Last night was a bit of a blur. There was the Cybercab liveblog. Stellantis shook up its own leadership, but kept Carlos Tavares around for a little bit longer. Toyota returned to F1. I drank what I thought was a peppermint tea but was actually a laxative tea. It was like we had the Morning Dump last night both figuratively and literally.
I’m not going to start with any of that. Instead, I’ll skip ahead to something that caught my eye earlier this week: a bit of a palette cleanser. Americans are buying smaller cars again at rates we haven’t seen in a while, which is good news. It’s almost an accident and one I hope automakers learn from.
Palette cleansed? OK, the Cybercab. Elon Musk usually pulls these things off, somehow, though the stock is selling off this morning. Did everyone just shrug? Is that what the morning after is like? While Musk was talking about a fully autonomous universe in California, his new friend former President Donald Trump was in Detroit saying he was going to block autonomous cars. What?
Honda has a new recall for… checks notes… my car.
We Can’t Have Cheap Chinese Cars Because We’re Just Barely Getting Cheap Small Cars Here
If you want to know the real reason why we can’t have Chinese cars it’s not because of national security reasons or that country’s lead in electric cars. It’s not about forced labor or IP theft. It’s has a lot to do with protecting autoworkers. It doesn’t matter if you think that’s a good or bad thing, it’s just a reality of concentrating these folks historically in states that have huge and disproportionate importance when it comes to electoral outcomes. Though, at some level, I think it feels right that we protect autoworkers.
Automakers know this. Automakers might be arguing against tariffs on Chinese cars in Europe, but they sure as hell aren’t making that argument here. After years of making expensive, big, heavy, inflated cars it’s almost like we forgot to make cheap cars.
The market as a whole is extremely mediocre this year sales-wise, and the two big exceptions are hybrids and smaller, affordable cars. This is what’s dragging down average transaction prices despite all other inflationary pressures according to Cox Automotive:
While the Mitsubishi Mirage was the only new vehicle in the U.S. still transacting for under $20,000 in September, the overall mix of small, more affordable vehicles has been elevated for much of 2024, which is helping hold down the new-vehicle ATP. Vehicles such as the Chevrolet Trax (ATP: $25,081), Toyota Corolla (ATP: $25,535), and Hyundai Elantra (ATP: $25,902) continue to sell at a strong pace.
[…]
“One reason transaction prices are lower in 2024 is that many buyers are choosing smaller, less expensive vehicles,” noted Cox Automotive Senior Economist Charlie Chesbrough. “The subcompact and compact SUV segments are outperforming the market this year, and by no coincidence, they’re also two of the lowest-priced product segments in the market.”
While smaller, more affordable vehicles are gaining market share in 2024, other segments are shrinking. Notably, the full-size pickup truck share is lower year over year in 2024.
Did you catch that last bit? Full-sized trucks are losing market share and smaller vehicles are gaining market share. Yeah, it’s a price thing, but it’s also a product thing. The Chevy Trax is a great vehicle. As is the Toyota Corolla. It’s plenty of car for most people and, while the Chevy Trax isn’t Geo Metro small, it’s small enough.
The mix of cars mentioned is interesting as the Trax is a Korean-built car sold by an American brand and the Hyundai Elantra is a Korean brand selling an American-built car. This pattern is basically true across the market as Ford sees huge sales from its relatively small Ford Maverick, Jeep’s old-as-Moses Compass saw a sales increase of 71% year-over-year.
Just. Build. Good. Affordable. Cars. This isn’t hard.
Tesla Stock Down 8% So Far This Morning, Uber Stock Up 8%
iRobot came out 20 years ago
science fiction vs reality#iRobot $TSLA #OptimusPrime pic.twitter.com/VR75darmYR
— Adidust.eth (@dustdust213) October 11, 2024
If you want to have the best read of how Musk’s “We, Robot” event last night went you can just compare Tesla’s stock (down about 8% so far today) with Uber’s stock (up about 8% so far today). If the market believed Musk’s vision for the future, which would make Uber obsolete, was real then you’d expect the opposite to happen.
Musk’s timelines for these things are much like my daughter’s timelines for getting to bed, full of the same hopeful promises and always annoyingly over-optimistic. Or, as one Bloomberg columnist put it this morning:
And yet, for all the futurism, so much of the night’s show felt like a rerun. The caveats about schedules and the next-yearism are virtually catchphrases at this point. Musk also played many of the old hits about robotaxis being far safer than humans; how passenger vehicles today sit idle most of the time; how people will be able to fall asleep and wake up at their destination in these things. Even the dancing Optimus robots, and Musk’s claim that everyone on Earth will ultimately own one, are not new anymore.
And from our old pal Patrick at InsideEVs:
From what I could see watching from afar, the We, Robot event had a joyous feel to it—Optimus robots walking through the crowd and making drinks, Tesla’s biggest fans and supporters going for Cybercab rides and Musk himself promising a coming “age of abundance” where “anyone will be able to have any products and services they want.”
Yet that wildly optimistic tone stood in stark contrast to Musk himself as of late, who’s become the doomsday preacher of the digital age after acquiring the social media platform Twitter and transforming it into the dark fountain of misinformation and hate speech that is X.
It’s weird that the theme of this was Isaac Asimov’s I, Robot or, more accurately, the Will Smith movie version. The CEO in that movie gets killed by his own creation and we decide, as a society, that really good robots are too advanced for us. One of the videos playing inside the little cabs giving their Disney World-esque rides around the WB Studio lot was Bladerunner 2049, where the ultimate bad guy is a tech CEO trying to sell a vision of the future. Musk seems to strike me as a guy who loves the visuals of sci-fi yet seems unable to internalize any of the warnings.
Former President Trump Comes To Detroit, Says He’s Going To Stop Autonomous Cars?
TRUMP: "Other countries produced auto-mo–bile and autonomous vehicles. Do you like autonomous? Does anybody like an autonomous vehicle? You know what that is, right?"
CROWD: *one person claps* pic.twitter.com/68y8nP5sIl
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 10, 2024
You have almost certainly already made up your mind about the election and nothing you’re going to read on a car blog is going to change that, nor is that our mission around here. But the former President speaking before business leaders in Detroit about the car industry is news.
It was, uh, interesting:
From Crain’s Detroit Business:
He promised a car industry “renaissance, the likes of which we have never seen before,” saying he intends that triumph “to be among my greatest legacies.”
He also said if Kamala Harris wins, “the whole country will end up being like Detroit” — a negative statement the vice president’s campaign quickly amplified on social media. He later pledged the city’s “rebirth” in a second term.
Does this mean that he’s supportive of bringing back Pontiac so it can finally produce the Pontiac G8 ST? That might be a winning issue around here.
The most confusing bit, linked in this video here, is when former President Trump spoke about autonomous cars:
“Do you like autonomous? Does anybody like an autonomous vehicle? Know what that is? Right? When you see a car driving along? Some people do, I don’t know. A little concerning to me, but the autonomous vehicles we’re going to stop from operating”
I think what he’s saying is that he’s going to stop autonomous cars from other countries, though his speech has been harder to follow lately. He also added that he wanted to make interest from car loans tax deductible, which would “revolutionize” the industry.
Honda Recalling 1.7 Million Vehicles Over Worm Gear
It finally happened. I bought the Honda CR-V Hybrid mostly for life reasons, but also to have something to write about and now I do! It’s being recalled!
According to the NHTSA report, the recall stems from an improperly produced steering gearbox worm wheel, causing excessive internal friction in the vehicles. That friction can cause a feeling of “sticky feeling” when turning the steering wheel.
“Increased friction between the worm gear and worm wheel can increase steering effort and difficulty, increase the risk of crash or injury,” according to the NHTSA report.
Well, that’s not good. For the record, I haven’t noticed this issue as my car is quite new.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
For all of my love of pop music and female pop vocalists, Christina Aguilera doesn’t usually pop up in my recommendations. The only reason I heard “Haunted Heart” is that she wrote this song for the Addams Family animated movie and it was on a Halloween mix. How did I not know this song? It goes almost too hard. Christine has pipes and bars.
The Big Question
Can Detroit beat the Guardians and make the ALCS to face the Yankees? Or, if you don’t like sportsball, are you going to watch the NASCAR Roval race this weekend? If you also don’t watch car racing, what are you doing this weekend?
I like big cars. I like small cars. I like pickup trucks. I like sedans. I like SUV’s. I like manual transmissions, I like automatics. Just give me the choice!
You have almost certainly already made up your mind about the election….. but how else shall I get the attention I so desperately crave, if I don’t go around proclaiming myself as “undecided” – pay attention to ME
Please Honda bring back the Fit and give us the hybrid too
My work has a new Trax, and I’ve gotta be honest… I hate it a lot less than I expected to.
I would have 0 confidence in its reliability long term if it were my own car, but it’s a whole lot less bad than the old Trax was.
My biggest complaints are that the seats are less comfortable than I’d hope, and notably worse than our also-base-model Colorado, and GM’s radio software seems glitchy (a problem in both it and the Colorado), and I frequently have audio issues with Bluetooth.
You caused the recall. Not really I am joking. Auto Manufacturers ramped up SUV prices and now cheap sedans are making a comeback? Color me not surprised. I also think much like every thing else whatever the parents do the kids rebel. So yes sedans are becoming popular again. Until today’s kids become parents and their ungrateful little Baystars start wanting SUVs or Model Ts because their parents hated them or owned them. It certainly doesn’t hurt that the remaining sedan builders make a reliable car that won’t break a young persons pocketbook. I would love to see a poll that asked all rich car people if they maintain a Toyota, Honda or other reliable car in their garage for when they need a reliable vehicle. I know most of our afficiando writers here do.
“what I thought was a peppermint tea but was actually a laxative tea.”
That’s why I drink coffee, you don’t have to decide between laxative coffee and non-laxative coffee becauseit just figures that out for you.
Yes – Smaller cars are more affordable.
But smaller cars are also now the size of what their larger counterparts were just a few models back. Because bloat.
The Civic is the size of an old Accord.
The Elantra is the size of an old Sonata.
The Sentra is the size of an old Stanza.
Jetta is the size of an old Passat
(And at the luxury end- the 3 Series is the size of an old 7, the E Class is larger than the first S Class…)
But where are the cars that are the size of old Civics, Sentras, Corollas and Golf/Jettas?
Oh – just China, the EU, Central and South America…
When a small car becomes medium or big they leave a gab in the market, the company make a new model to fill that gab, or at least they used to do that, i see some people argue that safety is the main reason why cars getting larger and i’m not convinced, automakers can make small cars but choose not to because it’s not profitable enough for them.
Yes – Lots of those cars are out there;
VW Polo
Honda City, Brio, Jazz/Fit/Life
Hyundai Accent, i20 and i10
Nissan Versa and Note
Toyota Starlet, Yaris, Wigo and Aqua.
How many of these are sold in the US?
We get the Versa, but that’s it.
> gab
That’s cute. 😀 German?
Not here because over regulation by the Proletariat. Just sarcasm not meaning it literally just joking
Sounds familiar but I can’t quite put a face to the name…
Also, don’t know if it’s just me but both links go to the same Bloomberg article.
The Tigers have grit. They can win this. Go Tigers!
Also wishing you well, however empty a few keystrokes feel.
Sticking steering recall!! Hell in my day you shrugged and went on with your day knowing that the manufacturer would only laugh at you for saying it was a safety issue they needed to fix.
Many a cold morning I drove my early 80s GM car out my driveway, across the road, into the ditch, over part of my neighbor’s yard, back into the ditch and onto the road. Once you cycled the steering rack back and forth a half dozen times, it generally started working sorta correctly. It had to be cold, but even then, it worked sometimes. I think the higher the engine RPMs, the more likely the valves in the rack would bind up. I could have replaced the rack, but they weren’t cheap. Filling in the ruts in the neighbor’s yard was easier to do than find that kind of money.
I have this issue with my Z4, but only when it’s hot outside. BMW never bothered to recall the cars.
Hoping watch a good chunk of the Petit Le Mans at Road Atlanta. Go Pipo and Go Cadillac!
Small cars are starting to kill it. The CX-30 has grown in sales every single year it’s been on sale. From what I could find, it’s matched last years sales totals with a full quarter to go. Updates since launch? uhhh, a slightly wider screen. That’s it. Selling like hot cakes. It’s great, I’m biased since I own a 2022 Turbo, but it’s really a great car.
I’m hoping (since they’re using Toyota’s hybrid systems) that they do what Toyota won’t and put either the hybrid or PHEV in the Mazda3/CX-30 platform.
I like proper small hatches and want a hybrid/PHEV option aside from the Niro (and no; the current Prius, while being a very nice car, just isn’t the same).
It would be great, but I doubt it would fit in the current gen. It’s a fairly tightly packaged car as is, although ditching the spare tire entirely might find enough space for a battery. I’d be absolutely stunned if the next generation CX-30 does not have a hybrid option with effectively a prius powertrain in a few years. Mazda styling/ergonomics with a toyota hybrid system is about as good as I think it could get on the cheap/small end of the market.
It would no doubt require a significant refresh but possibly not a full redesign. As I recall, the PHEV battery is about the size of 3 standard 12V batteries and the hybrid transaxle (eCVT) is basically the size of a standard transmission. Your comment about removing the spare tire would go a long way toward accomodating it.
On a side note, I’m pretty annoyed Toyota doesn’t even offer a standard hybrid in the Corolla Hatch (I actually quite like the look of them) when they have offer it for the Corolla sedan. All I can think of is they want to protect the Prius.
I someone held a gun to my head and forced me to buy a small crossover to replace my Golf, I’d probably go with a CX-30. The one I had as a rental in Chicago a year ago was brilliant, and I loved almost everything about it.
Anything is possible. Should have asked if it is probable.
No. I grew up in San Antonio. I have no further interest in rednecks driving in circles. Saw enough of that on 410.
DUDE! You went to UT! What the hell are you doing wasting time on baseball?!? It’s Red River Rivalry tomorrow!!! Hook ‘Em!!!
The fat Boomers are dying off?
More likely everyone is feeling the pinch from multiple year of inflation, but the increased interest rates intended to curtail said inflation is working well enough that it makes it hard to stomach 7-10 percent on Basic- Meh vehicle new cars starting over 40K.
This skinny Boomer has always prefered small cars. I only there were good options available. A Chevy Trax or CX30 are not small, even if they are somewhat compelling. I’m hoping my Fit will last until the end of my driving days.
OI! I like small cars, am a boomer and I have large bones that are well padded.
Agree with the title of the article, I just bought a 1999 Miata Supercharged with 34K miles, pristine. This thing is diabolical. Make small cars great again.
At this point Trump has devolved into the crazy old guy standing on the street corner talking and shouting about random, not so connected things.
Anyone else that sounded half as crazed and stupid would have even his supporters calling them an idiot. I feel like we’re living in one of those times people in the future will ask, “WTF was wrong with them? How did that happen?” And, of course, it will just be dismissed as an aberration or half-assed “he was very charismatic” explanation when there’s no obvious charisma to see on the old videos until the rise of another narcissistic idiot inevitably happens again. I kind of hope AI takes over.
Idiocracy truly is a prophecy.
Isn’t Trump a Peter Thiel, Steve Bannon, Muskrat, and other tech bro wind up AI prototype?
You assume that there would be no batshit crazy yet oddly compelling AI spouting hatred-filled nonsense to dazzle and degrade the chips ‘n’ code of the artificial masses. Given the ingenuity of programmers, the technocraticly oligarchic views of the Silicon Valley elite and the fact that human intelligence is and will be the first model for AI to emulate, I wouldn’t be so sure about that. Maybe it gets better after a generation or two when humanity is reduced to just something the robots feed grapes to as we sprawl across a chaise lounge to keep us out of the way and too occupied to fuck things up.
I was hoping they’d wipe us out, but you make a good point about their originators. Crap in = crap out.
The issue isn’t the leader, nor that AI would very likely emulate that craziness.
The issue is that half the population doesn’t recognize senile bat-shit crazy hate filled nonsense, or if they do, they see it as a sign of greatness.
Trump thinks he’s Tony Soprano but he’s really Uncle Junior.
Nah, he’s Janice – annoying as hell and everyone connected to her is worse off for it.
I’m re-watching the show and hate watching her move in on Bobby Bacala after his wife dies.
I don’t understand how the Aida Turturro didn’t win ALL the awards for her portrayal of Janice. Every time she was on screen my skin would crawl.
. . . and the way she manipulates Bobby’s kids. As despicable a character as any on the Sopranos.
At this point?
BTW, Mr. Trump already negotiated this with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which replaced NAFTA. It became law in 2020. Trumpeted as a great victory, it’s impact on US auto manufacturing is mixed at very best. It’s up for a process of review beginning in 2026, but that would introduce uncertainty and business hates uncertainty. It is not, however, subject to change by imperial fiat, despite that talking and shouting.
“Trade Fact of the Week: U.S. auto production unchanged since ‘USMCA’ replaced ‘NAFTA’ in 2020.
By: Ed Gresser / 05.15.2024FACT: U.S. auto production unchanged since ‘USMCA’ replaced ‘NAFTA’ in 2020.
https://www.progressivepolicy.org/blogs/trade-fact-of-the-week-u-s-auto-production-unchanged-since-usmca-replaced-nafta-in-2020/
“The model also indicated that the ROOs increased the cost of producing light vehicles in the United States. The higher costs of U.S. vehicle production increased U.S. sales of imported light vehicle models from the rest of the world. Lower tariff preference utilization reduced U.S. imports of light vehicles from Canada and Mexico. These economic effects were concentrated in the automotive industry and had a negligible economy-wide impact. Production, trade, employment, and investment data trends from 2018 to 2022 showed few signs of changes in the overall competitiveness of the U.S. automotive industry after USMCA’s entry into force in 2020. Production shutdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic and semiconductor chip shortages were likely the main factors in the aggregate declines in U.S. vehicle and parts production in 2020 and 2021 that occurred despite the positive estimated impact of the ROOs on U.S. production described above.”https://www.usitc.gov/press_room/news_release/2023/er0630_64076.htm
“However, for the period July 2020 through December 2022 the report finds the following impacts.
– Vehicle manufacturers and suppliers report that the ROOs have increased costs at multiple stages of the supply chain but have also increased the U.S. share of USMCA vehicle and parts production.
– U.S. imports of engines and transmissions fell and U.S. revenues, employment, wage payments, and capital expenditures related to light vehicle and automotive parts production increased.
– The ROOs increased the cost of producing light vehicles in the U.S., which in turn increased U.S. sales of light vehicle models imported from the rest of the world.
https://www.strtrade.com/trade-news-resources/str-trade-report/trade-report/july/usmca-auto-rules-of-origin-have-increased-costs-report-finds
Hasn’t he always done that. I don’t recall him ever being particularly coherent.
The Trax is a massive improvement over the last one and that’s got to be helping sales. Last one looked like a dorky, POS penalty box, The other day, I was behind a new one in a decent green and thought it was a Blazer that seemed smaller than I thought. Saw it was the Trax and was quite impressed. Sure, I’ve seen photos and articles, but blah, blah, blah the new CUV WTF, that shit goes right through me like last night’s curry. In person, it looks like a much better car for the money than the last one. When you heard the low price on the last one, you’d (well, me, anyway) probably still think they overpaid, but this one impressed me enough to look it up out of curiosity and they start at $20k. Sure, probably nobody’s buying strippers, but at the mid $20s ATS, that still seems like a good deal. Don’t know about that tiny engine and I’m not a fan of undersized turbo engines for longevity, but my point is that it at least looks like a good value.
Having recently shopped for a truck, that’s because trucks have gotten too damn expensive. Part of that is inflation (I about fell over when I saw what the inflation-adjusted price of my old truck was), but that’s not all. Ram in particular has jacked the prices of their trucks through the roof, and Ford’s not much better, especially if you want any niceties like a heated steering wheel. It’s pretty clear that the manufacturers got high on the pricing power they had during the pandemic and are reluctant to give it up now that things are back to (more) normal.
Yeah, I’m going to go with the Fiero as priority #1 😉
This weekend is Thanksgiving in Canada because Turkey and Spooky belong in the same month. It also gives us a month break in between turkey feasts.
So I’ll be consuming all of the pumpkin pie, possibly dressed as David S. Pumpkins.
Any questions?
Have Canadian wife and will be doing the same, except for the dressing up as Davis S Pumpkins. I scare the kids enough as is…
Turkey and pumpkin pie, yay! I don’t have to dress up to scare people. Kids for some reason aren’t scared of me.
I wish you all the best.
Been through a few myself. Never fun at all.
And really sorry about FEMA. After Hurricane Ivan, 2004, they just showed up a couple days later. No phone call needed. At the very least FEMA needs an automated phone response that takes your name and contact number, and promises to call you back asap.
Not all that hard to figure out, but?
It’s tough to get a good take on the situation with the TV media. Not enough detailed reporting, just what’s “easy” and not to far from the hotel please.
Again best to you all there.
Watching both NASCAR races this weekend.
Detroit vs Yankees please.
I had a newer Civic as a rental car last month on vacation and it had the “sticky” steering. Glad to see its being recalled as it definitely didn’t feel right. Never felt like I was gonna crash, but was annoying.
How much cognitive dissonance can build up before it explodes? Says he’ll ban autonomous cars while the king of autonomous cars jumps up and down and spills money all over him. Yeah, right.
We may find out in November. I’m having an existential crisis just thinking about the possibility. By the way, are you related to the Beranek of BBN? Just curious.
Uh, who? Bible Broadcasting Network?
Ah, the acusticist. Yes, if you go back to Bohemia, but no, cuz I’m adopted.