While I can easily imagine a world in which I bump into George Clooney and casually mention I’m working on a trio of one-act plays about Harry Truman and I think he’d be perfect for the lead role and he decides he has to do it, I have a harder time imagining being as wealthy and fashionable as Clooney. The whole Lake Como-in-a-wooden boat thing is too abstract from my daily existence. It’s why I hadn’t quite understood the appeal of luxury apartments with automaker branding, but a recent interview made it suddenly make perfect sense to me.
Well, sort of. If I had $15 million I don’t think I’d buy an apartment in Miami or Dubai. I’d buy a piece of land and build a rallycross track and spend some of that on cars, but that kind of thought process is maybe why I don’t have $15 million to spare.
You know who might? The CEO of Carvana and his dad. Collectively they made $11 billion on a Carvana stock rebound. I bet you didn’t see that happening. What you might have seen happen if you read these pages is that hybrid sales are doing extremely well, especially at Ford.
And, finally for our last bit of news in The Morning Dump, will we reach a point in the market where there’s an equal mix of new vehicle registrations by gas, ICE, and hybrid cars? It’s an important question.
Happy Friday, let’s Dump.
The Simple Reason Why You’d Buy A Porsche, Bentley, Or Aston Martin Apartment
The preponderance of real estate in Miami that’s being branded by automakers is kinda stunning. It seems like every week a new luxury tower from one automaker or another is being opened.
In fact, just this week Aston Martin Residences Miami opened. The 66-story Aston Martin building is actually the tallest all-residential building south of New York and contains 391 luxury apartments.
From an Aston Martin release:
Designed in collaboration between Aston Martin’s esteemed design team and world-leading architect Rodolfo Miani of Bodas Mian Anger (BMA), the condominiums and amenity spaces are encased in a bold sail-shaped building reflecting the marina setting and offering breathtaking panoramic views of Biscayne Bay, the Miami River and the dynamic city skyline, providing an ever-changing, immersive backdrop that reflects Miami’s tropical environment.
Seeking to exude the spirit and thrilling feeling of Aston Martin’s sports cars as soon as you walk into the entrance lobby, Aston Martin Residences Miami showcases the British marque’s design DNA and precision craftsmanship, which radiates throughout its breathtakingly beautiful common areas, which were carefully designed at the brand’s state-of-the-art design studio in Gaydon, Warwickshire.
The place looks like it fits the brand and comes with all sorts of amenities:
Highlight features adorned throughout the building include doors with bespoke artisan Aston Martin handles, number plinths, and kestrel tan leather door tabs. Residents can relax and unwind just steps from their front doors, with 42,275 square feet of outstanding “Sky Amenities” all painstakingly designed by Aston Martin.
Spanning four full levels between the building’s 52nd and 55th floors – all interconnected by a monumental and striking glass staircase – standout amenities consist of a two-floor fitness centre with views of the awe-inspiring Atlantic Ocean, an art gallery, two movie theatres, a virtual golf simulator, business centre and conference room, kids playroom, as well as a full-service spa, beauty salon and barber shop.
That sounds nice! I mean, the main reason someone might want to live in one of these places is that they’re super luxurious and comfortable. Who wouldn’t want to live there?
There’s obviously a much larger reason that has to do with this, which is that there are about 28,000 centi-millionaires in the world. These are people worth more than 100,000,000 dollars and, according to a consultancy that helps these rich people buy property, they:
[T]end to pursue domicile diversification to broaden their investment opportunities and business operations as well as to have location fluidity that safeguards them against risks ranging from geopolitical conflict to climate change to a viral outbreak.
Location fluidity is sometimes code for “gotta live somewhere if the totalitarian government back home that helped make me rich might decide they don’t like me or will try to tax me.” But, also, places like Miami are cool if you’re super rich… or just an ex-spy and his do-gooder pals looking to do some jobs while wearing sunglasses.
All of those reasons make sense, but there’s something that came up in a recent episode of the Odd Lots podcast that focused on luxury real estate. Here’s the transcript/recording of the episode, which features real estate media guy Hiten Samtani, who makes this point:
So there are, I think, just shy of 200 active branded condo projects in the world. Forty percent of them are in North America, and then they’re dispersed in places like Dubai, etc.
What happens, I believe, it’s connected to the initial point I made about this dispersion of global wealth. And so, a billionaire who is from New York understands 57th Street. They wouldn’t understand what Palm Jumeirah is. They might understand what Cavalli is, or Mercedes-Benz or Bugatti. So there is this coalescing around brands that are already known and you’re piggybacking off a luxury brand to create both legitimacy and exclusivity.
That’s super fascinating to me. It’s not just that someone might like Porsche or Bentley and want to be associated with that brand, it’s that if you’re rich and you’re from New York and suddenly want a place in Dubai or Sydney or wherever… how do you know what to get? How do you know you won’t get screwed by some shady builder? Simple: You go with a name you can trust.
Thus you might end up with this $15 million apartment in Porsche Design Tower, which was the original one of these places and became famous for its car elevator. For $15 million you get a four-car garage and a private pool, which ain’t bad. The price range for an Aston Martin Residence is $4-$59 million.
Some of the higher-end, as the podcast points out, might just be schnitzel measuring.
Carvana Dad Jumps From $3.1 Billion To $10.9 Billion
There are no second acts in American life my ass. Used car retailer Carvana might have gotten into trouble for expanding too fast and its business model might have stumbled during the late pandemic, which led us to exuberantly wonder what would happen if the company went out of business.
Myself included! Here’s what I wrote:
We’ve reported on the lawsuits and slumping stock price, but a Bloomberg piece from yesterday about the company’s creditors teaming up ahead of a potential debt restructuring deal has led the stock to crater. The company may not being going bankrupt tomorrow, but the wheels appear to be coming off the wagon. And if the wheels are off the deals are on, folks!
Got that one wrong. Carvana did have a rough go of it with the father-son duo of Ernie Garcia II and Garcia III seeing the company’s stock drop dramatically. The company’s Q1 financials are out and the rebound is in full effect. From Bloomberg via Automotive News:
“2022 and 2023 were a tough run for us,” Carvana CEO Ernie Garcia III said Thursday in an interview on Bloomberg TV. “When we went through that period, the team came together, we responded incredibly well and I think this quarter is undoubtedly the best quarter we’ve had in our history.”
Ernie Garcia III, 42, derives his wealth mainly from his stake in the company, which he co-founded in 2012 with his 67-year-old father, who’s also a major shareholder.
It’s truly the American Dream when someone can pick themselves up from being a single-digit billionaire to get back to 11 figures.
Ford Sales Slip, Hybrid And EV Sales Boom
Ford is one of the automakers still reporting monthly sales so it’s a good way to track the general market and, lo and behold, Ford came in down 2.4% for the month of April compared to last year. That’s pretty much where the market is on average (there’s one fewer selling day).
The biggest part of the slump comes from F-Series, which has been experiencing delays related to the company trying to ship trucks that don’t need to come back for constant recall work. The rest of the downturn comes from SUVs, with Escape winding down and the Bronco Sport stumbling.
You know what didn’t stumble? Electric cars are up 129% year-over-year as heavy discounting has made the Mach-E and F-150 Lightning extremely good deals.
Even better (by volume) are hybrids! Total hybrid sales are 59.5% month-over month, which is consistent with this year thus far. Thomas is working on a piece on Maverick sales, and that was a big part of it, but F-150 Hybrid sales also rose a whopping 94%!
The full sales release is here if you’re curious.
Will 2028 Be The Year We Hit A Perfect Market Mix?
One of my favorite things is the S&P Global Mobility forecast of nameplates, which shows that we’ll have nearly 650 nameplates by the end of the decade. That’s a wild stat!
The big reason why is that you’re going to end up with hybrid, EV, and gas versions of the same car. Hell, the Kia Niro has a gas version, a hybrid version, a PHEV version, and an EV version. It does make me wonder if this means we’ll get to a point where EVs, Hybrids, and Gas-powered cars all have equal market share.
If you look at the graphic above, S&P Mobility sees this happening around 2028, which isn’t that far away!
A Little TMD Music For Ya
I loved the original Buena Vista Social Club album when I was in high school and, when I think South Florida, this is what I think of musically (even though this music is famously Cuban).
The Big Question
Do we ever reach 33/33/33 for gas/ev/hybrid? If so, when? If not, what’s the closest we’ll get?
Images: Aston Martin, Carvana, Ford
My guess is the shift from ICE to hybrid will happen sooner than pure EV gets up to that level, so the yellow and purple lines cross well before the green line gets to that high. There won’t be a triple point, unless battery tech improves significantly (cost relative to range) in the very near future. Pure ICE’s days are numbered.
But hey, I’m not in the auto biz, so what do I know?
So buying an Aston Martin branded apartment in a foreign location is like eating at McDonald’s in a foreign location?
I’ve done both and they are surprisingly similar.
You haven’t had McDonalds till you’ve had McDonalds in Japan.
It’s WAAAAY better than any McDonalds here in the States.
Well if we are going full disclosure here how about the minority of readers hear who promoted Hybrids as the answer while a majority tried to cancel us while screaming 100%Ev is the answer?
I always thought the journalistic trashing on Akio Toyoda for his stance on EVs was absurd. And suddenly 2024 proves just how truly in touch with the market that man was.
Thanks we geniuses need to stick together.
The problem I’ve always had with Toyota’s stance on EVs was not that they were anti-EV, it’s that they were anti-EV and pro-hydrogen. I’ve said before that Toyota did the right thing by focusing on hybrids instead of EVs, while saying the wrong thing in pushing hydrogen. It’s a weird form of hypocrisy.
Wait, so these supposedly shrewd businesspeople who have made obscene amounts of money (and I mean that in every possible pejorative sense of the word), are incapable of evaluating property values without having a completely unrelated brand name attached? It’s like buying an overpriced Ferrari-branded golf bag because people who drive Ferraris also often play golf, therefore Ferrari must know a lot about golf.
You know, I’m starting to think the mega-rich might not actually be the orders of magnitude smarter than us poors that they would like us to think justifies their wealth.
No, especially based on that graph, which is assuming accelerating EV growth in what is currently a market segment headed in the opposite direction. They’re also assuming that hybrid sales will start tapering off around that same time, which I think is another over-optimistic prediction regarding the viability of full EVs.
And lest you think I’m just here to shit on someone else’s predictions, here’s mine: Hybrid sales will eclipse ICE sales long before EV sales do. I further predict that there is going to be a place for hybrids even if/when EVs do take over because there are some applications where EVs are fundamentally the wrong answer.
Sorry Ben I agree with you 100%
This. I’m happy with the BEV (soon to be BEVs) I have, but I see hybrid as being a great way to address the 250 and up class trucks and other heavy movers. Can you tow with BEV’s? If you’re patient, and some folks don’t have time. It’s pretty amazing how much efficiency hybrid adds to trucks, with a net *gain* in power.
I know we’re a drop in the north american (and global) bucket, but in Canada it’s soon going to be mandated that a percent (eventually all) vehicles must be at least PHEV.
Yeah, but the condo association fees is where they’ll get you.
My guess would be if we get to a 33% EV take rate, it comes at the expense of hybrids rather than ICE vehicles. So no, we will not see that kind of balance in the market.
I don’t think so. I think the direction Toyota is going is where the market will eventually go too–fewer and fewer pure ICE cars and more and more hybrids.
Co do Association Fees! I love it because it’s true.
I did a little more thinking about this since I used to live in a condo and the association fees were always annoying to me.
If you’re buying a $15M condo property, do you finance that? Is it similar to me putting 20% down and calculating payments? I’m guessing a lot of these guys would pay outright rather than pay all that interest. But maybe not! If you have millions lying around you can likely invest that and earn more, even with our higher rates right now.
I’m also assuming they would have access to better terms than the rest of us, let’s say they could get 6% and put 35% down.
That comes out to a monthly payment of $58,881.18. But hey, at least there’s no PMI!Interest over the life of that loan is $11,294,223.43!
My best guess on condo association fees? $9500/mo. You gotta pay for the insurance on those private pools and those golf ranges somehow after all. It’s crazy the amount of money that people will pay for a perceived exclusive experience like these.
Also, never do the math. Math has never been my friend…
But my point was that line was hilarious. Are you arguing with me?
The condo fees would probably be in the range of $4k-$7k depending on the unit.
And yes, it could make sense for someone who is in private banking, where they are typically averaging around 15% returns, to finance a place like that. Hell, those folks would also have the option to lease it out for the season and double dip on net positive income from it. Depends on the situation and cash flow at the time etc.
Most buyers, though, would likely be cash.
The condo association will also dictate what colour your car(s) can be and the service intervals.
I wonder if any of these buildings have service bays and certified technicians? That would be a smart amenity. The richies don’t want to have to schlep out to a dealer for lousy coffee like us poors.
I know what you mean, but aren’t (non-PHEV) hybrids gas cars? Or is there something else (fairy dust?) that powers them?
EVs are electric because they need electricity to make them go.
PHEVs run on both.
Hydrogen cars run on hydrogen and unfulfilled dreams.
Hybrids need gas. They are gas cars. They just happen to have a nifty system that sometimes makes them more efficient.
If you drive a hybrid vs gas, the only difference is one makes vroom vroom noises all the time and the other is just sometimes.
what do you call davids I3 with a range extender? That breaks your categories imo.
A PHEV. It just has an unusually large all electric range.
I accept that. Not that it matters if I do ha! Thanks for playing.
What do you think they mine electricity? It is made with mostly some form of mined fluids or gas.
Have you ever seen an electricity mine?
I have. It was blue and glowed in the dark.
Oh, that’s actually the local lettuce farm. Can see its glow for over 10 miles around us. They are using it, not producing it.
I think you are consuming a different kind of lettuce. Does the head have 5 leaves or more?
ha! No that stuff is at my house! There is a lettuce farm over the border from us and it lights up multiple towns around us at night with a bright purple light. It went out of business over the last year and doesn’t do it anymore, but it was always crazy to me that lettuce was having so much light pollution, I’m honestly shocked it was allowed for as long as it went.
I mean it says “Gas” so that could be gasoline, natural gas or I guess compressed hydrogen or propane.
Agreed, Mild hybrids should be considered gas.
As a matter of statistics, I doubt we’ll get within 1 or 2 percentage points of a 3-way split.
I would guess that pure ICE vehicles will experience a slightly steeper decline, with hybrids rising fastest and EVs also rising, but more slowly.
I estimate ICE, hybrid, and EV will turn out the same way Newspaper/Radio/TV turned out.
1. ICE was 1st had a 99% penetration. Sorry you can only go down from here. Radio came along and stole half the market. Then TV a great invention and it stole a huge percentage but Sorry it doesn’t work in most situations just the majority situation. So EV will get huge as soon as solve most of the problems but will be in the area of huge population markets. Hybrids will always have a decent share across all areas due to their combined flexibility and ICE well they work everywhere so will only falls far.
I mildly disagree on your last point. Yes, ICE works everywhere, but higher gas prices would encourage hybrid and EV adoption, even if the price never becomes wholly ridiculous.
I would think gas prices would have to cut by a significant margin for ICE vehicles to be more cost-effective than EVs (over a 5-10 year period of ownership with moderate driving).
And that’s before getting to public policies that will preclude making/buying new pure ICE vehicles in some states.
Thanksyoutaise a very good point. And while it is my opinion I predict if over half the ICE market leaves and other industries leave gas prices will fall. And the very limited resources to make batteries and the industry grows to electricity plants the cost of those materials will skyrocket and actually cause prices of EVs, and Hybrids to increase as demand increases per the law of supply and demand faster than mass production causes production costs to decrease. Just my opinion until it happens and it will.
I too appreciate the Burn Notice reference.
I always appreciate a Burn Notice mention, I should watch that show again.
(opening the door for a joke)
The missing 1% is……
Hydrogen, or propane, like the Blue Bird buses in the other article.
Flying cars!
Always 5 years away.
House moving by hot air balloons.
The tears of ICE Camaro drivers
I have been watching the Buena Vista Social Club movie in bits and drabs over the past week. Glorious!
“If I had $15 million I don’t think I’d buy an apartment in Miami or Dubai. I’d buy a piece of land and build a rallycross track and spend some of that on cars,”
This is basically what Ken Block did. I’ve been past his house a few times. He lives outside a small town on a large piece of land (next to a buffalo ranch) and the entire property is covered in a gravel rally track. Has a bridge crossing over another part of the track and everything. Has a bunch of UTV/Snowmobile jumps up on the hill on another part of the property too. He was a man who knew how to live.
This made me decide to build a big jump over our river, rather than deal with permitting for a bridge. Hopefully Blocks family has a lot of fun and happiness, he was a cool dude.
Just think, you can pay 50 million dollars to periodically sleep in a building full of persons who built their fortune via cyro-scams and bitcoin mining. In the obelisk of social media that is an Aston Martian tower, all apartment numbers will just be your X username. There will be a guy out front selling discount Bored Ape NFTs.
Buying in Miami to escape climate change seems like a poor life choice.
Not if you like swimming.
Doesn’t that really depend on your swimming range?
Ugh, Miami. What a horrible place. You know the Tool song Aenema, in which Maynard cries out for a deluge that floods Los Angeles so thoroughly he’ll “see you down in Arizona Bay?” I feel the same way about Miami. The vapidity, the vanity, the relentless Latin-infused eurobeat literally and actually pumping out of hidden speakers, the constant honking of cars.
Let the ocean have it back, and soon.
Good place for the Christensen condos.
At least the Rolls Royce-branded condos have a place for your Boat Tail!
Depends on how long you got left to live.
I had no idea about automotive brand residences until now. Now I’m inspired to name normal homes after car brands too.
My 1969-built 1500 sqft suburban house is now “Ford Windsor Castle.”
My mom’s senior mobile home park will be “Altima Arms.”
My MILs Assisted Living place has the name Vista in it somewhere. I just call it the Vista Cruiser.
There’s a rural subdivision in my area which is known for the panorama.
It’s called Vista View Acres
How redundant. That’s basically “View View.”
Yep
-I did mention it’s rural 😉
“…about 28,000 centi-millionaires in the world…”
There have got to be far more people than that with a net worth of $10,000 or more. I suspect the author of the cited article meant to say hecto-millionaires.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/centimillionaire
It appears either term is acceptable, but the centi- prefix is more commonly used.
(Weird quirk of language that we can use the same prefix for hundredth and hundred.)
This is definitely going to change my level of enthusiasm for running a centi-meter dash.
Since we have a lot of Simpsons fans here, I’m reminded of Dr. Nick:
“INflammable means flammable? What a country!”
hectomillionaires 😛
Looks like a lot of people are stuffing money into Miami right before the city is swallowed by the sea. Fun Times!
I’m sure it couldn’t happen to a nicer group of people either.
It’s just all the NYC people that figured that if they were gonna live somewhere that will also be underwater relatively soon, they might as well have better beaches and pay way less taxes.
Less taxes but way more insurance.
Not in a brand-new condo that is built to the latest codes and has all the hurricane mitigation bells and whistles…
… and costs seven figures
I don’t understand the angle of your comments. The whole point of it all is whether it’s worth “extra” (which is debatable whether if it is even a wise spend for those in that strata) to buy a multi-million dollar place while paying an extra premium for brand cache. You seem to want to poo poo the idea, speaking from a perspective of someone that can’t ever afford the idea, even.
I don’t think you are grasping the concept of the discussion, rather just trying to say “something” about rich people and life choices.
Hey, if that’s your thing, by all means. It’s just not the proper perspective for the framework of the article, and frankly, is a tired and lazy take. Flawed as the article may be…
My point was that Florida is no bargain over NY. Between the higher cost of insurance and the services lost due to lower taxes, Florida ends up costing more.
Ok, just because I have strong coffee and this page was open when I powered up… I will also preface this by saying I am, by no means, advocating Florida as a panacea, nor am I trying to attack you. With that said:
There is a 0% outcome that living in NY is cheaper than FL. Zero. I’ve lived/live in both places and know the day-to-day numbers. It’s not even close in terms of how far a twenty dollar bill will get you.
What I am curious about is when you say “services lost”. I have no idea what you are referring to. Any public works service (or any other service) is in magnitude of orders better than whatever NY thinks it is doing. Shit, I just got a rate reduction in my FLP bill last month due to a hurricane aide add expiring, and another reduction is happening this month due to a surplus of energy. I will be around $0.075 p/kWh. The cops do their job, the garbage gets picked up on time, things get fixed when they break, the roads are pretty decent, etc.
The bottom line is that, yes, if you choose to live in Miami or Manhattan, it’s gonna be pricey. That’s how it works when you don’t live in Dubuque. But, for every $1000 you make in fancy pants FL v. fancy pants NY, you are gonna clear somewhere between 8%-10% more at the end of the month after expenses.
Thus, the influx of wealth. People may not be able to tolerate the weather in the summer, but that is basically an aside. The numbers on the ledger don’t lie.
I’m glad that they provide the services that you need. Unfortunately, that isn’t the case for many people.
Dude, why are you purposely being vague when I counter your mostly-false position?
Say what you want to say, or don’t say anything. It’s not complicated. lol
I still don’t get why CAR brands are the “trusted brands” for luxury buildings, when the product they’re known for is so vastly different. Can say the same thing about luxury goods/fashion houses, Armani, Gucci, etc
Giving luxury hotel names to residential buildings, like Ritz-Carlton or Waldorf-Astoria, I get that, since serviced residential hotels have been a thing since the Gilded Age, there’s a natural alignment
I think its simple. The thought, real or imagined, is that Porsche (or the others) won’t put their name on something sub par. And if I bought a Porsche apartment in the US and love it, then I can probably buy another Porsche apartment anywhere else and be just as happy. Its much easier to buy someone elses cache, like a ritzy car company, than it is to build your own. And using existing hotel brands means you have to get over the “wait is that a hotel” hump.
> The thought, real or imagined, is that Porsche (or the others) won’t put their name on something sub par.
I’m shocked this thought survives in 2024, but these folks aren’t generally big on introspecting, I guess.
Not this someone.
I’d be shocked if we ever hit the exact 1/3 each ratio, but I suspect that graph is accurate within a year or two, with gas only potentially dipping faster as more companies adopt hybrids and PHEV variants for as many models as they can.
I bought a car from Carvana and it was a perfectly pleasant experience. Sure, I may had paid a bit more, but the convenience was great. It was fun to jigger around with the down payment, loan length, and monthly payment sliders. Got the sub $300/month payment I was looking for at the time.
I got my own financing and there were significant hoops to jump through to make it work, but ultimately it was still a positive experience.
My dad purchased a car from them as well. The vending machine gimmick was underwhelming, but the process was easy overall. Part of the motivation was also that they were giving a healthy amount more for his trade than any other online tool or dealer was offering, so even if he found the specific type of car he was buying at another dealer he would have at least sold to them. No idea if they’re still doing so, I know a couple people that sold their car to them even when buying a new car from a dealer because the difference more than made up for any hassles of juggling two separate transactions.
Yeah, but they only drove cars that were within reach of us commoners. Gotta get that product placement in, especially on USA.
Take your pick AMC apartments or Oldsmobile RV Park?
The reason someone would pay $50 million for a luxury car branded apartment is to sell it to the next guy for $55 or $60 million. No further explanation needed.
My parsh sharing a building with other people? In sticky, gaudy Florida? The flattest place on earth waiting to be consumed by the ocean? Gross.
Being seen is tacky. I do not wish to be perceived.
Been hanging out with Fancy Kristen again?
she’s gone Hollywood
I retreated into a hole
we’re different flavors of fancy
New money is so gauche, isn’t it?
I yearn to retreat into the mountains, just me, good parsh and a metric butt-ton boatload of fondue money.
No one needs to know except the fondue guy. No one.
Lotsa peaks and valleys on the beaches and in the clubs, if ya know what I mean. lol
you can’t drive on those without feeling really, really bad for hurting someone and then going to prison
Fine. Be all morally upstanding and stuff. I see how it is.
The $50m isn’t for the branding. That’s just how much it costs in NYC LOL
Porsche apartment $50m
Color-keyed walls $20k
Color-matched doorknob and latch in exterior color $40k
Active Window Shutters $50k
Couch in color-matched leather $30k
Appliances in exterior color $75k
Doorman’s uniform in matching leather $80k
Doorbell in deviated exterior color $10k
Carbon ceramic shower $150k
The Porsche Apartment Leichtbau is an efficiency that costs more than the 4-bedroom.
Don’t they charge more for subtracting stuff?
$50 million furnished—$72.3 million bare floors.
Doorbell? You’ve got a lot to learn! Private elevators is where it’s at. The ones that open right into your residence’s four-yea.