NASCAR is back in Alabama this weekend as the second race of this round of the playoffs is set to take place at the infamous Talladega Superspeedway. If you would like some more information on the science of drafting and Superspeedway racing, you can check out my earlier piece on both Talladega and Daytona.
For the first time in recent memory, the opening race of this round of the playoffs was won by a non-playoff driver in both the Cup and Xfinity Series races. Normally, one driver would have found victory lane in Kansas and been able to sleep easy going into Talladega Superspeedway but that is not the case this weekend. No one gets to be comfortable. Everyone is equally vulnerable to the inevitable chaos that this race brings.
Teams anywhere near the cut line will be focused on scoring maximum points to improve their chances of advancing to the playoffs after next week’s race at the Charlotte Roval. Teams with more than a 20-point buffer to the cut line will likely focus more on surviving the race. As you’ll remember from our NASCAR playoff explainer, the points system creates all sorts of strange incentives for drivers.
CUP SERIES PLAYOFF STANDINGS GOING INTO TALLADEGA
While this makes compelling TV for the fans at home, it creates a lot of headaches for the teams and drivers. Drivers will be faced with two competing objectives this weekend. First and foremost, they must finish. A race-ending incident would put most any driver below the cut line going into the Charlotte Roval next weekend. No playoff driver can afford a race-ending incident, but chasing after desperately needed points puts them squarely in the danger zone. Maintaining a spot within the top ten will require a driver to make calculated blocks and aggressive passes, but the danger comes from the fact that everyone around them will be doing the same thing.
XFINITY SERIES PLAYOFF STANDINGS GOING INTO TALLADEGA
Stage points are awarded to drivers finishing inside the Top 10 at the end of each stage. The graph below includes all 36 cautions for incidents at Talladega Superspeedway for the Xfinity series since the introduction of SMT data. Plotted out are the percentage of times that each running position has been involved in a caution. Looking at the chart we can see that every position inside the top ten has above a 10% chance of being involved in a caution. Four positions inside the top ten have above a 20% chance with the statistically most dangerous position being third place which has been involved in 28% of incidents.
There really isn’t any position that can be called “safe,” especially at the front of the field.
As we saw earlier in the playoffs at Atlanta, not taking stage points presents a large risk in and of itself. Denny Hamlin opted to ride in the back for most of the race to try and maximize his chances of surviving to see the finish. He collected no stage points before being caught up in a last lap, last corner incident which relegated him to a twenty-fourth place finish worth just 13 points. Waiting until the end to get race-y is putting all your eggs into the basket of a good final finishing position, which more often than not is outside of the driver’s control.
Often times a bad block at the front of the field sets off a chain reaction accident that collects drivers running in the middle of the pack. Michael McDowell was within 1,000 feet of victory but a late block on Brad Keselowski sent him spinning and relegated him to a 31st-place finish. McDowell did not earn any stage points in this race and was thus credited with only 6 points in a race that saw him start on the pole and nearly win.
Multiple drivers who were in position for good finishes got taken out in both of these incidents. The only consolation prize for a driver in that situation would have been the stage points that they had gathered earlier in the event. As a reminder, a driver finishing last with two stage wins scores the same number of points as a driver finishing 16th with zero stage points.
A simple misjudgment from another driver could be all it takes to change the course of a team’s entire season. In the spring Xfinity series race, Parker Kligerman attempted to squeeze in between Ryan Sieg in the white #39 car and Brandon Jones in the yellow #9 car. Kligerman’s timing was slightly off and Jones was sent spinning, collecting multiple other drivers. Jones was credited with a 33rd-place finish.
Things get interesting when you consider that these point implications realistically only matter for the twelve playoff drivers in each race. Non-playoff drivers have the opportunity to forego stage points and short pit before each stage ends. This would cycle them to the front of the pack after each stage break while forcing the drivers who chased points to the middle of the pack. The non-playoff drivers also have the opportunity to be much less risk-averse than those still going after a championship. While no one wants to take out a playoff driver and alter the course of the championship, there is still a trophy up for grabs and many of the non-playoff drivers picture themselves scoring a Harrison Burton Daytona-esque victory as a way to redeem their season. The mixed bag of goals and varying levels of risk sensitivity will create turbulence within the pack and add to the drama of the race.
Anything can happen. The unexpected is to be expected. It’s a reward for fans and a nightmare for those trying to survive and chase a championship. When so much is up to chance you have to focus on the things that you can control directly. We’re in for an exciting weekend of racing. Some will leave cursing the racing gods for their misfortune while others will be singing their praises. Best buckle up and enjoy the ride.
Top photo: Depositphotos.com
I continue to be amazed by the seemingly room temp IQ takes here in the comments. Anyone who has been stuck in rush hour bumper to bumper traffic has done a version of a drafting track race, however on super easy toddler mode. Jumping from lane to lane, cutting people off (or getting cut off), avoiding the lane closure/crash/construction, all while not getting hit or hitting another car.
Now speed that up and everyone is doing 190mph around corners on a bumpy road. Even in a racing game or sim, it’s difficult enough to keep 2 lanes crash free for 10 laps. Now make it 3 or 4 lanes of cars, and do it for 40-50 laps straight without a crash, while trying to advance your position. Driver skill in these races is incredible, especially in Cup. When things settle down and they’re just “riding around logging laps” it’s still 2 lanes inches apart.
Well, this post held up remarkably well in this day and age.
Watching the race reminded me of driving 70 mph in the 55 mph era on the Long Beach Freeway outbound of LA, bumper to bumper in all three lanes, and remarking to my wife, “If someone sneezes, it’s all over.”
Apparently, a couple of guys sneezed, or bumped too hard, or whatever the Hell happens in NASCAR.
Based on this article, I recorded it and then fast forwarded through the recording until I saw a ton of tire smoke, chaotically spinning cars and blinky lights.
Watching F1 and Indy Car racing, I am aware of how riskier open tire racing is, but I guess NASCAR racing is more relatable to me, having dealt with urban commuting for nearly 50 years. I get more anxious watching NASCAR than F1.
Good to see that driver skill plays almost no role in NASCAR.
These super speedway races are hot garbage and I don’t get why they are so popular. Watching half the field, or more like last night, get wrecked every single time they go there isn’t entertaining.
There was a 28 car crash with five laps to go…
The physics and car setup are interesting, the points system is baffling. and to be honest the last time I cared who was winning in NASCAR was the early oughts when Greg Biffle was at his peak and that was because he was from Camas Washington in the PNW
Even though I dont watch or follow Nascar any more, I always enjoy Aedan’s articles!
Thank you!
I’m just glad NASCAR is finally done with that silly niche channel USA. If they really want people to watch, stick with OTA broadcasts.
Yeah, I’m glad too (I don’t have cable myself…I’d watch even more tv than I already do if I did). I get NASCAR’s focusing on broadcast for the famous races, but I always get upset when one of the road courses – usually the Glen – is relegated to USA or FS1.
I gave up on nascar years ago. Nothing against the drivers though. Anyone getting behind the wheel of a race car gets kudos. I just find the race convoluted and boring. if you like nascar, or even just the idea of “stock” car racing then i suggest getting into watching the MX5 cup. it’s fantastic! pure racing. 45 minute road course races. no stops for fuel or tires. All the cars come from the same shop! stock mazda motors sealed from the factory. rookies and veteran racers trading paint! the lead position swaps often and most 123 finishes are within a car’s length! very exciting! best driver wins! IMSA streams live for free and races are slso on youtube. check it out. it’s the. best racing you can watch!
Good thing there are actual American sports going on this weekend that people other than dirtballs care about.
The math and physics of track and cars are fine for me. I do have problems with the scoring and points systems. Talk about a convoluted Gordian knot.
I ignored NASCAR until I moved from California to North Carolina. Then, because it’s so much a part of the culture, I started following it and even went to a couple of races (paid for by clients). I got so I could join in conversations but was never a huge fan. I moved from NC over a decade ago and left NASCAR behind. Now that I look at the standings I recognize almost no one. Time flys.
I “recognized” Chase Elliott because I assumed it was Bill’s son and happened to be right. =P
I used to watch a ton of NASCAR as a “yute”. Can’t imagine doing that now with the cars the way they are. Having said that, I won’t hate on anyone who does. I just don’t find it interesting anymore.
I wish the cars on the track had a closer relationship to those in the showroom. There are plenty of racing events for “cars” just trying to be as performant as possible, but I think it’d also be nice to have at least somewhat “stock” cars engage each other on a national stage. Even if it would essentially be limited run cars made primarily for racing. At least we would have some real-life experience with their ilk.
But maybe it’s just me.
That sounds a lot like IMSA and GT racing in general there. “Stock” cars haven’t been stock since before I was even born
“Stock” cars haven’t been stock since before I was even born”
Me neither but that would make it a lot more interesting. Especially since NASCAR is probably going to need to reinvent itself.
McDowell always seems to be either getting screwed or getting a gift. I recall a few years back when he won Daytona after leaders Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski took each other and like 1/2 of the field out on turn 4 of the last lap, leaving him in exactly the right place to snick through and win. It must be amazing to see the chaos of all those crashes unfolding in front of you but then realize you alone can make it.
Aedan, I realize you may not be able to talk about this, but if you can, to what extent do team or manufacturer orders come into play at this stage in the season?
As you point out, non-playoff drivers still want to win, but it would seem like they have to be even more careful now with the choices they make to try to do that. Is it all perceptions of what’s considered appropriate, or is there something more concrete at play?
The racing gods giveth the racing gods taketh.
Each manufacturer has their own policy in terms of specifics but the gist of it is that you’re supposed to take care of the playoff cars. Beating a playoff driver of the same manufacturer is one thing but abandoning them in the draft or shuffling them out of line late in the race would likely come with a stern talking to
Fascinating. Good luck today and hope you guys don’t have to put in an angry call to GM during the race to complain about someone being an idiot (does that ever happen?)
I look forward to Aedan’s take on the NASCAR races every Saturday. He never disappoints, even if my math skills aren’t up to some of his tire/suspension formulae.
I would have been interested in seeing his opinion of NASCAR’s latest aero tweaks on the Cup cars as well, but you can’t have everything….
Thanks again, Aedan!
I have some thoughts on it but I haven’t seen enough information to be willing to share those thoughts publicly or to state them as facts