Cars are sometimes described as “irrational purchases,” though I don’t entirely buy that. We live in a society that is designed around vehicles, and it’s not irrational for people to have tastes, even if lately it means people buying more car (or truck) than they really need. The one consumer who seems to be the most rational is the EV buyer.
There’s a new report out that shows the “conquest rate” of EVs that have been on sale for a while, and the extremely mid-Toyota bZ4x (Toyota’s only EV sold in North America) is the one that’s least likely to find customers from other brands. On the other side of this is the Ioniq 5, which is definitely not mid.
I haven’t driven a VW ID.3, mostly because they don’t sell it here, but Volkswagen has found a way to sell them: Make them cheaper. Amazing!
The one EV buyer who was maybe not rational was Hertz. The car rental company shot itself in the foot when it rode a wave of EV hype and bought a bunch of electric cars that few wanted to rent. Hertz is still paying the price, even though it’s finally sold off a big chunk of its EV fleet.
Nissan had a rough quarter, which isn’t a surprise, and it is finally talking about closing factories and cutting back. In total, Nissan is looking to remove a million units of capacity.
The Hyundai Ioniq 5 Is The Conquest King
Do you know what’s a good EV? The Hyundai Ioniq 5. It looks good. It’s not bad to drive. It gets decent range and, especially if you lease it, it’s not a bad deal. Hyundai is still a brand on the rise, so it has a high conquest rate (i.e. people from another brand buying its cars) relative to more established companies.
According to this report from S&P Global Mobility, registration data in the United States shows that Hyundai has a conquest rate of about 52.5%. The Ioniq 5? That car’s conquest rate was 74.2%, higher than any other mainstream electric car that was tracked (Tesla is not on this list).
In close second was the Cadillac Lyriq at 72.6% and, somewhat surprisingly, the GMC Hummer EV (pickup) at 71.3%. The Kia EV6, which is a platform-mate of the Hyundai, tied with the Volkswagen ID.4 at 57.4%.
You can see the whole range and, at the bottom, is the Toyota bZ4x, which is a car that I assume exists almost entirely for three kinds of buyers:
- People who want an EV and will only buy a Toyota.
- People who saw a very, very cheap lease for a Toyota and jumped at it.
- Uber drivers.
Recognizing the issue, Toyota has lowered the price of the bZ4x by $6,000, and, even then, its lackluster range (252 miles) and charging speeds (peak 150 kW CCS) make that not a great deal. Toyota’s overall conquest rate is low, but a lot of that’s due to Toyota being supply-limited and having high loyalty rates.
The F-150 Lightning and Mach-E also do better than the Ford average, which shows the tough position that Ford is in right now with regard to electrification. It’s both making popular EVs and also doing so in a way that’s so far from profitable it’s not like more sales are going to turn it around for the automaker.
The VW ID.3 Shows There’s A Butt For Every Seat At The Right Price
Is Volkswagen too serious? Volkswagen used to be about love, right? When did that change? I’m hopeful that the fun ID.Buzz helps Volkswagen see that it should embrace the love again.
In Europe, at least, VW has gone a little softer with its “Lease it, love it, fall in love again” campaign centered around leasing VW ID.3s at a rate even cheaper than the Volkswagen Golf. According to Manager Magazine, it’s working (translated):
In 2024, more than 6,000 customers are expected to have taken advantage of the offer; only 2,500 were planned. And this year, too, expectations were exceeded. According to an internal email exchange available to manager magazin, manufacturers and retailers had already exceeded the target of 5,000 leasing contracts several days before the end of the campaign.
The registration figures for the ID.3 show how extraordinary the values ​​are: Last year, more than a quarter of the 20,101 newly registered models are likely to have come from the special campaign in February.
I think this goes to show that there’s a price level where people are willing to gamble on EV ownership, and most electric cars outside of China aren’t quite there yet.
Hertz Lost $2.9 Billion In 2024, Finally Offloaded Its EV Fleet
Hertz made the big gamble to buy a bunch of EVs, especially from Tesla, at the height of EV hype. It didn’t work out for the company. Renters didn’t seem to want to hassle with recharging a car, and, perhaps worse, the company assumed a lower operating cost that never materialized.
The company decided to reverse course and sell many of its EVs at a loss, but they bought high and, when Tesla and BYD started a global EV price war, saw depreciation soar. According to the company’s 2024 financial report, the company lost $2.9 billion on $9.0 billion of revenue.
Some of this is still tied to EVs, as the company is trying to improve its depreciation per unit, which jumped well above the $300 rate it wants to hit.
The company showed improvement in depreciation costs, which fell 16% to $422 a vehicle per month, but that is still high compared to traditional levels of less than $300. Hertz said it is changing over vehicles in its fleet to bring its depreciation costs in line with normal levels.
I know people who have purchased ex-rental fleet EVs and gotten a great deal on them, so not everyone lost in this transaction.
Update:Â A Hertz spokesperson had this to say:
We’ve sold the 30K that we previously announced last year– not all of our EV fleet. As we said during our earnings call and previous earnings, EVs will continue be a part of our fleet as we recognize their strategic value in markets with established product market fit and infrastructure, particularly in our rideshare rental program partnerships with Uber and Lyft, where drivers receive advantageous partner incentives for choosing EVs over traditional ICE vehicles, and in our international markets.
Additionally, as part of the normal course of business, we will continue to sell both ICE and EVs through our sales channels, including direct to consumers through Hertz Car Sales. As one of the world’s largest used car dealers we are excited about the unique opportunity that Hertz Car Sales presents to generate greater returns and as a result are prioritizing making retail our primary car selling channel.
Nissan Will Finally Agree To Cut Plants
It’s a terrible situation when a company has to lay people off or, in the case of automakers, stop production at whole facilities. These moves not only harm individuals, they can have a huge and dramatic impact on communities.
So it’s not a good thing that Nissan has to reduce its capacity over the next few years through a mixture of layoffs, shift reductions, and plant closures. It’s terrible.
If the company is to survive, though, it needs to make a major correction. Nissan, it seems, is ready to make that correction. Here are the first steps, according to Automotive News:
Nissan CEO Makoto Uchida, desperately trying to dig out from back-to-back quarterly net losses, plans to shutter three factories in the next two years, cut shifts at U.S. plants, slash executive ranks by 20 percent and cast about for new partners in a bid to keep the Japanese carmaker going.
Uchida outlined those steps and more Feb. 13 as he updated the turnaround plan he unveiled in November and announced tumbling profits in the latest financial quarter.
The embattled Nissan Motor Co. boss also defended his board’s decision to pull the plug on merger talks with Honda Motor Co., a move that was finalized by both companies earlier in the day.
Uchida said Honda’s revised proposal to make Nissan a subsidiary was unacceptable.
The other thing Nissan has to do is make cars people want to buy and, at least with the Kicks and maybe the new Murano, there’s some progress in that direction.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
It’s Wyclef and the Refugee All-Stars doing their take on “We Trying To Stay Alive.” Great stuff.
The Big Question
If you were to buy an EV, would it be from the brand of the car you already own? Good luck Scion owners.
If I had a gun to my head to buy an EV, it would likely be a Model S. Main reasons being I have cheaper access to parts (friends working for suppliers), other friends that know the ins/outs of ownership/repair on them, and the most developed aftermarket for de-Teslafying it.
Basically, it’s the oldest on the road of available options that makes any sense for me.
The “busy forks” definitely had people looking at it when I was at the Chicago Auto Show this week. But looks don’t necessarily translate into sales or leases. I suspect most of those people either normies who thought it was some kind of RAV4, or they were people curious about an electric Toyota. I had to clarify to one person that it wasn’t hydrogen-powered. The hourly (or whatever it is) Toyota Live presentation played up hydrogen quite a bit, so maybe people thought there was a hydrogen car at the show.
If I were going to buy a new EV right now, most likely it would be a 2nd Tesla for me. Probably the refreshed Model Y, but I’d rather wait a couple years to work some bugs out. My first Tesla has been very reliable with exactly zero service visits in the 3 years I’ve owned it. The only maintenance I’ve done is rotate tires and an alignment.
“If you were to buy an EV, would it be from the brand of the car you already own? “
Well I own a Ford C-Max. So yes, I would consider buying a Ford Mach E. Though I know of at least one person who has to lemon-law their Mach E.
So like other Ford and GM products, it’s a good idea to avoid the first 1-2 model years. So I would limit myself to a 2023 Mach E or newer.
But other EVs I would consider are the Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6.
In the past, I would have told you I would consider a Tesla. But with Elon Musk’s behaviour getting worse and worse, I’m now in the “no Teslas at any price” camp.
The only way I would consider a Tesla is if Elon Musk left the company and completely sold off his shares in the company.
The Ioniq 5 and Lyriq being 2 of the best EV offerings on the market make sense for conquest rate.
They also don’t depreciate as much as others do. I got a used Mach E this year since those are finally getting cheap, but the Ioniq 5 was routinely several thousand dollars more expensive on the used market, and it’s tough to find a Lyriq below $40k. People genuinely like the vehicles.
Meanwhile the Nissan Ariya can routinely be found below $20k after used car tax credit for a one year old car. It’s absolutely insane the depreciation, but it’s not a competitive offering so it makes sense.
Anyway, I love my Mach E. I think they’re the best all-around package (and the head rest in the Ioniq 5 gives me headaches so I couldn’t do that)
Our aging Forester is…well aging, and a Forester, and I told the wife no more Subarus, but leases on the Solterras are pretty good deals, especially for her 10 mile daily commute to work. Actually really want an ID.4 for her with the massaging seat but the lease ones of those with the upgraded seat aren’t very common that can also get the lease deal. We want to jump on one maybe before end of the month due to the climate, and I’m not talking weather.
The Solterra isn’t terrible as an EV, as it has pretty good efficiency but the range and charging speed is let down by the ‘base model’ sized battery. Assuming you’re able to charge at home and you avoid road trips, it’ll be perfectly fine. However, I thought the interior of the bZ4X I sat in looked terrible; the dashboard was designed to look futuristic, but instead it looks awkwardly huge and highlights the cheap looking dash plastic. The steering wheel might end up blocking the instrument cluster depending on your seating position, so make sure you both check that!
They’ve really replaced the Bolt in terms of “basic EV that can’t really road trip but is fantastic around town.”
Now they just have to match the Bolt in price and they’ll have a winner.
Yeah I’m iffy on the knob shifter and lack of a glovebox, but like you say, it’s a car, it’ll get you there, reasonable lease. Also looking at the Prologue, that’s probably the one to get, but want a lot more down.
Well I’ve got a gti, and the only evs I’d truly consider would be a cheap leaf to get groceries with and an ioniq 5. If the id 3 was here I’d almost consider it out of pity for vw if nothing else though. Although that’s not exactly solid new car thinking
The new Kicks and Murano are really nice, but a lot of informed customers would be hesitant to buy a car from a company that might go belly up. It’s a sad gotcha.
Well the garage features a Mazda and a Kia. Mazda does not offer any EVs in the US, though if they get the rotary range extender thing working better and bring it over I might. I guess I’d buy an EV from Kia.
Really I wouldn’t buy a pure BEV in any case, it’d have to be an EREV. Seems like Genesis is going to get into that game so maybe one of those
Just curious, if you have 2 cars, why wouldn’t you want one as a pure BEV if you have a home where you could charge?
The 18 minute charge time for the EV6 on road trips is a real game changer
Genesis shares this battery platform, can concur. We have a Kia Sportage HEV and an EV Genesis GV60 with a Level II charger for it. It really does work well, our needs are met, and our fuel costs have dropped dramatically.
Toyota and all electric LOL! ..Sure would could go wrong..????
“If you were to buy an EV, would it be from the brand of the car you already own?”
Cries in Pontiac..
OK, the DD is a Honda and there is one Honda EV I’d consider, but it’s not sold in the US.
One of the school dads has just bought a bz4x. I had to ask him WTF, but in a more subtle way. He said that intends to keep the car for a while, he’s not sure about long term reliability of the non-motor bits of anything other than a Tesla or a Toyota (no Honda EVs here in the U.K. afaik) and he’d rather cut his genitals off with a rusty spoon before buying a Tesla (I paraphrase). Which I thought was a decent answer.
The bZ4X seems like an alright option (ignoring the competition and price) given Europe’s generally shorter distances making it’s small battery less of a disadvantage. Unless he got a good deal, I’d guess there’s better non-Tesla options available in the UK market that we don’t get in the US.
Yeah it’s really a shame how Elon Musk has lost his mind and cozied up to Trump and the Republicans. He’s a complete fool if he didn’t think that would cause a growing amount of political blowback over time for him and Tesla.
I can see why the ioniq 5 is popular. We have one and the wife and I love it. Great car for daily driving around San Jose.
That being said, I can see why Hertz is dumping evs. The public charging sucks in metro areas and really sucks outside of that. I love my ioniq 5, but wouldn’t get an ev rental car.
Toyota doesn’t build an EV when some people thinks EVs are the hottest thing. Most people say oh hell no. Toyota agrees but finally relents to stock holder pressure to build an EV probably knowing full well that it won’t sell. And Toyota is proven right. I don’t think Toyota is too worried about it not selling.