NASCAR is back in Alabama this weekend as the second race of this round of the playoffs is set to take place at the infamous Talladega Superspeedway. If you would like some more information on the science of drafting and Superspeedway racing, you can check out my earlier piece on both Talladega and Daytona.
For the first time in recent memory, the opening race of this round of the playoffs was won by a non-playoff driver in both the Cup and Xfinity Series races. Normally, one driver would have found victory lane in Kansas and been able to sleep easy going into Talladega Superspeedway but that is not the case this weekend. No one gets to be comfortable. Everyone is equally vulnerable to the inevitable chaos that this race brings.
Teams anywhere near the cut line will be focused on scoring maximum points to improve their chances of advancing to the playoffs after next week’s race at the Charlotte Roval. Teams with more than a 20-point buffer to the cut line will likely focus more on surviving the race. As you’ll remember from our NASCAR playoff explainer, the points system creates all sorts of strange incentives for drivers.
CUP SERIES PLAYOFF STANDINGS GOING INTO TALLADEGA
While this makes compelling TV for the fans at home, it creates a lot of headaches for the teams and drivers. Drivers will be faced with two competing objectives this weekend. First and foremost, they must finish. A race-ending incident would put most any driver below the cut line going into the Charlotte Roval next weekend. No playoff driver can afford a race-ending incident, but chasing after desperately needed points puts them squarely in the danger zone. Maintaining a spot within the top ten will require a driver to make calculated blocks and aggressive passes, but the danger comes from the fact that everyone around them will be doing the same thing.
XFINITY SERIES PLAYOFF STANDINGS GOING INTO TALLADEGA
Stage points are awarded to drivers finishing inside the Top 10 at the end of each stage. The graph below includes all 36 cautions for incidents at Talladega Superspeedway for the Xfinity series since the introduction of SMT data. Plotted out are the percentage of times that each running position has been involved in a caution. Looking at the chart we can see that every position inside the top ten has above a 10% chance of being involved in a caution. Four positions inside the top ten have above a 20% chance with the statistically most dangerous position being third place which has been involved in 28% of incidents.
There really isn’t any position that can be called “safe,” especially at the front of the field.
As we saw earlier in the playoffs at Atlanta, not taking stage points presents a large risk in and of itself. Denny Hamlin opted to ride in the back for most of the race to try and maximize his chances of surviving to see the finish. He collected no stage points before being caught up in a last lap, last corner incident which relegated him to a twenty-fourth place finish worth just 13 points. Waiting until the end to get race-y is putting all your eggs into the basket of a good final finishing position, which more often than not is outside of the driver’s control.
Often times a bad block at the front of the field sets off a chain reaction accident that collects drivers running in the middle of the pack. Michael McDowell was within 1,000 feet of victory but a late block on Brad Keselowski sent him spinning and relegated him to a 31st-place finish. McDowell did not earn any stage points in this race and was thus credited with only 6 points in a race that saw him start on the pole and nearly win.
Multiple drivers who were in position for good finishes got taken out in both of these incidents. The only consolation prize for a driver in that situation would have been the stage points that they had gathered earlier in the event. As a reminder, a driver finishing last with two stage wins scores the same number of points as a driver finishing 16th with zero stage points.
A simple misjudgment from another driver could be all it takes to change the course of a team’s entire season. In the spring Xfinity series race, Parker Kligerman attempted to squeeze in between Ryan Sieg in the white #39 car and Brandon Jones in the yellow #9 car. Kligerman’s timing was slightly off and Jones was sent spinning, collecting multiple other drivers. Jones was credited with a 33rd-place finish.
Things get interesting when you consider that these point implications realistically only matter for the twelve playoff drivers in each race. Non-playoff drivers have the opportunity to forego stage points and short pit before each stage ends. This would cycle them to the front of the pack after each stage break while forcing the drivers who chased points to the middle of the pack. The non-playoff drivers also have the opportunity to be much less risk-averse than those still going after a championship. While no one wants to take out a playoff driver and alter the course of the championship, there is still a trophy up for grabs and many of the non-playoff drivers picture themselves scoring a Harrison Burton Daytona-esque victory as a way to redeem their season. The mixed bag of goals and varying levels of risk sensitivity will create turbulence within the pack and add to the drama of the race.
Anything can happen. The unexpected is to be expected. It’s a reward for fans and a nightmare for those trying to survive and chase a championship. When so much is up to chance you have to focus on the things that you can control directly. We’re in for an exciting weekend of racing. Some will leave cursing the racing gods for their misfortune while others will be singing their praises. Best buckle up and enjoy the ride.
Top photo: Depositphotos.com
McDowell always seems to be either getting screwed or getting a gift. I recall a few years back when he won Daytona after leaders Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski took each other and like 1/2 of the field out on turn 4 of the last lap, leaving him in exactly the right place to snick through and win. It must be amazing to see the chaos of all those crashes unfolding in front of you but then realize you alone can make it.
Aedan, I realize you may not be able to talk about this, but if you can, to what extent do team or manufacturer orders come into play at this stage in the season?
As you point out, non-playoff drivers still want to win, but it would seem like they have to be even more careful now with the choices they make to try to do that. Is it all perceptions of what’s considered appropriate, or is there something more concrete at play?
I look forward to Aedan’s take on the NASCAR races every Saturday. He never disappoints, even if my math skills aren’t up to some of his tire/suspension formulae.
I would have been interested in seeing his opinion of NASCAR’s latest aero tweaks on the Cup cars as well, but you can’t have everything….
Thanks again, Aedan!