Say, when was the last time you drove a Cord, a Packard, an Auburn or a Nash? If you’re Jason, you’d probably say “two weeks ago,” but for the rest of us, the answer is likely never unless you’re a car collector. In America alone, the automotive landscape is littered with dozens of dead car brands from the past century, or ones that got absorbed into bigger entities that may not have survived themselves.
As we like to say around here, making cars is hard. That fact hasn’t changed even if the car brands of the past used internal combustion and the future might be fully electric. On today’s morning news roundup, we’ll look at the EV startup game as it stands almost midway into 2023; Volvo’s own EV delays; Elon Musk’s decision to step away from the top job at Twitter, sort of; and Mazda’s very high hopes for the CX-90.
And then it’s the weekend! Let me send you off in style.
The EV Startup Wars Are Like The Auto Industry’s Early Days
Before Tesla, the last major new U.S. automaker to emerge and survive long-term was Chrysler. That was in 1925. (Granted, it’s still too early to call Tesla’s survival “long-term” but we’re past the “Death Watch” phase of things.) The point is, the car market is a brutal and complicated one, full of challenges around capital, production, regulations, sales, competition and now things like software, batteries and autonomy. It’s hard!
Right now, you have a bunch of new startups in the EV space as well as legacy automakers trying to pivot in that direction while making their manufacturing experience and scale into an asset instead of a liability. Not everyone will survive this moment. The Washington Post likens it to the early 20th century, when cars were brand-new and countless brands fought for market share back when roads were barely a thing. Some of those brands got absorbed into bigger conglomerates like General Motors; others just fizzled out and died.
The Post’s point is that startups often burn cash until they’re profitable; that’s normal in any industry. But the new crop of EV startups are facing a weird economy, a very tight capital market and perhaps even founders who underestimated the costs involved. Here’s a summary of how tough things are:
On Monday, Lucid reported a more than $779 million loss in the first three months of 2023, compared with the more than $81 million loss it reported the same quarter last year. Its cash reserves dropped to $900 million, compared with the more than $1.7 billion reported at the end of 2022. The company also said that it planned to produce more than 10,000 vehicles — on the lower end of its previous guidance.
A day later, Fisker reported a $120 million loss for the first three months of 2023 and said it burned through $84 million in cash. The company cut this year’s production target to between 32,000 and 36,000, down from the 42,400 it previously forecast.
On Tuesday, Rivian reported losses of $1.3 billion for the first three months of this year. It is more liquid than its rivals, ending the quarter with about $11.2 billion in cash and equivalents.
Lordstown Motors, which builds an electric truck, said this month that it would pause production on its vehicles, noting in a filing that it may go bankrupt if it cannot find additional funding. Nikola, an electric truck maker, said it would also pause production after reported widening losses.
Dan Ives, a Wall Street analyst whose EV takes I generally like a lot, seems to be the most optimistic about Rivian so far:
Ives said clear winners will emerge besides Tesla, and despite the stumbles, Rivian and Lucid are still in a position for success. Rivian has the best potential to be a “mini Tesla-like ecosystem,” he said.
“There’s a lot of wood to chop to get there,” Ives added. And Wall Street is “tired of dog-eat-their-homework excuse[s] for missing production.”
Now, you may be thinking “Well, Tesla did it! So can these companies!” Yes and no. Even Musk today will admit Tesla’s success was predicated on a series of fortunate lightning strikes and that it nearly died a bunch of times in the 20 years it’s been around. Tesla’s the exception, not the rule.
Not all of these EV startups will make it, but I think we can safely say there’s a big gap between Rivian and, say, Lordstown.
Musk Finds A Twitter CEO, But Who Would Want That Job?
Now, before you get mad, yes, there’s a car angle here. While it’s certainly newsworthy in a general sense how the world’s second-richest man operates an inordinately powerful information platform, we’ve tried hard to resist covering the endless chaos around Musk’s court-ordered purchase of Twitter last year because not all of it is in The Autopian’s lane.
Here’s the thing: Musk is a relentless micromanager. He didn’t appoint someone to figure out Twitter’s future and just report to him directly. No, he got personally deep into the weeds on decisions around just about everything the platform does. He did the same at Tesla too after ousting its original co-founder. This is how he operates, for better or worse.
But like the rest of us, there are only so many hours in his day and he’s not getting any younger. Questions have arisen as to whether Musk’s eye is still on the ball at Tesla, the main source of his wealth, as well as SpaceX and his other companies. Tesla’s investors are actually furious at him—more than they’ve ever been publicly in the past—as the EV race gets more competitive and Tesla’s car lineup continues to age quickly and hinges future success on software updates more than anything else.
So if you’re a Tesla investor or fan, relief may be in sight as Musk announced the appointment of a new Twitter CEO: it may be NBCUniversal executive Linda Yaccarino, multiple outlets report today. Lest you think Musk is just throwing in the towel here, think again:
Excited to announce that I’ve hired a new CEO for X/Twitter. She will be starting in ~6 weeks!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) May 11, 2023
My role will transition to being exec chair & CTO, overseeing product, software & sysops.
So Twitter’s getting a new CEO. But Musk is still in charge of product, software, system operations, and technology—and also he owns the company. What kind of CEO role is that? Who the hell would want that job? Musk runs his companies like his own personal fiefdoms; he burned through a bunch of top executives in the 2000s until he made himself Tesla’s CEO. I’m far from convinced this move will free up Musk to “focus on” Tesla at a time when it needs fresh products to maintain its lead in the EV arms race.
And good luck to Yaccarino, if she gets the job. Lord knows she’ll need it.
Volvo Faces EV Delays Of Its Own
It’s far from a given that the legacy automakers will survive this century’s industry shakeups either. We’re seeing those challenges across the board, from labor fights to making EVs profitable at scale. And it’s a major pivot from the stuff they’ve done for about a century. You don’t reverse course on that overnight.
Similar to what we’ve seen with Volkswagen—but hopefully not as severe—Volvo is facing some software-related headaches with its new EX90 crossover. That’s a crucially important car, because it’s Volvo’s first modern entry into the EV era after one hell of a brand comeback in the 2010s. Built electric from the ground up and equipped with Lidar, it’s the future of the company.
Now production is being delayed until next year thanks to software challenges, Bloomberg reports. The same goes for its platform-mate, the Polestar 3:
Output of the EX90 is now expected to begin in the first half of 2024, Volvo said Thursday. The Sweden-based carmaker had previously said the car would start rolling off the line in the fourth quarter of 2023. The shares fell as much as 6.4% following the news.
Demand for the car remains high, according to a statement. Putting on the brakes for further work on the vehicle’s software will help ensure a quality experience for all customers, Volvo said.
Carmakers have had trouble aligning complex development and production schedules for future vehicles decked out with sophisticated digital offerings. Volkswagen AG has delayed key models like the Porsche Macan for at least two years because it couldn’t get the software ready on time. Earlier this week, EV startup Fisker Inc. cut its production forecast for this year as it struggles with software integration.
Here’s hoping Volvo gets it right.
Mazda Scrambles To Get The CX-90 Into Buyers’ Hands
No, not EX90. CX-90. The big three-row crossover that Mazda is making. (This is why we need to bring back car names!) It’s not just big, it’s a big deal; it’s the first wave of Mazda’s upmarket push with a new hybrid platform and lots of luxury-ish specs. This, friends, isn’t the beater Protegé you drove in college, it’s the new Mazda. The Japanese automaker is hoping for the same kind of boost the Telluride gave Kia a few years back.
That is, if it can get those cars into customer hands. That’s a problem, according to Automotive News:
A global shipping shortage is causing the Hiroshima-based automaker to scramble to secure enough sea transport to feed soaring demand for Mazda vehicles, especially its crossovers.
Mazda expects wholesale deliveries to jump 13 percent, or by 140,000 units, in the current fiscal year as it launches new nameplates such as the CX-90 and ramps up production.
About half of the projected increase is shipped out of Japan, incoming CEO Masahiro Moro said Friday.
But a combination of factors is putting a pinch on shipping logistics, he said.
During the pandemic, many ship companies decided to replace their fleets with more fuel-efficient vessels, and there is now a shortage of ships as new ones are being built.
Meanwhile, exploding auto exports from China are gobbling up space on available carriers. Last year, China exported about 3 million vehicles; this year exports could rise to 4 million, Moro said as Mazda announced its full fiscal-year financial results.
So basically, if you’re hoping for a CX-90, don’t be shocked if you encounter delays, unfortunately. This is an annoying headache for Mazda, which unlike the other Japanese automakers has a minimal production footprint outside of Japan so it’s wholly dependent on exports. It has a joint venture with Toyota in Alabama to make the CX-50 but production there has been incredibly slow thus far.
The good news, as that story notes, is that Mazda has some nice momentum right now. Profits were up 36% in 2022 compared to the previous year and the new CX-60 is selling well in Europe. Hopefully Mazda can execute on this pivot.
I drove the CX-90 PHEV recently. Let me know if you’re interested in a review there.
Your Turn
Which EV startup has what it takes? Who dies, and who gets absorbed by someone else?
I would love to read a review of the PHEV CX-90. And any other PHEVs you care to review.
Agree. A PHEV is probably my next purchase, and I’m interested in what PG has to say.
What about Canoo? I like the idea of van they’re making, and I like the styling – just a big pill but still interesting? Will they even ever get vehicles on the road?
I’m pulling for Canoo also. However, unless Alice Walton* steps in, they will probably go bankrupt this year. If they do go bankrupt, I hope Toyota or Honda buy the remains to accelerate their EV development.
*Alice Walton is a member of the Walmart Walton family. There are financial ties between her and Canoo currently. She could infuse a few billion to help get things moving again.
Lordstown Motors, which
buildsfiddles about with an electric truck. (there, FTFY)Saw my first Lucid the other day. I see Rivians all the time. They both make good but expensive vehicles that are getting serious competition from mainstream manufacturers. Without the Supercharger network advantage, I don’t know if either will make it.
Not to mention a dealer network that doesn’t really even exist.
dealer network is something Tesla has tried very hard to cancel out, Ford is trying to do the same, but realizes change is hard. Rivian is perhaps worse than tesla in that they really don’t have a mobile repair fleet (in Ford Transit Connects for Tesla), and they seem to be hard to purchase on line I hear, so yeah could be an issue.
Rivian could get bought up by Amazon if it fails, which I hope it doesn’t, but they at least have that option. I want Rivian and Lucid to succeed, so that we don’t have to support Tesla/Elon Musk.
Also, Rivian made the first EV that’s viable for commercial use, and they are Amazon delivery vans, which they ordered at least 100k over the nest few years.
see them all over my neighborhoods. kind of surprised the E-Transit made nearby are not more prevalent.
I think technically the first viable commercial vehicle nod goes to Workhorse, but then you have to cover all the other confusing aspects of that ongoing concern.
Somehow they seem to be expected to be fine near term, despite selling 150ish vehicles a year.
…is this where I start LEMME TELL YOU ABOUT A GOOD ELECTRIFIED VEHICLE and start beefing with Peter over the Lohner-Porsche again?
I’ll vote for a CX-90 PHEV review from you guys as well. I like how you guys approach PHEVs and the CX-90 seems like it could be a great family hauler for a lot of enthusiasts with little ones.
I’m very interested in a CX-90 PHEV review! We are current CX-9 owners and think the CX-90 could be a perfect next car for use, as most of our daily trips are short, but it’s also our road-trip car. I’m very curious about the Autopian take on this car.
Lance Stroll needs to buy lucid already and combine it with Aston Martin (or Geely buy them & combine them).
Yep back in the old days people complained about gas cars not having the range of a horse, lack of gas stations compared to oats and grass, early ICE cars could not pull a load like a team of horses and could not pull a loaded cart as far either. The lack of parts and mechanics compared to farriers etc. People demanded the ICE car infrastructure to be instantly the same as the 6000 year old horse infrastructure.
(just Friday snark)
An Amish man once told my father that a horse is better than a tractor because “If a horse breaks down, you can eat it”. He also offered us a hundred pounds of horse meat once…
Horses can make more horses too, tractors haven’t learned that trick…yet.
Thank you for not giving Tesla more free publicity by covering their latest price changes!
Always interested in PHEV reviews!
I keep thinking that Rivian and Lucid would be prime candidates for Toyota or Honda to pick up. Companies that are playing catch-up in the space and and could really use expertise and infrastructure to get there – I assume that the American companies make it easier to source American batteries. Hell Toyota’s new design language isn’t even far off of what Lucid is doing.
I read somewhere that Toyota is reverse engineering Teslas to understand how they are designed and manufactured. My guess is they’ll do the same with Rivian. Then Toyota can use use the strength of their mighty corporate machine and manufacture millions of e-Tacos to crush their competition (Insert evil laughter).
If Apple ever wants to seriously get into cars, buying Rivian and/or Lucid would be a very logical step. Both vehicles aesthetics fit seamlessly with Apple’s image.
I don’t see Toyota buying them, but I could see Honda or even Mazda. Lucid would give either Mazda or Acura some serious luxury cred. Rivian could put the very meh Ridgeline to bed or give Mazda its own truck line for the first time in, what, 30 years? 40?
I just did the math on the Q1 that Lucid had.
loss per hour $356,084.98
loss per minute $5,944.00
loss per second $99.00
How is Lucid supposed to make money only selling a sedan?
Man, they better find some of that lost money. My wife gets pissed at me when I lose a $20 bill.
“We lose money on every car we sell, but we make it up on volume!”
This may read as a doomer take, but I sincerely believe that most of the non-Tesla EV startups in the U.S. are likely to fail, including Rivian. While I don’t believe Tesla will “take over the automotive landscape” as some suggest, I think that they have enough staying power to survive, even if they continue to neglect their product lineup. As for the others? Things are different.
Tesla had a first mover advantage. Their only real competition in the U.S. in the beginning were plug-in hybrids and cars like the i3, Leaf, and Bolt. That’s different now; every mainstream global automaker is now either producing cars competitive with Teslas in price and features or has a bunch of them in the pipeline. I’d even argue that while the global market is going mostly full BEV long-term, there will temporarily be excess production/capacity in the next 5-10 years with all of these new models being released as it takes time for “normie” consumers to warm up to the market and costs to come down. Traditional manufacturers and Tesla are currently profitable enough to weather this storm, I’m not sure newer startups are. Tesla was buoyed by selling energy credits to ICE manufacturers. This market will increasingly dry up as traditional automakers transition to EVs. Tesla also benefited from a persistent low rate environment and record shattering equity markets for startups.
It was hard enough for Tesla to overcome the inherent disadvantages of being a startup in the capital intensive and hypercompetitive auto market even under those relatively ideal circumstances. With increased competition, higher costs of capital and reduced energy credit sales, I don’t see most other non-Tesla U.S. EV startups surviving by the end of the decade. Most will go bankrupt; the most desirable may be bought out by other automakers. Building cars is hard; it’s even harder as a startup. That is, unless you’ve got the full weight of the state behind you and have had to opportunity to steal a great deal of IP (China).
Rivian is the most compelling after Tesla, but Ford already has a competing BEV truck, GM isn’t far behind and Stellantis is making noise as well. I have doubts that they can ramp up existing production, let alone update its existing products as necessary and introduce new ones in a timely manner. It’s making a play for the fleet market (work vans) but so is everyone else. That will be a game of pure cost competitiveness and efficiency rather than selling shiny new expensive things to early adopters, which has been traditionally necessary to keep BEV startups afloat. I could be wrong (and definitely have been in the past), but that’s my prediction.
I hope Rivian makes it, and I think they will – but only by either cooperating with or getting swallowed by a larger company.
Lucid is very appealing to me (unlike Rivians; I have no interest in owning either of their current products even though I appreciate the design etc) but that is usually a death kiss for any company: I am a Suzuki aficionado (the cars), which is probably why they are no longer sold here; my other four favorite automotive brands are Lancia, Isuzu, Daihatsu, and Citroën. 🙁
Rivian, Lucid, and Tesla will remain in one form or another. Either as a going concern or a brand after they are bought by someone. All else will disappear completely. There will also be new entrants from China that remain to be named.
Also, Who wouldn’t want the twitter CEO job? Musk already torched it, it’s so damaged now that you can either be a hero as it rises from the ashes or you can be forgotten if it fails. Musk will always get credit for its destruction. The only downside is that you have to deal with Musk, which you know is a huge burden. But, some people like that sort of thing.
I guess if the compensation number is big enough, you just collect your giant pay day and then if your career is ruined afterward, you don’t care.
Your career won’t be ruined. Once you make it to that level, results don’t matter. You can do a shit job as CEO, get forced out with a payout in the millions, and then go on to do a shit job as CEO at another company.
Exhibit A: Bob Nardelli. Ran Home Depot into the ground only to receive a $210M severance package when they booted his ass. Only to be rewarded as CEO of newly-divorced Chrysler (to be fair, bankruptcy would’ve been imminent regardless of who was at the helm but he still did a shit job) and later the CEO of a gun manufacturer and a C-Suite position at Cerebrus. Estimated net worth of over $800M. Lol… “meritocracy”
Haha, Bob Nardelli is always my go-to for failing yet continuing to be hired as well.
This person gets it.
Typically yes, and as I noted below, I’ve always seen Bob Nardelli as the worst example of this.
But Musk is pretty toxic and seemingly childish. I could see him retaliating against someone who butted heads with him or “failed” to execute his brilliant plan for the company. On the flip side, if you are just his rubber stamp, I could see someone not wanting to give you a job either even if you are a “proven CEO with <insert executive speak buzz words here>”.
Man, I’m sorta desperate for a new job at this point and I still don’t have any desire to deal with Astro-Herb. Like, to the point of hard-noping out of any Tesla jobs posted locally. They’ve got some writing-adjacent/documentation roles open, but hard no. It’s a dealbreaker. I’ve been at deeply unpredictable companies before—goodness knows, journalism is full of them—and it’s a frickin’ drain wondering how the herbs in charge are going to make your job suck worse today and/or if you’re going to surprise-lose your job for ??? ???? reasons that have nothing to do with the quality of your work.
Musk has shown himself to be a Spanfeller-tier unpredictable herb. Maybe even sub-Spanfeller-tier. Worse. The only compliment I can even muster for ol’ Jimmy McAdblaster is “at least he doesn’t announce sweeping changes or post advertiser-nuking vitriol via poop-Tweet at 3 a.m.” I don’t need that drama in my life!
Marissa Meyer became CEO of a destroyed Yahoo! and somehow she managed to make it much worse. Her reputation is probably destroyed forever. She used to be in the news all the time, even in her Google days. Now? Crickets.
You failed to point out that even well established companies like ford who are supposedly acceptably good at leveraging commodities of scales pricing and assembly processing, also reported losses in the Billions, on EV’s. At some point the gov’t stimulus in the form of robbing from our tax dollars to prop up this business model needs to stop.
like a Gen Z failure to launch kid, at some point you have to pop the proverbial titty out the mouth and let the kid sink or swim without your assistance.
When do you think we should cut gov’t subsidies for the oil industry?
Yea that part always seems to get left out by the anti ev crowd.
Right now. Along with pretty much every other government subsidy. The government should not be picking winners and losers.
Same People. Thing is, nobody is getting a 7500 tax rebate for buying and ICE powered vehicle. If the government wants to prop up battery makers like they supposedly do for oil then let them do it the same way, not a government subsidized stimulus check.
Just because a bad thing has been going on for a while, why should more not-helpful things continue?
This software issue and to some extent the chip shortage is a great example of mission creep. Yes it’s hard to write good control and battery management software for an EV drivetrain, but when you insist on constantly chasing new categories of ‘features’ such as autonomy and in car entertainment gimmicks, your cars are going to be waiting a long time to ship.
It shoud be even easier for ICE vehicles. Engine management software is a known entity, don’t pile on more junk just to upsell.
Rivian and Lucid both seem to have better products than Tesla – but my guess is that they have no way of making their cars profitable. And they’re not different or better enough from the competition to be able to charge higher prices.
Nobody mentions polestar, but if you consider them a startup, I’d bet on them carving out some space for themselves
I’m going to go the opposite direction as most people here and say that Rivian, at least for consumer vehicles is dead in the water. The arrival of competitive truck and suv EVs from normal automakers came way too quickly for it to capture zeitgeist, volume, or brand prestige like Tesla. Tesla still to this day, has the best base platform for efficiency (even if it has many other flaws), and an inescapable gigantic advantage in the SC network. Tesla had 9 years headstart over before the competition got to even be as meh as the Bolt. It had 13 years before legitimate spec-sheet competitor to its models were available in the Taycan and Mach-E, and even then… there isn’t a single EV on the market today that doesn’t have a serious huge (potentially fatal) downside to someone cross-shopping. Be that range, or charging, or performance, or price at equivalent performance. Tesla’s attitude is a giant middle finger, but no one has delivered a ‘just better’ option yet. As much as I wish they did.
Once you are playing on the same field as the big boys, how many rich people would buy a Lucid over a Taycan or e-Tron, regardless that the Lucid is in everyway other than UI software a superior vehicle? Not many, and certainly not enough. In the US or Europe at least.
I think Chinese automakers will be the main new entrants in the next 10 years as they got through most of the teething pains already and can offer something that no US or european company can match (pricing).
I think they get bought by someone and the brand and technology lives. Agree on Chinese, we’ll see at least one brand over here in the next 5 years.
Thing is, the only Rivian Competition currently is the Lightning, and that is not that great of a vehicle. GM has yet to actually drop the Silverado and Tesla may or may not actually release the stupid moon truck. Rivian’s biggest hurdle right now is volume costs. the SUV should have been the leader, they need a sub 50K model, preferably a less rocket ship, more basic awd truck version of the little Rivian, and at this point they need a refresh on styling. If they survive, I would be surprised. But I think they have a far better chance than Fisker or Lucid, Even the Hummer from GMC seems to have the days numbered unless perhaps they build an H3 Sized one with completely removable tops and doors for the Jeep alternative crowd to try out.
The best thing for Rivian right now is that the Hummer and Lightning are both a size class or two bigger, and the other SUVs generally available are a size class smaller. Already though I think their market is being canabalized, and the problem is only going to get much much worse in the next few years as GM, VWG, Stellantis launch more products on both ends. Heck even Toyota isn’t going to stay on the sidelines for long. Honestly, I don’t even recognize the existence of the moon truck, and completely discount it as a factor. — Silverrado, Explorer, Ioniq 7, EV9, Wrangler, Wagoneer S, EQG, Tacoma all are expected in the next 18 months. Even if only 1/3 of those models happen, I think most of the R1S (and 1T) sales evaporate in the next 3 years.
From what I see on the roads around Silicon Valley, Lucid seems to be doing ok. I see lots of Tesla 3/Y, but folks shopping at the top-end of the market seem to be buying either a Lucid (if they want a luxury sedan), a Taycan (if they want performance), or an R1T/S or EQS SUV (if they want to sit up high). There are still a lot of Tesla S/X on the road, but I can’t remember the last time I saw one with paper plates and shiny paint.
It will be interesting to see if/when the cybertruck arrives, how the landscape changes. I still don’t want to believe that there’s a genuinely large market for those, and from a purely selfish point of view I hope it’s the vanity project that cuts Elon (and Tesla) down to size a bit, but I suspect I will be bitterly disappointed.
Not in silicon valley, but I saw my first lucid on the roads ever last week (I see probably 50 evs a day). On a flat bed. Not an auspicious sign.
Ok but you have to acknowledge that “from what I see on the roads around Silicon Valley” is a medium insane sample.
I think Rivian still has a real fighting chance, but its not a guarantee. However, I see more Rivians than I do Wagoneers where I live, by a large margin. I’m constantly amazed by the number of Rivians I see. But I have yet to see a Lucid sadly. I’m rooting for Lucid. I really hope they figure it out and find solvency. But I can very much see them becoming absorbed by a bigger player. Does FoMoCo have real luxury competitor right now?
Definitely interested in a review of the CX90 PHEV. Real world EV range. Fuel economy after you run down the EV range. Can I use the big battery for a “dog mode” and run HVAC without running the ICE.
If they offer that last one, it would get a test drive next weekend.
I think Lordstown Motors really has what it takes, as well as Faraday Future.
Seriously, though, the ones that can make it are the ones who can operate at a loss for some time and/or the ones that get absorbed by existing companies. Canoo might get absorbed by someone, Rivian might sell out to a big dog if their name continues to get attention, and Fisker will struggle to find a buyer unless they have some massive success selling Magnas. The Chinese companies might find a foothold over here and/or in Europe, and they have the backing to hold out as long as it takes.
1.) Let Twitter burn to the ground like it was 1666!
2.) Lordstown is on it’s way to the grave.
3.) Rivian will be bought by GM or Ford by the beginning of 2030s.
4.) Fisker EVs will be worth money at the next Pebble Beach in 2085.
It would be funny if Scout returns from the grave to be the all EV SUV that VW props it up long enough to be actually be profitable.
To state the obvious, Mazda is paying a dear price for not increasing USA production
Rivian is backed by Amazon.
Lucid is backed by Saudi Arabia.
Both of those have extremely deep pockets and can wait out some bad quarters. It would not surprise me in the least if 10 years from now, they are the only automakers standing that were founded after Tesla.
My pet theory is that Rivian will transition to only fleet vehicles, these consumer ones just are not ever going to work out.
Unless SA decides to buy thousands of cars for their own part of the world, Lucid can have all the money in the world and will never scale to be competitive.
My theory is not attempting to guess at the success of the companies, only their willingness and ability to withstand losses.
That said, I do think Lucid’s work on long range and efficiency will make them successful over the long run. If I was forced to buy an EV today, it would unquestionably be an Air.
As an EV owner, range and efficiency is irrelevant without the infrastructure to take advantage of it, which is where not only does Lucid not have any advantages over the compeitition, it (and almost everyone else) is laughably far behind the market leader.
Unfortunately. Since Lucid does have that advantage. They just can’t use it.
Conversely, the appeal of a 500 mile range is not needing to rely on public infrastructure at all.
If it was 500 hwy miles at 80 mpg, in the dead of winter…. sure. But 75MPH already stops that to 400, winter drops another 100… and then you are back to relying on it. And for a road trip you might be driving east-west into a 30mph headwind (which has happened more than once to me)….
I know my personal longest consistent journey is 720 miles each way (3 times a year). I need 3-5 stops depending on conditions in the Y, one particularly awful time took 6 stops. Unless Aptera can actually deliver a 1000 mile rated car, it will take a long long way to go before we can completely ignore public infrastructure at all.
Yes, agreed.
The scenario you lay out (500 miles at 80 mph in 0 degrees F) is exactly my threshold for buying an EV.
No one is there yet, but Lucid seems to be the only one trying for an actual long range as opposed to every legacy automaker putting out yet another 300 mile rated crossover.
How often do y’all take those long winter road trips? Would it make sense to own the EV and rent whatever vehicle is more suited to the road trip? Kind of like not daily driving a uhaul?
A few times each winter.
The answer is no, I have zero interest in renting or relying on anyone else for my travel needs. The upsides of an EV are not something I care too much about, and the downsides are too much to make it worth it right now. My opinion at least.
Yeah they’ve waited out dozens of bad quarters with Uber. Are they up to $50 billion in losses yet?