It’s increasingly dawning on me that we’re probably never going back to a time when there was a large pool of reasonably priced and decently reliable used cars. There are many factors contributing to this and few of them look like they’re improving.
I don’t want to scare you. If you take a lot of time and do your research you’ll eventually find something. You might even get lucky and score a good deal from a friend. But we’re now at a point where good used cars are rare enough to keep prices high.
It’s Monday, so it’s time for The Morning Dump, and today we’re talking about timelines. How long before we get affordable used cars again? How many more years (or months) before Stellantis decides to bail out of Michigan? How many trips around the sun will it take for Europe to stop subsidizing gas-powered company cars? And, finally, how long before Indonesia becomes a big part of the battery supply pipeline in the United States?
Let’s see how many of these questions we can answer this morning.
The Used Car Market Might Not Truly Stabilize Until The End Of The Decade, If Ever
Both used and new cars increased in value rapidly during the pandemic as carmakers suddenly stopped producing as many cars as they had planned. A somewhat self-imposed semiconductor shortage exacerbated this problem.
If you look at the graphic above you can see clearly that the average used-vehicle listing price started a rapid ascent in April of 2021 that would peak in September of the following year. Prices have come down since, though they are way higher than pre-pandemic and don’t seem to be dropping much further anytime soon.
Part of this is due to a shortage of good quality used cars. As Cox Automotive explains, inventory levels are constrained mostly across the board, but are particularly rough for affordable vehicles:
Affordability remains challenging for consumers, and supply is more constrained at lower price points. Used cars below $15,000 continue to show low availability, with only 33 days’ supply, which is four days lower than the same time last year and 29% less than the industry average.
How? Why?
The first big reason is simply that there were fewer cars produced and, therefore, a large number of available used cars that would have been built between 2021 and 2023 were just never made. It’s hard to sell a car that never existed in the first place. A series of hurricanes and severe storms in the last few years have also taken potential quality used cars out of the inventory (though some do appear again).
Trimflation is another issue, with carmakers choosing to make more expensive trim levels over more affordable ones, thus skewing the inventory of younger used cars upwards in price.
The biggest potential issue? Leasing. The number of cars leased during the pandemic dropped a ton, reducing the number of off-lease vehicles entering the market. This is bad for the used car market and isn’t going to improve anytime soon.
Starting next month and for most of the next two years, the number of lease turn-ins — which fuel new-vehicle sales, provide valuable feedstock for profit-rich certified pre-owned programs and lure loyal customers back to the dealership — will decline rapidly.
And unless dealers, automakers and their financial partners figure out ways to get once-loyal lessees back on their formerly semipredictable three-year cycle, the long-term impacts on the industry could metastasize into something far worse than a temporary headache, some analysts say.
“In our forecast, we don’t get back to 2023 in terms of used-vehicle supply until the end of the decade,” said Tyson Jominy, vice president of data and analytics at J.D. Power. “We had fewer leased vehicles in 2021, so we have fewer people coming back in 2024, which means that in 2027, we still will not be back to normal. We’re losing a very loyal turnkey customer who moves from one lease to the next very fluidly, and we’re going to have to work harder to get them or else there’s a potential sales risk.”
This is a big issue and I’m not sure what the solution for it is.
Well, I think I know one potential solution (or huge headache in the making):
That’s a graphic from S&P Global Mobility showing lease penetration among non-Tesla EVs, which is super high. Because of a quirk in the Inflation Reduction Act, most new electric cars do not qualify for the $7,500 tax credit if purchased. However, the credit applies almost universally to leased electric cars. This is why most non-Teslas EVs you see on the road are leased and why we say you should either buy a used EV or lease a new one.
In the next few years, there will be at least one pocket of good quality used cars and those will be EVs, though whether the market wants that or not is another question. Assuming good battery condition and some kind of warranty it might be worth considering, though I am concerned about off-lease rideshare vehicles given that many rideshare drivers tend to charge vehicles to 100% as often as possible, thus potentially degrading the battery.
Stellantis Shutting Down Its Arizona Proving Grounds, What’s Next?
The shutting down of the Stellantis Proving Grounds in Arizona, announced this week, wasn’t a surprise. An earlier version of the company purchased the property in 2007 and the larger Stellantis already had facilities elsewhere, including in Michigan.
[Ed Note: I once visited APG! It was shared with Harley Davidson, so I remember seeing bikes out there. I was a 21 year-old new-hire testing the then-upcoming Jeep Cherokee KL, and my god was it hot. I remember looking at an old-school thermometer under an awning showing 116 degrees. We were putting those KLs to the test! I remember thinking how lonely it probably would be to work there; it really was in the middle of nowhere near Yucca; I still have my APG visitor card somewhere around here…-DT].
What everyone wants to know right now is: What’s going to happen to all the Stellantis properties in Chrysler’s Auburn Hills, Michigan home?
Recently, speculation has ramped up over the fate of the company’s 5.4-million-square-foot Auburn Hills complex, with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer saying earlier this month she was in discussions with the automaker about its Michigan footprint, without providing specifics.
This week, the Michigan Economic Development Corp. responded to questions about whether Stellantis had asked for or been offered any incentives related to the Auburn Hills complex or other Michigan operations.
Spokesman Otie McKinley said in an email that “Stellantis has a longstanding history in Michigan as a significant employer, and as such, the MEDC is in regular communication with the company about how Michigan can be a core location for them for generations to come.”
That’s… encouraging.
Europe Is Spending Billions Subsidizing ICE-Powered Company Cars: Report
Environmental group Transport & Environment (T&E) commissioned a study of Europe’s six biggest economies to determine how much money was being spent subsidizing the purchase or leasing of company cars for employees.
Specifically, T&E was curious if European countries were continuing to support the purchase of internal combustion-powered cars. Why? Because all of these countries have, generally, expressed concern over global warming and passed laws to limit the use of fossil fuels.
With the exception of the United Kingdom, most countries do spend a decent amount of money helping companies buy gas or diesel-powered vehicles. As Stef Cornelis, director of the electric fleets program at T&E points out, this is kind of contradictory:
Taxpayers are paying billions every year in tax benefits so company car drivers can drive polluting petrol cars. Many of which are expensive, high-end, high-polluting SUVs. This is bad climate policy and socially unfair. Governments in the UK and Belgium have introduced green tax measures and are phasing out benefits for polluting vehicles. But Governments in Europe’s largest automotive markets are failing to address this absurdity. This is why the European Commission needs to take action.”
Right now, governments in Continental Europe are probably happy people are buying anything given how crappy the European car market is this year. The fact Britain is being more aggressive here just goes to show how much of a different trajectory that country is post-Brexit.
Having seen its car companies sold to foreign entities and watched production bleed away, the UK is now in a position to make decisions that EU countries cannot. This extends to the environment and the introduction of Chinese cars.
Indonesia And America Are New Best Friends
For all its advanced battery technology, China still imports large amounts of materials to keep its battery industry running. One of those key commodities is nickel and China has historically imported it from Indonesia.
Now, according to Reuters, Indonesia is about to start exporting nickel precursor to the United States:
Indonesia aims to develop its EV industry and has for years been wooing Tesla to invest in battery making and car manufacturing in the country, trying to leverage its rich reserves of nickel, which can be processed for use in EV batteries.
Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
In order to qualify for tax credits, American-made EVs will need batteries with materials not sourced from the no-no list (China, DRC, Russia) and this gives Indonesia an opening to build out more supply partners.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
MF Doom’s “MM… FOOD” was a revelation to me, 20 years ago, when it debuted. I’m not sure where I first heard it. I’m guessing my friend Dan got it as a non-Pontiac torrent and played it in his Volkswagen Golf. Either way, I was into it. It’s hard to pick a favorite so I’ll just pick “Beef Rap” as a good entry point. With its wild mix of samples (Logan’s Run and Frank Zappa) and Doom’s effortful yet laconic rhymes, if you like this you’ll love the rest.
The Big Question
Are you seeing what I’m seeing in the used car market? Is it not as bad as it seems?
Top graphic: Used Cars via YouTube
I think it’s only going to get worse. Nothing is over-engineered anymore, so cars that go 300k are going to be few and far between. Just look at the “lifetime” fluids in transmissions. Nobody makes that claim believing their stuff is going to last a long time. It just has to make it through the warranty period.
Because of that, there can’t be good, cheap cars. If it’s cheap, it’s old and unreliable. If it’s good, it’s too new and costs a lot. The overlap between when a car is still good and when it gets cheap is going to continue to shrink.
May I point out it wasn’t that long ago when cars had 12 months 12,000 mile warranty. Now 5 years and more are available. Now they are rolling it back but the days of cars celebration at 100,000 miles is gone and buying cars at 200,000 miles for more than pennies is still around.
> it wasn’t that long ago when cars had 12 months 12,000 mile warranty
Only for a tranche of the population. There’s a whole generation that’s only known far longer warranties. Hyundai has been doing it for, what, 20 years?
Hyundai did that warranty because they had a toxic history.
My Isuzu daily driver had a 10 year 100,000 mile warranty. Didn’t need it despite GM trying to ruin competition.
Yes but I remember when disco came out. I have worn original bell bottom jeans. I have owned more than one leisure suit. Those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it. As I am sure many forgot that saying.
I’ve got bad news for you: It’s been decades since that has been the case. I can remember when it was noteworthy for a car to make it to 100000 miles, but barely. 😉
The point is most 10 year old cars today at 100k miles, are in much worse condition than a 20 year old car was 10 years ago at the same milage. As an auto engineer, yes we actively design cars that will not survive 20 years, so we can sell more new vehicles.
And that kids is how you lose market share to the Chinese.
Sure if you think the Chinese cars are built with any longevity in mind (they aren’t from the teardowns I’ve seen in person). They’re just cheap (early Kia)
There’s a reason Subarus don’t rust out super fast today but drive lines also don’t usually hit 300k anymore. Same for Honda/Toyota.
Most Americans, especially automakers dismissed Japanese cars as “Jap crap” right up to the 1980s.
How’d that work out for American manufacturers?
“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana
Except in those days union built American autos were just as much junk as the Japanese that were better built. Now so many quality cars and no one has ever bought a reliable quality slave built Chinese anything. But even if they are good why support slavery again. Funny thing is it is the liberal people supporting China who support Harris and don’t mind the slave labor since it supports them.
But even if they are good why support slavery again.
Why indeed?
https://www.naacpldf.org/13th-amendment-emancipation/
No the Chinese junk is government supported low quality junk that won’t last the warranty and the company will no longer be in business.
Something, something glass houses:
https://www.energy.gov/articles/biden-harris-administration-announces-nearly-2-billion-support-american-auto-workers
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/09/23/fact-sheet-taking-action-to-support-auto-workers-and-manufacturers-including-in-michigan/
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/12/19/bush-bails-out-us-automakers-dec-19-2008-1066932
https://247wallst.com/cars-and-drivers/2024/08/21/chrysler-hit-hard-by-low-quality-rating/
https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-reports-just-called-out-chrysler-for-its-alarmingly-bad-quality-2016-2
https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a42283857/ford-ceo-until-we-fix-quality-nothing-else-matters/
https://cleantechnica.com/2021/03/16/gm-went-to-shit-in-the-90s-didnt-really-recover-part-1/
If they bring back the the enormous lease subsidies that were present pre pandemic, leasing will come back.
Nice.
As for the used car market, this is sort of what happens when everyone collectively says “instead of buying a new *insert small, basic vehicle here* I’ll buy a used *insert large, formerly expensive, feature packed vehicle here*”. Well, now we’ve got a bunch of expensive vehicles on long-ass loans, many of which people are underwater on. And those vehicles often don’t make for practical entry-level cars anyway.
When people were buying smaller, more basic cars more frequently, the odds of those same cars becoming available to bolster the bottom of the used market was higher.
Loving the “Used Cars” call-out!
We don’t need to murder high prices, we need to blow the living shit out of high prices
so all the cash for clunkers government deals really only created a place where fewer used cars exist, thus creating a world where dealers can sell used cars for more expensive prices.
neat.
677,842 drivable cars destroyed, and every one at the price point of people who needed them the most.
My dreams of a Roadkill-esque cross country trip in a sub $1000 car have been dashed. Made worse by rewatching Top Gear and crying over the cheap car challenges that are no longer possible.
Here. All have significant (but fixable) issues and all well under $1000.
https://sfbay.craigslist.org/sby/cto/d/sunnyvale-2000-oldsmobile-intrigue-for/7794320733.html
https://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/cto/d/vallejo-2003-mitsubishi-montero-sport/7787808791.html
https://sfbay.craigslist.org/nby/cto/d/clearlake-park-mechanic-sp-subaru/7792331659.html
https://sfbay.craigslist.org/nby/cto/d/sausalito-volkswagen-jetta-wagon-wont/7787329159.html
Username checks out.
Here’s to hoping there isn’t another part two,
But with the push for EVs (especially in Europe, not to throw shade at EVs) maybe there will be a “cash for ICEs” sometime in the future
I strongly doubt anyone would take advantage of “cash for ICEs” when EVs currently have so many problems besides price.
Yeah definitely not within 3-5 years, but maybe much further in the future
Ah, Cash for Clunkers, the favorite bogeyman of every car forum whenever used car prices come up. It was in 2009, 15 freakin’ years ago. The cars it took off the road would be mostly 25 to 40 years old by now. If you’re going to blame that program (and don’t get me wrong, I wasn’t the biggest fan of it) for the ills of the current used car market, how do you explain the 2009-2019 “normal” used car market?
Quite frankly, that might not have been “normal.” I think car prices were so cheap then as we were coming off a recession where automakers went bankrupt. Things were cheap because demand was low, that in turn made the following years of used cars cheap. Then we gave people who didn’t need it, thousands of dollars during COVID and they all bought fucking cars with it. And now we’re wondering why the now used iteration of cars sold during a high demand time are still expensive?
It’s annoying to me too, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure why this happened. But there are still some head scratchers out there. Like $20K Honda Civics with 100K miles. Who is buying these? Who is giving loans for these? Those are the cars that must come down in price. That car should be $10K.
and 10 years from now there’s still going to be lasting effects on the economy from COVID and all the zany money policies enacted during that time.
it really sucks how much knock on effect any 1 thing can have on an economy so long after things actually happen, it makes it really hard to blame the right president.
You can probably blame any president and will be correct in some way shape or form.
It was a terrible program. I was in the used car business at the time and we fucking hated it.
“This is a big issue and I’m not sure what the solution for it is.”
China is always the answer.
Instructions unclear. How do I solve this with all these plates?
Throw a fancy dinner party, obviously.
Coincidentally I’m possibly buying a 10 year old Civic Si today or tomorrow, if the dealership and I can agree on the price. I’ve been watching the market for a 4-door Si, old enough to not be 30K but new enough to not be a rusted heap or modded to death. This is the best one I’ve found but they had just taken it in on trade last Friday, so when I drove it Saturday morning they hadn’t even gotten to wash it yet. Anxiously awaiting news from them. Barring catastrophe it will likely be the car that takes me out of the market until the 2030s.
How much is it?
No comment.
What I see on the used car market is chaos. If you do a little shopping with a broad enough net, you’ll find some places with relative bargains, some with lightly used vehicles over MSRP while you can find them new, and everything between those. If you’re selling, one dealer will promise to beat CarMax and the next will be so far off you think it is a mistake.
My take is that some places are betting on another hot market soon (maybe due to better finance rates?) and others are betting on a cooldown (because better finance rates mean more people buying new than used?). Everyone’s guessing and no one wants to be without inventory in a hot market or sitting on overpriced inventory in a cold market.
My mom sold her SLK to a private party this year for $12,000. Carmax offered her $8,000 and givemethevin $500. I don’t know why they made an offer at all.
I sold a 2002 Silverado in May or June and the only way to go was private. Carvana/Vroom/Etc all gave me messages like “that’s outside our sweet spot” and still offered like $500. I assume it’s something with relying on an algorithm to figure out pricing. I agree that they shouldn’t bother making an offer at all. I think CarMax simply declined, which is fair.
The kid who bought it was super stoked about it, though. His excitement got me excited about the damned thing and I almost wanted the deal to fall through.
I don’t agree that finding a decent used car is that hard right now. I happened to be trolling autotrader during a work call as I am wont to do. My son is going to be driving before long so I occasionally like to scout what’s out there. I capped the buying price at 20k and I gotta tell you, there were a lot of great cars available in the $15-20k range.
Is that too much for a good used car? I’m sure some think so, but getting something with modern amenities and safety features in that price range when the avg price of a new car is at $50k sure seems reasonable to me.
I got my teen a car a few months ago and while there seemed to be a decent number of cars in the $15k to $19k range, I found out that in 2 of the 3 major markets around me, you were going to pay $1.3k – $5k more in dealer adds than the advertised price. Dealers in the Dallas metroplex seemed to add $3k – $5k. So that nice $19.5k CRV won’t leave the lot for less than $25k. If it is a nice example, $26k. Dallas and Houston used car dealers are still acting like there’s a pandemic going on.
$15k is likely not too much, but once you get to $20 you’re getting awfully close to new car with warrantee range. That assumes, of course, that you’re happy with a new Trax/Envista or something like that.
You can buy a new LS Malibu for about $23k.
That’s a good buy. A new Jetta is barely over $20k as well. There’s stuff out there and deals to be had for sure.
Strange coincidence as I’m listening to Super What? while reading TMD.
Just remember ALL CAPS when you spell the man name.
The used car market is like fuel. Goes up in an instant then takes a long time to go down. I recently watched a video were the owner of a dealership was whining he couldn’t make much on the cars.
He overpaid during the Pandemic and now wonders why people would pay inflated prices.
You paid too much and are expecting the customer to make up the difference? I can get the same for less elsewhere but I should buy from your shady dealership that does the minimal fixes cheaply?
hahahahahaha..wait you’re serious? Let me laugh harder HAHAHAHAHAHA
They made money when it all blew up in the first place so I don’t feel so bad. It’s just now all balancing out.
The used car market is weird. I sold a 2013 Fiat 500 Sport with 81k miles on it to the first person who looked at it, and I had a list a mile long of people who wanted it if that deal didn’t work out.
A month later, and I’m selling a 2012 Chevy Sonic LT with 71k miles, and I didn’t get a single hit, not even scammers!
Agreed on the weirdness. I recently sold a 2019 Volvo XC40. I got my baseline from Carmax and Carvana and put the info in a number of other sites that say they will buy your car.
Carmax gave a decent offer but Carvana was better. Then I started getting low ball offers from the other sites based on some variation of KBB. Then dealers started hounding me since several of the sites just sell my info to the dealers. But all of them would not listen when I told them their offer was too low.
“Just come in and let us look at the car, I know we can do better than the KBB estimate.”
Why would I waste my time with you if our starting point of negotiating is lower than the others? If you’re so desperate to get this car you have to compete on actual real offers.
Then Carvana proceeded to play dumb when it came to getting pay off info, they would not budge from some paperwork that was required so I just sold it to Carmax.
Very weird. And dumb. Dumb and weird.
And they never can. They just want you to come in and hope they can convince you to take their offer. Once, a dealership like that took my key, said they were just running in to check the numbers, and left me waiting for long enough that I assume they wanted me to just give up. When I told them I’d take my key back, they were shocked. If I just waited a little longer, they were sure they could make me a good enough offer.
Around me there are so many horror stories of dealers playing games and telling people that they’ve lost their keys or even straight up telling them they won’t return the key until you hear them out, to keep them hostage. I vowed a long time ago that if it ever happened to me I would ask once and after that I will just call 911 and report it as a theft.
Yeah, there is a reason so many just prefer to sell the car to Carmax or something similar that it used to be not worth the extra dollars you could get. Now the dealers aren’t even willing to pay more for the extra abuse.
Oof. The local Ford dealer (Tamiami Ford) pulled the “lost key” scam on me when I test-drove a ZX2 about 25 years ago. The keys show up pretty damn fast if you yell loud enough for every customer in the dealership to hear you. If I ever roll the dice on a Ford product I won’t buy it from those assholes.
I traded in a car recently and there were really wild swings on what dealers were willing to offer me for it. I got a baseline from Carmax and Carvana and settled on the minimum I would accept. I eventually got even more than I thought I would, but not before walking away from a few assholes (and the cars I wanted to buy from them) who insulted my intelligence with their offers.
In 2021, in the heat of the crappy market, I got a 2013 Sonic LT (Ex-rental, dents everywhere, 135k miles) for 4k. It’s been fine! I’m so cheap though, I see 20k used cars and my programming fails. I don’t think I ever want to graduate from cheap econoboxes, so I guess when this car dies, I’m going to be picking through any surviving Mitsubishi Mirages.
The EU employee car subsidy is a huge employee compensation perk that favors both employees and employers. When working at a multinational, I often wondered how so many of the EU employees at similar levels of the organization were driving such nice cars. They were all company cars with favorable tax treatment that was considered part of your comp package. I don’t see this going away without a fight.
My counterparts in Europe drive such nice cars, recently I learned about this, all of them were company cars, basically the company pay their lease and they switch cars pretty often. Here in the US, not even directors get company cars or compensation for it, only VPs and above get some compensation but not the whole car payment (at that level you make enough money to pay for the rest).
I get to fight for a charging spot (only 6) for +30 electric cars. I never been so early to work until recently when everybody started to get EVs.
This is why I’m just keeping a couple of old 90s cars running. Parts are so cheap it’s almost criminal if you shop around, they’re reliable enough that it doesn’t matter that they’re ancient. No car payment. Decent fuel economy. Easy to work on.
I could just give in and get another late model daily driver, but there is just no justifying the expense at this point when I have a ’96 Avalon I picked up for $1000 and a ’96 GMC pickup that I picked up for $3000 that won’t die. I’ve even installed Android Auto head units, LED lighting, and upgraded brakes on both, and I doubt I have $7000 invested in the pair.
In the meantime, since everyone else is just fine paying way too much for cars, and I work on cars for a living, I keep buying cheap and easy to fix 2010-ish cars, fixing them, and flipping them for cash.
I can tell you’re like me, averse to lining other people’s pockets.
90’s cars do have their appeals; however, they are not as safe, not as powerful nor do they get as good fuel economy as modern cars, especially modern hybrids. So if you don’t drive much a 90’s car probably makes more sense but if your on the road all the time maybe a newer car is the better option.
Oh, yeah, my 3800 is “not as powerful” as a modern Buick with a THREE cylinder. Is that why I blow their doors off every single time?
Must be the torque.
What modern Buicks are you racing with yours? Is there a street class that is limited to production Buicks of any year?
Only the supercharged 3800 when in the regal is faster than the current slowest Buick (Envista) to 60mph. If you have the NA 3800 then it’s about the same to 60. 9ish seconds.
I’m just curious what you have and what you’re racing against. I love the 3800.
If there’s a racing class for stock Buicks, The Autopian needs to start covering it. To hell with Nascar, this is the racing action we deserve!
I agree.
I’ll gladly buy a Buick of some year to take part. It will likely have a 3800 in some form. Or, if I can find the end of the rainbow it’ll be a Roadmaster Wagon with the towing package and the LT1V8.
Those 3-bangers are just useless off the line. I could care less what an instrumented test says; when the light turns green, a line forms behind them.
And sorry to break it to you, but low-rpm torque is what gets you off the line. A small engine with a turbo doesn’t make torque until the turbo spools up- which, even in the best cars, takes an eternity.
If there is a line behind them irl then it’s probably because the Buick brand has the highest age of new buyers.
It’s not “the torque” or that the instrumented tests are somehow wrong. Crying “fake news” all day doesn’t change facts.
It’s that most people don’t want to use up their fuel and their engine in pointless stoplight competitions these days.
Once you have more than enough power to move with authority, you use it when you need to, but don’t bother to show it off much. Most people have reached that point with modern automobiles.
Modern Buicks are all perfectly capable of keeping up an old 3800. Even the 3 cylinder ones.
Maybe because the other person isn’t part of the race?
well said and not every person that needs a decent used car is a mechanic.
Safety? Meh, they’re safe enough. Fuel economy? You’re dead wrong. The Avalon gets 25-27mpg highway. Anything else that big that’s a non-hybrid isn’t likely to do much better. Power? That 3.0 V6 is just about as powerful as most 2.0 turbos in non-performance applications. Throw in the lack of turbo lag and drive by wire lag,and it’s honestly not any worse.
The GMC pickup is about the same, sure, it makes less power, but the fuel economy isn’t any worse than my 2014 F150 with the 3.7 was, nor my 2008 4Runner with the 4.7, and while it has significantly less power, it’s also a hell of a lot lighter and lower to the ground. It’s also a wash.
1996 is new enough to have airbags, crumple zones, and ABS, that’s enough safety for me.
To each their own. Personally for safety alone I’d rather take a 2015 Altima over your ’96 Avalon:
https://www.carscoops.com/2021/11/nissan-altima-driver-somehow-survives-being-crushed-by-semi-truck/
Gets much better gas mileage too:
https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=35020&id=12899
Even a modern Pacifica get better mileage:
https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?action=sbs&id=35020&id=12899
Just upgrade the driver from OEM and you’re set!
To me, a lot of the point of auto enthusiasm is contradictory to objectivity. I couldn’t care less that a new Civic is faster than my 25 year old sports car, or gets better mileage than my old turbo diesel Benz, or has more safety and tech than my 560SEL. I reject those things in favor of character, charm, nostalgia, fun, etc. My cars are old, but they’re also known for being really good fucking cars. Appliances aren’t appealing.
Appliances aren’t appealing.
Speak for yourself. I for one like to get where I’m going without involving a tow truck.
Yeah people knock cars like the Prius, but it is “really fucking good” at starting every day and getting you where you need to go with minimal fuel costs.
Well you’re the guy who won’t move out of a passing lane if someone is speeding over the limit. So, your position on anything is questionable.
Try to stay on topic.
That’s why my old-ass daily is a Toyota. I’ve driven it 112+ miles per day, Monday-Friday, for the last year, with ZERO breakdowns that kept me from getting home (in fact, so far it’s been one power steering o-ring and one flat tire, I topped off the fluid and carried on for one, and I changed the other in the Home Depot parking lot).
Good for you. Other than a flat battery or tire my ’06 Honda and ’10 Mazda have never kept me from getting home either. I don’t expect batteries and tires count in this contest though.
I can understand your view, but appliances are very appealing for people who have 1 vehicle and need it to work. My appliance CRV is more appealing than my BMW was because it doesn’t throw an engine light everytime I drive. Different strokes, real auto enthusiasts know this.
This is totally fair. There is a place for appliance cars. My comment was directed to someone looking at vehicle purchase outside of the objectivity of buying an appliance.
Totally fair, one day I hope to be able to afford a non appliance car as well, one can dream
You can! In fact, you can buy a way more enjoyable enthusiast car for way less than the cheapest new appliance!
Most importantly, the avalon is 1-2k not 30k, and will likely go another 100k miles with not much more than a 4 wheel brake job.
Exactly. I paid damned near nothing for it. It gets comparable mileage to any new non-hybrid it’s size, it accelerates well enough for me (it does have 200 horsepower under the hood, after all), it stops just fine (factory 4-wheel discs with aftermarket ceramic pads), and the A/C blows 39 degree air out at me while I kick back in a seat that’s as comfy as a Lazy Boy recliner while I commute 112+ miles each weekday. If some jackass in Austin traffic hits it, no big loss. If a construction truck drops gravel on the highway in front of it? Oh well, it adds character. Something does finally wear out or break? Parts are INSANELY cheap for it. I paid $17 each for new CV axles from RockAuto, $4 each for new door handles, did brakes all the way around for just over $100, etc. No payments to make. Liability, uninsured motorist and roadside coverage so my insurance is a whopping $33 a month. ZERO concerns about depreciation because it’s already effectively worthless. It’s absolutely perfect for me.
I’m burning 600mi a week in a 3rd gen Avalon. Paid 3k, now has over 240k miles. So far I’ve done rear brakes and a rear wheel bearing. 4k total invested. Avg 31 ish mpg doing 70-80 to Detroit and back. Perfect 260hp commuter boat.
I wish I could do that but the amount of road salt here makes it almost impossible.
Panels, rockers, wheel arches etc are no big deal but when subframes, strut towers and other major structures let go, the cars are pretty much totaled.
Even 2000s cars are getting rare now, sadly very few 90s cars around anymore.
Mid 2000s Toyotas handle salt much better than most contemporary vehicles or newer. Highly recommend shopping or west or down south.
I think there’s a very wide gap in the definition of what a “used car” is.
If I buy a 2 year-old Camry instead of a brand-new Corolla, that’s one category of used-car-market. There’s another one above it, where people spend 60 grand on used AMGs, Ms, Hellcats, Ferraris, etc.
Just below the 2 year-olds is the murky middle, the 10k-20k dollar range that is filled with 3-10 year-old cars with odometers ranging from 10k all the way to 100k+.
Below that, the 5k-10k category is filled with newer cars in crappy condition and older cars in great condition.
And then at the bottom, the sub- 5k, is a mix of pretty decent bargains along with total basket cases that the seller is just dying to get rid of.
The used-car supply issues caused by the pandemic affect the top of the used car market, but not the bottom. The bottom of the market is actually pretty flush with good cars from the Dubya years, and I’ve seen a lot of great buys there lately.
You’ve summed it up perfectly. I stick around in the sub-5k market and the “used cars” referred to in articles like this might as well be from another world.
The sub 5k market is the sub 2k from pre COVID.
Whatever your idea of the proper used car price is, double that is probably correct today.
The supply issue of used cars was also in play during the 08 housing meltdown. When looking for a car for my niece in 2014 there was really nothing from 08-10 around. Maybe another couple of years and the current used market will return to reality.
Great choice on MF Doom. As for the used car market I don’t think it will ever be the same again. While EVs are still not the majority of new car purchases I think the percentage is high enough to cause friction between what is available used and folks who don’t want EVs. That will drive up ICE prices in the used market and keep the strong depreciation on EVs. There will be too many cars that people don’t want and too few that people do.
Lastly I have to ask @DavidTracy if he feels like he dodged a bullet leaving Jeep when he did(pun slightly intended) It seems like morale has got to be pretty low at stellantis these days.
is that Cox chart inflation-adjusted or in then-current $ value? My bet would be the latter, as it’d lead to a larger y-o-y disparity for visual impact. Without knowing that (and the linked Cox article doesn’t help clarify) it’s impossible to know how strongly one should react to the data.
MM …FOOD: gotta love an anagram.
To some extent people are getting smarter about trading car every few years too. The person who always traded in for a new one every year or two is probably keeping it a lot longer. Cars are getting pretty damn reliable these days, so dumping a car after 50 or 60K miles isn’t as important.
And there are plenty of older used cars. I’m currently looking for a 12-ish year-old Volvo, LOTS of them out there for fairly reasonable prices. People need to let go of thinking that older cars are inherently less reliable.
I bought a new car every other year for about 14 years. But I have not bought a new car since 2019. Not because I can’t afford one, but because the industry makes not a single damned car I have any interest in buying anymore. So I have bought very nice used examples of cars I like, most recently, a 2014 Mercedes E350 wagon in 2022.
I don’t even care if I have to put money into an older car – I do it cheerfully, the savings vs. buying new makes the money meaningless. Though given a choice, I would buy new and buy ordered to my spec every time. My best new car purchases were my two Euro-delivery BMWs. Still have the first one, an ’11 328i stickshift RWD wagon that I will probably never part with. But BMW in particular is dead to me with the crap they are shifting today.
So very, very true.
That E Class wagon was a great choice.
Your methodology about maintenance for an older car vs buying new is exactly mine.
It’s cheaper to keep an older car that you love well maintained than buy new, every single time.
Yes, to your point about people being smarter about trades:
I’m guessing that if you went for a lease in 2021 right before things went nuts your lease payout was way below the actual market value of the vehicle. Why would you buy something else for so much more when you can buy the car you have and know the history on the vehicle for so much less?
I’m not sure how much to give people credit on making a smart financial decision like that given how many people make such poor decisions most of the time, but to me that could be a major factor in why there are so few cars available now.
BYD will fix this, if allowed to.
“Are you seeing what I’m seeing in the used car market? Is it not as bad as it seems?”
What I’m seeing is a mix of sellers who will drop their prices because they are serious about selling.
And then there are other sellers who are still living in a fantasyland believing that pandemic pricing will last forever.
For example… there is this dealer who has reasonable/competitive/no-BS pricing for what they sell. As a result, they’re selling a 2020 Tesla Model S Long Range for just under $47K
https://www.autotrader.ca/a/tesla/model%20s/oakville/ontario/5_63126195_20230206141200707/
Then you have dipshits like this selling a 2016 Model S 90D with 50% more mileage for $55K
https://www.autotrader.ca/a/tesla/model%20s/stouffville/ontario/19_12736725_/
How can a seller believe his no-warranty car is worth an extra $8000 compared to a car that is 4 years newer, a better spec and with less mileage?
I’ll tell you… It’s an idiot seller who is living in a pandemic pricing fantasyland.
And some OEM car markers also have this problem… particularly Stellantis.
During the pandemic, they jacked up their MSRPs to sky-high fantasy levels. Now that the shortage is over, the crazy MSRPs remain and thus, their inventory is piling up because they’re clinging to their pandemic pricing fantasy.
I predict that in the coming months, more and more sellers are going to give in to reality and then you’ll see the used car market become more normal.
Hard for used cars to come down to historical prices if new cars have been marching up and up.
And lack of real base-model cars is immediately felt. Minimum trim packages are hardly unequipped.
Inflation alone means used car prices are going to go up a lot. Today’s dollars are smaller than yesterday’s.
As someone who is selling a decent used car, it certainly doesn’t feel like supply is low. I’ve had no real bites whatsoever. 2014 Hyundai Elantra GT with everything well sorted, 2000 miles on a remanufactured engine, new brakes and tires, full leather and pano roof. Absolutely everything works well. Been asking $8k and not getting even any lowball offers.
No offense, but the fact that you’re selling a car with pricey new parts only 2K after replacing the engine probably throws up red flags for most people.
I agree, looking at a 2014 with a new engine would worry me away
Its a Hyundai:
https://jalopnik.com/hyundai-finally-replaced-my-engine-millions-of-other-o-1851056899
OK that makes way more sense. I assume you’re putting that in your ad to sell it?
Sure:
2014 Hyundai Elantra GT, now with a new and maybe(?) improved engine!
Will this one it blow up too? Maybe, it IS a Hyundai after all. No worries though, this beauty comes with our own exclusive warranty*
Buy here, pay here, drive away today!
*Warranty requires driver to keep all fingers and toes crossed at all times while operating vehicle. Violation of these terms voids warranty.
That’s a little better than the VW warranty, which I believe requires an exorcism
Damn! I need to add that!
New brakes and tires are pricey?
Good ones are.
Are you putting “good” tires and brakes on a 10 yo Elantra though? Because even OEM was only “adequate”:
Nexen Premiere all-season tires (215/45-17). The tires’ contact patches are adequate and their profiles low, reducing sidewall flex, but these are a long way from Michelin PS2s or Pirelli P Zeros.
https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a15109989/2014-hyundai-elantra-gt-hatchback-automatic-test-review/
Even budget tires are going to be 600-ish these days, and if you’re paying a shop to do brakes, I often see them advertised for 4-500 per axle.
Tire Rack shows a set of Advanta HPZ-02 for just over half that.
https://www.tirerack.com/tires/tires.jsp?tireMake=Advanta&tireModel=HPZ-02&partnum=145WR7HPZ02XL&vehicleSearch=true&fromCompare1=yes&autoMake=Hyundai&autoYear=2014&autoModel=Elantra%20GT&autoModClar=
I’m sure there are even crappier tires that can be had for even less.
Brakes are $50 for a complete set of pads and labor to put those in is MAYBE an hour so unless they’re replacing the entire brake system $4-500 per axle is ludicrous.
cool. I’m not trying to argue about someone else’s car.
The car lasted 10 years and 90k miles on the first engine. That’s not Toyota reliability but it doesn’t seem like a huge stretch that you’d get at least 5-6 worry free years at this point.
Other cars I’m seeing in that price range have a lot more miles and have a lot more wear parts that need addressing.
I really wish I had sold it 2 years ago when Carvana was offering $14k.
Fair point. I DO like the look of the hatchback Elantra. Good luck with the sale.
And yes, I’m also kicking myself for not selling 2 years ago to Carvana, the value was like 3k more than I originally paid in 2019.
What’s the overall mileage?
Because there are other wear items besides the engine.
90k. Main wear parts would be clutch job in the next 50-60k and maybe struts at some point. Maybe some of the other steering and suspension components eventually.
It’s because everyone knows to stay away from Hyundais of that era due to the engine problems.
That’s not a car I’d touch with a 10 foot pole. The new engine in a sub-10 year old car is a huge red flag, in my opinion.
Maybe I should just take it off the ad. I’m not trying to sell to an enthusiast, just someone who wants a car for under $10k that will last them 4-5 years with just oil changes and tires. Sure, the engine died at 90k but even if it has the same issues we’re talking 5 years before it starts burning oil.
No, that would be scummy. You’re in the unfortunate position to have to disclose a material item that is detrimental to your product’s marketability. Your best bet is to just wait for someone who doesn’t care or sees it as a plus.
Yeah, it’s just funny to me that the remanufactured engine is considered a negative. If it had the original engine still it would be way riskier. These engines have known issues, but sometimes engines just die and having a relatively new engine seems like a plus rather than a negative.
Well that’s the thing that I think a lot of people consider: people avoid cars with a history of needing engines. None of my 5 vehicles are models where engine replacement is a remote risk with standard maintenance. I have a 2JZ and a 2UZ in 2 of my vehicles. Those vehicles are valuable because the engines are so friggin reliable. Same with my old Mercedes’. Why bother at all with a vehicle with a flawed-to-the-point- of- engine-replacement history when there are tons of available cars that aren’t? Folks will see it as “OK we got the new warranty engine, let’s punt this down the road while we still can”.
A new engine on a Hyundai doesn’t inspire confidence, are you really that surprised?
Tho it does eliminate a lot of worries as well.
I guess it just seems like a new engine is better than one you have no idea the condition it is in. There’s always gonna be a compromise when shopping for a $5-10k car.
In my mind, the new engine just tells me that it might fail as well, and if I’m lucky I get 90k or 10 years out of it like you did, that’s not a good bet to take when spending 5-10k. It has to be priced like they’re going to only get 90k out of it. They’re better off with a Corolla or Camry at that point. A new engine in a Hyundai just isn’t going to be the positive you may think it is, it’s not like a new clutch. We get burned by cars all the time, and sometimes we gotta take losses because of it, this will likely be the case for this car. And then like most people who’ve been burned by certain car companies, you stick it to them by never (and I mean never) buying from them again.
I mostly pay attention to the used market for 20+ year old vehicles and that segment has dropped very close to pre-COVID levels. Vehicles that went for $3k in 2019 went for $6k in 2021 then back to around $3k in 2024.
Except Miatas. They haven’t dropped back down. I sold my 95 in early 2020 for $3500, and that was the going rate at the time. Picked up my new one, a 96 this time, for freaking $9500, which is the going rate for good ones.
90s Miatas are having a resurgence and there’s quite a community surrounding them as I’m sure you’re aware. It’s unlikely anything directly comparable will be made again (yes, newer Miatas exist but they don’t quite match the originals) so I’m sure they will continue to hold that value if not increase further.
Agreed. They are now classic cars and the values reflect that. It’s crazy to me that a good condition Miata from 1990-2012 pretty much they are all close to the same price. Just depends on what generation you’re most interested in.
They are classic cars now. My ’74 Spitfire is worth 4X+ what it cost new at this point. Miatas will be no different.
Amusingly, the oldest Miata is now MUCH older than my Spitfire was when I bought it 28 years ago. I paid about the original price of the car when I bought it at 22 years old.
Any favorite Miata owner forums among the folks here? Considering getting one when I retire in a few years. I figure that may be more in the budget than getting another early 70’s BMW 2002. Still regret letting go of mine with the cracked head, but nowhere to keep it while I could get around to affording to fix it (and needing to afford something to drive to work).
I’m sure someone would know, but the Miata I owned was the Fiat 124 version. There is a very good forum for those. And if you like the modern ones, the Fiat is just as good a car for less money, and if you like “tuning” the turbo four is more amenable to that.
I really like NA Miatas, but I already have my Spitfire so no use for another old car that would do exactly the same thing.
Thanks! I’ll put that on the list of possible fun cars to buy.