Don’t let the EV doomers get you down, the market for electric cars in the United States isn’t shrinking. It’s just not growing very fast. And, sure, hybrids are way more popular and probably softened the demand for electric cars. That happened. But it doesn’t mean that people won’t buy a properly marketed electric car at a good price. Or, probably more accurately, it doesn’t mean that people won’t lease a properly marketed electric car at a good price.
There’s a lot of electric car news this morning to cover in The Morning Dump, including a stat that sort of surprised me: The Honda Prologue is already beating the Chevy Equinox EV and Blazer EV in terms of registrations. I’d expected this would happen, I just didn’t expect it to happen so soon, and it shows that there’s still pent-up demand in certain segments for electric cars.
China, though, remains the key player for electric cars, and there’s been a realization among automakers here in North America that partnering with a Chinese company on battery technology might cause significant headaches down the line. That’s not stopping the world’s biggest batterymaker from not-so-subtly hinting that it would build here if the Trump administration is cool with it. And while we’re on the topic of China, Chinese automaker Geely is starting to rationalize all its random brands.
‘These Numbers Don’t Point To Substantial EV Growth’
Closely tracking electric car sales is annoying because automakers like Tesla and GM only report sales on a quarterly basis, and even then those models aren’t always broken down. Thankfully, S&P Global Mobility can pull registration data by month and get a better glimpse into the market at a specific model level. The only downside to this approach is that there’s a serious lag, so we’re just getting September data.
Overall, it’s about what you’d expect. Both Rivian (possibly due to supply shortages) and Tesla (due to competition and maybe anti-Musk sentiment) are down, but the overall market was up about 1.3% year-over-year. Is this slipping because of hybrids? Yes.
As Automotive News points out:
“These numbers don’t point to substantial EV growth in the next five, 10 years unless things change,” said Tom Libby, an analyst at S&P Global Mobility.
The reelection of former President Donald Trump could take pressure off automakers to sell EVs in the short term if emissions standards are relaxed, Libby said, “even if the long-term trend toward lower emissions is inevitable.”
One key reason why recent EV growth has softened in the U.S. is the growing popularity of gasoline-electric hybrids by automakers such as Toyota and Honda, Libby said. And more brands are developing hybrid models in response to record consumer demand, he added.
That five-to-ten years line is rough, especially given that automakers will continue to produce and release all these electric cars they’ve already planned. Between Kia and Genesis, I’m already expecting a handful to come out at the LA Auto Show later this month. Without some sort of big, cheap offering and with the possibility that the Trump Administration reverses course on environmental issues I think the view is generally correct.
At the same time, I think it’s likely we’ll see more hybrids and that’ll perhaps help lower emissions across the board.
Honda Prologue Outsells Blazer EV, Lyriq EV, And Equinox EV
Earlier this year I remarked that a vehicle like the Honda Prologue could be an indicator that there are still pockets of demand for electric cars:
I think GM and Ford have worked hard trying to push their EVs, but the next traunch of people most inclined to buy the current generation of EVs and hybrids are probably looking to buy something from either Toyota or Honda. Toyota has great hybrids but a mediocre EV. Honda has good hybrids and now, it seems, a decent EV.
I’m really curious to watch Prologue sales. Given the current projections, it’s not likely that Honda will sell more than 50,000 of these in 2024, which puts it in the Mach-E territory. That’ll help juice the market, but it isn’t an overwhelming number. But if Honda can be a success with a perfectly fine EV I think it’ll show where the demand is. If it fails and spurs more hybrid growth, it’ll also show where the market is.
Either way, the Prologue is maybe the most important electric car of 2024.
September registration data from S&P Global Mobility, linked above from Automotive News shows some interesting findings. Here are the biggest-selling EVs that month as estimated by registrations:
- Tesla Model Y – 27,260
- Tesla Model 3 – 19,040
- Tesla Cybertruck – 4,278
- Hyundai Ioniq 5 – 4,240
- Ford Mustang Mach E – 4,180
- Honda Prologue – 4,116
- Chevrolet Equinox – 3,925
- Cadillac Lyriq – 2,723
- Chevrolet Blazer EV – 2,670
- Rivian R1S – 2,403
I feel a lot better about my prediction now. The Equinox and Prologue are both relatively new to the market so it’s not entirely possible to say both were fully on sale in September, but it does seem that way. Every other vehicle on this list was definitely fully on sale by September.
Most of the registrations of the non-Tesla vehicles are probably leases so I think comparing the Prologue to both the Blazer EV and Lyriq, which share a common platform with the Honda is fair. In particular, I think that the success of the Honda compared to the mostly identical Blazer EV is a big deal. The Blazer EV has been on sale for a while and should stand up to the Honda.
Why doesn’t it? I think the lack of CarPlay doesn’t help, but it’s probably just a brand thing. There are people who associate Honda with higher quality vehicles and like Hondas better. The fact that it’s a primarily GM-engineered vehicle doesn’t seem to bother consumers. Of course, the Honda is new to the market and there’s probably some pent-up demand from Honda diehards for a Honda EV, so we’ll have to see if this holds.
CATL Would Build A US Plant If Trump Is Cool With It
Mega Chinese batterymaker CATL has been the target of somewhat bipartisan resistance due to concerns over both security and the risk Chinese companies represent to the global industrial order. It’s probably why Ford has had issues building a JV plant with CATL in Michigan, for example.
Would a Trump presidency maybe pave the way for CATL to come here? Per Reuters, it’s not an impossibility:
CATL, the world’s top battery maker, will consider building a U.S. plant if President-elect Donald Trump opens the door to Chinese investment in the electric-vehicle supply chain, the company’s founder and chairman, Robin Zeng, told Reuters.
“Originally, when we wanted to invest in the U.S., the U.S. government said no,” the Chinese billionaire said in an interview last week. “For me, I’m really open-minded.”
It would surprise me absolutely zero if Trump was persuaded to make a deal that’s been blocked by Republicans on the ground that he’s bringing jobs here. Also, this interview is hilarious, including Zeng telling Elon Musk that Musk doesn’t know how to make a battery:
“We had a very big debate, and I showed him,” Zeng said. “He was silent. He doesn’t know how to make a battery. It’s about electrochemistry. He’s good for the chips, the software, the hardware, the mechanical things.”
Musk and Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Tuesday.
Zeng said he had also asked Musk about setting unrealistic timelines for the rollout of new vehicles or technologies at Tesla. He said Musk had told him that he wanted to motivate and focus Tesla staffers and that anything beyond a two-year time frame might as well be “infinity.”
“His problem is overpromising. I talked to him,” Zeng said. “Maybe something needs five years. But he says two years. I definitely asked him why. He told me he wanted to push people.”
This actually makes me appreciate the Musk philosophy of constantly overpromising a bit more.
What Is Geely Doing?
Geely Holding Group sits on top of a lot of brands: Zeekr, Lynk & Co., Volvo, Polestar, Smart, Lotus, Nash…
Does this make sense, even in China? Maybe not, so according to Bloomberg the company is going to try and streamline a bit:
Geely’s Zeekr Intelligent Technology Holding Ltd., which in May staged the biggest US listing by a China-based company in three years, will acquire a majority stake in Lynk & Co in a transaction valuing the latter EV maker at 18.33 billion yuan ($2.5 billion), according to a filing.
The integration will curtail some of the cross-competition within the Geely Group, which has been eclipsed the last few years by China’s BYD Co. despite Li having spent more than a decade snapping up recognizable international brands.
Geely also has a large stake in Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes, and owns LEVC, the company that makes the London Black Taxi.
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I still have not recovered from people trying to make Iggy Azalea a thing so when I heard this song from Wynne I was immediately skeptical. I think found out she’s from the Pacific Northwest and I flashed back to Macklemore on the cover of The Source trying to explain that he also thought it was kinda BS that he beat Kendrick Lamar for best rap album at The Grammys. Still, this is pretty good.
The Big Question
Will The Honda Prologue outsell the Blazer EV in Q4?
The Blazer EV? Yes. The Equinox EV? Maybe.
I think the Honda Prologue is going to be a hit. I saw one yesterday and it is honestly one of the, if not the, most normal-looking EVs on the road. It just looks like a nice new Honda. Ppl outside of “car culture” just are not aware that this is a Chevy. All ppl want the tech that GM is foolishly withholding. We’ll see, but I could see a lot of ppl going with this option!
A buddy of mine traded his F150 for one.
He bought it instead of the Lyriq and other GM equivalents because it has CarPlay.
He loves it.
Re the Honda question. I believe that it will outsell the Blazer EV provided they have production ramped up bigly, and no unforeseen manufacturing issues occur.
GM maybe an ok choice, but Honda has a 45+ year reputation of building a better car overall. Of course pricing is also a thing. GM has a history of cash on the hood, etc, so?
But the overall quality and known used resale values of Honda and Toyota lead me to believe that GM will have an uphill battle gaining market share. A bigly number of the purchasers grew up in the Japanese cars. That counts for something.
It also has the advantage of being Honda’s only EV.
While range anxiety is more of a concept than an actual problem, for many people, until more apartment and condo tenants can charge at home, it’s going to be a major drag on the market. Public chargers are a major PITA, especially if you need to rely on them, every few days. It’s also not much different from public transit. If it works, it can be a great alternative. But if it leaves you stranded, even once, it becomes a huge hurdle to overcome.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/AEO2023_Release_Presentation.pdf
Page 19. None of this should be a surprise.
My last electric bill in central MA was $0.45/kwh. I cant afford to electrify my cars or my heat with electricity being so expensive. (Although i am thinking of going to a hot water heat pump to shut off my boiler through the summer. The indirect is inconsistent for hot water temp.)
The best use case for EVs – both car and motorcycle – is small, decent commuters. Until the market starts serving those up, sales will remain at enthusiast levels.
The Bolt, E-Golf, Leaf, and Fiat 500e all exist but no one wants them because of the range anxiety, real or not, on top of American consumers preferring larger vehicles in any category. Honda has their Honda E in other markets and I can’t see that product doing well over here, either.
I agree, it’s the best use case and most logical vehicle but America is not the place where even ICE city cars make a ton of sense, from a business perspective.
All the cars you mention are way too expensive. They do not seem like a good value, to me.
That’s my issue as well. Small and decent needs to cost appropriately.
The Bolt has a range of 260 miles — that shouldn’t give most potential buyers range anxiety.
Is this range GM/Gov estimated?
Or real life? This is something that the public has learned.
Not to burned by estimated mileage figures.
Gas or Electric.
Yeah but it also has an abysmal 50kw ccs charger which is awful for road trips.
I just leased a Prologue for my wife, but I also have a 2016 E-Golf w/ only 80 miles of range. Its a great commuter for my use, but I also have access to free charging at my work so it does lessen the range anxiety some. But its a smooth, quiet, roomy and excellent handling car for $10k.
I just leased a 2024 Honda Prologue EX AWD on Tuesday. In the “mid size” CUV market there are very few offerings. The Ioniq, EV6, Mach E are all too small. We had a RAV4 that we were looking to upgrade into an EV and something slightly larger so the Equinox wouldn’t fit the bill either. The EV9 is awesome, but a little bigger than I wanted and the R1S are out of our budget. Tesla was never a consideration due to Elon.
So it really came down to the Blazer vs. Prologue. I grew up a diehard Ford guy, and could not get around buying a Chevy. I know the Prologue is all GM underneath, but I feel the Prologue is wrapped in a nicer more subtle suit. We love it so far.
We were originally going to wait until next summer, but with the impending Trump administration, we didn’t want to lose out on the $7,500 tax credit, so we moved our timeline up a bit. We got a great deal at $14k off MSRP.
You might have made the correct call! Reuters just reported that the new Admin is planning to kill the tax credit.
Yep, exactly what I was worried about. Wanna bet that somehow Tesla will qualify under a loop hole?
I’m not sure that they’d need to. At least not as much as every other company that is building at a loss.
Good point, I just don’t trust the Elon/Trump camp to not take advantage of it.
Is it just me and “my enemy from within” attitude, or does this shit seem to get more nuts with each passing hour, let alone each day?
Serious question here.
It’s like #45 all over again but with twice the crazy sauce this time.
God help us all. Once again, seriously? WTF?
Elon has been hoping EV subsidies will go away for years (ideally along with fossil fuel subsidies to level the playing field).
If they don’t have any major recalls then sales will probably continue as they are and sell more Prologues than Blazers, but doesn’t GM make money from Honda on Prologues too? So either way they’re probably ok with it.
My daily driver, 2015 Genesis, is getting a bit long in the tooth for my daily commute. So, I have started shopping. I test drove a Mach e and I loved it. Right now, it is my choice for my next car. I use my car 99% for daily commute of 70 miles, round trip. I can charge for free at my office. So, an electric car make sense for me.
I like the build quality and the fact it has Apple CarPlay. I also liked blue cruise. That was crazy to me as my first time testing it out.
I’m waiting for the 2025 since it comes with a heat pump. I don’t really need it too badly living in Nashville area but can’t hurt. And maybe if I don’t get the ’25, the ’24’s will have some excellent discounts.
I think Honda just had the timing better than GM, and they’re marketing it a heck of a lot more.
The Blazer had the stop sale like a month or two before the Prologue went on sale. Anyone researching it early on would have immediately seen a ton of articles on Blazer issues. It’s not really a secret the Prologue is GM underneath since it’s mentioned in every review, but it does afford it some degrees of separation from those news articles. I actually expected that all to count against the Prologue more than it has.
After the stop sale I almost get the feeling GM was almost scared to sell the Blazer EV. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen one in the wild, but I have seen a couple Prologues. I have seen an Equinox EV but that’s been out for less time. And for reference I’m in an area with a VinFast dealer so it’s not an electric-averse market.
And Honda dealers are probably just more prepared for that type of buyer than most Chevrolet dealers even though Chevy’s had an EV for sale for longer.
The Prologue thing is easy to understand. People trust Honda and the average customer has no idea it’s a GM product underneath. The Blazer, on the other hand, has had a ton of well publicized issues. It’s also hideous, whereas the Prologue just looks like a bloated CRV.
September registration data from S&P Global Mobility, linked above from Automotive News shows some interesting findings.
I’ll say they do. Peruse a bit farther down that chart and you’ll discover that VinFast put 531 cars into the hands of consumers in September, only narrowly missing out topping both Volvo or Porsche.
I think this is good evidence people will get into an EV even from a brand they’ve never heard of as long as the deal is good. The VF8 could be had on a $199/month deal for a while there as I recall. For a general public non-enthusiast type person that can be pretty compelling.
There was a recent study released that concludes that metal is the most intelligent genre of music. Thank you for helping to support this theory.
These are a pretty low bar to clear, lyrically.
Hey now, don’t be lumping country in there! There are plenty of great country songs, lyrically.
Country has such a strange dichotomy when it comes to quality. Some of the absolute best music I’ve ever heard fits under the country umbrella…but so does some of the absolute worst. It’s weird.
the later we call ‘tractor rap’…
I’ve also heard “tractor rock”, “bro country”, and “boyfriend country”.
My southern wife doesn’t mind it as much as I do. I’m more into red dirt, classic country, outlaw country, stuff like that. I also appreciate the folkier side as well, we’re big Kacey Musgraves fans.
Sometimes I feel like some of the ‘new country’ folk really would like to be rock/pop, but couldn’t make it. Evidently, country radio has a lower bar…ref. Beyonce new ‘country’ music. Gag.
I like the red dirt genre of country, I discovered that a few years ago.
My parents only listened to country in the car, so I grew up listening to Waylon, Garth, Dwight Yoakam, Alan Jackson, Alabama, Travis Tritt, etc in the 80s/90’s.
I do like some of the newer stuff, but a lot of it sounds like pop music to me.
Nm. I typeded slow-like.
You have that well-oiled, focus group-tested Nashville machine pumping out some slick pablum about Jesus and how great it is to be an alcoholic making the bad stuff.
But it’s also a genre where you really don’t need a huge budget to make something compelling – the only requirements are the artist and an acoustic guitar – so it can be more songwriter-focused than a lot of other genres. Meaning there is a huge potential for good stuff.
The same ingredients, wildly different potential.
Spot on. Then you also have the rare few that split the difference, like Hardy and especially Chris Stapleton.
I can find metal stuff that’s pretty low brow lyrically, too. But as a general rule, country is lyrical garbage. Red Solo Cup.
Are you telling me that “I cum blood” isn’t high art?
In terms of complexity it’s about on par with Big Green Tractor. But I genuinely want to know if there’s country music with names as ridiculous as anything Nile puts out
I can’t say I listen to a ton of Nile but on the rare occasions I’m in the mood for Egyptian themed technical death metal there’s only one place to go
Since some people have issues with facts, try an economic angle by discussing the value proposition of getting so many notes per minute in most subgenres. Just leave out Sunn0))) or we’ll be talking minutes per note.
Black Metal, Funeral Doom Metal, and Death Metal are my preferences.
Probably been written 1000 times this is a chicken or the egg thing we need charging infrastructure for people to wanna buy EV. We need EV buyers before we build charging infrastructure. It’s been sad over and over again.
I think we all know of a massive – though unused – factory complex that was built but never occupied by FOXCONN in Wisconsin that I’m sure CATL could just set up production in. Easy-peasy.
Great photo op. Could bring an upside down bible and some CS gas.
It seems like you said that you appreciate Musk lying to gullible employees and investors as a means of motivating them. If that’s a leader’s best tactic for motivating employees, then they are a shit leader.
Is it a lie if he openly says it in shareholder meetings and in a myriad of interviews?
Sort of on topic: I went on their website yesterday to look at Powerwalls, just out of curiosity. I went to the jobs page and there are all sorts of open positions all over the country (even a few in Hawaii). Anyway, the benefits, like $0 contribution medical/dental/vision among other things was a surprise. The jobs that showed pay range were pretty healthy as well. No real point to this part, just an obsevation.
Yes, Elon Musk routinely lies in shareholder meetings and interviews. It’s (one of the reasons) why he is occassionally sued by investors and charged with securities fraud.
I also have $0 health premiums and other nice benefits such as the fact that my CEO isn’t a bloviating Nazi. So that’s nice.
That is nice for you!
I also have $0 health premiums at work…cuz…my mfg employer doesnt offer any benefits 🙁
When timelines are always artificially shortened, that becomes the norm and ceases to be an effective motivator. A good leader could use that trick once in a while, but not as standard practice.
Jeez, her parents must be proud. Then again, the Kardashians are still around, so I guess there is plenty of shameless to pass around. Literally.
As far as the TBQ goes, since it’s basically a clone car, it boils down to a price war. Since the useful practicality is essentially the same, it’s just a monthly budget decision. At most, a “friends and family” discount decision. Neither have any caché.
A true toss up.
Clone car under the skin, but with a more subtle exterior and a better interior with android auto/carplay. Also not from a GM dealership, so maybe a better buying experience?
Maybe? I just don’t see infotainment as that big of a deal at that price point for quick trips to PTA meetings or Costco.
I’m in a bit of a different position as far as the dealership experience, as I get a GM Legacy discount. So, I walk in and ask for whatever, they order it or show one on the lot, and get me out the door quickly so they can move on to a margin deal.
I dunno. For car-as-appliance buyers, the infotainment interface might well be more important than moist other things, as it’s the part of the car that you spend the most time being involved with, and as been pointed out earlier, people really WANT that seamless experience of their phone continuing when they get into their transportation appliance to go to work or take the kids wherever. It would certainly push me into the Honda over the Blazer.
Totally fair.
In my case, I set it and forget it. I’m not a tinker-er when driving, and almost never touch my phone. I don’t txt in the car, and it is irritating to no end to talk on the phone when driving or when someone calls me when they are driving. I’ll put it on XM sports, comedy, or one music channel and leave the DJing to the programming gods. I don’t really care all that much.
Now, if there is a co-pilot, they can deal with all that tweaking in whichever way they want.
I like my car to pick up the podcast or audiobook I’ve been listening to, and for the nav to be the same as I was using to look up whatever restaurants I was looking into. I actually cancelled my XM, since I hadn’t used it since the time I had to have my phone screen replaced, and even then, the DJs and station breaks irritated the heck out of me. I think that I would be much more irritated if I had to coordinate my listening between the phone and the car, or gods forbid, have to pay for a data subscription for the car.
I can see that. I just don’t listen to things like that on my phone. I watch podcasts on the ol’ laptop and I would only do an audiobook on a road trip.
Speaking of which, I did a drive from Det to NYC and back and timed it so I could listen to the Tigers broadcast on XM while plowing through PA both ways. Total sanity savor when trudging through that snooze of a state.
Our local Chevy dealership is the embodiment of old school high pressure sales tactics and we absolutely weighed that into our decision on the Prologue vs Blazer.
I’m one of those 4116 Sept Prologue registrations – on a 36 mo lease. Interestingly, the Prologue Touring AWD was more out the door than a Blazer EV LT AWD – Blazer may have even been slightly more feature rich? But CarPlay matters for someone’s who’s been using it for 8 years (since our 2016 GTI). And yes, the dealership experience and brand experience mattered. We’ve had our 2015 Ody since new, 180K miles, still great. And the Prologue interior had more physical buttons, and just more ‘normal’ styling (not ridiculous retro-future vents and whatnot).
Only features I really probably miss that the Blazer EV LT offered were the infotainment view of the front facing camera and heated steering wheel. Otherwise, was just happier the Prologue was a Honda and I wasn’t going to have to teach myself or significant other a new infotainment system.
“CarPlay matters” So much this. Gonna be a huge “we messed up” moment for GM in 5 or so years.
CarPlay was not the deciding factor, but definitely was something that I couldn’t go without on a 2024 vehicle.
I 100% agree with all of this. The Blazers looks were not appealing, the interior was very busy. We ended up going with an EX AWD model and compared to the EV LT, we lost out of some features (leather, heated steering wheel, sunroof) but we just liked the Prologue better in terms of styling and interior.
We almost ended up with the EX AWD as well…but you can’t even install the roof rails on the EX that are available on Touring and Elite. I was ready to walk away, but our local Honda dealer just made it worth our while to move up to the Touring (added in equivalent MA MOR-EV $, threw in the crossbars).
We tried to get them to come down a bit on a Touring model as well… but couldn’t stomach the price difference. Hope you are liking your Prologue too! Which charging option did you select, we haven’t yet and I can’t decide which one is best.
If GM, Ford, or Stellantis made an aerodynamically efficient, inexpensive, 200+ mile range, mostly-analogue(no touch screen BS), sub-3,000 lb, rear-wheel-drive EV with a small battery pack(< 40 kWh LiFePO4), in practical subcompact hatchback form, with about 300 horsepower, and it came in at under $25k, they wouldn’t be able to keep them on the lots.
If they won’t offer this, let the damned Chinese in without tariffs and to hell with the Big 3: NO BAILOUTS.
With Tulsi Gabbard in charge of the intelligence services, there is no point in keeping Chinese spyware out of the country anyways.
As if American spyware is any better for us…
I prefer my cars free of spyware, regardless of origin. You can buy new Chinese-made EVs in China without spyware. It’s nearly impossible to buy new US-made ICE cars in the USA without spyware.
In no way do I believe this to be true. The Chinese govt has been installing spyware at the KERNEL level in China in chips for years. At one time when Intel refused to alter coding to sell computers in China, they were required to embed their chip in another govt supplied chip in order to sell. (Source, personal conversations with the then Chief Legal Council of Intel). Do you have a source for stating no spy ware?
Now, there is plenty of argument about what is worse, govt or private business spying.
I’d be surprised if Jason’s Chang-Li has a GPS in it. China has 60 mph-capable vehicles with a similar level of complexity and computers to it(basically chips are only in the controls and charger), but the car itself not being connected to the internet or with GPS in the interest of cost cutting. I’m aware of all chips having back doors built into them, but not all chips are internet connected, either. The Soliton 1 controller and BRUSA charger in my GT6 has chips galore, but there’s no GPS and the car itself is mostly analogue.
American spyware is not good but if you think it’s as bad as Chinese, Russian, etc. … I don’t know what to tell you.
I’m a privacy advocate, but the truth is that your data is mostly used in the US to market things to you. Not to indefinitely imprison and torture you. I’d count that as better.
Yet.
HA, I had that point in there and deleted it.
The UK is leading the charge in that department, lol.
Well, they need some of us have to go to work to generate the govt revenue, so guess that will keep some of us ‘free’.
In the USA, your data is used to accuse you as a suspect if a crime has been committed. Even though you may be innocent of said crime. This can get very expensive in terms of both money and time, but it’s make-work for the crooked, bloated “justice” system that has created a higher prison population both nominally and as a percentage of population than China, as well as a higher conviction rate…
I am sure we could spend the entire day discussing the US justice system which is underfunded, and the penal system, which is shamefully allowed to benefit for-profit enterprises. But until I start losing neighbors to midnight political raids, I will maintain that we live in a more just society than our Chinese and Russian friends.
Not to indefinitely imprison and torture you.
Not yet.
I don’t foresee any such vehicle being profitable, especially with what Inflation has been the past few years. The Bolt was 3680 pounds according to GM, had a ~260 mile range, and ~200hp at a 32k MSRP for 2022, which would be ~34,500 today. It ultimately got pretty dang close despite being FWD, but GM never made a profit on them. If they can do it and make it eligible for the full 7500 tax credit, I suspect that it could get close to the 25-30k sales price, which would be awfully compelling.
Yes a next gen Bolt is coming, and will no doubt have power, efficiency, and packaging gains, but given the price delta of EVs versus ICE/Hybrids when it comes to like-for-like specs, that set of requirements isn’t even possible in an ICE configuration while being profitable, much less as an EV. Time will tell.
The Bolt also had a drag coefficient of 0.31 when a design with a Cd of 0.16 is possible(see 1999 GM Precept) and had TWO recalls because poor design choices in the interest of cost cutting, which ended up costing them dearly. A more efficient design means you need less battery for the same range. The Bolt sacrificed efficiency to look like a mini CUV.
BYD makes the $11,400 Seagull with a 40 kWh pack. That is an indicator of what is possible. First world labor instead of slave labor would add $2,000-3,000 to the cost to make the car in similar production volume.
Using concept vehicles for drag coefficient is not at all a fair comparison to real world vehicles. Yes a 25 year old GM concept hit a 0.16, but it’s horribly unattractive if we’re being honest. Rear wheel spats are not something consumers want, and contribute significantly to drag in their own right. The EQS has a 0.20 Cd, but the styling has wildly suffered as a result of chasing drag reduction, and is a more streamlined sedan, something that is infinitely harder to hit with a traditional hatchback shape like your original comment calls for. None of this is to say this is impossible, simply that car design is a massive mix of optimizations and competing interests. Similarly, smaller cars have a harder time hitting more streamlined, idealized shapes due to packaging restrictions/requirements.
Seagull also has a CLTC rated range of 190 miles for the base pack and 252 for the upgraded 40 kWh pack, and CLTC is ~35% higher than EPA ratings on like-for-like cars, and EPA is generally 5-10% above realistic. This to say, I strongly doubt a Seagull will ever touch the 200mi real world range. Seagull also only has a 55kW motor, 40kW max DC charging, and most importantly, has not been federalized for US sale. Federalization is an extremely expensive process, and does add a legitimate cost to sale in US spec vehicles, and that’s assuming the car would not need any changes to pass, which I strongly doubt it the case. All of this to say, There’s more to bringing it to the US than just adding a few thousand to account for Labor. Even dealership or DTC sales channels are costly per vehicle.
The GM EV1 was a real-world vehicle with a 0.19 Cd value. It made concessions to styling instead of seeking ultimate efficiency, as described in “The Car That Could: The Inside Story Behind GM’s Revolutionary Elctric Vehicle” by Michael Shnayerson. If the goal is an inexpensive long-range EV affordable to working class Americans, styling absolutely has to take a back seat to efficiency with the current technology. And there’s nothing wrong with that: most modern cars are already ugly without focusing on aero, because they focus on brand zeitgeist and fads instead. A vehicle can be a functional hatchback without being a traditional hatchback shape. It can be more sedan-like instead. Long wheelbase(for a hachback), with a low ride height and a narrow body. This whole idea is about throwing tradition out the window in the interest of meeting MSRP and range goals while still having a vehicle that can turn a narrow profit margin. If you want the vehicle to sell, in spite of its styling, it has to offer the consumer something in return, which is why I recommend gifting it with a lot of horsepower, something that’s extremely cheap to do in an EV vs something basic hat may have under 100 horsepower. This isn’t a car that’s about appeasing a CEO that wants to push a bunch of fad styling cues, this is about giving the buyer maximum value for the dollar.
The Seagull is a lot less aerodynamically efficient than what is possible, but it does come in at 2,700 lbs with a 40 kWh battery. If the GM EV1 had a 40 kWh battery, it would have approached 250 miles range at 70 mph, so that battery size was mentioned along with the Seagull as a target to shoot for.
I’m well aware that meeting government regulations with a car design is extremely expensive, but you’d have nearly half of that $25k budget to work with left over to meet that.
Elon Musk himself said that he doesn’t want to build an inexpensive Tesla. It’s not that they can’t do it, it’s that they flat out refuse. That is why they are freaking out about Chinese EVs. There’s a massive gaping hole in the automobile market on the demand side, for inexpensive, quality-built, long-range EVs, that the Chinese are ready and willing to fill. If he domestic manufacturers offered such a vehicle, the sales of these vehicles they WILL cannibalize the sales of more profitable and more expensive vehicles. That is what is at issue. So they’re using he government to rig the market, and assure such an option is never going to be available.
Speaking of Tesla and the Gov, I have Bloomberg on right now and they just said that Reuters is reporting (from two sources) that the new Admin is planning to kill the $7500 credit.
So here we go!
Good. The credit is nothing but a subsidy for giant trucks and SUVs that very few can afford, and quite frankly are an ecological disaster playing out in real time. Most of them will be landfill fodder in 20 years. If the automakers are at all serious about EVs, they’re going to have to build inexpensive options of good quality which are easily repaired late in heir life, and for which load reduction will be a core focus in the interest of keeping the battery size down for acceptable range.
These oversized trucks/SUVs/CUVs are the wrong application for EV technology.
Yes This. I want my jeep and wife’s minivan to sit and just be used for our hobbies and we want a cheap little ev we can daily and run errands.
So buy a CPO Bolt?
maybe but used GM EVs and it is more a dream. spending 20K to save ware on our cars may not be the best use of money.
At least around here Honda is marketing the hell out of the Prologue including a $229 per month 36 mo/10k mi per year lease with only $2999 down. So maybe they are moving the metal but I doubt it is doing much for their bottom line.
I suspect even though you’re correct, it’s a lesser hit than GM is facing with their own Ultium platform discounts, given GM is on the hook for the billions of R&D dollars they won’t entirely see back, while Honda is probably only taking the hit on COGS and manufacturing, but getting the CAFE boost and CARB EV sales compliance they need. Ultimately seems like a good deal for Honda given they’re not ready to make the massive investment into EV technology yet.
Yeah I should have said it doesn’t directly contribute to their bottom line. Indirectly though I’m sure the CA ZEV credits are where the actual money is at, allowing them to sell more of their more profitable vehicles w/o buying credits. That lease number is mainly limited to states of Californication.
You beat me to it, Honda is really aggressive with the lease deals on the Prologue, every dealer around here has them front and center on their respective web sites. The GM dealers just have truck promos.
To be fair to GM dealers, their core customers only care about giant trucks or very cheap cars.
For what it’s worth, I’ve seen several Blazer EV’s, a few Equinox EV’s and many Lyriq’s, ZERO Prologues
You probably have seen a few – they don’t stand out that much.
No, trust me, I would notice, that’s the part of the spectrum I’m located in.
North Jersey reporting in – the Honda Prologues are showing up everywhere; Blazer EVs still a rarity.
Let us hope that blue states come to their senses and relax or cancel their mandates rather than doubling down in an effort to virtue signal their opposition to Republicans in Washington (at the expense of their own citizens of course).
With Republicans gaining majorities in the house and senate alongside the presidency, and politics being as divided as they are, it would lead me to believe this won’t happen. Blue states and their governors will want any wins/statements/symbols as they can squeeze out before midterms to try to claw back some seats come 2026.
I won’t comment on my political thoughts on the merits of any position/actions on either side, just what I see as statistically likely. That’s it’s own thought experiment, trying to talk about politics without being political.
I fear you are right, as hoping for sanity and genuine empathy for constituents seems to be in vain all around.
It’s all theater and we suffer for it.
Depends on whether the goal is short or long term empathy for said constituents, i.e. helping their wallet today or helping their ability to breathe clean air and not die because of extreme temperatures in the future.
I don’t know what the right answer is, but as a Californian who has lived here long enough to remember days when children and the elderly were told to stay indoors due to air pollution and seen air quality improve greatly over the years, I can (and have) absolutely see the benefit of the long play. How much that will hurt people in the short term is the question.
I think it’s both possible to want lower emissions and cleaner air, and also to believe that EV mandates are the worst (but most theatrical) way possible to achieve that.
I don’t disagree. Just saying that it’s easy to argue that said mandates ARE examples of empathy for constituents, but played out on a much larger scale.
I agree that much government action these days is virtue signaling and enemy punishment. I also believe that lowering the emissions and energy consumption of our vehicles should be a goal and it can be done with market incentives to allow people to make their own choices while capturing externalities like pollution, road wear, danger to others, and overall (rather than tailpipe) greenhouse gas emissions.
Mandating percentages of ZEVs is counterproductive. Today, they just don’t work for a large number of people. Taxing vehicle inefficiency (proxies weight, size, gas mileage, range per battery size) would be a better approach. Or, heaven forbid, creating a carbon tax that would drive companies to use the most planet friendly energy sources and individuals to weigh factors other than tonnage. In all cases, the revenue from these new “market adjustments” could be used to offset the regressive nature of energy taxes.
This is exactly where I’m at.
Totally agree. I am very pro the government creating market incentives to achieve policy goals for the greater good of society (which is like … what it’s for). But the autotmotive policies are so often a swing and a miss.