Cars are sometimes described as “irrational purchases,” though I don’t entirely buy that. We live in a society that is designed around vehicles, and it’s not irrational for people to have tastes, even if lately it means people buying more car (or truck) than they really need. The one consumer who seems to be the most rational is the EV buyer.
There’s a new report out that shows the “conquest rate” of EVs that have been on sale for a while, and the extremely mid-Toyota bZ4x (Toyota’s only EV sold in North America) is the one that’s least likely to find customers from other brands. On the other side of this is the Ioniq 5, which is definitely not mid.
I haven’t driven a VW ID.3, mostly because they don’t sell it here, but Volkswagen has found a way to sell them: Make them cheaper. Amazing!
The one EV buyer who was maybe not rational was Hertz. The car rental company shot itself in the foot when it rode a wave of EV hype and bought a bunch of electric cars that few wanted to rent. Hertz is still paying the price, even though it’s finally sold off a big chunk of its EV fleet.
Nissan had a rough quarter, which isn’t a surprise, and it is finally talking about closing factories and cutting back. In total, Nissan is looking to remove a million units of capacity.
The Hyundai Ioniq 5 Is The Conquest King
Do you know what’s a good EV? The Hyundai Ioniq 5. It looks good. It’s not bad to drive. It gets decent range and, especially if you lease it, it’s not a bad deal. Hyundai is still a brand on the rise, so it has a high conquest rate (i.e. people from another brand buying its cars) relative to more established companies.
According to this report from S&P Global Mobility, registration data in the United States shows that Hyundai has a conquest rate of about 52.5%. The Ioniq 5? That car’s conquest rate was 74.2%, higher than any other mainstream electric car that was tracked (Tesla is not on this list).
In close second was the Cadillac Lyriq at 72.6% and, somewhat surprisingly, the GMC Hummer EV (pickup) at 71.3%. The Kia EV6, which is a platform-mate of the Hyundai, tied with the Volkswagen ID.4 at 57.4%.
You can see the whole range and, at the bottom, is the Toyota bZ4x, which is a car that I assume exists almost entirely for three kinds of buyers:
- People who want an EV and will only buy a Toyota.
- People who saw a very, very cheap lease for a Toyota and jumped at it.
- Uber drivers.
Recognizing the issue, Toyota has lowered the price of the bZ4x by $6,000, and, even then, its lackluster range (252 miles) and charging speeds (peak 150 kW CCS) make that not a great deal. Toyota’s overall conquest rate is low, but a lot of that’s due to Toyota being supply-limited and having high loyalty rates.
The F-150 Lightning and Mach-E also do better than the Ford average, which shows the tough position that Ford is in right now with regard to electrification. It’s both making popular EVs and also doing so in a way that’s so far from profitable it’s not like more sales are going to turn it around for the automaker.
The VW ID.3 Shows There’s A Butt For Every Seat At The Right Price
Is Volkswagen too serious? Volkswagen used to be about love, right? When did that change? I’m hopeful that the fun ID.Buzz helps Volkswagen see that it should embrace the love again.
In Europe, at least, VW has gone a little softer with its “Lease it, love it, fall in love again” campaign centered around leasing VW ID.3s at a rate even cheaper than the Volkswagen Golf. According to Manager Magazine, it’s working (translated):
In 2024, more than 6,000 customers are expected to have taken advantage of the offer; only 2,500 were planned. And this year, too, expectations were exceeded. According to an internal email exchange available to manager magazin, manufacturers and retailers had already exceeded the target of 5,000 leasing contracts several days before the end of the campaign.
The registration figures for the ID.3 show how extraordinary the values ​​are: Last year, more than a quarter of the 20,101 newly registered models are likely to have come from the special campaign in February.
I think this goes to show that there’s a price level where people are willing to gamble on EV ownership, and most electric cars outside of China aren’t quite there yet.
Hertz Lost $2.9 Billion In 2024, Finally Offloaded Its EV Fleet
Hertz made the big gamble to buy a bunch of EVs, especially from Tesla, at the height of EV hype. It didn’t work out for the company. Renters didn’t seem to want to hassle with recharging a car, and, perhaps worse, the company assumed a lower operating cost that never materialized.
The company decided to reverse course and sell many of its EVs at a loss, but they bought high and, when Tesla and BYD started a global EV price war, saw depreciation soar. According to the company’s 2024 financial report, the company lost $2.9 billion on $9.0 billion of revenue.
Some of this is still tied to EVs, as the company is trying to improve its depreciation per unit, which jumped well above the $300 rate it wants to hit.
The company showed improvement in depreciation costs, which fell 16% to $422 a vehicle per month, but that is still high compared to traditional levels of less than $300. Hertz said it is changing over vehicles in its fleet to bring its depreciation costs in line with normal levels.
I know people who have purchased ex-rental fleet EVs and gotten a great deal on them, so not everyone lost in this transaction.
Update:Â A Hertz spokesperson had this to say:
We’ve sold the 30K that we previously announced last year– not all of our EV fleet. As we said during our earnings call and previous earnings, EVs will continue be a part of our fleet as we recognize their strategic value in markets with established product market fit and infrastructure, particularly in our rideshare rental program partnerships with Uber and Lyft, where drivers receive advantageous partner incentives for choosing EVs over traditional ICE vehicles, and in our international markets.
Additionally, as part of the normal course of business, we will continue to sell both ICE and EVs through our sales channels, including direct to consumers through Hertz Car Sales. As one of the world’s largest used car dealers we are excited about the unique opportunity that Hertz Car Sales presents to generate greater returns and as a result are prioritizing making retail our primary car selling channel.
Nissan Will Finally Agree To Cut Plants
It’s a terrible situation when a company has to lay people off or, in the case of automakers, stop production at whole facilities. These moves not only harm individuals, they can have a huge and dramatic impact on communities.
So it’s not a good thing that Nissan has to reduce its capacity over the next few years through a mixture of layoffs, shift reductions, and plant closures. It’s terrible.
If the company is to survive, though, it needs to make a major correction. Nissan, it seems, is ready to make that correction. Here are the first steps, according to Automotive News:
Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida, desperately trying to dig out from back-to-back quarterly net losses, plans to shutter three factories in the next two years, cut shifts at U.S. plants, slash executive ranks by 20 percent and cast about for new partners in a bid to keep the Japanese carmaker going.
Uchida outlined those steps and more Feb. 13 as he updated the turnaround plan he unveiled in November and announced tumbling profits in the latest financial quarter.
The embattled Nissan Motor Co. boss also defended his board’s decision to pull the plug on merger talks with Honda Motor Co., a move that was finalized by both companies earlier in the day.
Uchida said Honda’s revised proposal to make Nissan a subsidiary was unacceptable.
The other thing Nissan has to do is make cars people want to buy and, at least with the Kicks and maybe the new Murano, there’s some progress in that direction.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
It’s Wyclef and the Refugee All-Stars doing their take on “We Trying To Stay Alive.” Great stuff.
The Big Question
If you were to buy an EV, would it be from the brand of the car you already own? Good luck Scion owners.
Hmm – would I buy a BMW, Mercedes, Land Rover, or Triumph EV? Not a snowball’s chance in Hell. The EV I have disliked the least so far is the EV6. And it would be a very cold day in Hell indeed before I would deal with that user interface on a daily basis.
I have to say that I’m reasonably impressed with my Triumph motorcycle’s build quality. It’s not a Honda, but it’s damned near close.
Well, Triumph Motorcars and Triumph Motorcycles split up in the late 30s, IIRC, so I don’t think one says much about the other. 😉 Mine’s a ’74(kinda-sorta) Triumph Spitfire of the 4-wheeled variety. A great car once you take it completely apart and put it back together again correctly. The factory wasn’t so good at that in the ’70s.
What is it about the interface you dislike? I don’t have one but would consider them in future
Screens, screens, screens screens, screens, screens, screens, screens, and would you like another screen, Sir, to go with your sceens? And nowhere near enough buttons and knobs for things that should have buttons and knobs.
Have I mentioned how much I LOATH touchscreens? With the blinding heat of a 1000 suns.
I get it. The Kia has more physical buttons than others like my Mach E do, so I happen to like the layout personally. GM also does their infotainment mix pretty well
The charging infrastructure near me is piss-poor, I can’t charge at home nor at work. So no EV’s for me anytime soon.
I have Volvo, a Toyota, and a Pontiac. So that’s a no, with the exception of mayyyyyyyyybe Volvo. Not sure what they even offer, though it would most likely be out of range.
I really don’t have enough interest in anything out there to go into debt for it. Existing is expensive enough without a big car payment.
There was a time where you could get a crazy lease deal on a 400hp Volvo XC40/C40 Recharge (EV) with the both the federal tax credit and $5k Costco member’s discount. I think it cost as much as a loaded top trim mainstream subcompact crossover in total cost after buying out at the lease end. EV ownership without home charging is definitely a no go IMO, and existing is indeed expensive.
The only issue with the recharge ones (now EX40) was that they had terrible and uncompetitive range and charging, much like the bz4x. They finally addressed that this year. I may wait for the 2026 model year when they get plug&charge and NACS. I like to buy used so I may stretch my Mach E out for a few years for those prices to come down
I agree about home charging. Infrastructure and charge speed just isn’t there yet if you can’t charge at home or work. An Ioniq 5 or EV6 may work with their 18 minute charge times, but I sure wouldn’t want my Mach E if I didn’t charge at home
Hertz has sold off some of it’s fleet of EVs (probably all of it’s Teslas), but they still have plenty of them kicking around. I rented a car in Portland, ME last weekend, they had a row of five EV6s. And one charger… And even though it was Friday night and the lot was pretty empty, they had five EVs sitting there.
And they are renting them for CHEAP, I think I could have gotten an EV6 for $40/day. Probably should have, given I ended up driving that rental all of about 15 miles. From the airport home and back to the airport – easiest way to get there at 4am. But I have Hertz points that are going to expire, might as well use them up. Even for cheap, few seem any more willing to bother with it than I am. I did it a couple times when Hertz didn’t charge you for bringing them back less charged than you left the place, but I can’t be bothered to hunt around for a charger and deal with all the app nonsense to pay for electrons on a rental.
“If you were to buy an EV, would it be from the brand of the car you already own?”
Maybe. GM has a few that I enjoyed when I drove them, but I prefer a car to an SUV. The Blazer was a little too big, but the Equinox seemed really nice. I really like the Lyriq too and those have been out long enough that there’s some nicely depreciated used ones available. I’m not interested in a Wagoneer S, so Stellantis is out. The BMW I4 would be a lot of fun, but I already have a 330e and I think that’s the better choice for us, since I prefer the PHEV and just being able to use gas on long trips. Nothing available from Mazda or MG in the US.
The Lyriq is so nice. Once they get below $30k on the used market I may jump on one. Either that or an EX40 from Volvo for my next
Well, I live in a condo with a parking lot that tends to flood a bit with salt (or brackish, at least) water for half of the year. There are no chargers, and I don’t think the board would look at that kindly on me running a cord from the storage room, that has a shared electricity bill, out to an EV that is surrounded by water.
I enjoy very much where I live, so with that said, I’d never consider an EV, not even a Caddy.
In fact, I consider EVs in their current form, as pretty darn wasteful and damaging to all of society, considering how it is sourced. Even though there are plenty of chargers around, and plenty of EVs on the roads. I get that for some people with an elevated garage and a solar roof, that it makes sense. It won’t work in my particular case.
So…yeah. Nope.
I would not buy a Hyundai EV and I am very unlikely to buy another Hyundai in general. My brush with potentially needing a full engine replacement at 15,000 miles was enough to scare me away, and some of the horrors I’ve witnessed at the dealership while waiting for them to get done servicing my car were the icing on the cake.
And don’t get me started on the depreciation. It’s otherworldly…practically German luxury car levels of bad. Don’t get me wrong, I didn’t expect to make money when buying a Hyundai, but for it to be worth basically half what I paid for it in a trade in after 3 years and less than 20,000 miles is fucking bleak.
I was a conquest buyer, but I will definitely not be sticking with the brand, and unfortunately I think there are going to be a lot of people who wind up feeling the same way. The cars look great, they feel great, they have tons of features, and Hyundai offers generous in house financing both when it comes to their rates and who they’re willing to approve.
But the devil always comes to collect his dues, and that infamous Hyundai QC is going to bite you sooner or later….if someone at the dealership doesn’t quite literally bite you first.
So is that going to necessitate a name change?
Probably not. I’ve been known as this round these parts since the beginning so I don’t see why I’d change it.
Considering the only non-EV I have is a Jeep, you can’t get the Wagoneer S or Recon yet, plus I wouldn’t touch a Stellantis product with a 10′ pole, I’d say nope.
We have a Nissan Leaf, and it’s been a cheap and reliable EV, but I’m not buying another one, or any other Nissan.
My daily is a Mach-E, the first Ford I’ve ever owned, and I am looking at other Ford products in the future. The Ranger Raptor is tempting.
I also daily a Mach E. They’re such amazing cars, I hope Ford figures out how to make a profit on them
Tough choice as a Honda owner since my options are:
1: A Chevy
2: Wait a couple years for car that looks like a futuristic vacuum and pretends to be my friend
The Prologue is a really nice car but early reports seem to indicate that it’s been plagued with some of the same reliability issues that are nailing the Blazer its based on. Which is bizarre because the other Ultium cars have been pretty smooth sailing so far. I think the Blazer is just cursed by the car gods
Ah the Toyota hurkhurkhurk is here to replace the badly named ev this atleast can be named by a cat w a hairball.
Subaru: nope
Toyota: nope
Dodge: nope
Ford: nope
Lexus: nope
Fiat: nope
Honda: give me the Honda e.
That’s because the busy forks sucks. The only legitimate reason to buy one is because it is a Toyota, and if you’re the sort of person that has that kind of faith in the Toyota brand you probably already own a Toyota.
Ford: I’d do a Mach-E Rally
Honda: Prologue? Nope, that’s GM
Mazda: They don’t make an EV currently.
If you were to buy an EV, would it be from the brand of the car you already own? Good luck Scion owners.
Hmmm.
Scion, nope.
Mitsubishi…..iMiev? NO WAY
BMW – Too ugly across the board. The i4 could be good with a facelift
Zero(MC) – oh wait! Done and done
But real answer, if someone was twisting my arm to buy an EV…..probably a Bolt. Gotta be cheap(ish) and small. I checked out a Rivian R1S, but they are massive and suck a lot of juice.
I’m legit excited for the refreshed Bolt coming later this year. I hope they can keep the price where the old one was at
I tried to sit in a iMiev at Ribfest eons ago. I’m not much taller than an average Japanese person, and found it really hard to get into without being a contortionist. Don’t seem to have that much difficulty getting into Kei cars, though.
Why is brand conquest rate not the same across different models of the same brand?
Hyundai has 52.5% and 53%
Ford has 36.4% and 36.7%
Audi has 43.7%, 54.6% and 55.2%
Not sure about Audi’s numbers but I suspect it just a spreadsheet rounding issue for whoever set up the table or the values are based on different data for each model (Q2 versus Q3 for Ex) . I too would expect the brand % to be the same.
I’m wondering if they excluded the model being highlighted from the overall brand when they compared so they could show differences between one model and the rest of the brand.
Does SRT make an EV?
More seriously, I probably would consider a future EV made by Cadillac, but not any of their current offerings.
Interestingly, I’m actually looking at a lease on Lyriq cause here in Canada, it’s the cheapest lease BY FAR. I can’t afford to buy a new ride at the moment, but I’m interested in cheaply kicking that can 2 years down the road.
If GM/Cadillac would take their 200 kWh+ battery from the Silverado/Escalade/Hummer, and put it under a long wheelbase sedan body to make an 800 mile range vehicle, I would buy it.
Wouldn’t care if the proportions were off, wouldn’t care if it was more expensive than the truck, etc.
Show me someone who is serious about range.
I just want an EREV pickup long-term as my general purpose family hauler and tow pig.
This gives the market 2 years to show me what’s coming.
Not yet.
The BZ4X or whatever is a dumb name for a mild effort vehicle. It almost feels like sandbagging the EV market. “see? No one buys EV’s Toyota will not make more.” No people don’t want mid EV’s. If you made an EV RAV4 that was even close to the ICE for practicality, you wouldn’t be able to build enough of them. I mean, you can’t already build enough Primes
Or even regular Prii. I waited 2 years for my new one.
“If you were to buy an EV, would it be from the brand of the car you already own?”
Pontiac (two) (dead)
Yugo (dead)
Jaguar (essentially dead)
Porsche (out of my price range)
Chevrolet (a used Bolt maybe)
(Am I a black widow for car brands?)
If you are a black widow for car brands, you seem most likely to end up with a Nissan Leaf.
Good call.
Honestly give porsche some time, I cannot wait to see what the depreciation on an electric macan is
The good news is the electric Jag will be a flop and depreciate like crazy, so it’ll be cheap. And it’s a Jaguar, how unreliable can it be
(Cries internally as an XK8 owner who is constantly at the shop)
“If you were to buy an EV, would it be from the brand of the car you already own? ”
As a Mazda owner probably not.
I haven’t even seen Mazda attempt to enter the EV space. They have a few PHEV but that’s about it.
The MX-30 was a pure EV I believe?
But that was basically a compliance vehicle/test car. The range was awful.
It was a compliance vehicle and to my knowledge they are no longer available for sale. (They were only available in CA to begin with IIRC).
Yeah I wouldn’t call it a legitimate attempt.
Mazda was looking pretty foolish just a few years ago for being late to the EV party. They are actually looking pretty lucky now that the full on EV push is getting pushback. Mazda seems to have settled on doing hybrids which gives them more time to develop a full electric model.
Their thing was the Skyactiv X, a compression/spark ignition hybrid. IIRC the main criticism was a lack of low end power which makes it sound ideal to pair with an electric motor, making it I guess a double hybrid. Although they were working on an inline six version which would make for an even more interesting double hybrid.
I think the big news here is that Ford has a horrible conquest rate. How is it so much lower than even Nissan?
Also, why is conquest rate different for different models from the same brand? Is it segment specific or something? I.e. why does Ford Lightning list a Brand conquest rate of 36.7% but the Mach-E has a Brand conquest rate of 36.4%? Differences are minor for every brand, is it just noise?
That’s sort of funny. In my circle, fully half the people who got rid of Teslas bought Mach-Es. Eight Teslas replaced with four Mach-Es. Otherwise, a Polestar, a Volvo hybrid, and two EV6s.
One Mach-E has been replaced by an EV9, but he gets a new car every couple of years anyway.
I went with a Mach E after my Volt because of Elon’s antics. I used to love Tesla but just couldn’t stomach it.
The Mach E is a sweet ride. It definitely has me interested in more Fords in the future
I’ve driven my friend’s Mach-E. It’s nice enough, if too modern for my tastes. Certainly didn’t actively annoy me like Teslas do (and Musk has nothing to do with that other than his touch is all over the idiotic interior of the things).
The only EV I regularly entertain the idea of purchasing right now is a used Bolt. With the incentives, I could get one for $10-15k which is pretty darn cheap especially given that many have less than 50k miles and nearly all of them have new and upgraded batteries. The 500e is tempting to me as well and would work great, but it’s far too expensive for me.
Just make sure you get one with the fast charger. DCFC was optional on early Bolts, not that 55kw is particularly fast anyway
It would be an around town only car for me and I would exclusively charge at home. I have the Miata and a van for going further.
I don’t currently own a Vanderhall, but I would daily a Brawley. In fact, a top range Brawley I think is a more desirable EV than most of what is out there on the market.
Given I have a Mazda right now, and the MX-30 was the only option, and a poor one at that, I’d have to be shopping elsewhere. I would be seriously looking at Hyundai and Kia EVs, they’re extremely compelling lease deals.
I’d be in the same predicament. Ioniq 5/6 would be on the short list to be sure!
Nope. I own a Toyota right now. The EVs that I’ve eyed have all been better than the busy forks.
topshot???
What the heck does “conquest rate” mean?
The rate the car pulls from competitors, so if you were to trade in a Tesla on a BZ4X, you would contribute to the conquest rate, trading in a Prius would not.
It’s the percentage of buyers coming over from other brands. So it’s conquest over another brand.
Basically conversion rate of non-customers into to customers. So converting anyone that isn’t already a Toyota customer into a Toyota customer or “stealing” customers from competitors.
Percentage of buyers trading a Chrysler Conquest for an EV. Crazy that there’s still that many out there.
Yeah but what about all the Dodge and Plymouth Conquest owners?
We avoid talking about those as much as possible.
I had no idea there were still that many Conquests left but that does explains why so many have shown up on Bring a Trailer lately, they are being used as trade-ins.
Was that explained in the article and I missed it?
Update: It was, but above the section header. Odd choice.
It’s the percentage dealers win against consumers in a game of Risk. Hyundai has been really pushing the build out South America work into North America campaign. Then go Africa/ Europe. Consumers are always trying for Asia first. They don’t have the resources for that!