One of our biggest stories last week was a report about a study that showed 46% of EV owners in the United States say they’re going to go back to a gas-powered car. At the time I wrote the story, I lacked an actual copy of the study, so I was just going on what was already reported.
After posting the story I got a lot of feedback from people stating it was “fake news” and wanting to get more details on how the study was done, with a lot of chatter on X/Twitter over the findings.
I’ve now got a copy of the McKinsey Mobility Consumer Pulse (MMCP) study, produced by McKinsey’s Center for Future Mobility (MCFM), and I now have a lot of answers to the various questions people had about the study.
What Is This Study? Who Answered The Questions?
The report, which I will refer to as the MFCM study, surveyed more than 30,000 respondents globally who “regularly use mobility” and asked more than 200 questions about mobility, car ownership, and consumer preferences.
McKinsey is a massive consulting firm and “mobility” is of interest to governments, investors, and large companies (all of which buy services from firms like McKinsey). Specifically, the company says the MCFM:
“[H]as worked with stakeholders across the mobility ecosystem by providing independent and integrated evidence about possible future-mobility scenarios. With our unique, bottom-up modeling approach, our insights enable an end-to-end analytics journey through the future of mobility—from consumer needs to a modal mix across urban/rural areas, sales, value pools, and life cycle sustainability.
Since 2021, the survey has included consumers from the 15 biggest auto markets (ranging from massive markets like the United States and China to smaller ones like Norway and South Africa). Overall, the countries included account for more than 80% of global sales volume.
According to the MFCM, the survey was conducted in February of this year.
Where Did That 46% Number Come From?
Here’s the question that was asked of current EV owners:
How likely are you to switch back to a traditional combustion engine vehicle based on your current experience with the electric vehicle you own?
Globally, the average number is about 29%, but you can see the full chart here:
The country where someone is most likely to switch back to an internal combustion engine-powered car is Australia, at almost half, followed by the United States and Brazil. The reasoning?
I don’t have a breakdown for American consumers, but globally the biggest reasons for switching back were:
- Total cost of ownership too high (34.5%)
- Cannot charge at home (33.8%)
- Needing to worry about changing is too stressful (31.9%)
As someone who regularly borrows electric cars but cannot charge at home, I can relate to this. Public charging simply isn’t good enough for me and I live in a relatively dense urban environment.
More People Than Ever Want EVs Globally, They Just Want Them To Be Cheaper
The largest barrier to ownership might be practical concerns around charging, but that doesn’t mean people aren’t interested in electric cars. The number of respondents globally who say that they’re going to purchase a BEV (battery electric vehicle) for their next car grew to 17.6% this year, up from 14% in December of 2021.
Overall, 70% of respondents said they’d either be getting a BEV or PHEV next or, at the very least, only expected to own one more gas-powered car before switching over to an electric car.
That, too, conforms with my experience as I plan to buy a hybrid and then, hopefully, an electric car if charging around me improves.
Still, the reasons why people haven’t switched over yet have a lot to do with the fact that EVs are too expensive in most places. The top reasons given for not wanting to switch were:
- Too expensive (45%)
- Charging concerns (33%)
- Driving range concerns (29%)
Obviously, the “expensive” issue is geography dependent. In China, there are plenty of affordable electric cars so only 9% of EV skeptics interviewed there were worried about cost of ownership. Norway was the only other country that low, at 29% of EV skeptics, but Norway has become the largest EV market proportionally due to extremely high subsidies for electric cars.
And, going deeper into consumers in the United States, many are likely to postpone a new EV purchase because of “the current economic situation” as you can see in this graphic:
This isn’t just in the EV market. The average age of American cars is now 14 years as people hold onto their cars, EV or ICE, a lot longer. There are many ways to interpret “the current economic situation” and I think a lot of it has to do with higher uncertainty and higher interest rates.
People Also Want More Range
Here’s an interesting tidbit from the study:
Range expectations have been increasing over time (+ ~30% in the past 5 years) and are outpacing actual range improvements: Since 2022 consumers demand 5% more range, while actual range increased by only 2%
As of the most recent study, people expect at least 291 miles of maximum range, on average, before they’d consider getting a new electric car. This is a little higher than many vehicles currently for sale, but it puts quasi-affordable vehicles like the Tesla Model Y, Mach-E, and Equinox EV on the table.
I Don’t Think This Is Entirely Bad News
If you love electric cars or think everyone should be driving an electric car then this is not what you want to hear. It’s hard enough to get someone to switch to an electric car and hearing that almost half of owners in the United States want a gas-powered car isn’t encouraging.
The study didn’t ask if those people would consider buying a hybrid or a PHEV when going back to a gas-powered car, but that’s not an unreasonable assumption (especially if those owners have access to home charging).
While there are many good electric cars on the market, the next generation of EVs will hopefully better meet range requirements and cost less money. If automakers can deliver a little more range for a little less money then new consumers seem to be there according to this study.
At the same time, it’s important for the industry and the government to work together to solve charging issues, especially in denser urban corridors.
I actually own a PHEV (Family car) and 2 electric cars as commuters for my spouse and myself . Thanks to federal rebates and big discounts it made more sense to our household to proceed that way, including the installation of solar panels and two Level 2 chargers. Gas prices fluctuate a lot and we are saving $200 worth of gas per electric vehicle per month.
If we are going far we just take the PHEV minivan with the kids and dogs while we average 30mpg, not bad. I know resale values are no bueno but that helps the used market to move units to other folks.
At this point everyone should be considering at least a Hybrid but the only ones available are either expensive too or dont have rebates at all.
I don’t think we will be having this discussion a few years from now. Battery prices are dropping fast and faster charging is around the corner.
When you look at the offerings of CATL, BYD and LG the 3 largest battery manufactures, it impressive too see the gains in energy density, price and charging speed these companies are making. This tech is being exported out of Asia and into the US by deals like Ford licensing CATL battery tech for their new Blue Oval battery plant. It is not just Ford, every OEM seems to have a battery deal with an Asian supplier.
Today in China, you can buy an BYD Dolphin for the equivalent $14k US. https://electrek.co/2024/02/23/byd-launches-new-dolphin-ev-14k-price-war/
We might not see prices this low here in the US for another 2 to 3 years, but the factories and supply chains are being built as we speak.
One thing I don’t understand. Do people not have 240v? I get if you live in an apartment, but charging stations at apartment are more of an amenity. Every house I have ever rented or owned had 240v for the clothes dryer. A 240v level 2 charger is like $500. A Ford Mach E will fully charge with level 2 charging in 11 hours. 27miles per charge hour. I’m surprised Galpin isn’t giving them away with every EV they sell. Or have maybe even an electrician on staff to install them for EV buyers.
I’m no electrician, but my understanding is that not all 240V outlets are created equal. A family member just bought a Model Y and already had a 240V RV outlet in the garage, but it apparently didn’t have enough amperage to support the charger at a sufficient rate. So the electrician had to run a new outlet. I’m sure somebody more knowledgeable than me can explain why
Yeah most level 2 chargers are up to 50amp. So you would have charge at 30 amps at least to make it worth it, on 240v. Any lower and you might as well just use a 110v charger. Definitely correct for your family member. Not worth risking blowing the breaker all the time if you don’t have the amps.
Absolutely not true. It’s much easier to think in terms of wattage (voltage x amps).
Most US houses don’t have 120V circuits rated for more 20amps (15A is the most common). Say you have a 20A circuit so you can safely pull around 17amps.
120V x 17amps = 2040W, which is going to take a VERY long time to charge modern EVs.
240V x 17amps = 4080W, which is on the slow side of level 2 charging, but still double the output of 120V.
Even a low-amperage 240V outlet is better than a 120V circuit unless you have extremely oddball high-amperage 120V circuits.
I see what your saying and your right. 240v is going to almost always be better than 110v charging. I had a look at my breaker board. My 240v breakers range from 40amps for the dryer and oven to 60amps for the air conditions. Every house is different, but automatically assuming that it will cost tens of thousands to add a charger is the point I wanted to make. I bungled it up a bit and appreciate the feed back cause you are right.
Depending on where your AC compressor is, and whether you need AC at night, you could “unplug” (probably more complicated) the AC and plug in the EV for a few hours and voila!
My house has a 240V outlet behind the gas dryer, so, unused. This is right next to the garage. If I ever decide to get an EV, I will repurpose that outlet.
People always say, “…which is going to take a VERY long time…” but they forget to add, “…from empty.”
Say you drive a garbage EV that gobbles up 500W-h per mile. You have an average commute of 42 miles per day. 42 miles divided by 2 miles per kW-h = 21kW-h to recharge.
21kW-h takes 11:40 to come out of a standard 120v outlet. That feels like a long time, but if you get home and plug in at 6pm and don’t leave the next morning until 7am, your car has been fully charged and waiting for over an hour. This describes my exact scenario; dailying an EV with only a 120v outlet for charging wouldn’t slow me down at all.
Please note that I modified the charge rate slightly, as American outlets are generally rated for only 15 amps continuous, not 17. So my time estimate is a bit more pessimistic – and still sufficient for the typical daily driver, especially one in a big heavy EV gobbling up the gigawatts.
In the event you can only get by with a 240v 30a circuit like for a dryer, that’s still 4x faster than a single outlet. Your car would be fully charged by bedtime.
Eh, that’s assuming charging is 100% efficient and continuous though, which it isn’t. At the best of times (mild weather, start charging around 20%), I see a charge rate on a 120V outlet of about 1.2kW with the dual volage portable charger that came with the car. I just did a test in my garage, and with my car at 75% charge and that 1.2kW charge rate, it’s estimating over 26 hours to charge to 100% (adding a little over 22kW in the process). I have no special charge rate or time of use limits set. Granted, that’s hardly a scientific test, and there are a lot of variables that go into charge rates, but still goes to show how far off realistic charge rates are from ideal.
Real story: We rented a house for a winter trip and drove our EV. Temperatures averaged around 15F most of the trip. I could park the car in an insulated garage, but it was still probably in the high 30s in the garage. I plugged in to a 120V outlet overnight at about 15% charge and saw the next morning the charge was only 17%. The vast majority of the charger wattage was being used solely to heat the batteries and keep them warm enough to charge effectively.
That right there convinced me 120V charging wouldn’t work and I’ve never used it since. At home I have a 48A 240V charger on a 60A dedicated circuit. Since the charger is right next to my panel, and my house already has a 200A panel, it was only a couple hundred bucks for an electrician to add the circuit on top of the $600 charger.
My home charger will fully charge the car from dead in about 10 hours, but in reality it’s usually around 20% when I plug it in so it’s closer to 7-ish hours. Either way, it’s always fully charged in the morning.
It gets better than that. a 240V breaker takes 2 slots, so it can effectively provide 17 amps from each one, or a total of ~35 amps (for this comparison – it’ll usually let you provide 50-60 amps from a 240 breaker.) So you get 4x the power from a 240 outlet as you can get from 1 120 outlet.
Like my hot tub – it can run on either 120 or 240. On 120 it uses about 1500 watts for the heater, and can only run the jets on high if the heater is off. On 240 the heater uses 6000 watts and can run the jets at the same time.
That’s kind of odd. I could see it with a 120V TT30 RV outlet where you only get 2.4KW (or maybe even ~1.3KW), but a 240V RV outlet is going to be 50A nominal and 40A usable for ~9.6KW of charging. L2 chargers are either 40A (needs 50A circuit) or 48A (needs 60A circuit), but most of the time the 48A ones can just be capped at a lower amperage via a setting.
Personally, unless it was a very short run where I could do it relatively cheaply as a “while I’m at it”, I wouldn’t bother upgrading a 50A outlet to 60A for an EVSE. It’s going to fully charge overnight either way.
I think it’s the installation cost of the charger that’s the problem for many people. Sure, if you have your electrical panel in the garage it’ll be reasonable cheap, but any other option (carport, driveway, etc.) is going to cost a lot more to install. That’s if you have room in your panel for another 240V breaker.
I recently rented a Tesla Model 3 for a 1,000 mile road trip. I enjoyed driving it, but Supercharger stations were surprisingly expensive ($0.44/kwh) compared to the cost of charging at home ($0.08/kwh). We ended up spending about $100 to charge during the trip, although that number doesn’t account for free charging at the VRBO where we stayed. A 40 mpg car (like our 2018 Camry) would have cost us about $125 in gas ($5.00/gallon in CA at the time), so it’s not like the Tesla saved us much money in fuel costs.
I came back from the trip with a few thoughts. One, driving electric is really fun and I would absolutely consider buying one. Two, the cost of public charging is (in my view) unreasonably expensive which negates much of the upside of owning a cheap car (the theoretical cheaper running costs). I foresee a world where charging stations are plentiful but still expensive, EV station owners, like gas station owners, will be sure to price gouge where they can.
Third, I think that manufacturers should focus on cheap EVs. $30k or less before tax credits would be perfect. I like driving electric and would consider buying one, but not as an only car. I understand that not everyone can feasibly own multiple vehicles, but a cheap electric car for daily driving– commuting, running errands, etc.– would be perfect. This would keep the miles off my larger gas powered vehicles which are ideal for road trips, hauling the entire family around, and other tasks. Cheap at-home charging would save me a lot of money on gas each month. I really am coming to view electric as part of the overall solution to improving global admissions, not as the panacea.
I build a lot of things and as much as I swear at tools with cords, it’s the damn battery powered stuff that’s far more frustrating and I swear I’ve seen no benefit from going to li-ion except they’re a little lighter, like I GAF when it dies in the middle of something. Result is that I have a lot of long extension cords for the real tools. This doesn’t add much to the EV conversation, I just wanted to rant about tools. Oh, wait, I can add that this is why I like the idea of a hybrid instead.
This tracks. I have a lovely garage, and I would consider an EV, but my house is 40+ years old, and so is the power. Installing a circuit for an electric car charger requires retrofitting my entire power panel, at a cost of about $12,000–and that’s not counting the actual EV charger.
So no EV in my future.
Are you sure? Assuming you can get 1KW/hr and 3mi/KW that’s 500 miles per week you’d be able to recharge using only 110V if it was plugged in the whole time. I have a friend that commutes 180 miles per week, drives another 40 or so for errands, just got an EV in March, and decided NOT to upgrade their garage to 240V or install a charger. Plugging in with a 110V outlet is more than enough to cover their usage, but they’re near the limit of what 110V can do. Also they have a second car for longer trips / emergencies which kind of makes them into the perfect ev-owning household.
Agreed. Actually a PHEV is the perfect case, as I’ve only ever charged my Clarity and S60 in via 110V and they’re full every morning.
I don’t know where you live, but I just got a new panel installed (200 amp, up from 100 amp) and I was quoted $4k from several different electricians. I ended up gutting the 60+ year old house and had it rewired from scratch, including a new panel, but even that only cost me $12,500.
Upgrading our main panel, in California, to 100A service was $5000. Not sure where you live, but $12K sounds really, really high.
He might need better service from the street which would add a lot of cost. Or maybe his panel is grandfathered on an older building code and changing anything would require a lot of upgrades. So while $12K sounds like a lot, it might be accurate.
Yes, this is correct. Doing anything to the panel, in my jurisdiction, requires pulling everything up to the most recent Code. So I essentially need new service entrance, new panels, new breakers, etc.
I just did this a year ago and did all that. Breakers, panel, relocation, migrate the old meter to the new installation, new mast and it was $5K. I just got a bid to replace a slightly larger panel here at our new home, with more circuits and it was the same price.
It all had to be to code. $12K is really surprising. Thanks for sharing.
Our next car will not be an EV for much of the reasons listed. . .
1) Can not charge at home. (We own a house, but the typical 100A service to the house is not going to handle charging the car on top of the other electrical loads.)
2) Range. I am traveling hours away and back in a single day. Charging time is not practical. Plus, public Charging infrastructure is lacking.
3) I am concerned about cold weather performance.
4) I also have environmental concerns about what it takes to harvest and manufacture the batteries. Add to that, a recycling system for these batteries that is still figuring itself out.
That said, I am not an EV hater, they just don’t work for us. That said, I am considering a hybrid for our next car. Or a miata. . .cause, well. . .I am commenting on an automotive site.
That said, our truck will stay ICE, as EV’s just don’t the the energy storage capacity for heavy loads or towing.
I think either 1 or 2 by itself would be not a big deal, but the two combined is definitely a problem. L1 charging gets you pretty far if your commute is short/average, and leaving every morning with a full “tank” is nice for long trips if you have L2.
Cold weather’s usually manageable for models with a heat pump. Especially if you have L2 charging at home and can preheat in the morning. Honestly, the ability to preheat in the garage while plugged in is an underrated benefit of BEV/PHEV.
Number 4 is honestly mostly FUD. Or at least, it seems a bit selective/irrational to be deeply concerned about lithium extraction but totally unconcerned with significantly-worse petroleum extraction.
Towing… is going to be the hard one for EVs. Even solid-state batteries and pull-through chargers with really high charge rates are going to be a bit inconvenient, and today even the best options are sort of marginal. You can have a reasonable price, reasonable payload, or reasonable range. Pick one, maybe one and a half. Ramcharger’s got almost the right idea, other than having a weirdly large battery and kind of a cobbled-together ICE generator.
Regarding reason #4 – You have environmental concerns about mining and manufacturing of EV batteries? A major component being lithium, do you have similar concerns about other lithium based battery products? For example, smartphone, Bluetooth earbuds, laptops, tablets, power tools, cameras, battery banks, smart watches as well as used in making glass and other items: https://www.grandviewresearch.com/static/img/research/global-lithium-market.png.
Those other sources make up a greater source of lithium use than EV’s. Do you give the same consideration to the purchase of a new smart phone/tablet/laptop every few years?
Additionally, how does extraction/manufacturing of batteries compare to oil and gasoline products?
If you don’t have a place to charge at home or work, EVs don’t make much sense. But if you do, then gas or even PHEVs don’t offer the utility of an EV. I plug in at work and pretty much everything in my metropolis is within a 200 mile range. So my tank is almost always full. Cost is about 20 cents a kw, which puts my fuel cost comparison at 70 mpg, assuming fuel at $4/gallon. Gas is usually a little cheaper, but my miles per kilowatt hour range is usually a little higher, so that’s a reasonable figure. And I connect to power faster than a Formula One pitstop. I’ve only had my EV a month, but at this point there is no one more religious than a convert.
Affordability is a big part. One of the reasons I pulled the trigger on a Model Y was the subsidized 0.99% financing offer. That’s really cheap money. It did a wonderful job knocking down the payment.
As far as the affordability argument is concerned, its not so much that BEVs need to be more affordable in a vacuum but affordable relative for what is offered in terms of features, quality–and especially in the U.S.–size. Cost parity has to go hand-in-hand with size and vehicle class parity. Explaining how affordable a sub-compact Chevy Bolt or base model Equinox EV can be after tax credits to someone in the market for a mid-size or larger family vehicle is a tough sell.
I think buyer interest in battery-only evs has peaked in the US and is starting to decline. At least as long as gas is 3 bucks a gallon. Tesla went from the sedan for the cool kids to recreating the Aztek as a pickup truck. It’s going to take a lot more government intervention via mandates and incentives to move the market.
I’m a firm resident of PHEV camp. This past week we took the S60 Recharge on a 2300 mile road trip through New Mexico.
Of all the hotels we stayed at, zero had charging onsite, or nearby. Day 1 and the last day were both over 500mi travel days through west Texas, a recharge desert. Also managed to take a couple of wrong roads (don’t get me started about paper maps v. GPS) and had to do 150 miles round trip wrong direction.
If we were full EV most of the trip wouldn’t have been possible, and definitely would have taken multiple days more.
Sometimes the ability to just go wherever you want without needing a logistics certificate has a lot of value.
Hey I resemble this article. I bought an F150 Lightning, having never owned an EV. I love(d) it, but Ford is buying it back due to a backordered part that put me in Lemon Law territory. Now I have to decide if I am going to buy another EV, and all the compromises of an EV are really part of the decision this time. I fit the demo of someone who can live with an EV: I own a home, I have a charger installed, I almost never need to use a DCFC, and the range works for my uses.
However, if there wasn’t USD$9500 in free federal and state money I would not consider another Lightning. Otherwise they are just too expensive, and for 2024 Ford isn’t selling the “cheap” Pro to non-fleet customers. The upper trim models, which Ford leans heavily into, have horrific resale value. I usually don’t worry much about resale, but it’s hard to drive a car knowing you lost your ass on it.
Anyway, yeah. This data makes some sense to me.
That “free” money came from your neighbors, some of whom probably can’t afford most TVs even with a subsidy.
In the US, if they are that poor, they’re not paying any federal income tax. Payroll taxes, yes, but those go into Social Security.
“TV” was supposed to be “EV”.
I get your point, but TVs are probably not the best example as they’re extraordinarily cheap today. I saw some on clearance for about $150 at Walmart a few months back. No-name brand, but whatever. If you look back at what they cost historically, it’s incredible and even the small ones are huge with capabilities unimaginable 25 years ago. Growing up, the TV I first watched was about 20″ and set into a giant console probably 6′ across (tough to say as I was a lot smaller then and not a great estimator of size, but it was not small). A low definition display today would be 4k in comparison to that thing. Our first new TV was a “decent sized” 26″. I can’t recall what it cost (my father always made everyone aware what something cost), but the VCR we got at the same time was $600 or about $2k in today’s money. Anyway, as Joe L mentioned, if someone can’t afford that, they’re not paying income tax.
Sorry, “TV” was a typo, supposed to be “EV.”
Sorry all, “TV” should be “EV.”
That’s one way to look at it
Funny, so many commenters decry the charging problem, but it’s the third ranked one here from actual owners! I don’t count the second one, because if you buy an EV with out at-home charging, well, surely you knew that before the purchase.
You seem to be overestimating the intelligence of a lot of Americans.
One thing cities(especially tourist locations) need to figure out is that people want to charge somewhere they actually want to go, not at some random gas station or shopping mall. When a small town has an EV charger downtown, it puts it on the map for us to stop, charge and spend some money there. On the flip side is places like Paso Robles, where we looked at cool places to stop downtown, realized there were no chargers and so only made a quick stop and moved on to the gas station at the edge of town that had a DCFC.
I’m waiting a few years…for the Rivian R3X!
Same; I really hope things go well for Rivian because goddamn, yo
Though this does break down the numbers. Using anything from Mckinsey should probably be taken with a grain of salt. As they do stuff like this- https://www.propublica.org/article/new-york-city-paid-mckinsey-millions-to-stem-jail-violence-instead-violence-soared. And being that world’s 2nd largest oil producer, has a let’s call it close relationship- https://www.ft.com/content/908b1883-f4de-4d53-bfee-acdc01602223. And they have been known to take some shady steps to keep there plan with the House of Saud, Exxon etc. moving- https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2023/11/08/companies/mckinsey-climate-change-whistleblowers/.
Unless Mckinsey let’s me see a video evidence of every person asked, I wouldn’t trust a word they say. They’ve earned it.
Solid take. My company has used McKenzie as a contractor several times. It never felt right forever that’s worth… For me ICE and hybrid are the way to go for now.
John Oliver’s McKinsey expose was a great watch… look it up if you haven’t seen it!
The important thing is to understand that they’re a consulting company, not an academic institution. They’re paid to reach a conclusion, not find the answers. So the real question is, who funded the study?
Not only are “the EVs are too damn expensive” right now, but the depreciation is eye-watering! It’s a double whammy.
I love the idea of an EV, but holy crap, why should I, as a rational consumer, take a financial bath “to save the planet?”
To be clear, I care deeply about the planet but bankrupting myself ain’t helping it.
There is *so much* that needs to be worked out at a macro level (in the US, and apparently also Australia and Brazil) with EVs before they make sense for mainstream buyers … as the McKinsey report essentially shows with these %s Matt’s reporting on.
That’s why I’d just lease. This way, the depreciation hopefully wouldn’t hurt so much, and it contributes to the used market.
Yes, that’s true, but depreciation has only become a factor since people started going through cars like cell phones. If you keep the car for 10 years, depreciation has flatlined by that point regardless of the curve slope. My parents always bought their cars new then drove them until the wheels fell of, so I picked up the same habit for my daily driver, but cycle through older weekend fun cars that already hit their value floor years ago.
Now granted, early EVs like the 2011-2012 Leafs had battery issues that prevented many of them from lasting 10 years, but that’s resolved in current EVs.
Barring it completely falling to pieces for some reason, I’m keeping my Mach-E for at least 10 years. We’re up to 6 years on our Leaf, and we’ll keep that until the Rivian R2 comes out, so pretty close to 10 years.
I don’t entirely believe that more range, and a lower cost combined are needed to increase sales. Current range of all EVs on the market isn’t terrible, most to all are above 220 mile, but the price for those limitations are too high. If current EVs with 300 or less miles or range actually had price parity with ICE equivalents(without gov’t rebates) people would be able to see the EVs savings immediately, and more would sell. But because the average EV price is about 60K, it takes to long to see the savings for most people. If prices remain flat, or increase, then range needs to increase a lot.
Charging infrastructure is also a barrier for many people at this moment, and because of that there is a large group of people that won’t consider them simply because of accessibility, lower prices/more range won’t likely persuade these people, but seeing charging stations where they park might.
Charging infrastructure and share time are my biggest reason why I won’t bother. I can install a charger (although I suspect looking at my electrical it won’t be cheap) but take road trips and don’t want to have to find a charger and sit (maybe at some place in the middle of nowhere) for a long time. However, looking at a PHEV for our next car to get benefits from EV without the logistical downside.
I fully understand people who can’t charge at home wanting to switch back. When we stay at hotels or vacation rentals that don’t have charging options available, coming up with a charging plan sucks. I can’t imagine having to deal with that daily.
Our vacation rental this weekend fortunately has a DC fast charger two miles away at a grocery store.
The “how likely to switch back” question isn’t quite the same as “percentage of people planning to swap back”. Either way, for the general population who buys an EV without research and expects it to be the same as their old ICE, ~50% seems about right. For people who actually research and understand the car before buying an EV, I would think the return rate would be more like 5-10%. The population polled is going to have a lot of influence, and any number from 5%-50% is going to be accurate, for a given category of person.
Saw this recently, I’m guessing they were polling people who put their research in before buying an EV, not so much the general population- https://www.supermarketnews.com/news/some-61-electric-vehicle-owners-more-likely-shop-retailers-charging-stations
“Most current EV owners are in it for the long haul, with 87.2% of survey respondents saying they are somewhat or extremely likely to choose an EV again in the future. Only 3.3% said they were somewhat or extremely unlikely to purchase another electric vehicle.”
Interesting that the three countries that lead in percentage of EV owners who want to switch back to some version of ICE are also geographically large countries where range means something different than in small countries. I wonder how much of that is psychological?
If 99% of daily driving fits well within the capabilities of – let’s say – a 250-mile range EV, then range anxiety really shouldn’t be that much of a consideration as lots of EVs meet that criteria. You still have cost and charging ease/availability to deal with, but range anxiety shouldn’t be an issue. It’s different with tow vehicles, of course, but that’s an outlier.
In this country, in particular, we seem to go to the extreme instead of the mean when considering if an EV meets our most frequent driving needs and behaviors, aside from cost and charging issues, I mean. I wouldn’t be bothered by an EV that was limited to 100 miles of range if charging was readily available, reliable, and fast. So, for me, charging and cost would be the decision drivers, which is why, for now, I’d be more likely to buy a hybrid or PHEV.
I noticed the same thing; large countries with a lot of wide open space.
The range thing isn’t going away. Automakers keep putting out 250-300 mile cars then act surprised when people aren’t jumping at the chance to pay $60-100k for them.
People can talk all day about how it’s irrational, how 99.999999% of driving is within 100 miles, and it just doesn’t matter. People want their cars to be capable of anything they need done. That includes towing and road tripping, even if those aren’t done often. Trying to talk people out of that mindset is IMO a losing cause. Just sell longer range cars!
In a way, the industry dug this hole for themselves. They’ve been aggressively marketing fringe use cases and what-ifs to sell the more profitable SUV’s over sedans for decades, and now they can’t make EV’s that match the market they created. I say they made their bed, and now they have to lie in it.
I bet in the next few years we’ll see some aggressive backpedaling on the size wars with classic-VW-esque “think small” ads as manufacturers downsize cars to widen EV profit margins and price competitively, especially as “light truck” classing becomes obsolete, what with EV’s being immune to CAFE standards.
Alternatively – people wont adopt EV’s if it means downsizing. Maybe hybrid technology is as far as the large SUV consumer is willing to go. They will adopt EVs when it makes sense to them personally.
I agree completely with your first paragraph, and not at all with your second.
Nothing in the last century other than gas crises has been able to even temporarily get Americans out of large vehicles. Once that risk goes away with hybrids and EVs, there will be little to no incentive to buy anything small other than cost. Which typically hasn’t stopped people before. Never say never, but I’m as sure as anything about my prediction that small cars will never make a comeback here.
That’s a fair point, but I can dream that maybe one day we’ll be free of the tall-car scourge. Hopefully they at least just make them shorter, a la Toyota Crown, until eventually it’s just a bunch of liftback wagons.
For real. I would add that if an EV goes half as far as a gas car, it should cost half as much. Instead it’s the opposite!
Well said sir
Speaking from experience, Australia has had massive cost of living increases in the last couple of years including huge rate increases for electricity due to poor policy making which won’t be helping. One of the major electricity grid companies has announced they are going to start charging people for feeding rooftop solar into the grid for example. Prices per kWh of electricity to residential areas have more than doubled in two years.
Those are some pretty regressive policies. Charging people for extra electricity pumped back into the grid makes no sense. I would think that would lead to people decoupling from the grid entirely, assuming their solar equipment doesn’t belong to the power company and it provides enough power for their homes.
In the US, power companies attempted to force people to sell them their excess power (at greatly discounted rates for the power company). That’s been hit and miss since people are able to independently purchase and install solar equipment. The power companies then tried to threaten independents with disconnect from the grid if they installed their own equipment. It’s handled differently from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, which is confusing and subject to influence from lobbyists and outright corrupt operators.
Still, power has generally remained cheap here, excepting California. What’s driving the large rate increases in Australia?
A combination of things:
Australia supplies a massive amount of resources to the world, but the government has never thought of doing something like Norway or Qatar and charging royalties for export. We could easily fund anything we need from basic royalty payments.
Whew! That’s a witch’s brew of contributing factors. Here, too, the greed factor versus the public good has a tendency to snarl up the works. Solar is growing rapidly here, but it sounds as if Australia, on a per capita basis, is way ahead of America. The power companies here are terrified of what happens when everyone has self-sustaining solar and battery backups and don’t need or want their services, so they have been throwing out every anchor they can find. That old power infrastructure is going to get real expensive to maintain as customers drop off the grid, if that ever comes to pass.
Current numbers show at least 20GW of installed rooftop solar in Australia which is 11.2% of the total generation needed for the country. 3GW was installed in 2023 alone.
Charging for putting power back in?! WTF, I’d go off-grid at the point, PITA that it might be.
It’s also set up that you pay for power back to the grid during peak generation time. Off the grid would be viable if battery storage was cheaper. Getting something like a Powerwall (an easy example) could cost you $20k to do.
Most likely is that solar companies will start introducing smarter controllers that don’t pass the electricity onto the grid and just dump the excess.
A guy I knew who was off-grid used old cell site buffer batteries (they run the DC equipment in between a grid outage and the generator coming on)—huge 3V lead acid things that are traded out on a schedule rather than by failure and he could get them cheap. Of course, the cheap solution means it’s a PITA and he ended up ditching the batteries and getting reconnected. They pay for surplus electricity by law in many states, including his (Vermont), so he said between months where he got a refund and winter months where he pulled more than he generated, it was about a wash in cost for the year.
Another option would be to use a gravity storage system to store some of the excess for later use. It runs pumps to fill a raised water reservoir, which then releases to turn an electric turbine when power generation falls off. Packaging and such is a hurdle, though I imagine someone could DIY a system for cheaper than good battery storage.
Flow batteries is what I’m waiting for, for home storage solutions (that and free capital to spend). Luckily the leading chemistry of vanadium flow is an Australian innovation from the 80s that we… *checks notes*… did nothing with.
As a new EV owner, I get it.
My PHEV is perfect imo and I decided to get an EV as car #2. Overall it has been fine so far, except that I went on a 200ish mile trip over the weekend and my range is quite low remaining right now.
Had planned to charge at work today and I get there and all of the chargers are broke.
Looks like I’m going to be living night to night charging on the granny charger at home for a bit, slowly charging more than my commute is.
This is why home charging is basically a must have for EV ownership. Once you can charge a full range overnight without worry, it’s never a problem.
Some cities by us are requiring the electricians to install the chargers on all new builds.
Yeah a charger is definitely in my future planning, just annoying when the charger you have been using for the last 2.5 years with no issues on your PHEV decides it wants to stop working a week after buying a full EV haha.
I tend to think that we’re in the Blackberry phase of the transition from everybody having a RAZR to everybody having an iPhone… There’s obvious advantages for a subset of people, but there are downsides such as weight, bulk, and battery life that would more detrimentally affect your typical RAZR owner’s day to day that the ability to check your yahoo mail or geocities page doesn’t make up for. That said, the blackberry was a necessary stepping stone in getting where we are now.
I wonder if the kids today would believe that once upon a time, a Blackberry was a real status symbol and celebrities loved to show them off.
you mean the cybertruck? 🙂
Since carbon emissions are cumulative, people holding onto their current vehicles longer before getting an EV is actually good news for the planet.
Since carbon emissions are cumulative, a small improvement made early can have a bigger impact than a large improvement made too late.
We can math it out if you’d like, but the bottom line is fuel emissions are bigger than automotive manufacturing emissions. The best thing for the planet is to get gas guzzlers off the road as soon as possible — even if it means building new cars to replace them, and even if it means using stopgaps like hybrids.
Certainly someone eeking another 2 years out of their ICE then going EV is better than going PHEV and operating a compromised vehicle for 10 years.
However, my primary point is that getting additional utilty from a vehicle that is already manufactured is better than discarding it and taking the hit for the initially emissions. Plus EVs are getting cleaner in both usage and manufacturing over time so an EV two years from now is a lower emissions hit than one today.
Obviously there is a crossover somewhere. Dumping a working Prius is a bad idea. Swapping a pre-catalist 10mpg vehicle is probably worth doing any time.
Thank you for adding the needed context to this story! It really does support the conclusions we often see in the comments. Charging is the biggest barrier to EV ownership, and (for many of us) price is a problem too.