As an Elder Millennial, it’s always dangerous to try to use the jargon of the day. I hope I never sink so low that I try to explain how Norbert Reithofer rizzed up Baby Koji Sato. Still, I do enjoy the way the larger internet tends to create useful binaries (it’s so over/we’re so back) and I’m going to use one today to talk about General Motors. Is the automaker cooking or is it “cooked”?
The cooked/cooking dichotomy is like a year old at this point and I’m sure parts of the internet have moved on, which means it’s a perfect time to drive it into the ground. The Morning Dump today will start with GM, which has done quite well up to this point. It’s definitely cooking, though there’s a disagreement over how long that’ll last.
Amazon’s car sales program with Hyundai has not, to this point, delivered much. Is it cooked? We’ve noted many times that Stellantis definitely is cooked at the moment, and its plan for the future seems to be laying off workers. And, finally, the editors at Cox have a list of the automakers they think are cooking and I mostly agree, though there’s one big flaw in their analysis.
Skibidi. [Ed Note: I had to look that up, and I still don’t get it. -DT]
Analyst Downgrades GM Stocks Over ‘Earnings Headwinds’
So far this year, Tesla stock is up about 2.35%, though it’s mostly been underwater. General Motors stock, however, has climbed about 33% and has spent most of the year in positive territory. While Tesla is still way more valuable than GM from a market cap perspective, this might be a surprise to people who think Tesla stock only goes up.
If you regularly read TMD this isn’t a shock to you, as last year General Motors indicated that the company’s plan was to improve the stock price and would do so via stock buybacks and dividends. Since writing that, GM stock has gone up more than 80%. It’s a publicly traded company, so improving the stock price is generally a good thing and Barra et al deserve credit for successfully navigating a tough year and delivering a big increase.
Still, I expressed a lot of skepticism last year that this was ultimately the best long-term strategy, writing:
Yes, the company’s truck and SUV business is very profitable and I also think their new EVs look very good, but if I were a GM shareholder I’d want them to invest as much as possible in hybrids and fixing their Ultium production. It’s nice that GM will be profitable this year and that the strike is only going to cost about a billion dollars, but in what universe does GM not need every cent to survive a future with Chinese automakers expanding in Mexico and Tesla showing no signs of slowing down?
This isn’t so out there a view as Daniel Röska, Bernstein analyst and recent GM bull, has downgraded GM from “outperform” to “market perform” and set a price target down slightly to $53 (it’s currently trading at around $48 per share). Röska gives many reasons:
From a macro point of view, Roeska noted that continued inventory build in the US will lead to pricing discounts in 2025, impacting profitability. “We assume that discounts will need to increase as inventories are getting pretty high, currently standing at 70 days,” he wrote.
Meanwhile, GM’s EV ramp might not go as expected. GM’s 200,000 EV production target in North America for 2024 is likely beyond reach, Roeska wrote, and GM would have to quadruple sales in the final four months of the year to hit that goal.
All that sounds reasonable to me, as are his concerns over hybridization costs:
Roeska is concerned that the joint venture with Hyundai will require significant capital expenditures which will dent profits. “We expect the [hybrid] endeavor to require catch-up capex on hybrid models reducing the FCF [free cash flow] available to return to shareholders.”
Yeah, but what if GM-Hyundai brings back the LUV?
In this first view, GM will be fine, it just won’t be returning as much value to shareholders as it has in the past. Is there another view? Analysts at British bank HSBC set a higher share price target of $58. Why? Here is HSBC’s reasoning:
In a note devoted to US automakers, the broker refers to “resilient” demand, but also to sharply contrasting sales dynamics between the “Big Three”.
While Ford and GM saw their sales increase by 6% and 2% respectively over the summer period (July-August), those of Stellantis fell by 19%, notes the broker.
As far as GM is concerned, the strength of the results published for the second quarter should make up for weaker performance in the second half of the year, he points out, while revising downwards his forecasts for 2025 by 6% in view of a more difficult market environment.
The broad view is that 2025 may be a good year for sales if something weird doesn’t happen, but it’ll probably be tight for automaker profits. I don’t personally think GM is cooked, I think it’ll do well, but I don’t think if we fast forward another 10 months that GM will be up 80% again.
Amazon’s Car-Selling Thing Isn’t Working Out So Well
In theory, Amazon sells cars via a pilot program with Hyundai. In reality, it’s a lot more complicated.
The concept of using Amazon to sell cars makes sense as it already has an enormous number of customers who look to the company for help in buying everything from movies to a 55-gallon barrel of lube to help you rev your Onan (full disclosure, I did put in an Amazon affiliate link, which means if you buy a 55-gallon barrel of lube we might make a commission on it. I mostly did this for my own amusement).
Early reports of the service identified some problems:
And most of the new car market, made up of franchised dealers protected by tough state vehicle sales laws, hasn’t been able to mimic the click-and-buy purchase process consumers are increasingly able to get everywhere else.
So far, Amazon’s program is small, but dealers are watching. Some are skeptical that Amazon will be able to overcome the challenges that have stymied other companies.
That was in January, let’s check in on this courtesy of NADA CEO Mike Stanton during a panel at the Automotive News Congress yesterday:
“What I am hearing right now is that the dealers are frustrated,” Stanton said. “They’re not there yet with the agreement. It appears to be another digital retailing tool at the moment and probably not top tier.”
[…]
“They still haven’t set up a situation where the dealer can deal with multiple banks or work on trades, so I think more will come,” Stanton said.
Panelist Inga Maurer, senior partner with McKinsey & Co., cautioned the Amazon-Hyundai partnership carries risks for dealerships in terms of the data they must give up to participate.
“It’s important that dealers understand what they’re giving up for data and what it means down the road,” Maurer said. Amazon likely will use their customer data to market other products to them including parts purchases, she added.
I went to an Amazon page to look at a car and it was basically a decently nice configurator that then just sent you to a dealership. This isn’t to say that Amazon can’t or won’t figure it out. Amazon has figured out how to do a lot of things, including saving the last few seasons of The Expanse, for which I’ll be forever grateful. This is just to say that making cars is hard and selling them, in some ways, is even harder.
Stellantis Is Laying Off Workers
I was going to go a day without writing about Stellantis. I really was. There’s been plenty of it lately, but it turns out I just can’t quit you Stellantis.
Today is the news that Stellantis is laying off UAW workers in all sorts of places as it continues to fight with the union and plan for its uncertain future. This bit from the Detroit Free Press stuck out to me:
Stellantis Chief Financial Officer Natalie Knight told analysts Monday that the company intends to have 80% of “our supply” coming from “best-cost countries” in coming years, echoing a theme the automaker has been touting to investors this year.
Stellantis’ issues go well beyond its fight with the UAW, however. The company has been struggling with high inventories, lower sales in its crucial U.S. market and diminished profits, although it has remained profitable, according to its most recent earnings report.
What, exactly, is a “best-cost” country? Places like Morocco, India, and Brazil.
The Best Brands Right Now According To Cox Automotive
The nice folks over at Cox Automotive do a lot of analysis that I link to and I’m grateful to have access to it as it helps me explain to all of you how I think the automotive world works. I also appreciate that they’re willing to engage in a bit of schtick to get the point across, especially for something that’s a bit more qualitative than quantitative.
This week’s schtick is comparing the four best brands to college football teams. I take no issue with the brands they picked because, while I’ve had my issues with Subaru, they are an extremely popular carmaker with products people seem to love. Toyota and Honda are definitely at the top of the game and Chevrolet, with products like the Trax and still-popular trucks and SUVs, is doing a great job. Other than a lack of hybrids and the lack of a Camaro replacement, Chevy has an appealing lineup.
My issue is that they made Toyota the “Alabama” of automakers and Chevrolet the “Texas.” Here’s what they wrote:
Toyota is the Alabama Crimson Tide of the car business and a championship contender every year. They have some compelling new product launches, including the all-new Land Cruiser (which looks great), the new Tacoma and the 100% Hybrid Camry. Toyota continues to carry the highest blue-sky multiples in the industry, enjoys the lowest incentive spending per unit, and has the fastest days to sell! As always, they will be a tough team to beat.
My Texas Longhorns (Class of ’05) are #1 in the rankings, baby! Also, Toyota is literally based in Texas now. I think this is a massive oversight on the part of Cox Automotive, but I’m gonna let it slide because they called Subaru the “Notre Dame” of car brands and I think that’s definitely right because Notre Dame has a bunch of extremely loyal fans, gets way more attention than it deserves, and is usually kinda mid!
What I’m Listening To While Writing TMD
I decided I needed to blog a bit this morning to help out while we’re short-handed, so I tossed on Rage Against The Machine’s “Wake Up.” I am pumped.
The Big Question
Who is cooked right now and who is cooking?
“There’s been plenty of it lately, but it turns out I just can’t quit you Stellantis.”
Oh, I wouldn’t worry about that. Stellantis is about to quit you, and you, and you, and you…
GOOD. Actually investing in the business? Refocusing on a hot combustion powertrain that will sell well and is in demand? Listening to the market instead of blindly charging ahead on hype and reactionary short term ideas? If GM is doing this for real, that seems like a win to me. I’ll say GM is actually cooking here.
I’m pleased to see that you chose to link to vegan lube. It’s nice to be inclusive.
Hardigree is a better person than I am. I’d have used the scene from Fury with German soldiers and white phosphorus when it comes to cooking.
“…which means if you buy a 55-gallon barrel of lube we might make a commission on it. I mostly did this for my own amusement).”
And what do we mean by “mostly”
Seems to be more of a question for P. Diddy, although I’m not sure whether he has internet access at the moment…
I read that he and the FTX techbro are having quality time together now.
*Hits the subscribe and save button*
PARTAY!!!
As a chef I feel like I should have a better handle on this cooked/cooking business
Do you ever feel a little over cooked while cooking food? And was that food a little over cooked because you were not cooking that day?
I once worked in a casino kitchen that had all of the heating and air cornditioning hooked up incorrectly. It was supposed to run air over a heated or cooled water source- what they call a ‘swamp cooler’. The problem was that no one actually hooked it up to water, so the only thing that worked was the fan, and that thing essentially just pumped in forced air from the outside. The morning I walked in and it was snowing on the grill was probably the only time I’ve ever not felt overcooked while cooking
Laying people off and doing stock buybacks should be illegal. Corporate America is a piece of shit.
Profits are just the unpaid wages of the working class.
It’s fine.
It’s all fine.
It’s not the CEO’s fault you didn’t opt in to the employee buy-a-share program.
Lots of companies don’t even offer that.
Stellantis may have side effects such as depression and/or increased irritability. Decision making abilities may be affected. Stellantis may not be for everyone. Availability in certain markets is dependent on local regulation. Consult with a fiduciary prior to making any large scale financial decisions while under the influence of Stellantis.
I read this is the drug commercial narrative voice. Take your star.
Missed bleeding from wallet.
Here you go:
Adverse reactions include high blood pressure, bleeding from wallet and heart palpitations.
Exactly how it was intended!
QOTD.
You have found the essence of Stellantis.
I’d love to be able to configure a car online, have it manufactured, and then delivered to my house. Who needs a dealer? I want to pick my colors and options, and I don’t want to have to deal with smarmy salesmen.
I guess manufacturing each car to a custom spec is not feasible and never will be. Easier to just pump out fully-optioned silver cars.
You can (basically) do that with Tesla and Rivian.
This should absolutely be possible it just takes a few adjustments on all sides. Ones that I can think of that would have the smallest impact on the manufacturers (making it the most likely to happen) would be:
The problem is the dealers will have a fit. Tesla and Rivian can get away with it because they aren’t entrenched with dealers as the legacy OEMs are.
“I guess manufacturing each car to a custom spec is not feasible and never will be. Easier to just pump out fully-optioned silver cars.”
IIRC several years ago there was a James May hosted show where in one episode he toured the Mini factory. One of the things mentioned was despite pumping out an ungodly number of cars the option list and year to year changes were so varied they estimated no two cars put out had ever been identical.
So I’m pretty sure manufacturers COULD offer one off custom jobs if they could be bothered to do so.
I really don’t see why it isn’t feasible. An order is a sale most of the time. Hell, make the deposit larger if that what it takes to ensure people don’t back out.
I’d go put down $10k tomorrow at Toyota if they could tell me I’d get the Grand Highlander Hybrid I want in 3 months. It is when the dealers get involved that you feel like you can’t trust these guys to do anything but try to rip you off or sell the car out from under you. Anything but just deliver the deal they agreed to.
From a production perspective, what is the difference between building a purple loaded car that already has a buyer instead of a beige poverty spec model that you plan to force into some dealer’s inventory?
Logistically, how would it work? Are there a mix of dealers and online sales?
Tesla is all online, right? No dealers. Does Tesla sit and twiddle its thumbs until an order comes in? They certainly don’t for Cybertrucks. I think they are lighter on options than the other makes, so they can just make the various permutations, and it’ll work out.
How would it work for Ford? Just change up the assembly line to slide a custom on in there? Some dipshit in Florida wants an orange Mustang with a blue interior. How would they fit that car into the assembly line?
In the 60s, you could walk into Ford and ask for a Mustang order form just check boxes for engine, transmission, trim, paint, everything. I doubt modern manufacturing would ever allow that. It’s not profitable. They would need to change up the line for that sale. Not worth it.
BMW will build your car to spec. You do have to go a dealership to place the deposit and have the dealership confirm the build–which to me seems completely unnecessary, but dealerships gotta get their slice too, I guess. Anyhow I got the car I wanted with the options I wanted for MSRP within a reasonable time (couple of months).
My problem is the dealership is still in the mix, and who trusts a dealership? I don’t want my order sold out from under me. I don’t want the price to change despite what they wrote down 4 months ago. Just let me go on a website and click “order”.
Plenty of people will still want their car “today”, and go to a dealer to look through inventory. It won’t kill dealers.
I wonder how long it will take Stellantis to die at the rate they are currently going?
The song forever known as the Matrix into LOL
Stellantis needs to lay off the “executives” first
I am at work so I am a little cooked right now but I am not a chef and I do not really cook food at work so I am not cooking.
If I remember correctly, you’ve got to do the cooking by the book. You know you can’t be lazy.
Just don’t start cooking the books.
Thanks. That earworm will probably be sticking with me during my next hour long meeting at work. Just for that I ran that through the brainrot translator, Enjoy:
It’s a piece of cake to check your brakes; you’ve got to look for glazing.
Man, I forgot all about that RATM song. Used to blast that song in the day.
And is “cooking” really new? “Now we’re cooking” is a phrase I’ve heard for decades.
Any website where they just hand me over to a dealer is not “allowing me to buy online”.
Even with a site like Toyota SmartPath, I am sure that once I agree to buy a car for the price on the website, I am then still stuck dealing with the same dealer nonsense.
The price will change, they’ll try and add markup or pack the sticker with TruCoat and insist it has to be that way. Heaven forbid you have a trade. As long as that exists, it is not “easy” or anything like the direct selling manufacturers.
The idea of buying a car from a dealer, yet somehow giving Amazon a cut, is absolutely disgusting to me. I may not like dealers, but having Amazon as a middleman is the least appealing possible arrangement I can fathom.
I spent about 10 weeks in Asia this year, much of that time in China. It is hard to describe how far Chinese car manufacturers have come in the last five years. Every US, European and Japanese automaker needs to be looking at their portfolio and supply chain and thinking about how to improve features while lowering prices.
Much easier when you have a single point of control, vertical integration, and labour camps for those that don’t comply.
I have no interest in defending China’s labor practices or government. The reality though is they are creating genuinely nice cars and selling them for 30-40% less than their global equivalents. The established legacy brands and the upstarts like Tesla and Rivian need to be ready to compete.
I won’t dispute the quality at all, but they’re priced less because the Government enables them to do that. The onus is 100% on us to compete, and we should.
The whole labor camp thing is quite overblown in the US, where slavery is still legal for those who are imprisoned.
Slavery and near slavery is also rampant in high-labor industries that rely on undocumented labor. Our economy would collapse if they were all gone.
Also helps when you recognize western companies will modernize your domestic auto industry just to get an earnings jolt over 8 quarters.
Stellantis is overcooked. Like, dry as hell, please pass the giant gravy boat dry. Like the turkey from National Lampoons Christmas Vacation dry.
Glad to see they’re still doubling down on the premise of shifting as much production as possible overseas whilst losing market share in their most profitable market. Hmmmm, I wonder what brands have the most jingoistic customer base? Good freaking luck with that.
I mean, is there anybody more cooked than Stellantis right now? The plan to go with (sigh) “best cost” countries for manufacturing as opposed to any organized plan for creating a more desirable product mix either in terms of offerings or quality says everything you need to know about their priorities right now.
Hyundai/Kia is cooking. Genesis is making big inroads into the luxury market and they have a wide range of actually desirable cars. When the K4 hatch comes out next year I’m probably going to be buying a GT Line.
Fisker? Is Elio Motors still a thing, or did that overcooked husk already get composted?
Stellantis is extremely cooked, GM is the cockroach of the automotive industry and will never die, and the Japanese brands will likely continue to cook, except for Nissan, who has never not been cooked.
GM’s stock price glow up has been bussin, no cap. I’m a bit sus tho that the Fanum Tax increase proposed by Kai Cenat will leave even their most delulu stans shook. Perhaps a collab with Livvy Dunne and Baby Gronk in their ads will rizz their vibes?
I had a stroke trying to read this. Bravo.
This was a joy to read. Thank you.
did you use the brainrot translator for this
No, unfortunately
Bravo. Impressive work.Rizz. Big mog energy.Something something hawk tuah something?
I’m Kai Ryssdal for Marketplace. Let’s do the numbers.
I have never seen his name spelled out. That’s wild!
I had to ask Mr. Google how to spell it. He looks nothing like I thought he would and he’s 60 years old, which I would never have guessed from his voice.
Dang! Such a smooth voice, too. Much easier to listen to than standard programming on the station.
Very demure, very mindful of you.
…GET OFF MY LAWN
Like, totally tubular awesome ideas. Like, dealing with influencers, gag me with a spoon.
Am I doing this right?
You’re doing just fetch
Jeez, stop trying to make “fetch” happen already!
This comment sends me.
Is “brain rot” actually just hobo linguistics via telecommunications devices instead of handmade glyphs?
I think GM is now a financially stable corporation.
They can take a few big hits and still keep going long term.
Ford is a touch more vulnerable as they absorbed a lot when they chose not to take a bailout.
Stellantis, on the other hand…
As is typical with GM the last 75 years or so, anything they make with 8 cylinders is cooking, and anything they make with fewer is at least partially cooked.
Hey, the Trax is a super rare example of GM putting out a solid economy car!
Can’t really argue otherwise though.
It’s a little unfair, because stuff like the Trax and CT4-V now, or the 3800 sedans and Saturns earlier are exceptions.
But as a general rule going back decades it’s pretty solid.
The Trax looks good inside and out, and if they offered an AWD version I’d be willing to give it at least a test drive.
I think the only reason it’s cheaper than all the other small crossovers is it’s lack of AWD. It’s really just a compact economy wagon with a slight lift.
It also forces dealers to stock FWD cars in cold climates where otherwise, they’re genuinely impossible to find. I’m aware that most crossovers are technically available as FWD, but around here, they may as well not exist. I’d imagine if the Trax was 30k with AWD, everyone around here would just buy a Crosstrek instead.
I get it, but I hate it. It’s the only GM model that’s caught my eye in a LONG time, but I can’t buy one the way I’d want it.
Supposedly they sell a Silverado/Sienna with a 4 cylinder turbo, but every single one on the dealer lots around here has the V8 upgrade. I guess they know their audience.
Those 4-cylinder trucks are surprisingly plentiful in Texas. I’ve driven a couple, they’re okay, but I’d buy a V8 instead.
55 gallon drums of lube are very handy for ones own amusement.
Think of all the “oil changes” you can do!
Diddy is that you?
If I buy a $40,000 Hyundai on Amazon using my Prime Rewards Visa, will I get 5% cash back and a $1 reward toward select digital purchases if I choose Amazon Day delivery?
You can even have them leave it in the garage if you have Amazon Key!
If you have a 40k+ limit on your Amazon credit card give it a shot haha
I bought a Corolla Cross last year for cash, except for the $5,000 limit (dealer imposed) on my Discover card for 2% cash back. That’s only $100 but why not.
Your shopping experience will probably be better than most Hyundai/ Kia dealerships. You know the dealerships could compete by not making their salespeople so sleazy / ignorant about EV?
Made my day to see that Woody “let her cook” meme on the Autopian lol. 🙂