year of the Hybrid” and Toyota is the hybrid company, with the most accessible and varied range of products. Sales are way up and a lot of those sales are hybrids. The slightly less obvious thing is that the yen is down a lot to the dollar, which is good for a massive producer and exporter like Toyota.
Toyota’s CEO Koji Sato got into this in his prepared remarks:
In the previous fiscal year, our diverse product lineup enabled us to provide our customers with many cars. We believe that this achievement is the result of years of determined product-centered management and the building up of our business foundation.
From the stylish new Prius to the attractive new Camry and Tacoma, all of Toyota’s cars are appealing at some level. They’re rightly priced and rightly sized for the market. That, plus some favorable currency, is all Toyota needed to make all that money.
Were a few corners cut? Maybe. To make an omelet you gotta break a few Daihatsu engineers, amirite?
[Ed Note: It’s also worth noting that Toyota is making all this money while cleaning up its tailpipe emissions more than any other manufacturer. From the EPA’s 2023 Automotive Trends Report:
Between model years 2017 and 2022, Toyota achieved the largest reduction in CO2 emissions, at 32 g/mi. Toyota decreased emissions across all vehicle types and decreased overall emissions even as their truck SUV share increased from 27% to 38%.”
Toyota took a lot of flak from pro-EV journalists for its slow, measured wading into the EV waters, but it’s clear the company got it right. -DT]
Toyota Thinks It’s Going To Make Less Money This Year
The best time to make changes in your business is not when things are going poorly, but when things are going well. With that in mind, Toyota doesn’t want to rest on its yen and instead wants to be ready for the future.
Many journalists were critical of Toyota’s slow pivot towards electric cars, which looked short-sighted as recently as last year. While Toyota is behind the curve for this generation of electric cars, it might be ready for the next round.
Of course, in Toyota’s view that’s electric cars, plug-ins, and hydrogen:
This fiscal year’s key themes in working toward that future are the “materialization of multipathway solutions” and the “creation of a foundation for software-defined vehicles, done in the Toyota way” that will realize diverse mobility values for our customers.
Over the past year, we have been advancing toward embracing battery EVs, which were our missing piece[…]
Regarding hydrogen, we have accelerated the creation of foundations for commercialization in various regions.
In addition to developing and implementing hydrogen mobility in the commercial domain, we are also providing fuel cell systems for various applications, such as trains, ships, and generators, and pursuing initiatives in producing and storing hydrogen.
Hybrids, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, software-defined vehicles, all of it. Oh, and e-fuels:
Furthermore, we will continue to work with determination on the future of the internal combustion engine. Even in a future in which energy centers on electricity and hydrogen, we plan to continue actively advancing next-generation engines, with an eye toward using e-fuel and other liquid fuels.
There’s a risk that by doing everything you’re doing nothing and, at the same time, you’re spending a lot of money.
From Reuters:
Toyota expects operating income to total 4.3 trillion yen in the year to March 2025, a 20% decline, as it invests in “human capital” – including providing support for labour costs at suppliers and dealers – as well as in its multi-pathway strategy.
“We’ll make investments in order to firmly protect the supply chain,” Toyota CEO Koji Sato told a press conference after the earnings release.
The silver lining for Toyota is that it has a lot of money to spend. When I was critical of GM for leaning into dividends instead of investment this is what I was talking about.
Wholesale Used Car Prices Down 14% Year-Over-Year
I like to look at this graphic from Cox Automotive/Manheim every month or so to see how close we’re getting back to any reality we used to know.
The impact of the pandemic and the resulting shortage of cars is pretty clear here as the Manheim Used Value Vehicle Index shows a sharp rise in 2020 and a slow retreat from the highs of 2022.
While this isn’t exactly a price, the index looks at average prices around a range of certain cars and adjusts by mileage/class, et cetera. This is as good as you can get to understanding the actual value of used cars at any moment.
Is it universal? It’s universal. From Cox Automotive:
The major market segments all experienced seasonally adjusted prices that were down year over year in April. Compared to April 2023, luxury was the only segment that lost less than the industry, down just 12.9%, and SUVs were down a little more than the market, falling by 14.6% year over year. The worst-performing segment was compact cars, down 17.6% against last year, followed by midsize cars, off by 16.8%, with pickups down 15.2%. Compared to last month, the pickup segment fell by just 1.3%, less than the market’s decline of 2.3% for the month. Compact cars fell the most against March, declining by 3.9%, luxury was down 3.2%, SUVs decreased by 3.1%, and midsize cars were down 3.0%.
This is good news if you’re a consumer, but BMW saw its revenue dip as it can’t just charge consumers basically the same price for an off-lease X5.
Rivian Lost A Lot Of Money
Whereas Lucid has Saudi Arabia to backstop its losses, Rivian has Daddy Amazon, but that money seems somehow less reliable.
Per Investor’s Business Daily:
Rivian announced a loss of $1.24 per share in the first quarter, down from a $1.25 loss a year ago, while revenue increased more than 80% to $1.204 billion. Analysts predicted a loss of $1.15 per share in Q1 with sales totaling $1.17 billion.
Meanwhile, Rivian ended Q1 with $7.858 billion in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. Rivian ended Q4 with around $9 billion in cash.
Rivian also lost $38,784 per vehicle delivered in Q1. The EV startup said Tuesday it “expects significant improvement in the material and conversion cost of its vehicles and remains confident in its path to achieving modest gross profit in the fourth quarter of this year
That’s a long climb, but you gotta start somewhere. Rivian didn’t talk about a potential tie-up with Apple, whatever that might be.
What I’m Listening To While Doing TMD
If the top of this post means anything to you then you were probably hoping to see a Cash Money song today. I’m from Houston so I’m neutral when it comes to Cash Money or No Limit and merely enjoy both, though if I had to choose… Master P has a solid gold tank and I’ve always wanted to drive it, which I suppose makes me a No Limit Soldier for life.
But let’s go Cash Money today. Here’s Baby’s excellent “What Happened To That Boy” featuring Clipse.
This album has a classic Pen & Pixel cover, which is to say it has a cover made by a graduate of The Parson School who somehow, with his brother, ended up creating the most over-the-top and brilliant rap album covers of all time. Here’s an entire article on the Birdman album cover, which was the last one Pen & Pixel made.
The Big Question
Is Toyota right to go all-in on everything, or should the company maybe chill it on hydrogen?
Top image credit: Toyota; aleciccotelli/stock.adobe.com
Toyota is a perfect of example of why you don’t listen to investors. I’m sure they were screaming at Toyota to jump on the EV bandwagon and a weaker (or short-sighted) company would’ve caved to pressure.
I’d love to have a solar powered hydrogen refueling setup at my house. I’d also love a proper Toyota sports car similar to a Miata, manual transmission only please. Since they have some billions to invest, perhaps they can help me out.
You might be getting your Toyota Miata! I am curious how this will slot beneath the 86 but if anyone can do it, Toyota can.
I saw that and I’m horny for it, especially if the low 20s starting price actually happens.
You better not be living in the southwest or you’ll be paying more for the water to make the hydrogen than you would for gas.
Why? You’d lose 2/3 of the energy (assuming a somewhat lower efficency for commercial grade H2 production setup) powering a FCV over a BEV for no real benefit.
If its a hydrogen ICE car you want now you’re looking to lose 3/4 or more of that solar power.
We have a BEV and it’s had the battery replaced under warranty already. The next time it dies the car is a brick. I was thinking that with with hydrogen ICE it would not pollute and has repairability and value over the long run. Not to mention manual transmission and fun noise without the pollution. BEV are boring, soulless appliances.
If you’re OK with a max radius of <100 miles and being permanently tethered to your own hydrolyzer (because where are you going to buy hydrogen on the road?) then by all means go for it.
ICE engines are less efficient than FCs, about half as much or even less assuming you want a sports car Otto cycle ICE, not an efficiency tuned Adkinson cycle ICE and want to drive it like a sports car not a hypermiler. So something like a Mirai with 35 internal gallons of tank volume will get at best 200 miles per fillup. If you are OK with an Adkinson engine I guesstimate your range will be about 253 miles per 35 gallons of 10k psi H2. Probably a lot less at the track.
There is also the matter of the tanks. 35 gallons is a large volume and they have to be cylindrical. That makes packaging difficult. For anything smaller than a Mirai you’re going to need smaller tank volumes which means less range.
The news gets worse! To get even that limited range you need a 10k PSI compressor. Those aren’t cheap:
https://pureenergycentre.com/hydrogen-products-pure-energy-centre/hydrogen-compressor/
Granted those are commercial grade but when it comes to very high pressure hydrogen I don’t think you’ll want an Alibaba/Ebay special.
Sure Toyota might be able to bring the cost down with scale of economics but unlikely enough to make it worth your while over gasoline or BEV.
I love the depth of knowledge here on this site. I didn’t know that much about hydrogen. My BEV only gets 92 miles of range in warm weather, so I was ok with a local vehicle. Compressor failure with high pressure hydrogen would be very bad indeed, and I’m pretty sure homeowners insurance wouldn’t cover you. Thanks for the reality check. Seems like alternative fuels aren’t there yet.
Correct me if I am wrong, I am sure I can trust you to do that. But while every car company has had its ups and downs as far as I can remember Toyota is the only company whose downs were the result of issues outside of cars and their control. No building and selling crap that sucks. The big 3. No poor quality materials, everything English. No cheating on tests and getting fined Volkswagen, yes they did it but they could afford it. No reliably issues, all recent in the 2000s German crap. Ugly design Volvo Saab, small market small profits.
Toyota has had their issues like the oil sludge in the early 2ks and the recent Daihatsu scandal.
But, those seem to be more isolated issues and the rest of the company’s goodwill seemed to make up for it.
I would agree that historically when Toyota is down it’s often due to external forces and not due to poor products, lack of strategic thinking, etc.
Yeah for me!!!
Counterpoint: Toyota has coasted for decades on their reputation for reliability alone. During that time, they have largely churned out unremarkable cars & trucks that don’t do anything better than any competitor (except for fuel economy in some categories), and in many categories such as interior quality, refinement, handling, and NVH, they are markedly worse.
The article is dead-on about their single best decision: Hybrids. But the frenzy over hybrids is a recent phenomenon, and up until this point it was solely Toyota’s reputation for reliability that was carrying a lot of water for them in terms of sales and market position.
(I specify reputation for reliability because cars today are generally reliable, such that the difference between the top 5 makes on the chart is statistically insignificant. And the statistical difference between the top and the bottom of the chart is vastly smaller than it ever has been before.)
lol ok to all of this….”coasting”
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What’s Toyota’s next act going to be?
Toyota as the ultimate legacy carmaker with rock solid brand loyalty and a (mostly) conservative mindset can do what it wants. As soon as Toyota senses the delta of EV demand among late adopters and manufacturing cost reductions, it will reveal its advanced skateboard platform, roll out its electric Corolla, Camry, and RAV4 and keep printing money.Toyota barely acknowledges its Bz4x exists and why not? It’s a barely competitive EV, but when you look at it another way, the Bz4x is perhaps the world’s best compliance car.
It seems like they design and research but don’t build until it’s time.
I really can’t agree with this enough… Toyota doesn’t do something on a whim, they also don’t release a product that’s “good enough”.
I’ll admit to being a Toyota fanboy, but there’s a reason (outside the rust belt) seeing a 20-25 year-old Toyota is totally unremarkable.
Toyotas approach is very on brand for Toyota isn’t it? Nothing in their lineup is offering earth shattering tech or blowing the competition out of the water with performance (unless you count fuel economy). The new Camry, Tacoma, 4Runner will be incrementally better than the models they replace. The still sort of new Prius was a pretty big leap for the Prius brand, but not for cars in general.
Coming out with some cutting edge EV would have been out of character for Toyota, even if it was the right answer for the market.
Now, if everyone else could leave the hybrids alone for a minute so I can buy one, I’d appreciate it.
Hydrogen is not the answer for cars for multiple reasons. Infrastructure is a big one, if you think the infrastructure for EVs is inadequate and slow to roll out hydrogen is on another level. In addition to filling stations being non existant it is hard to store. The small hydrogen atoms like to leak through basically any container you put them in. The other problem is it has to be produced, which is energy intensive and and will always result in a loss of efficiency, I don’t know what the exact losses are for hydrogen production but I do know that transfer to battery storage is pretty efficient. Then once it is produced will take energy to compress to get it anywhere close to a usable energy density. The only real problems it solves over batteries is refill time and it is lighter, but this requires huge logistical hurdles and accepting inefficiencies. I could possibly see it as a potential for ships where they have plenty of space or on planes where the weight of batteries makes them impractical but for passenger cars I don’t see hydrogen making any sense.
How about cars where there is no mass electricity grid? Say the Arctic and Antarctica?
Possibly, but even then I’m not seeing the advantage over using wind/solar to charge an ev.
Oh God can you imagine the charging time of an EV using the occasional wind gust and solar? Land of the midnight sun, excellent, land of the 6 month night, not so great. My comment was for propane in areas unreachable for long periods. Bring in huge tanks and use them when you are unreachable. Not sure how you got wind and solar?
I guess I don’t understand the question, it’s an area that is remote enough to not have electricity and you’re proposing to instead have large hydrogen storage/generation? Seems like an exceedingly narrow use case.
It might be my presentation sorry. But in remote areas there are established villages. It might be a remote Inuit village, or a business concern like oil drilling. It doesn’t have an electric plant or grid. Just electric generators. It also doesn’t have road access 52 weeks a year, think ICE Road Truckers. So using electricity generated by gasoline generators is okay but depending on fuel might not last until the next delivery. But a generator that runs on propane or hydrogen you could set up bring in tanker trucks by the dozens and run generators to run vehicles and leave the electric generators to heat and light the buildings.
This makes no sense. How would trucked in propane or hydrogen be any better than gasoline or diesel? It’s be way worse!
IMO NG is much more viable. There is plenty of methane in the tundra and under the ice and it can be made from pretty much anything on site including septic waste and garbage.
Wind and wave energy don’t really stop much. Install large energy storage to smooth out supply, either as batteries or pressure tanks, and you’re set.
Nuclear works better there.
“The small hydrogen atoms like to leak through basically any container you put them in.”
Try googling “metal hydride hydrogen storage tank”. Hydrogen gas can not leak out if it is stored in a solid state. Solid state also does not require such high pressures.
I’m aware that hydrides exist but has anyone attempted to use them in a production vehicle? If I recall correctly most (all?) hydrogen vehicles use compressed hydrogen. Not sure what the reasoning is since compressed storage has the aforementioned issues.
The problem with hydrides is that metal particles in a tank are heavy. Current hydrogen forklifts have metal hydride tanks, but no one really cares if a forklift tank weighs a few extra 100 pounds. Stationary tanks at a hydrogen refueling station or for backup power also can be very heavy. To make a solid state tank for a passenger car is going to require weight to be cut. Government funding through HyMARC is developing metal-organic frameworks for better storage density. The idea is to replace most of the metal with carbon so that the metal is on the outside of the particle.
If you’re talking about zeolites IIRC the main problem with those is they can only be used a handful of times.
While still in the lab bench phase, there is one product out there ‘power paste’ that is essentially Magnesium hydride and silly puddy. You mix it with water and get a stupid amount of H2 gas out of it. The sludge can be collected and recharged at a central facility.
It seemed like a way better solution than storing the H2 gas itself.
Maybe. It takes 350C and 5-6 ATM to form so then its a question of whether its energy efficient as well.
It’s also a question of what they mean by 10x more energy dense than batteries, 10x by weight or by volume? By weight is far less advantageous than by volume. And does that include the water? If not, well that’s a problem too.
All good points. Hopefully they’ll sort it because I like the idea more than tanks in the 1000s of PSIs filled with an explosive leaky gas.
So better container problem solved. So no brainer with such an easy ssolution to me? Or are you now going to raise a new issue? Seems if you do not looking for answers wanting your solution. Just saying if the container is the only problem it is an Ez solution.
See the reply I just made above. Weight is still a problem in certain situations, but this is an engineering problem where progress is being made.
My bad in my scenario everyone is isolated. I propose bringing in huge semi sized better tanks and hold them until isolated then pump them in the more porous temporary vehicle tanks. Think frozen tundra so slower molecules even buried in the permafrost. The leaking from the vehicle tanks are not an issue.
That scenario is viable today with current technology. GNK Hydrogen can sell you a semi trailer sized tank today that will not leak.
So it works in a given situation? And given all the isolated areas are rich companies or poor communities protected by governments it might just be a lucrative investment?
Yes for isolated areas and off grid storage the current weight of metal hydride tanks is perfectly acceptable.
Great considering these are businesses willing to spend millions. It is a small lucrative market. Certainly not a general market in most areas.
Personally I prefer a SMR:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_modular_reactor
Or a nuclear barge:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_floating_nuclear_power_station
Hmm. Year of the Hybrid.
I seem to recall a small group on this site adamant about hybrids. What did they call us? Oh yeah the stupid idiots that didn’t realize EVs were the answer. Also shade thrown at Toyota and the old CEO for not getting it.
Rivian is losing $38K per car? I wonder what owners of Rivian vehicles are losing.
The price of used cars is coming down? Damn and I was forced to buy a Camry for $2,300. God I’m really going to take a bath on the trade in on that in 5 years.
Is Toyota right? I day read your column for the answer to that question. Maybe Toyota is the answer instead of Miata?
What about a Toyota Miata?
Well that would be a Tiata. Probably good sales in the South America market for cars driven by people who are Aunts?
a whole lotta Muskites super mad about all this
Japan was the first country to set out a strategy for hydrogen as a future fuel in 2017 and there have been multiple projects to create end to end supply chains of brown hydrogen (from Australian brown coal then liquified and shipped to Japan) and green hydrogen. Progress has been slow and it’s left Japan behind on developing other low or zero carbon energy sources but the Japanese commitment to hydrogen sets Toyota’s activities in context.
I’d say the bazillion yen profits sets Toyotas activities in context. Why build the car for 2035 in 2025? I can’t think of one future car that didn’t falter. Build a car a little bit better every year. It costs less, doesn’t require a real psychic, and it doesn’t turn off the older market that buys most of the cars.
I think Toyota is right to continue pursuing hydrogen. They have the resources like you said and even though hydrogen cars don’t make sense today, I’m left wondering where they would be if they had the same subsidies enjoyed by EVs in China especially.
EVs also weren’t ready not that long ago (imo they still aren’t but they work for many more people now), and tons of government cash got them there. Honda recently touted huge gains in efficiency among other things in their next-gen fuel cells. This tells me there’s still lots of meat on the bone for development.
Perhaps it doesn’t end up working but I find fuel cells interesting and I think they should enjoy more government support than they currently do. Critically, they seem to offer similar experiences as people are used to with gas stations. And who doesn’t love the water pee-pee thing at stoplights?
The technology itself works well enough, its the fuel that’s the problem. Electric cars can be “fueled” wherever there’s electricity (which, the United States topped 90% of rural households having electricity back in 1945, so the country as a whole is effectively 100% electrified now, or close enough to it to not matter. Only people without electricity by this point are mostly those with religious objections, and they’re also not buying cars of any sort).
Hydrogen, on the other hand, uses more input energy to produce than can be extracted out of it, has to be kept extremely cold in storage and transit, and also will still gradually convert back to a gas and evaporate, those hydrogen fueled 7-Series would empty their tanks just sitting in airport parking garages. It requires a lot of new infrastructure to produce, transport, and dispense, electric cars, in comparison, are just wire up a charger in a place that already has electric service (oversimplified a bit, but more or less)
The vast majority of hydrogen used in the US currently is produced via steam methane reforming, which is a chemical reaction involving heating up natural gas and mixing it with superheated steam. In which case, I mean, if you’re going to do that, you almost might as well just retrofit ICE cars to burn the natural gas, you’re turning one perfectly good fuel into a less good fuel, and wasting energy in the process.
Steam methane reforming is cheap at an oil refinery because they already have steam, or waste heat that can be used to produce steam. Nobody is investing money into that process anymore. The large investments are going to building plants using partial oxidation. Much easier to capture the carbon.
Yeah I mean I’m well aware of the current limitations of the tech. It’s not viable as it currently stands. However the bits of that that are inherent vs a technological hurdle that can be overcome isn’t clear to me.
There’s also quite a bit of “you shouldn’t even talk about this” from the BEV or nothing set and it’s hard to discern good faith from bad when the topic of hydrogen comes up. I’m not saying that’s you it’s just a hurdle in these discussions
There has been some interesting news today about underground hydrogen deposits and how they may be more common than expected. I saw it on Apple News so I don’t have a link, but I’m sure people can find it if they want.
Ah yes I’ve seen this described as “gold hydrogen”. I’ll have to find the article.
I looked into this a few months ago. Even the wildly optimistic estimates of global reserves only yielded enough energy to run the world for a few days to a week. So I wouldn’t put much hope into that.
Yeah that’s what I’d been reading, too, until literally this week.
Besides, hydrogen doesn’t have to power everything, just things that are difficult or impossible to electrify anytime soon.
If those deposits pan out that would certainly be a game changer. I wouldn’t hold my breath though and I certainly wouldn’t buy a hydrogen car assuming cheap, infinitely available hydrogen was on the way.
Hydrogen for passenger vehicles still seems like a waste of resources to me, at least until we get better at efficiently creating and storing the hydrogen. I see it as a better possibility for ships than cars at this point, but I don’t know enough about ships to know if it’s viable for them.
If they really have the viable solid state batteries they’ve talked about, those are probably the better development route. They’re still behind on EVs, but could leap ahead of everyone if their solid state batteries are as good as they claim and can be produced at scale. If so, they’ll be poised to not only capture market share, but increase the size of the EV market. They could make EVs more broadly palatable.
With Toyota’s resources, though, they can invest in every potential path forward and pivot as needed. If they want to invest in fusion-powered vehicle research, it’s not going to hurt them. Toyota has gotten where it is by hedging its bets and being in position to get into a lot of market segments.
Wesley Snipes says always bet on Toyota, probably.
Just imagine how much money Toyota could make if you could actually walk into one of their dealerships and buy a Prius (Regular or extra crispy Prime). Memphis isn’t a car Mecca, so I have only seen one 5th gen Prius so far.
That is probably the only thing keeping my garage from having two relatively new Toyota hybrids in it.
Instead, I can’t even find a Grand Highlander hybrid to test drive, let alone buy.
And their dealers know people want their products and act accordingly, which means the usually shitty car buying experience is even worse. Hell, it makes me not want to buy a Toyota, but then I look around there are zero alternatives to give me a large AWD SUV that gets 35 mpg.
Hydrogen. Not in passenger vehicles, full stop. Big stuff the average consumer does not play with, fine. I am completely OVER pumping flammable, explosive liquids into a tank in my car. Please, let’s leave that risk to centralized locations where heavy regulations control the risk. (NO, I have never seen a gas pump blow up, I know it’s “safe” to use gasoline).
Matt, I’ve been meaning to ask you and the staff. Now, I know this is a boring subject, but it’s one that basically gets ZERO coverage… The Chevy Malibu. It’s pretty much the only “normal” American designed car sold. It’s the last Chevy car. Yet, I never hear anything about them. Are they good? Are they reliable? I can’t say I’ve even seen a picture of on interior of one. Obvious answer is obvious, but could we get more coverage of this vehicle on the Autopian?? Maybe a short review (cause you can only read so much of a long, boring (sorry) review of the Chevy Malibu before falling asleep. I’m one of those people who will never own an SUV without prying the sedan from my cold dead hands, so I feel a bit left out. Please and thank you.
The Malibu has been basically unchanged since 2016, so I’m not surprised it hasn’t been in the news much.
Had a Malibu as a rental few weeks ago. I liked the exterior design but am more ambivalent on the interior. It did what I needed it to, handling and ride were fine. I would say the fuel economy was good, not great.
Malibu is merely fine. I don’t know how heavy it is, but it really didn’t want to zip. I didn’t have it long enough to grow accustomed to or find the right settings to deactivate the things that annoyed me. I had it long enough to know I don’t want one. I’m not tall but I bumped my head getting in.
It’s the Meh-libu.
Malibu? More like Maliboring!
I am breaking my “no more comments” rule to tell you that a friend of mine has one that he got for a song because it was sitting on the dealer lot for so long. He hasn’t had many complaints about it so far. I personally don’t like it because it’s too close to the geriatric-esque Buick styling, but beauty is in the eye of the key holder. From what they have in the engine bay (at least on his), it makes for a great sleeper.
Thanks for breaking your silence!
Had a Malibu rental for a couple of weeks last year. It was shockingly decent. Would I probably spring for a Camry or an Accord all things equal? Yeah. But if a deal presents itself, it’s about 95% of what those cars offer.
The materials weren’t as bad as typical GM products, the ride and handling were solid, the large sunroof was really nice to have for a low to mid spec car. The infotainment worked really well, though I will say the Leapfrogesque tablet on the dash is one of the ugliest integrations of a screen I’ve seen. It was quick enough, but won’t blow anyone’s socks off. Overall the exterior looks fine.
I think one of the reasons nobody covers it is because Chevy announced it’s demise a while back, but then never really pulled the trigger. Seems like it’s mostly for fleet sales now.
The Malibu … exists. It launched at the end of 2015 and was mildly refreshed in 2019. The only engine option after the refresh is the 1.5T LFV, which makes an uncompetitive 163hp, while the transmission was changed to a (likely cheaper) CVT. The refresh was mostly a minor exterior styling refresh, while the interior remained the same other than dropping in the latest infotainment at the time.
It likely exists for cheap fleet sales and as the only American sedan left for government vehicles. It was supposed to be discontinued a while back but last year it sold 130k units, which is only about 35% down from its peak.
The current Malibu got good reviews when it debuted – if I remember correctly, the consensus at launch was that it wasn’t an enthusiast’s choice like a Mazda 6 or Accord, but it was competitive and it placed second in a four-car Car and Driver comparison in 2016. They also liked the hybrid and even the CVT introduced in 2019, but its ranking among sedans dropped quickly after 2019 as others were updated. They did give it an Editor’s Choice in 2017 and 2018 (and presumably in 2016 as well, but their historical overview stops in 2017.)
And, coincidentally, today GM announced they’re ending Malibu production later this year, which I was surprised to find they hadn’t done a couple of years ago when I started looking for another car last year.
UGH, that sucks. Then there was the Corvette….
Thanks everyone for the responses!!!!
I learned a long time ago, even when I was aghast at the atrocious cars they were selling, to never bet against Toyota in anything they do. Let them research into everyway they want to improve. Apparently they can afford it easily enough.
As for what you wrote about what you are listening to, My head hurt trying to understand anything you wrote. Dafuq you talking bout Willis?
And my next car will 90% surely be a Hybrid Toyota.
Literally everyone outside of a small and incredibly vocal/terminally online bunch of pissbabies knew Toyota was right from the start. EVs need more time in the oven. They have a niche now and they’ll continue to see their market share increase over the next decade as some of the fine tuning they need is done (infrastructure, massive weight reduction, better range, etc).
Hybrids work literally everywhere where you can get gas and they still significantly reduce emissions. There’s some evidence that suggests they’re currently better for the environment than BEVs right now anyway, but that’s definitely up for debate. It’s a damn shame that so many automakers more or less abandoned them. It shouldn’t have taken until 2024 for them to start showing up as default option in appliance cars. That should’ve happened a decade ago.
With the well sorted hybrid systems like Honda and Toyota’s there are literally no downsides. Their hybrids are faster, more efficient, quieter, smoother, emit less, and as reliable. There’s a reason they can’t keep them on lots, and we may have to get on a wait list sooner rather than later to get my wife the hybrid Highlander we want.
I can’t wait for Toyota’s Special Hydrogen Innovation Truck.
Will there be a TRD version?
That’s going to be the ONLY version.
beat me to it, kudos
Nothing better than a SHIT TRD
My sources tell me they’re going to sit on that one for awhile, but drop it out eventually. Expect a big splashy event when it’s finally released.
Expect a big splashy event when it’s finally released.
Part of your Morning Dump
Should we be expecting a retraction of all the preachy Morning Dumps from the previous writer who questioned Toyota’s strategy at every opportunity?
To be fair, the writer wasn’t the only one…
I went back and read a few of those TMDs and, generally, I think PG was pretty guarded in a lot of his assessments.
Dude, all respect to PG, but your TMD’s have been beyond excellent. Reading them is one of the few things I look forward to at work. Thanks for kicking so much ass.
Seconded
Hah, thanks! I’ll take it.
“Got the future all wrong”
“Seemed increasingly on the wrong side of history”
https://www.theautopian.com/akio-toyoda-was-the-enthusiasts-ceo-but-he-may-have-gotten-the-future-all-wrong/
“Behind the curve”
https://www.theautopian.com/toyotas-new-ceo-gets-serious-on-evs-announces-10-new-models-in-three-years/
Ultimately, it’s water under the bridge. He’s no longer here. The coverage is more fair and balanced now, which I appreciate. I don’t seriously expect a retraction, it’s just a humorous juxtaposition from a year ago.
While one could debate whether the pivot to EVs will come as soon as expected, I think it’s important to get the full context:
“Toyota has been accused by many (including this author) of being behind the curve on EVs. The company’s argument is that reducing carbon emissions will require many diverse powertrain solutions like hybrids and hydrogen, especially in developing markets where Toyota operates globally. All of that is true.” – This is accurate. The BZ4X is not a competitive offering in the segment, and the next few sentences are criticizing the hydrogen push, not hybrids.
“But Sato’s not announcing some all-EV pivot. This seems like a more realistic and modern evolution of what Toyoda was arguing, with a mix of powertrains and a specialized use for H2:” – This sentence, in fact, seems pretty specifically for a diverse lineup. It’s also one of few times I’ve seen Toyota’s hydrogen investment presented in a positive line.
“But as time goes on, Toyoda has seemed increasingly on the wrong side of history in the crucial area of battery electric vehicles. In the post-Akio era of Toyota, the company’s being forced to race faster than any Supra GT4 to catch up to its countless rivals in the EV space.” – Arguable. I’ll give you this one, but I would read this as specific to the EV race, given the rest of the sentence and the sentence after. It’s a growing market segment that they’ve dabbled in, but they haven’t yet brought anything competitive to market. You can read it as insistence on full pivot to EV or you can read it as a criticism of bringing out an EV that didn’t really meet any consumer expectations. It’s better than the Mazda MX-30, but no one has taken that one as anything more than a compliance car.
Was PG enthusiastic about an EV future? Sure. But I don’t read these as overly critical of Toyota selling a lot of hybrids.
I think you make some fair points, but let those of us who were consistently pushing back against the gloomy narrative and arguing for patience and diverse product offerings in the comments sections of these MDs have our vindication, at least for today.
IMHO a successful business is more successful if it doesn’t broadcast its strategy to the world and by extension its competitors. It wasn’t the staff of Autopian that incorrectly predicted EVs popularity it was the Rabid EV fans that post comments on articles despite not having a credible knowledge of cars and who attacked anyone who suggested otherwise. But they do and will continue to do so. It’s like sportswriters who predict the draftees and who miss 99.5% of the time but next year they do it again and don’t get called on it.
I’m still questioning their comittment to hydrogen.
While I don’t think it’s necessarily a viable option for cars, I also don’t think it’s a good idea to bet against Toyota. They might be researching it to be perfectly positioned IF the world goes that direction. They might be researching it for shipping or remote energy production. It may even just come to the Japanese government’s commitment to development of hydrogen energy…
If the world were to go that direction that’s a clear an indication that everything else has failed and its time to get comfortable with a greatly reduced standard of living.
I don’t think it will come to that, there are plenty of other sources of renewable energy. I think Hydrogen will have a place, but not the primary source. I’ll admit, my first comment didn’t really say that.
Sidebar: the thing a lot of people (not necessarily you) continually fail to grasp or accept is that truly replacing hydrocarbon-based energy will not be a one-size-fits-all solution, it will be a variety of solutions that best fit each need. Even if Hydrogen is only a fairly small part of that, being the leader in the field will still be wildly profitable.
Pending major – and I mean MAJOR – game changing breakthroughs I don’t see it having much more than a niche role in heavy trucking and even that is only if renewable natural gas is banned by law. Hydrogen just has too many shortcomings to ignore.
On that note it’s worth noting that many of the tech advances that hydrogen has seen in the past few decades also apply to CNG. Bloom energy makes stationary industrial scale NGFC with efficiencies comparable to HFCs. Whether those can be made for mobile applications I don’t know for sure but I don’t see why it wouldn’t be feasible to do so.
Carbon composite tanks should be able to hold CNG at 10k psi just as well if not better. NG is easier to make than hydrogen; nature has been doing it for billions of years. There are VAST natural reserves of it all over the planet ( including around Japan) and it’s easy to make renewably from just about any biological matter. In fact you’re better off burning that CH4 into CO2 directly than allowing it to be released or than making it into H2 as an intermediate unless you actually capture and sequester that carbon which again pending major, game changing breakthroughs is too cost prohibitive to do.
If I could stomach the cost of a new car, a Prius Prime would have been my choice. Handsome, decent power, decent EV range. Instead I went with a used 2nd gen Volt.
It’s on my short list too.
I’d like the Prius Prime power train in a Corolla Hatch. I’m just more partial to a proper hatch than a liftback.
I think toyota is on the right track with their hybrids, but they should also offer mores evs at the same time.
Also, I know multiple older women who would have a heart attack if they heard those lyrics.
The hydrogen tanks that come in hydrogen powered cars are not long lasting nor are they cheap, they’ll wear out as soon if not sooner than batteries in regular BEVs.
Toyota should stick to hybrids and PHEVs. It already cannot meet demand for its PHEVs, and Toyota seriously needs to either learn how to scale up it’s e-CVTs for it’s Pickups and SUVs so their hybrid models actually get much better MPG, reliability, durability.
If I was in charge of Toyota USA I’d ditch all the non e-CVT hybrids, every near future hybrid will have an e-CVT, maximize PHEV production, and work on making a Ford Maverick competitor (preferably BOF made in the USA with multiple body and bed options.)
Toyota didn’t exactly fully bake its first mainstream EV either, as last month’s lease deals ($0 down and $189/month for a 2023 or $219 for a 2024 base XLE front-drive for 36 months with 10,000 or 10,500 miles +forgot which) per year in my state, which has no additional state incentives) show. I would have hit the nearest dealer with one for that if I wouldn’t have had to lie about employment on the lease application. It may have been renewed for May for all I know, too, and with little difference in acceleration and slightly faster charging, the FWD is the better buy of the two anyway.
The hydrogen tanks that come in hydrogen powered cars are not long lasting nor are they cheap, they’ll wear out as soon if not sooner than batteries in regular BEVs.
Do you have any data on this? I’ve looked but all I find is a vauge recommended replacement at 10 years. I’ve found no word on actual production costs either.
10 years is what I got too. I imagine production costs are like BEV batteries in the sense that they’re cheap when they’re in current production, and much more expensive once they are out of production.
I don’t think that means the tank is trashed at 10 years, merely checked and perhaps recertified. The tech is so new I don’t think anyone has a true handle on the actual lifetime of these tanks. Or it might be downgraded out of an abundance of caution from 10k psi to say 5k psi and sold cheap That’s probably fine for generators, forklifts and such.
I am curious about cost. I don’t think Toyota has made enough tanks to benefit from scale but I’d think costs are dropping somewhat.
The issue with hydrogen tanks compared propane or CNG tanks is that hydrogen embrittles metal tanks, and composite tanks have very limited lifespans compared to metal ones.
These aren’t metal tanks though. They are carbon fiber resin.
composite tanks have very limited lifespans compared to metal ones.
Not so:
(emphasis mine)
https://www.nproxx.com/capabilities/type-4-pressure-vessels/
Or maybe longer:
https://risk.asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/PVP/proceedings-abstract/PVP2021/85321/V002T03A034/1122013
The latter, yeah, I’ll believe it when I see it too but the possibility is there.
News to me, though I imagine the lifespan would decrease with automotive use, which isn’t particularly easy on components.
Already accounted for:
We create pressure vessels for use in both stationary and mobile applications, covering:
With no specific examples, which is fishy imho.
Cummings is one:
https://www.cummins.com/news/releases/2020/06/23/cummins-form-joint-venture-nproxx-hydrogen-storage
They are also a shareholder.
This company has been making type 4 pressure vessels since 2001 so they should have some idea of what they are doing by now.
Interesting. On a slightly related note I’ve still yet to get a good answer on where diesel hydrogen conversions get the lubrication that was previously provided via the diesel fuel.
I would expect pilot ignition diesel engines which use a tiny charge of compressed, vaporized diesel to ignite a charge of NG and air would have similar lubrication concerns. If so I think the solution would be oil jets spraying the underside of the cylinders as is common in many gasoline engines.
Everyone said they were total idiots to focus on Hybrid and slow roll in to EVs. That played out well in their favor. Therefore, I’m willing to assume they know some stuff I don’t about hydrogen. While I don’t think there is ever going to be a regular consumer market for it, I do think that long haul trucking, oceanic shipping, and other large transportation formats might become a viable market for it. And if Toyota is the only one producing those systems, they might just dominate another portion of the “powered by fuel” markets.
I think propane like gasoline is a great answer for the right market. I swear so many people drone on about a segment based on their own situation. Think about Alaska. Anyone watch ICE Road Truckers? Think about all the equipment they use in areas that are impossible to access half the year and other similar sites. Like gasoline you can transport it anywhere, store it almost forever, and when you need it and you are cutoff you have it stored in huge tanks. I would suggest a hybrid Propane/alternative due to the costs. But if you ate mining diamonds in Siberia you don’t argue the cost of getting access, however you will never use a propane car to deliver pizza. Also if a valid propane option is discovered it can be altered to fit any situation where it will work. So boats but not cars. So what the idea comes first.
Here’s what you’re missing: coal is dirt cheap, as well as environmentally horrible, but the Japanese want to turn Australian coal into a gasoline substitute for cars: hydrogen.
Theoretically, hydrogen should be a carbon-source neutral fuel, but in practice, it’s literally converting one fossil fuel into a less efficient fuel, for the sake of burning it in a car.
(Hydrogen in the US is made by processing natural gas, which again, is just adding another layer of inefficiency to using fossil fuels.)
I didn’t try to argue it was greener than anything else. I stated I think they have potential to make a truly functional technology. So your counterpoint is to one side of my statement. While not currently green, hydrogen is currently seeing billions of dollars across the globe currently invested in hydrolysis production tech for hydrogen, using water and green electricity. Cost parity with coal hydrogen is predicted to occur in 2030. If it came to be a viably functional tech in heavy shipping or aviation, we could expect to see the tech double down on investments, as we are seeing in basic green energy production and EV infrastructure now. The fact that hydrogen is currently dirty and expensive can be overcome, but if no one is producing tech that uses it much, then investments will die off again. Much like how everyone felt about EVs in 2010.
I stated I think they have potential to make a truly functional technology.
At 40% round trip efficiency compared to 90%+ for BEVs you’d need over twice the renewable energy to power a hydrogen fleet vs a BEV one. Given the magnitude of the energy needs of transportation that’s a VERY big ask!
“While not currently green, hydrogen is currently seeing billions of dollars across the globe currently invested in hydrolysis production tech for hydrogen, using water and green electricity.”
I suggest you look up for yourself the amount of green energy currently produced; that is all the solar, all the wind, all the hydro, all the nuclear and all the miscellaneous keeping in mind just about all the green energy produced today is used to meet non transport demand.
Then look up how much more green energy on top of that will be needed to completely replace fossil fuels. It doesn’t make much sense to shift from gasoline hybrid to BEV if that BEV is powered by coal.
Then look up the energy demands for all the world’s transport; all its cars, trucks, planes rockets and ships including the needs of the world’s military forces, especially the US.
Then factor in you will need over twice that number from green energy to make enough hydrogen to meet that demand.
If that doesn’t open your eyes nothing will.
Never heard of Pen & Pixel, Cash Money is way out for me. Thanks Matt!
Toyota makes the best cars and actually thinks beyond the next quarter 🙂
I really want to see Rivian succeed, as they offer cool colors and are run by an adult.
I really want an R2 for my wife, but would like to see them be solidly profitable and more secure before I’m comfortable buying one.
Almost bought a nearly new R1S last weekend at a used dealer. Loved it but it had a loud air whistle from the passenger side door/window. Dealer tried to “fix” it but wouldn’t go away. Not having a Rivian service center in my state yet made it a no go unfortunately.
Hoping they make it as a manufacturer. If I can get somewhat local service (less then 2 hours away) I’ll take the jump
What’s Toyota’s next act going to be?
Throwing all their profits and emissions gains into the gaping sinkhole of hydrogen.
“We couldn’t afford to develop the new supra on our own”
Meanwhile, Toyota continues to burn hundreds of Millions, if not Billions of dollars on Hydrogen development.
It is more it wasnot economical to design a Supra for a small market so we did a team design with another company. You can afford millions if you’re making billions. Actually that is exactly how billions are made.
The mark 5 Supra literally exists because BMW inexplicably wanted in on Toyota’s hydrogen tech. The Supra was the quid pro quo.
I still can’t quite believe it.
“Stop trying to make FeCH a thing!”
“Stop trying to make FeCH a thing!”
ferrochelatase?
Toyota is correct in hybridizing and AWD’ing everything in their lineup. Now, they need to Prime everything (AWD compatible pls), and the good times will keep rolling
Absolutely! A Corolla Prime in a hatchback would get my money first chance I could order one.
Sienna Prime AWD would be my first brand new car purchase in 15 years
Same. We could probably cover >90% of our trips on the battery alone. I can wait
As a resident of Pennsylvania I absolutely love an AWD. As a former resident of Florida, Texas, and California where the speed limit is under 75 mph and I don’t race cars saving thousands on a car without AWD is a great idea as well. Subaru is superstupid with everything AWD Always With Debt. I think the reason 90% of Subarus are still on the road after 10 years is whoever bought them couldn’t afford to buy a new vehicle because they were in debt as soon as the warranty ran out.
So…a Prius Prime? 😉
Sure if you get rid of the trunk and give it a hatch and make it cheaper and more in line with Corolla pricing then yea totally a Prius Prime. Haha.
I’m annoyed that the Corolla hatch hybrid isn’t sold in America. I’m guessing because the Corolla Cross exists but dammit Toyota just give me a hatchback and not a hatchback cosplaying as a crossover please and thank you.
The Prius is a hatchback. It’s not as pronounced in the new one, but it has never had a trunk. I doubt we’ll ever get a plain Corolla hatch here because the Prius brand is so strong and it would overlap so much.
I consider it more of a liftback. I know, I know, I’m splitting hairs but I don’t consider it a hatchback. I do a lot of parallel parking and space is at a premium so the additional 9 inches to make it look less like a hatchback is the difference between parking in a spot between 2 driveways or driving around and around trying to find a place to park. I had a rental Corolla hatch a few weeks ago and I fell in love with how easy it was to find a spot because everyone elses car was too big to fit.
I will second this comment, hatchbacks styled to look like a sedan etc lose a lot of utility vs ones styled like a wagon. Especially with how sleek the new prius is I’d almost rather it was just a sedan rather than having to open a heavy liftback for a tiny improvement in cargo carrying versatility vs the easy to open lid of a sedan. And that’s not even getting into the dimensional thing, which if it’s really that big a difference that’s huge. But also that’s a specific use case for us urban dwellers who only have access to street parking.
According to Carsized it’s a little under 9 inches shorter. Granted the Corolla is due for a new generation soon so I’m sure that’ll end up getting longer too.
https://www.carsized.com/en/cars/compare/toyota-corolla-2018-5-door-hatchback-vs-toyota-prius-2022-liftback/?units=imperial
Don’t feel bad. I’m right there with you, I’d love a Corolla Prime Hatchback. No; a Prius Prime, while currently being a good looking car, just doesn’t scratch the same itch as a proper hatchback Corolla.
The Prius is a hatchback. It’s not as pronounced in the new one, but it has never had a trunk.
Ahem:
https://images.hgmsites.net/med/2001-toyota-prius-sedan_100429447_m.jpg
Ha, I forgot the first gen.
agreed, if they sold the Corolla hatch as a Hybrid in the USA would be very tempting as a replacement for my wife’s daily driver.
The fact Toyota decreased emissions more than anyone else while making larger and heavier vehicles shows why Hybris are such an excellent option. You’re able to drastically reduce fuel consumption and emissions, sometimes by half, for around a tenth to sixth of the battery and motor materials required for an EV.
En masse, converting every ICE only car to a Hybrid would have a greater reduction in overall emissions that that same volume of rare earth metals would should they all be used for EVs. This is of course not to say EVs are bad, the science very strongly supports EVs are better than pure ICE vehicles in net emissions within 50k miles on US standard electricity.
That said, Hybrids are an excellent way to provide massive upside at lower cost and material expenditure. Not to mention Toyota has a massively reliable hybrid system on their hands compared to something like the Jeep 4xe setup which has been proven to be… dubious… means they’ll continue to rake in money with their Hybrids, whether it be conventional or plug-in.
And to touch on Hydrogen, I understand its use in the Japanese market because it’s one of the only abundant resources Toyota has for vehicles, so its a big boon domestically for energy/fuel independence, but in the US the most we will ever see adoption of Hydrogen will be long haul trucking, never in the consumer transportation space. The incentives to mature the technology and infrastructure are nonexistent when a standard PHEV or even EV is a cheaper and easier vehicle to operate, and the technology is far more universally appealing.
Toyota really needs to let Hydrogen die, there is no reason to sunk-cost fallacy their way into continued investment in Hydrogen when that money can be put into aggressive PHEV/Hybrid development, and towards future EV platforms that will eventually be something worth pursuing, even for Toyota.
And there’s rumors of the SF-R reaching production as a Miata fighter, and I speak for everyone when I say the choice between SF-R and Mirai is an easy one.
And to touch on Hydrogen, I understand its use in the Japanese market because it’s one of the only abundant resources Toyota has for vehicles
Hydrogen as used in HFCs is no more abundant in Japan than it is anywhere else: essentially nonexistant.
so its a big boon domestically for energy/fuel independence
Hardly. In fact Japan has a deal with Australia to import hydrogen made from filthy brown coal and a solemn pinkie promise to figure out the emissions later.
Oh that’s really interesting, I’m not sure where I got my former understanding from, but that makes sense. Also makes it even more baffling that Toyota is so hell bent on making FHCs work if it’s not even of significant benefit domestically.
Its a head scratcher. I just assumed its a pet project of someone very, very high up who can’t admit Musk was correct despite all the evidence.
and also, Toyota still uses NIMH, which doesn’t have the problems that lithium ion has (fires, lithium shortage, etc)
I think their “car” hybrids are using a blend of NIMH and Lithium Ion batteries now depending on model/trim (started with 3rd gen Prius I believe). It is the “truck” hybrids still using exclusively NIMH where the extra size and weight is less of a penalty.